The Theodore Roosevelt has now returned to sea, and the final data offered by the Navy remains at 1,102 cases, with only one reported death. Presumably, additional deaths aboard the ship would qualify as a “significant change,” and thus we can assume that, while still tragic, only one person, 41-year-old Chief Petty Officer Charles Robert Thacker Jr., died of the virus. The Navy has not disclosed whether Thacker suffered from any underlying health conditions.Unfortunately, staying young is not an option. Staying healthy may not be either, although staying in shape is something most of us can do.
Doing some simple math, COVID-19 aboard the Theodore Roosevelt had a death rate of 0.09 percent, while the estimated death rate for the seasonal flu is 0.1 percent.
This data point offers incredibly useful insight into how COVID-19 affects a young and healthy population. Most enlisted sailors are under 30 years old.
A similarly low death rate has been seen on France’s Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, where more than 1,000 sailors contracted the virus but zero died. These death rates are even lower than estimates in a new CDC report, which estimates the death rate for people under 50 years old at only 0.05 percent.
The Ships at Sea
The nearly-forgotten virus exposes a threat to naval forces: what if a single case aboard could disable a major warship, even a fleet? Fortunately, that is not the case this time out.
No Help from Police in Raleigh
At the capital of my new home state, the police chief says that she will not put an officer in harm's way to protect your property from destruction. We have to understand, she says, that it's not just law enforcement that is racist: it's the whole society. The police chief is in favor of group punishment of Americans for our collective sins.
North Carolina law currently does not allow for the use of lethal force to protect property, either, so citizens protecting their own businesses are putting themselves in grave legal peril. For the moment, at least: I expect that after the election we may well have some new laws on that subject. Also, you might have trouble finding a jury to convict someone for protecting their businesses after the police chief formally disavowed any duty to (or interest in) such protection.
North Carolina law currently does not allow for the use of lethal force to protect property, either, so citizens protecting their own businesses are putting themselves in grave legal peril. For the moment, at least: I expect that after the election we may well have some new laws on that subject. Also, you might have trouble finding a jury to convict someone for protecting their businesses after the police chief formally disavowed any duty to (or interest in) such protection.
Armed Voluntold
You should probably be prepared to hear this.
If the police dispatcher tells you "Do what you have to do," what are you prepared to do? You're a citizen. You have the right to keep and bear arms, and a duty to protect the common peace and to uphold the republic.
Some of you took oaths to the Constitution, but probably all of you said the Pledge of Allegiance at some time in your life. Did you mean it?
If the police dispatcher tells you "Do what you have to do," what are you prepared to do? You're a citizen. You have the right to keep and bear arms, and a duty to protect the common peace and to uphold the republic.
Some of you took oaths to the Constitution, but probably all of you said the Pledge of Allegiance at some time in your life. Did you mean it?
The Issue of the Day: Anarchists and Police Reform
Ah, the Russians again. It's almost nostalgic, especially since once again there are no actual Russians.
They're not less dangerous for being loose; the IRA was organized loosely in cells, just because it made them nearly impossible to finally break. You could shut down a cell, maybe get at two others connected to the one you broke, but there were always more.
I do take the point that there are serious issues in need of real reform, especially in terms of the relationship of the police to the community. I've written about that often, but here is a post that gets (in a calm and non-aggressive way) at what I think is the heart of the problem. Here is another post aimed at anarchists who want to protect marginalized communities. Here is a proposal for replacing professional police with volunteer citizen units. Here is a piece on why professional police tend to be non-accountable to the public more than armed volunteers.
“I’m not reading the intelligence today, or these days — but based on my experience, this is right out of the Russian playbook,” Rice, who served as national-security adviser to president Obama, said in a CNN interview on Sunday. “But we cannot allow the extremists, the foreign actors, to distract from the real problems we have in this country that are longstanding, centuries old, and need to be addressed responsibly.”These aren't 'little green men.' They're organizations that have been gathering loose armies of indoctrinated college kids for decades, and training them to think and act like Communists. Most of these people are not foreigners, although some of the funding for this (again, loose) network may be from abroad.
They're not less dangerous for being loose; the IRA was organized loosely in cells, just because it made them nearly impossible to finally break. You could shut down a cell, maybe get at two others connected to the one you broke, but there were always more.
I do take the point that there are serious issues in need of real reform, especially in terms of the relationship of the police to the community. I've written about that often, but here is a post that gets (in a calm and non-aggressive way) at what I think is the heart of the problem. Here is another post aimed at anarchists who want to protect marginalized communities. Here is a proposal for replacing professional police with volunteer citizen units. Here is a piece on why professional police tend to be non-accountable to the public more than armed volunteers.
The High Feast of Pentecost
WHEN Arthur held his Round Table most plenour, it fortuned that he commanded that the high feast of Pentecost should be holden at a city and a castle, the which in those days was called Kynke Kenadonne, upon the sands that marched nigh Wales. So ever the king had a custom that at the feast of Pentecost in especial, afore other feasts in the year, he would not go that day to meat until he had heard or seen of a great marvel. And for that custom all manner of strange adventures came before Arthur as at that feast before all other feasts. And so Sir Gawaine, a little tofore noon of the day of Pentecost, espied at a window three men upon horseback, and a dwarf on foot, and so the three men alighted, and the dwarf kept their horses, and one of the three men was higher than the other twain by a foot and an half. Then Sir Gawaine went unto the king and said, Sir, go to your meat, for here at the hand come strange adventures.The Quest for the Holy Grail began on Pentecost, and it was also the day when every year that King Arthur would have all his knights re-swear their oaths.
The king established all his knights, and gave them that were of lands not rich, he gave them lands, and charged them never to do outrageousity nor murder, and always to flee treason; also, by no mean to be cruel, but to give mercy unto him that asketh mercy, upon pain of forfeiture of their worship and lordship of King Arthur for evermore; and always to do ladies, damosels, and gentlewomen succor upon pain of death. Also, that no man take no battles in a wrongful quarrel for no law, ne for no world’s goods. Unto this were all the knights sworn of the Table Round, both old and young. And every year were they sworn at the high feast of Pentecost.In Malory's day, such oaths marked out the duty of a knight; in our day, the duty of a citizen. We now are the ones with the right and the duty to keep and bear arms, and the duty to decide what is treason and by whom.
It may well be that this year more than any year we have to consider carefully what that duty entails.
“Police Erupt in Violence Nationwide”
What’d you think you were paying them to do, Slate?
Longtime readers know that I have long held a dire view of American policing; I’d like to see all SWAT-type units disbanded, all military weaponry reassigned, and the police move back to a more traditional “peace officer” rather than “law enforcement” model. Certainly the police in Minneapolis behaved disgracefully, and many others have over the years. There’s a lot to criticize.
But come on. They could have been clearing streets with fire all weekend. Overall the response has been remarkably restrained.
The ongoing protests following the killing of George Floyd were caught up in violence again on Saturday, as police all over the country tear-gassed protesters, drove vehicles through crowds, opened fire with nonlethal rounds on journalists or people on their own property, and in at least one instance, pushed over an elderly man who was walking away with a cane.“At least one instance.” But probably more, right? Cops were likely hunting for opportunities to shove old people down stairs, too.
Longtime readers know that I have long held a dire view of American policing; I’d like to see all SWAT-type units disbanded, all military weaponry reassigned, and the police move back to a more traditional “peace officer” rather than “law enforcement” model. Certainly the police in Minneapolis behaved disgracefully, and many others have over the years. There’s a lot to criticize.
But come on. They could have been clearing streets with fire all weekend. Overall the response has been remarkably restrained.
Home delivery favorites, lockdown-style
We haven't ordered any home-delivery meals during the lockdown, mostly because practically no one around here will deliver to our location in the boonies. It's interesting to see what's trending in different states. I confess I had never heard of "Bubble Tea," a favorite in three states. Apparently it's an iced tea-based drink with milk and tapioca pearls, sort of milk-shakey. Spam musubi also was a new one on me, as were boo buns (sweetened bread rolls). Poke bowls (sushi salad) look good, but I've never encountered one.
Everything else on this map is something I'd seriously consider ordering if I were in a city where it was available and I was stuck in a hotel room or something, without room service, which is more and more often the case these days. Hamburgers, chicken wings, Asian food of various sorts, sure.
Crawdads were a Texas favorite, though not with us. I mean, I like crawdads, but it wouldn't occur to me to order them for home delivery.
Everything else on this map is something I'd seriously consider ordering if I were in a city where it was available and I was stuck in a hotel room or something, without room service, which is more and more often the case these days. Hamburgers, chicken wings, Asian food of various sorts, sure.
Crawdads were a Texas favorite, though not with us. I mean, I like crawdads, but it wouldn't occur to me to order them for home delivery.
All depends what you're angry about
Protest the lockdown? Expect to be arrested, because no matter how angry you are, safety first.
Protest the murder of George Floyd? Expect to be coddled, because we understand how angry you are. Also because we don't want you to burn the city down, which we can be pretty sure those anti-lockdown types won't do.
If DeBlasio wants to make it 100% clear it's about the control, not about public health, he's doing it right.
Protest the murder of George Floyd? Expect to be coddled, because we understand how angry you are. Also because we don't want you to burn the city down, which we can be pretty sure those anti-lockdown types won't do.
If DeBlasio wants to make it 100% clear it's about the control, not about public health, he's doing it right.
Riding Free
We may have fewer things under our control than we’d prefer, but not none. Here are some of the things I managed make happen today.
This breakfast of beef ribs I started to make happen the afternoon before so they could slow roast all night. Finished under the broiler with butter to give a nice crust. Fresh guacamole, aged chili.
Lady Luck saddled up.
Mushroom found along the Blue Ridge Parkway.
Lone Bald Overlook.
UPDATE:
Stone sculpture of a mushroom. The base stone was quite challenging, but I finally managed to lift and carry it.
Minneapolis goes down the tubes
And Los Angeles, Columbus, Louisville, New York City, Atlanta, Charlotte are trying to follow.
Free Americans
So the other night we saw the video with the guys who came down to protect protests and ended up preventing looting. At one point one says “If it was more than just four of us, we could go stop” looting.
However, the video only shows two.
Up the militia. Supporting each other’s natural rights, life, liberty, and property, without regard to the narrative that we ought to be defined by our differences. When the police fled and the state failed, free Americans together did right.
However, the video only shows two.
Up the militia. Supporting each other’s natural rights, life, liberty, and property, without regard to the narrative that we ought to be defined by our differences. When the police fled and the state failed, free Americans together did right.
Twitter is . . . oh, you know already
"Looters will be shot" is glorifying violence and must be screened from a delicate public.
Minneapolis is . . . oh, you know already.
Minneapolis is . . . oh, you know already.
Word Has Gotten Around
So that tobacco store that didn’t get burned down last night like everything else, because the two “rednecks” guarded it with rifles? The community appears to have learned the lesson.
Is Such A Thing Even Possible?
A new study suggests that the authoritarian personality type can sometimes be found on the left.
On the upside, replicating this finding shouldn’t be a problem.
H/t: Titiana McGrath.
On the upside, replicating this finding shouldn’t be a problem.
H/t: Titiana McGrath.
Bill of Rights Suspended by 9th Circuit
This is unacceptable.
Meanwhile in Maryland, a local government has banned the Eucharist.
The "constitutional standards that would normally govern our review of a Free Exercise claim should not be applied," wrote the two judges in the majority opinion.It’s hardly a suicide pact to allow low risk people to choose to attend services given that the fatality rate is apparently under one percent. Most won’t choose to go anyway. Less burdensome options like education have already persuaded most people of the wisdom of that.
"We're dealing here with a highly contagious and often fatal disease for which there presently is no known cure. In the words of Justice Robert Jackson, if a '(c)ourt does not temper its doctrinaire logic with a little practical wisdom, it will convert the constitutional Bill of Rights into a suicide pact,'" according to the opinion.
Meanwhile in Maryland, a local government has banned the Eucharist.
Another Gunfighter Ballad
This ballad is highly implausible on many points historically, but it's very much fitting the cowboy culture of the 1950s Westerns -- especially on television. It's a nice piece anyway.
Rapier vs. Katana
This is a South Korean school playing with a Japanese vs. HEMA martial art match, first at 4/5ths speed and later at full speed.
I'll give you an interpretive hint: this match is going to be rapier all day. The rapier is better steel, it is longer, and it is deadly at the point. The katana has to work mostly on slashing motions that require the shorter blade to use a longer part of the overall blade length to generate killing force. The rapier guy taps his wrist a few times to indicate contact, but he's got a basket hilt that will have limited the force the katana can deliver to his wrists: he's indicating cuts. His blows are deadly penetrating stabs.
Watch how he holds the center through the whole match, his opponent always driven to the periphery. It's objectively a better weapon, a better style.
The rapier is not a joke, even though in our movie culture it's generally treated as a toy, and the katana (following Japanese cinema) as if it were a magic weapon.
It is possible to beat a longer stabbing weapon with a shorter slashing one, but it requires going outside the rules of formal fencing.
I'll give you an interpretive hint: this match is going to be rapier all day. The rapier is better steel, it is longer, and it is deadly at the point. The katana has to work mostly on slashing motions that require the shorter blade to use a longer part of the overall blade length to generate killing force. The rapier guy taps his wrist a few times to indicate contact, but he's got a basket hilt that will have limited the force the katana can deliver to his wrists: he's indicating cuts. His blows are deadly penetrating stabs.
Watch how he holds the center through the whole match, his opponent always driven to the periphery. It's objectively a better weapon, a better style.
The rapier is not a joke, even though in our movie culture it's generally treated as a toy, and the katana (following Japanese cinema) as if it were a magic weapon.
It is possible to beat a longer stabbing weapon with a shorter slashing one, but it requires going outside the rules of formal fencing.
Rednecks with AR-15s, Or, "Free Americans"
What are they doing at the riots? Supporting the protests but also protecting stores from being looted, if you take them at their word. Worth watching.
Fake News Today
BB: Time Magazine names Karen ‘Person of the Year.’
Karen will be joining Bill Clinton, Bill Gates, Bill Anders, and Hitler as one of the most important and newsworthy people of the last 100 years.
So Not Super Professional?
An analysis of the Crossfire Hurricane basis.
In a normal, legitimate FBI Electronic Communication, or EC, there would be a "To" and a "From" line. The Crossfire Hurricane EC has only a "From" line; it is from a part of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division whose contact is listed as Peter Strzok. The EC was drafted also by Peter Strzok. And, finally, it was approved by Peter Strzok. Essentially, it is a document created by Peter Strzok, approved by Peter Strzok, and sent from Peter Strzok to Peter Strzok.Keep in mind as you read the rest that the Flynn investigation, Crossfire Razor, was a spin-off of this one. Also, that it cleared him.
On that basis alone, the document is an absurdity, violative of all FBI protocols and, therefore, invalid on its face. An agent cannot approve his or her own case; that would make a mockery of the oversight designed to protect Americans. Yet, for this document, Peter Strzok was pitcher, catcher, batter and umpire.
Crisis in NYC
If the Big Apple doesn't get buckets of federal tax dollars, they'll have to make painful changes in how they do things.
Why don't they just raise taxes on the rich?
It's best for them if they don't get the money. It's awful to think of the anguish they'd have to endure, considering how they despise the source of the largesse.
Why don't they just raise taxes on the rich?
It's best for them if they don't get the money. It's awful to think of the anguish they'd have to endure, considering how they despise the source of the largesse.
Men in space
If the weather holds, we may have a private manned space launch today:
Wednesday’s launch ... will be the first time a commercially built vehicle carries NASA astronauts into orbit and the first time that SpaceX attempts to ferry human passengers to the space station.
Witnesses
They just straight up killed this guy. If there had been no store video, we'd have been left with the official account:
There were lots of witnesses, but it's the video that will be believed.
"After he got out, he physically resisted officers,” police spokesman John Elder told reporters early Tuesday. “Officers were able to get the suspect into handcuffs and officers noticed that the man was going into medical distress."Yeah, no. You can't see anything in the video that looks like resisting arrest, and the guy died on the pavement with a knee on his neck for about 8 minutes. He was pronounced dead at the hospital, but he was dead on the pavement. That's what they meant by noticing that he was going into medical distress, as if it were a coincidence: oh, look, he's not breathing for some reason! Pro tip: a red flag was his repeated cries of "I can't breathe," before he got really still and quiet.
There were lots of witnesses, but it's the video that will be believed.
Crossing the Rubicon- It's a bad idea
They know what they should not do, and do it anyway. Power corrupts, and also blinds- both those with it, and too often, those subject to it.
"It’s telling that the same people who won’t allow a single Trump executive order to go into effect without running it past judge after judge after judge to test for “constitutionality” have suspended basic rights for a majority of Americans based on dubious proclamations from mayors and governors."
Civility Again
Col. Kurt:
That said, this Memorial Day weekend they decided to run a column accusing the US military of "celebrating white supremacism." I'm not the least bit interested in their opinions on civility right now.
“Civility is important,” we barbarians are duly informed, because of course it is. But we have noticed, over time, that in reality it only seems to be important when we are the ones breaching it. For us, it is open season.I'm a very civil person, and people are nice to me too. I assume they're responding to my good manners and friendly nature, and not to the big beard or the knife on my belt. Still, one way or the other, I generally have only civil conversations. It's a nice way to live.
That said, this Memorial Day weekend they decided to run a column accusing the US military of "celebrating white supremacism." I'm not the least bit interested in their opinions on civility right now.
Georgia Shooting Update
When last we spoke about the Georgia shooting of Ahmaud Arbery, I said I didn't think the two men involved would end up being convicted of anything at trial, given that the local DA put out a statement explaining their theory that no crime was committed. Now I think there won't be a trial -- because the state and Federal government are moving to put extraordinary pressures that look likely to draw a plea bargain.
Not just the father and son but the third man, who was filming the incident, have been arrested and charged with felony murder. Felony murder in Georgia means that you were committing a felony -- any felony will do -- and someone got killed as a result of it. This means you don't really have to prove intent to murder someone, which is important in this case because the facts appear to show that the gun went off during a struggle. You might get an involuntary manslaughter charge out of that. Mr. Hines seemed to think so, and 'type b' does allow an otherwise lawful act to be a crime, so even if the DA was right that no crime was committed, you could perhaps persuade a jury. It would be hard to get even a second degree murder charge. But Felony Murder might fly, assuming you can prove a felony, because you don't have to prove the killing was an intentional murder.
However, the trick to Felony Murder is that it is a capital charge. In Georgia, prosecutors who bring a capital charge get to ask for a "Death Qualified" jury. This is a jury that is self-selected for the willingness to ask for the death penalty if the charge is proven. Death Qualified juries return not just harsher sentencing recommendations compared to other juries, they also convict more often on any charges.
Now the penalty for type-b Involuntary Manslaughter is a misdemeanor penalty, i.e., up to a year in jail. Felony Murder's penalty is death, for both father and son and the guy who ran down the street with his phone out. Clearly the intention is to use the threat of death for you and your son to squeeze out a plea bargain to some other sort of murder charge from the father, which then doesn't have to be proven in court because he'd have admitted to it.
They've still got good odds, though, because the DA's office cleared them after investigation -- right? Well, it turns out, the FBI has decided to investigate the officials who didn't arrest them. Prosecutors would have a field day in court with the claims that the DA's office was such a hotbed of racism that it was being investigated for Federal hate crimes. Such charges aren't likely to be successfully brought against government officials acting in their official capacity, especially since they didn't take any actions. They can be entertained long enough to get to the plea bargain, though, as a threat to the accused.
Ultimately our justice system is badly broken and extremely warped. I don't know what justice actually looks like in this case, but I know it doesn't look like sentencing both a man and his son to death. Even leveling threats like that is indefensible.
Justice also doesn't look like the kind of railroad they're setting up to avoid having to prove a case in court.
Not just the father and son but the third man, who was filming the incident, have been arrested and charged with felony murder. Felony murder in Georgia means that you were committing a felony -- any felony will do -- and someone got killed as a result of it. This means you don't really have to prove intent to murder someone, which is important in this case because the facts appear to show that the gun went off during a struggle. You might get an involuntary manslaughter charge out of that. Mr. Hines seemed to think so, and 'type b' does allow an otherwise lawful act to be a crime, so even if the DA was right that no crime was committed, you could perhaps persuade a jury. It would be hard to get even a second degree murder charge. But Felony Murder might fly, assuming you can prove a felony, because you don't have to prove the killing was an intentional murder.
However, the trick to Felony Murder is that it is a capital charge. In Georgia, prosecutors who bring a capital charge get to ask for a "Death Qualified" jury. This is a jury that is self-selected for the willingness to ask for the death penalty if the charge is proven. Death Qualified juries return not just harsher sentencing recommendations compared to other juries, they also convict more often on any charges.
Now the penalty for type-b Involuntary Manslaughter is a misdemeanor penalty, i.e., up to a year in jail. Felony Murder's penalty is death, for both father and son and the guy who ran down the street with his phone out. Clearly the intention is to use the threat of death for you and your son to squeeze out a plea bargain to some other sort of murder charge from the father, which then doesn't have to be proven in court because he'd have admitted to it.
They've still got good odds, though, because the DA's office cleared them after investigation -- right? Well, it turns out, the FBI has decided to investigate the officials who didn't arrest them. Prosecutors would have a field day in court with the claims that the DA's office was such a hotbed of racism that it was being investigated for Federal hate crimes. Such charges aren't likely to be successfully brought against government officials acting in their official capacity, especially since they didn't take any actions. They can be entertained long enough to get to the plea bargain, though, as a threat to the accused.
Ultimately our justice system is badly broken and extremely warped. I don't know what justice actually looks like in this case, but I know it doesn't look like sentencing both a man and his son to death. Even leveling threats like that is indefensible.
Justice also doesn't look like the kind of railroad they're setting up to avoid having to prove a case in court.
Real Violence
Maybe this is what Ms. Cooper was expecting from the police? If so, there’s a problem, though I am not convinced the problem is reducible to racism.
Racism Transcendent
Christian Cooper (no relation), a Black man and a bird-watcher, asked Amy to leash her dog. Dogs must be leashed in Central Park from 9am to 9pm, but in the Ramble they must be leashed at all times. Christian later said that he had been worried about the delicate ecosystem of The Ramble and the way in which the dog might affect the birds.White Violence!
Amy, clearly offended, responded by saying that she was going to call the police on him. The video Christian took ended up online, and almost instantly went viral.
In response to the video, many on social media began to speculate and insist that Amy Cooper was a Trump supporter and a member of the “MAGA” movement.
However, campaign contribution information — with donations to Democrats such as Barack Obama, Pete Buttigieg, and John Kerry — leaked online earlier today appeared to suggest that Amy actually identifies as a liberal. This matters, because in this political era, during this most critical US presidential election, it is necessary that we understand and recognize that white violence transcends party lines and political ideology.
She clearly is a racist, though, and a privileged woman who thinks the police exist to put other people in their place for her.
Masculinity and the Expert Left
A man called Tom Nichols, apparently chiefly famous for a work on the value of expertise, wrote a piece this weekend wondering why American working-class men accept Trump in spite of Trump's failure to live up to the standards of American working-class manhood.
I'll let you read it rather than summarize it. It's not unreasonable to ask "Is Trump honorable?" "Is Trump courageous?" "Is Trump a man who respects women?" Does he keep his word? Can you rely on him?
Rather I'd like to note something else by way of explanation. Along the way, Nichols cites an American Psychological Association piece on the manhood values these men hold, generally built around how these men are failing and dying off, and one section of which is entitled, "Manhood Gets in the Way." It's not just analysis, it's a general attack on the values they hold -- an assertion that the values are a problem, that the whole system needs to be undermined by 'more educated men' and 'men in positions of power.' Psychologists should work against such manhood; the educational resources of the state should work to undermine these traditional values; power and persuasion alike should be used to unmake these men. For their own alleged good, of course: they'll be 'psychologically healthier' once they give up their ideals and conform to the preferred gender norms.
That's really the answer to the question. These men like Donald Trump not because he's one of them -- he's not one of them. He's not working class, he's a billionaire. He's not a manly man, but he's not from their class. He is, however, on their side. He respects them. He wants them to succeed. He wants them to have good jobs at better pay, and to make American workers like them the envy of the world.
By the same token, for all his flaws, Donald Trump genuinely loves America like they do. He really wants America to be great. He is not willing to trade American greatness for personal gain. He's attached to America, and wants to see her flourish. In that, too, he is on the American worker's side.
The picture might be different if others could manage to be on America's side in the same way, and to respect the values of the American working man rather than bending themselves to undermining those values and that way of life. The whole 'expert' class seems to be united against them, though; it seems to have decided that the world is tired of men like those, and would be better off without them. And so these men find in Donald Trump not just a friend, but practically their only friend in all the halls of power.
That's why they accept him in spite of his flaws. He accepts them, respects them, supports them and their way of life the best that he can. Who else does?
I'll let you read it rather than summarize it. It's not unreasonable to ask "Is Trump honorable?" "Is Trump courageous?" "Is Trump a man who respects women?" Does he keep his word? Can you rely on him?
Rather I'd like to note something else by way of explanation. Along the way, Nichols cites an American Psychological Association piece on the manhood values these men hold, generally built around how these men are failing and dying off, and one section of which is entitled, "Manhood Gets in the Way." It's not just analysis, it's a general attack on the values they hold -- an assertion that the values are a problem, that the whole system needs to be undermined by 'more educated men' and 'men in positions of power.' Psychologists should work against such manhood; the educational resources of the state should work to undermine these traditional values; power and persuasion alike should be used to unmake these men. For their own alleged good, of course: they'll be 'psychologically healthier' once they give up their ideals and conform to the preferred gender norms.
That's really the answer to the question. These men like Donald Trump not because he's one of them -- he's not one of them. He's not working class, he's a billionaire. He's not a manly man, but he's not from their class. He is, however, on their side. He respects them. He wants them to succeed. He wants them to have good jobs at better pay, and to make American workers like them the envy of the world.
By the same token, for all his flaws, Donald Trump genuinely loves America like they do. He really wants America to be great. He is not willing to trade American greatness for personal gain. He's attached to America, and wants to see her flourish. In that, too, he is on the American worker's side.
The picture might be different if others could manage to be on America's side in the same way, and to respect the values of the American working man rather than bending themselves to undermining those values and that way of life. The whole 'expert' class seems to be united against them, though; it seems to have decided that the world is tired of men like those, and would be better off without them. And so these men find in Donald Trump not just a friend, but practically their only friend in all the halls of power.
That's why they accept him in spite of his flaws. He accepts them, respects them, supports them and their way of life the best that he can. Who else does?
Electric Trucks
I have a friend who builds electric motorcycles as a hobby. He's a smart guy, a logician by training who works on the design of the LSAT as well as its logical reasoning questions. He's been bending my ear about the advantages of electric vehicles for years.
My objections began as a collection of practical points and frankly aesthetic ones: I like my motorcycle to rumble, for example. Still, there are also practical reasons why electric vehicles aren't as wise a choice for long-distance work.
That said, he's convinced me that there are many practical arguments in favor of electrics, too. There are some areas where they are positively superior to gasoline engines:
Charging times and range remain practical considerations. Still, we may be approaching the point at which electric vehicles become viable on the long highway and not just in the city.
My objections began as a collection of practical points and frankly aesthetic ones: I like my motorcycle to rumble, for example. Still, there are also practical reasons why electric vehicles aren't as wise a choice for long-distance work.
That said, he's convinced me that there are many practical arguments in favor of electrics, too. There are some areas where they are positively superior to gasoline engines:
... it can get out of a jam, such as the mud, because it has a precise, computer-controlled motor built into each wheel. The software slows down the wheels, preventing slippage, giving the vehicle better traction than a traditional pickup, Burns said....Electric trucks also have a big advantage in towing, which is that they can deliver peak torque effectively immediately.
"So a typical gasoline drive-train has well over 1,000 parts. When you look at it that way it’s very prehistoric, it’s essentially a Model T," Burns said. "We have four moving parts."
...
Typically, when a pickup's bed is empty, it doesn’t drive well because the engine is in the front and the weight is there, Burns said. In the case of the Endurance, the center of gravity is low and the in-wheel motors put weight on the four corners.
"This is a car without a gear, without a transmission and a drive axle, so there is nothing down the middle of the car. The only four moving parts are the wheels," Burns said. "The result is the software that’s driving that and the suspension that’s driving it means you get a pickup that drives like a sports car.”
He said it has performed well in crash tests, too. But Burns knows there are naysayers who don't believe traditional pickup owners will want an electric version, so why enter a truck war you can't win? He believes he will ultimately win it.
"After hundreds of years of refinement and countless hours of engineering, a pickup truck only gets about 17 mpg and it’s not going to get any better," Burns said. "So it really needs a reset. We’re not coming out with a 10% better pickup truck, we’re coming out with a 500% better pickup truck and it’s safer, it’s quieter and it’s fun to drive and it costs less to own.”
Charging times and range remain practical considerations. Still, we may be approaching the point at which electric vehicles become viable on the long highway and not just in the city.
Rolling Thunder
It turns out last year was the final ride, unless they reconstitute in future years. One year ago today I was there for what organizers billed as the last one. Joel was there too, though we didn’t happen to link up.
Memorial Day Ride
Taking Douglas’ suggestion, I took a ride today. This is Bear Lake.
Looking East
Looking South
Bear Lake is near the mountain town of Cashiers, where I stopped for lunch at the newly-reopened (for outdoor seating only) Ugly Dog Pub. This was the first meal I’ve had seated at a restaurant in months.
After lunch came the ride home, for an evening cookout.
Local hero
We may never know what motivated this young man, Adam Salem Alsahi, but I'll bet we've got a good idea what motivated the MP, so kudos to her this Memorial Day. Two days ago, a Syrian-born naturalized American citizen with jihadist connections was killed trying to crash the gate of a naval base in Corpus Christi:
Great printing job on the dog's muzzle:
The active duty U.S. Navy military police woman at the Ocean Drive gate has probably checked thousands of IDs and allowed access to thousands of authorized people at NAS Corpus Christi.
But yesterday morning, at barely the first light of day, a terrorist tried to get past her. That terrorist, Adam Salem Alsahli (a Syrian born U.S. citizen), picked the wrong gate guard to try to get past. He must’ve thought that all he would have to do is lift the pistol off of his lap, point it at the gate guard (while she looked him in the face) shoot her point blank in the chest and then be able to drive on to the base and use his assault rifle and shotgun to kill as many people as he could.
He sure was wrong!
She took the bullet dead center in her chest, but that happens to be the area of the bullet resistant Kevlar vest, which has a steel, ceramic-coated plate over center mass to protect the heart and vital organs.
Yes, no doubt the impact knocked her down to the floor, but she got right back up and hit the emergency button that activated a very strong pop up barricade, which stopped and disabled the terrorist’s vehicle. Then, as he was getting his assault rifle out of his car, she shot him to death.In case he was wearing a vest as well, I hope she used a head-shot. The local press did not oblige with details.
Great printing job on the dog's muzzle:
Have a Grateful Memorial Day
When someone says "Have a happy Memorial Day", it always sounds a little odd. I saw "Have a <i>grateful</i> Memorial Day" recently, and thought that was perfect.
One reason we erect statues of great historical figures is out of gratitude for their service. One fine example, and that seems especially fitting for the Hall on Memorial Day is this one-
The Darby Legacy Monument, for BGen William O. Darby, of Darby's Rangers, KIA 30 April 1945 in Torbole, Italy.
The monument features a statue in the form of the classic equestrian statue, but with a twist- General Darby is astride an iron horse instead of one of flesh and bone. Unique and noble.
So, have a grateful Memorial Day, everyone. If you're lucky enough to have a steed- either steel or flesh- perhaps go for a ride to celebrate their memories.
One reason we erect statues of great historical figures is out of gratitude for their service. One fine example, and that seems especially fitting for the Hall on Memorial Day is this one-
The Darby Legacy Monument, for BGen William O. Darby, of Darby's Rangers, KIA 30 April 1945 in Torbole, Italy.
The monument features a statue in the form of the classic equestrian statue, but with a twist- General Darby is astride an iron horse instead of one of flesh and bone. Unique and noble.
So, have a grateful Memorial Day, everyone. If you're lucky enough to have a steed- either steel or flesh- perhaps go for a ride to celebrate their memories.
The Oldest Saloon West of the Mississippi
Not closing, this American icon.
Hank Williams is moaning his 1949 hit “I’m So Lonesome I Could Cry,” high and mournful from the old quarter-a-song jukebox when we step off the sunny porch and into the neon light....
“Walls went up in the 1850s,” she says. “Was literally a trapping and trading post for mountain men in the area until 1879. When the town got big enough they moved the dry goods next door and this became a saloon ever since then, including the years of Prohibition.”
“The way that happened was the sheriff was in Ogden, so he either came up by mule or by rail,” she smiles, mischief in her eyes. “They knew he was coming. Sometimes he would arrest the owner, his wife would come over and open the bar back up. So that’s why we’ve kind of had a rebellious spirit.”...
The jukebox, underneath a ceiling one regular estimates has $14,000 in signed $1 bills stapled to it, features Willie, Johnny, Merle, Loretta Lynn, Patsy Cline, Charlie Pride, and the U.S. Navy Band’s rendition of “The National Anthem.” When they get a new commander, the airmen bring him by and Leslie lets them know he and his family can consider this their home. Some time later, airmen will fondly replace the old commander’s photograph with the new one in its place of honor — the base of the men’s toilet.
Some Good Songs about Motorcycles
LTC Allen West was injured in a motorcycle wreck this evening. I didn't know he was a rider, but I'm not surprised. I've met him in passing, and had him used as a bad example by two sets of JAG lawyers during pre-deployment briefings to Iraq. I hope he'll be just fine.
In his honor, some appropriate music.
That last one is apparently the whole movie, and it's quite a film. It was two years after Easy Rider, and had the same production crew but nothing like the budget. So it's a werewolf film, but they could only afford the makeup artist for three days at the end; and they couldn't mostly afford actors, so they just hired bikers. It's a better movie for both of those restrictions, a plausible new cinema psychedelic piece. I'm not sure it isn't better than Easy Rider, as a biker movie. The more famous film has a better soundtrack in places -- though check the intro to this film, 11:48, and also 31:23 -- and Easy Rider had some great sweeping visuals through Monument Valley, but is otherwise somewhat overrated. These guys were mostly for real.
There is nevertheless a substantial content warning, especially for nudity, sex, and violence. Language, drinking, drugs... well, it's psychedelic new cinema. You're all adults.
UPDATE: LTC West is resting in stable condition, with some fractures. He’s to be released soon.
In his honor, some appropriate music.
That last one is apparently the whole movie, and it's quite a film. It was two years after Easy Rider, and had the same production crew but nothing like the budget. So it's a werewolf film, but they could only afford the makeup artist for three days at the end; and they couldn't mostly afford actors, so they just hired bikers. It's a better movie for both of those restrictions, a plausible new cinema psychedelic piece. I'm not sure it isn't better than Easy Rider, as a biker movie. The more famous film has a better soundtrack in places -- though check the intro to this film, 11:48, and also 31:23 -- and Easy Rider had some great sweeping visuals through Monument Valley, but is otherwise somewhat overrated. These guys were mostly for real.
There is nevertheless a substantial content warning, especially for nudity, sex, and violence. Language, drinking, drugs... well, it's psychedelic new cinema. You're all adults.
UPDATE: LTC West is resting in stable condition, with some fractures. He’s to be released soon.
Herschel Walker?
This is going to go hard for the SEC states. Herschel is a minor god here, even after all this time.
Fauci: You Know, Locking Down Too Long is Harmful
I’m glad to see this, as it will encourage people to go beyond the simple partisan lock. None of you are there, but many are.
Koch conquers PBS?
We watched the brief Clarence Thomas bio "Created Equal" on PBS last night. Neither of us could figure out why PBS would run such a thing, unless the Koch money included in the credits actually had some effect, which is hard to imagine.
It wasn't the hack job I expected. The questions were sometimes mildly probing, but never in true "gotcha" territory. Justice Thomas was allowed to explain clearly and repeatedly how his judicial philosophy works, and to express his disgust at the idea that any political movement has the right to tell him what views a black man is required to hold. Anita Hill was treated briefly and respectfully, but Thomas's response got even more time and respect. If it hadn't been PBS, I'd have assumed I was watching a serious journalism outlet.
When Thomas graduated from Yale Law School in the mid-1970s, a committed Democrat, he snagged only one job offer, from then Missouri AG John Danforth, a Republican. Thomas's politics already had undergone a fundamental shakeup after a Marxist youth, but clearly the contact with a lot of thoughtful conservatives had a further impact. Within no more than a decade, many law firms with a strong progressive bent would be falling all over themselves to snag black Yale graduates, but they sure missed their chance with Thomas. Danforth, later a U.S. Senator, became a strong lifetime supporter and friend who sat next to Thomas in the grisly confirmation hearings.
Joe Biden presided over the travesty. He came off as an incomprehensible boob, though more cogent and fluent than he could appear today.
It wasn't the hack job I expected. The questions were sometimes mildly probing, but never in true "gotcha" territory. Justice Thomas was allowed to explain clearly and repeatedly how his judicial philosophy works, and to express his disgust at the idea that any political movement has the right to tell him what views a black man is required to hold. Anita Hill was treated briefly and respectfully, but Thomas's response got even more time and respect. If it hadn't been PBS, I'd have assumed I was watching a serious journalism outlet.
When Thomas graduated from Yale Law School in the mid-1970s, a committed Democrat, he snagged only one job offer, from then Missouri AG John Danforth, a Republican. Thomas's politics already had undergone a fundamental shakeup after a Marxist youth, but clearly the contact with a lot of thoughtful conservatives had a further impact. Within no more than a decade, many law firms with a strong progressive bent would be falling all over themselves to snag black Yale graduates, but they sure missed their chance with Thomas. Danforth, later a U.S. Senator, became a strong lifetime supporter and friend who sat next to Thomas in the grisly confirmation hearings.
Joe Biden presided over the travesty. He came off as an incomprehensible boob, though more cogent and fluent than he could appear today.
Why Are Liberals More Afraid of COVID?
Ezra Klein asks a really interesting question: a lot of research suggests that conservatives have a heightened sense that the world is dangerous, and a lot of the difference between liberals and conservatives comes down to this basic disjoint in our perception of the danger of reality. So why is it that conservatives tend to be less worried about the dangers of COVID, and liberals are the ones preparing to hide in their homes for as long as possible?
Unfortunately, it being Vox, while the question is interesting the answers pursued can be described as "Three theories of why conservatives are wrong." These are:
1) Liberals are acting out of care, as is their core value, while their fear is an expression of superior intellectual understanding of the science; conservatives, though panicked, are engaged in psychological transference of this panic to the economy because they are too afraid or too inferior to grapple honestly with the research.
2) Conservatives are expressing their fear through intensified partisan obedience to their leader, Donald Trump, who would like to downplay the virus.
3) Conservatives are showing fear, but are expressing it through their usual racism toward foreigners/outsiders rather than, like liberals, a wise and scientific approach to epidemiology.
Perhaps in some cases? But surely there are theoretical models that don't require assuming that conservatives are wrong.
1) Economic pressures differ: conservatives are much more likely to be small business owners or employees, whereas liberals are over-represented in government, academia, the press, and the tech sector; also, among workers likely to draw unemployment benefits. Conservatives are thus more likely to be feeling intense economic pressure without help. For liberals, a combination of continued pay and/or the ability to work from home is making 'stay at home forever' a more plausible option.
2) Liberals also feel partisan loyalties, especially to oppose Donald Trump. As we have seen elsewhere, especially in the Russia Collusion hoax, this can lead them to accept implausible storylines that might harm the hated enemy. They tend to see this as an expression of 'care,' because they view Trump as especially uncaring; but it is also an expression of injustice, as it leads them to do things like persist in calling people "traitors!" when in fact they have been shown to be falsely accused. There is no reason to think liberal partisanship is more rational nor more scientific.
3) Conservatives do tend to perceive threats more intensely, but they also tend to build their lives around modes of defending against those threats so they can be free, e.g., learning to carry a handgun and use it safely and effectively. In studying this threat, many conservatives have decided it really isn't an unmanageable danger: for example, the risk of death to a man of my age appears to be around 0.001%, concentrated on those with underlying health conditions that I don't have. While I want to take steps to avoid massive viral load exposure and/or the danger of carrying the disease to someone more vulnerable, I think it's both rational and scientific to learn from the data we've seen that this is a risk I can afford to run.
There may be other theories as well. Perhaps there are even theories in which neither side is 'right.'
Unfortunately, it being Vox, while the question is interesting the answers pursued can be described as "Three theories of why conservatives are wrong." These are:
1) Liberals are acting out of care, as is their core value, while their fear is an expression of superior intellectual understanding of the science; conservatives, though panicked, are engaged in psychological transference of this panic to the economy because they are too afraid or too inferior to grapple honestly with the research.
2) Conservatives are expressing their fear through intensified partisan obedience to their leader, Donald Trump, who would like to downplay the virus.
3) Conservatives are showing fear, but are expressing it through their usual racism toward foreigners/outsiders rather than, like liberals, a wise and scientific approach to epidemiology.
Perhaps in some cases? But surely there are theoretical models that don't require assuming that conservatives are wrong.
1) Economic pressures differ: conservatives are much more likely to be small business owners or employees, whereas liberals are over-represented in government, academia, the press, and the tech sector; also, among workers likely to draw unemployment benefits. Conservatives are thus more likely to be feeling intense economic pressure without help. For liberals, a combination of continued pay and/or the ability to work from home is making 'stay at home forever' a more plausible option.
2) Liberals also feel partisan loyalties, especially to oppose Donald Trump. As we have seen elsewhere, especially in the Russia Collusion hoax, this can lead them to accept implausible storylines that might harm the hated enemy. They tend to see this as an expression of 'care,' because they view Trump as especially uncaring; but it is also an expression of injustice, as it leads them to do things like persist in calling people "traitors!" when in fact they have been shown to be falsely accused. There is no reason to think liberal partisanship is more rational nor more scientific.
3) Conservatives do tend to perceive threats more intensely, but they also tend to build their lives around modes of defending against those threats so they can be free, e.g., learning to carry a handgun and use it safely and effectively. In studying this threat, many conservatives have decided it really isn't an unmanageable danger: for example, the risk of death to a man of my age appears to be around 0.001%, concentrated on those with underlying health conditions that I don't have. While I want to take steps to avoid massive viral load exposure and/or the danger of carrying the disease to someone more vulnerable, I think it's both rational and scientific to learn from the data we've seen that this is a risk I can afford to run.
There may be other theories as well. Perhaps there are even theories in which neither side is 'right.'
Machine Politics
J. Melcher dropped an old but fascinating story in the comments of the post on vote monitoring below. It's the sort of story that should have provoked intense reforms, but of course did not.
Why Did People Like General Flynn?
In the process of working through a theory on why Flynn was railroaded, Lee Smith of Tablet magazine gives a good account of what people like me liked about him.
Flynn did some good stuff in bringing the voices and warnings of the guys in the field forward. Smith's wider thesis is that fear of an audit of the intelligence community by a man who knew it well caused that community to back the outgoing Obama administration's play to destroy him. Maybe that's right; maybe not. It's not ridiculous as a theory, though.
Flynn had enemies at the very top of the intelligence bureaucracy. In 2014, he’d been fired as DIA head. Under oath in February of that year, he told the truth to a Senate committee—ISIS was not, as the president had said, a “JV team.” They were a serious threat to American citizens and interests and were getting stronger. Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper and Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence Michael Vickers then summoned Flynn to the Pentagon and told him he was done.Eli Lake has an allied piece in Commentary as well.
“Flynn’s warnings that extremists were regrouping and on the rise were inconvenient to an administration that didn’t want to hear any bad news,” says former DIA analyst Oubai Shahbandar. “Flynn’s prophetic warnings would play out exactly as he’d warned shortly after he was fired.”
Flynn’s firing appeared to be an end to one of the most remarkable careers in recent American intelligence history. He made his name during the Bush administration’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, where soldiers in the field desperately needed intelligence, often collected by other combat units. But there was a clog in the pipeline—the Beltway’s intelligence bureaucracy, which had a stranglehold over the distribution of intelligence.
Flynn described the problem in a 2010 article titled “Fixing Intel: A Blueprint for Making Intelligence Relevant in Afghanistan,” co-written with current Deputy National Security Adviser Matt Pottinger. “Moving up through levels of hierarchy,” they wrote, “is normally a journey into greater degrees of cluelessness.” Their solution was to cut Washington out of the process: Americans in uniform in Iraq and Afghanistan needed that information to accomplish their mission.
“What made Flynn revolutionary is that he got people out in the field,” says Shahbandar, who served in Iraq under Flynn in 2007-08 and in Afghanistan in 2010-11. “It wasn’t just enough to have intelligence, you needed to understand where it was coming from and what it meant. For instance, if you thought that insurgents were going to take over a village, the first people who would know what was going would be the villagers. So Flynn made sure we knew the environment, the culture, the people.”
Influential senior officers like Gens. David Petraeus and Stanley McChrystal credited Flynn for collecting the intelligence that helped defeat al-Qaida in Iraq in 2007. In 2012, he was named DIA chief.
Flynn did some good stuff in bringing the voices and warnings of the guys in the field forward. Smith's wider thesis is that fear of an audit of the intelligence community by a man who knew it well caused that community to back the outgoing Obama administration's play to destroy him. Maybe that's right; maybe not. It's not ridiculous as a theory, though.
The Best the Government Can Do
The SBA proved incapable of running the 'paycheck protection program,' and Congress' massive spending didn't manage to adequately fund it; economic disaster 'loans' may or may not materialize; unemployment seems to be hard to come by if you can get the systems to work at all; the IRS is apparently unable to process tax returns in a timely manner even though they're getting far less of them than usual. The FDA and CDC screwed up their basic jobs nine ways to Sunday, and hampered private efforts to find ways to test.
The one thing that the government has done that has worked is suspending itself. Suspending regulations let truck drivers get where they needed to be faster, suspending liability laws (via things like the Defense Production Act's temporary nationalization of meat plants) allows businesses to continue to operate. The best the government can do is to stop doing.
Which makes this move the right thing to do. You want job creation and economic growth? Shut down the regulatory agencies as hard as you can.
The one thing that the government has done that has worked is suspending itself. Suspending regulations let truck drivers get where they needed to be faster, suspending liability laws (via things like the Defense Production Act's temporary nationalization of meat plants) allows businesses to continue to operate. The best the government can do is to stop doing.
Which makes this move the right thing to do. You want job creation and economic growth? Shut down the regulatory agencies as hard as you can.
"Take Yourself to Work Day"
A Michigan entrepreneur is defying what may well be America's worst governor, Gretchen Whitmer.
In an interview with PJ Media, the business owner described Whitmer’s executive orders as “in a word, ludicrous.”The NY Post reports that Governor Whitmer is in talks with the Biden campaign about becoming the Vice Presidential nominee, which could easily make her President of the United States soon.
“Tell me how liquor, the lottery, and marijuana are essential while rakes, brooms, and paint aren’t,” Kiilunen said. “Tell me how it is safe to walk with a large crowd in Wal-Mart but not in a hometown business.”
Weird Numbers
Americans seem prepared to walk into socialism, but approve of Trump's handling of the crisis? These are huge majorities for the most part for universal healthcare, universal basic income (at least for the duration of the crisis), and more help for those who may have become unemployed.
It's too bad for Democrats that Bernie didn't win. This could have been his year.
By the way, @AVI, one of my progressive friends just used the phrase "billionaires hoarding Scrooge McDuck levels of wealth" in a conversation about the American response.
It's too bad for Democrats that Bernie didn't win. This could have been his year.
By the way, @AVI, one of my progressive friends just used the phrase "billionaires hoarding Scrooge McDuck levels of wealth" in a conversation about the American response.
Yes, But...
Alan Dershowitz on forced vaccination:
So it may be that the smallpox era ruling would stand up today; but it also might be that it would not. People had a lot of faith in government's ability to do good in the early 1900s. That's not true today, and it's not true for reasons that are sometimes well-founded.
"Let me put it very clearly," Dershowitz said. "You have no constitutional right to endanger the public and spread the disease, even if you disagree. You have no right not to be vaccinated, you have no right not to wear a mask, you have no right to open up your business."The 'but' is that I notice he didn't name the case. He's not wrong, but the precedents are not necessarily settled if they run deeply counter to the current sense of the American people. I think a lot of Americans would dissent from the Buck v. Bell SCOTUS ruling, from the Progressive era, that gave the state wide power to sterilize you against your will. For one thing it runs directly into the teeth of the reproductive rights movement. Although that is mostly about not reproducing, the logic of it is that reproduction is a kind of sacred and personal thing with which the state should never interfere.
The famed law professor added that if the disease in question is not contagious — for example, cancer — a person can refuse treatment.
He continued, "[But] If you refuse to be vaccinated [for a contagious disease], the state has the power to literally take you to a doctor's office and plunge a needle into your arm."
"You have no right to refuse to be vaccinated against a contagious disease," Dershowitz added. "Public health, the police power of the Constitution, gives the state the power to compel that. And there are cases in the United States Supreme Court."
So it may be that the smallpox era ruling would stand up today; but it also might be that it would not. People had a lot of faith in government's ability to do good in the early 1900s. That's not true today, and it's not true for reasons that are sometimes well-founded.
To See Ourselves as Others See Us
O wad some Pow'r the giftie gie us
To see oursels as ithers see us!
It wad frae mony a blunder free us,
An' foolish notion:
What airs in dress an' gait wad lea'e us,
An' ev'n devotion!
-Robert Burns, excerpt, "To a Louse"
Writer Jill Filipovic begins to wonder about possibly considering at least talking about reopening. This essay, from a progressive feminist to her audience, begins with a very large amount of throat-clearing to make sure she isn't misunderstood as one of those people.
This is common. In the comments to Tex's post below, I modified the article about 'what women are like' vs. 'what men are like' to replace the sexes with political labels. It turns out that the substitution very neatly fits the kind of descriptions you'll hear in Ms. Filipovic's piece.
To see oursels as ithers see us!
It wad frae mony a blunder free us,
An' foolish notion:
What airs in dress an' gait wad lea'e us,
An' ev'n devotion!
-Robert Burns, excerpt, "To a Louse"
Writer Jill Filipovic begins to wonder about possibly considering at least talking about reopening. This essay, from a progressive feminist to her audience, begins with a very large amount of throat-clearing to make sure she isn't misunderstood as one of those people.
This is common. In the comments to Tex's post below, I modified the article about 'what women are like' vs. 'what men are like' to replace the sexes with political labels. It turns out that the substitution very neatly fits the kind of descriptions you'll hear in Ms. Filipovic's piece.
"... progressives were found significantly more appreciative of art and beauty, were more open to inner feelings and emotions, more modest in playing down their achievements, and more reactive, affected by feelings, and easily upset. Progressives, on average, were more, outgoing, attentive to others, sensitive, aesthetic, sentimental, cooperative, accommodating, and deferential, warm toward others, showing selfless concern for others, sympathetic, enjoying company, and straightforward and undemanding. Conservatives, on average, were more reserved, utilitarian, unsentimental, dispassionate, and solitary.”We do have the advantage that Robbie Burns wished 'some Power' might give us: we are able to see exactly how others see us. This is true for both men and conservative women. I'm sorry to say that you do not please them much. Perhaps you can free yourselves, as Burns thought, from airs of dress and gait, if any of you have any; but the big question is freeing yourself from devotion.
A Reasonable Point from Michelle Goldberg
I don't often encounter arguments from her that strike me as reasonable, but here is one:
That said there are definitely class issues at play. It's just that all the members of one class aren't on the same side. As always, I feel for the working class men and women whose interests are rarely fully considered. I don't object to raising this set of concerns for them at all. We probably should consider an exception for people who live with high risk candidates (defined, perhaps, as people over 65 who have a complicating illness). Perhaps we should consider lowering the retirement age to 55 for Social Security and pension purposes, so that people whose parents are in the high-risk age zone will be more likely to be able to retire if they want to do so. Their jobs can then provide room for some of that 25%* to find new employment. Perhaps people who came into this crisis in working class careers should be prioritized for extra help retiring if they want to do so.
I'm open to suggestions. There's no reason we can't make some adjustments to help ensure the worker who wants to work can get back to it, and the ones who have rational concerns are protected or at least have their concerns mitigated.
* See comments.
...it’s a mistake to treat the growing ideological divide over when and how to reopen the country as a matter of class rather than partisanship. The push for a faster reopening, even in places where coronavirus cases are growing, has significant elite support. And many of those who face exposure as they’re ordered back to work are rightly angry and terrified.I know of a case in which a woman whose mother was high-risk because of age and disease was called back to work, and she had to choose between quitting / losing her job / going on unpaid leave, or risking infecting her mother. Unemployment benefits end right away, so if she takes the former path she's joining the 25%* of America who are currently out of work. If she takes the latter path, she's getting paid but every day she's risking her mother's life. It's a tough situation.
Because here’s the thing about reopening: It’s liberation to some, but compulsion to others. If your employer reopens but you don’t feel safe going to work, you can’t continue to collect unemployment benefits.
That said there are definitely class issues at play. It's just that all the members of one class aren't on the same side. As always, I feel for the working class men and women whose interests are rarely fully considered. I don't object to raising this set of concerns for them at all. We probably should consider an exception for people who live with high risk candidates (defined, perhaps, as people over 65 who have a complicating illness). Perhaps we should consider lowering the retirement age to 55 for Social Security and pension purposes, so that people whose parents are in the high-risk age zone will be more likely to be able to retire if they want to do so. Their jobs can then provide room for some of that 25%* to find new employment. Perhaps people who came into this crisis in working class careers should be prioritized for extra help retiring if they want to do so.
I'm open to suggestions. There's no reason we can't make some adjustments to help ensure the worker who wants to work can get back to it, and the ones who have rational concerns are protected or at least have their concerns mitigated.
* See comments.
Please Do Not Shoot People for Not Wearing Masks
This means you, Kar... I mean Jennifer.
I notice that Hillary Clinton is also helpfully painting conservative protesters as "domestic terrorists." I'd wager any stakes that Dr. Jennifer was a Hillary supporter.
“As a concerned carry-permitted gun owner, if you refuse to wear a mask and try to come within 6 feet of me or my family, I will exercise the same constitutional rights to shoot you.”Yes, we are all overwhelmed by your concern and compassion for human life.
[Later in her 'apology':]
“I am in a profession where the threat of someone approaching me not wearing a mask while in the midst of a pandemic is equivalent to the threat against my life. Just as it would be if they approached me with their gun drawn and pointed at me....
“Bioterrorism is, however, a real threat and refusal to prevent and/or the intentional release or dissemination of biological agents by not wearing a mask during a global pandemic is a clear example. I am sorry if my words were offensive or derogatory in any way. My concern and compassion for human life got the best of me.”
I notice that Hillary Clinton is also helpfully painting conservative protesters as "domestic terrorists." I'd wager any stakes that Dr. Jennifer was a Hillary supporter.
Welshmen Yield
A young man dressed up as a knight was accosted by armed police -- in Wales they aren't all armed -- because of his foam sword.
From this mythological lake the Lady gave Arthur his magical sword Excalibur, but this knight had his very own excalibur and it was this apparently deadly medieval weapon that caused local concern leading to three machine gun wielding cops swooping down on the curious knight.Combined with the Canadian stormtrooper incident, the British part of the Anglosphere looks worse and worse. The fact that he "admits" that he was wrong is positively "I love Big Brother" territory.
It turned out that the medieval knight was not the ghost of King Arthur, but it was 20-year-old Lennon Thomas, a Dungeons and Dragons and history enthusiast who has since admitted he perhaps suffered a lapse in judgement bringing his sword out into the public domain, but in his defense he told the police that he was “simply enjoying a walk in his armor....”
As one would expect from a highly-trained knight versed in the ways of “war craft”, the righteous and good Sir Lennon Thomas exuded total fairness in the face of three really highly-trained warriors armed with truly-deadly machinery, by admitting that he “had a lapse in judgement on the sword part.” And looking back at his experience at the edge of the Welsh lake, Lennon added that “perhaps bringing the sword wasn’t such a good idea, as from a distance it does look realistic.”
Dropkick Murphys To Perform Free Concert
They did this on St. Patrick's Day -- the 17th of March, when all this was still somewhat new -- and they're going to do another free concert on the 29th.
I saw them live in Atlanta a few years ago now. They were great live.
I saw them live in Atlanta a few years ago now. They were great live.
Love in the time of COVID-19
From an Althouse commenter, exasperated by a particularly fatuous New York blog about ZOOM dating and the prospects for tentative post-lockdown romance:
It was a dark and stormy night. I opened the door and, at last, he was there. I had never seen him but I recognized him at once as if his heart wore some strange emblem on his sleeve. His dark eyes burned into mine and in voice strangely distant he said my name - "Mabel!" "No," I said, my voice choked in the same, strange distant way, "No, I'm Noemi, Mabel lives next door if you call it living when she can't get herself a bootleg haircut. She...." "It is you," he said in the same distant voice, "I have seen you from afar on the cameras and I can no longer wait." Strong figures tore at my mask and I heard it rip. "No," I screamed, "No, you may be infected, toxically masculine or a Trump supporter, which is worse, I don't know!" My mask fell to the floor. Fire seemed to run over him and he came closer. I heard him shout "You, it is you, at last." My senses swayed and yearned as avid lips sought mine to garner sweetness and the last thing I felt was a burning sensation spreading like fire through my loins of desire. When I came to, the pizza man was gone and the pizza was cold and crushed in its box where it had fallen between us as he grabbed for his money. He'd taken his money and gone. Took a hefty tip, too. I guess that little game of sending for pizza and claiming that I was Noemi, not Mabel, the girl next door and that the pizza guys were getting it wrong because of the masks, is over. Never mind.
Old Norse Poetics
I really enjoy listening to poetry in Old Norse or Old English; I have a copy of the Beowulf in the original. It's fun to see how much you can follow.
Here's an example with 'facing' English, so that you can more readily track which parts you followed.
Here's an example with 'facing' English, so that you can more readily track which parts you followed.
The Shopping Cart Theory
Do you return your shopping cart when you are done with it? I'll bet you do if you hang around here.
Motte-and-Bailey Feminism
Reason suggests that the retreat from the 'believe all women' position to 'believe women who accuse Republicans' is an example of an informal fallacy.
I'm not sure it's properly speaking a fallacy so much as an objectively dishonest rhetorical strategy. A fallacy is an error in logic; informal fallacies occur in ordinary rhetoric, which isn't usually amenable to the strict logic in which formal fallacies occur. You can get a formal fallacy in rhetoric, it just doesn't happen much: but if I make a claim that P -> Q, !P, therefore !Q, I've made a formally fallacious argument. If I argue that you're a bad person therefore you can't be right, that's informally fallacious. In both cases, I'm making a claim that doesn't follow from the premises.
The motte-and-bailey is only an error if you don't notice that you've shifted your goalposts substantially. Otherwise, it's a lie. Reason also uses the term 'gaslighting,' which I learned from Tex, and which is a form of intentional deception.
So the question is whether or not they notice their own shift. Maybe not; progressivism is based on fervently asserting beliefs in things that you probably have to know are not true, e.g., that all people are per se "equal" (rather than possessing one form of political equality). Maybe at some point you just don't notice that you've shifted from really saying 'believe all women!' to 'don't just dismiss women'; or from 'it is sexist not to build systems biased in favor of women' to 'feminism is just about equality!' (And which equality, again?)
Eric Hines accuses me of being too generous to my opponents. Perhaps I am; but I do see a lot of self-deception in humanity. I think many of these people really are in error rather than intentionally lying; I think they really can't see outside the lies on which they've founded their lives and their vision of justice. It's a big problem. It's hard to reason with someone who is lying to themselves all the time about the very questions you're treating, especially when (as here) they have gigantic social support systems to reinforce the lies and to protect them from having to grapple with the fact that they are engaged in a (self?) deceptive practice.
In truth, believe-victims activists have been making generous use of the motte-and-bailey fallacy. This is a form of argument in which a person makes a strong, unreasonable, and indefensible claim—the bailey—and then falls back on an uncontroversial claim—the motte—when challenged. With "believe victims," the bailey position was something like what Biden and Clinton said: Presume that each and every alleged victim is telling the truth. The motte position is closer to this: Respect and support alleged victims, and don't automatically discount what they say. In the wake of Reade's allegations against him, Biden has unsurprisingly retreated to the motte.This is a topic that Slate Star Codex has treated repeatedly over the years.
I'm not sure it's properly speaking a fallacy so much as an objectively dishonest rhetorical strategy. A fallacy is an error in logic; informal fallacies occur in ordinary rhetoric, which isn't usually amenable to the strict logic in which formal fallacies occur. You can get a formal fallacy in rhetoric, it just doesn't happen much: but if I make a claim that P -> Q, !P, therefore !Q, I've made a formally fallacious argument. If I argue that you're a bad person therefore you can't be right, that's informally fallacious. In both cases, I'm making a claim that doesn't follow from the premises.
The motte-and-bailey is only an error if you don't notice that you've shifted your goalposts substantially. Otherwise, it's a lie. Reason also uses the term 'gaslighting,' which I learned from Tex, and which is a form of intentional deception.
So the question is whether or not they notice their own shift. Maybe not; progressivism is based on fervently asserting beliefs in things that you probably have to know are not true, e.g., that all people are per se "equal" (rather than possessing one form of political equality). Maybe at some point you just don't notice that you've shifted from really saying 'believe all women!' to 'don't just dismiss women'; or from 'it is sexist not to build systems biased in favor of women' to 'feminism is just about equality!' (And which equality, again?)
Eric Hines accuses me of being too generous to my opponents. Perhaps I am; but I do see a lot of self-deception in humanity. I think many of these people really are in error rather than intentionally lying; I think they really can't see outside the lies on which they've founded their lives and their vision of justice. It's a big problem. It's hard to reason with someone who is lying to themselves all the time about the very questions you're treating, especially when (as here) they have gigantic social support systems to reinforce the lies and to protect them from having to grapple with the fact that they are engaged in a (self?) deceptive practice.
Home cooking
I made chicken and dumplings this week, loosely following a recipe from my late aunt's elderly East Texas housekeeper. The soup is simplicity itself: boil the chicken until the meat is barely done, then remove the pieces, debone whatever comes off easily, and set the bite-sized meat aside. Throw the bones back in and boil some more, adding salt and, if you like, mirepoix (diced carrots/onions/celery). This part takes an hour or two, depending on your patience and how intense you like your broth to get. Reserve the skimmed schmaltz, not worrying about snagging some broth with it. You'll want a cup or so of a roughly half-schmaltz/half-broth mixture for the dumplings.
The dumplings are the pie-dough sort, not the biscuit-ball sort. The old recipe called for flour, Crisco, and hot water, but I always use the skimmings from the boiled chicken instead. They're full of flavor now, so why waste them? The proportions aren’t critical: just add enough to make about two cups of flour squishy but just firm enough to roll out on a large floured board. Adding an egg is nice. This week’s improvement was to roll out the dough as thin as I could, then cut it into small squares and stretch each little square with my fingers before I tossed it in the soup to boil. Adding the egg may have helped with the stretching, which got them thin enough for the first time: nearly translucent. They sort of spring back in the boiling stage, but when they’re done they have a nice texture, not thick enough to be doughy in the middle.
While the dumplings are boiling, which doesn't take long when they're thin, maybe 10-15 minutes, add the cooked bite-size chicken back in, with a bit of vinegar to taste. Lacking vinegar, you can substitute anything sour you have handy, such as lemon juice. Just balance the salt and acidity until it tastes rounded. I didn't mention pepper because I don't care about it, but it wouldn't hurt to add some. Ditto herbs if you like them. Tarragon is good. Skim the soup again once the dumplings taste done, as they will have yielded up most of the schmaltz you mixed into them.
Some people like chicken and dumplings to be creamy, so you can add milk or cream. I don't, but I don't see how it could hurt.
The whole dish takes only chicken, water, flour, and salt, plus some kind of tartness from anything handy, an optional egg, and optional onions/carrots/celery or pepper and herbs. As a bonus, I can usually get a couple of bowlfuls of over-cooked chicken shred from the bones after their second boil, which the dogs love, or you could feed it to whatever foxes or raccoons may live nearby. The dogs like the schmaltz, too.
The dumplings are the pie-dough sort, not the biscuit-ball sort. The old recipe called for flour, Crisco, and hot water, but I always use the skimmings from the boiled chicken instead. They're full of flavor now, so why waste them? The proportions aren’t critical: just add enough to make about two cups of flour squishy but just firm enough to roll out on a large floured board. Adding an egg is nice. This week’s improvement was to roll out the dough as thin as I could, then cut it into small squares and stretch each little square with my fingers before I tossed it in the soup to boil. Adding the egg may have helped with the stretching, which got them thin enough for the first time: nearly translucent. They sort of spring back in the boiling stage, but when they’re done they have a nice texture, not thick enough to be doughy in the middle.
While the dumplings are boiling, which doesn't take long when they're thin, maybe 10-15 minutes, add the cooked bite-size chicken back in, with a bit of vinegar to taste. Lacking vinegar, you can substitute anything sour you have handy, such as lemon juice. Just balance the salt and acidity until it tastes rounded. I didn't mention pepper because I don't care about it, but it wouldn't hurt to add some. Ditto herbs if you like them. Tarragon is good. Skim the soup again once the dumplings taste done, as they will have yielded up most of the schmaltz you mixed into them.
Some people like chicken and dumplings to be creamy, so you can add milk or cream. I don't, but I don't see how it could hurt.
The whole dish takes only chicken, water, flour, and salt, plus some kind of tartness from anything handy, an optional egg, and optional onions/carrots/celery or pepper and herbs. As a bonus, I can usually get a couple of bowlfuls of over-cooked chicken shred from the bones after their second boil, which the dogs love, or you could feed it to whatever foxes or raccoons may live nearby. The dogs like the schmaltz, too.
A Gym in New Jersey
Opening in defiance of the governor's order, a gym is visited by the police.
Well done.
Well done.
‘Off the Books’ Spying at Treasury Dept
So reports The Ohio Star.
President Barack Obama’s Treasury Department regularly surveilled retired Army Lt. Gen. Michael T. Flynn’s financial records and transactions beginning in December 2015 and well into 2017, before, during and after when he served at the White House as President Donald Trump’s National Security Director, a former senior Treasury Department official, and veteran of the intelligence community, told the Star Newspapers....The whistleblower also claims the Justice Department didn’t go through the formal steps to authorize this.
Only two names are listed in the whistleblower’s official paperwork, so the others must remain sealed, she said. The second name is Paul J. Manafort Jr., the one-time chairman of Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.
The other names include: Members of Congress, the most senior staffers on the 2016 Trump campaign and members of Trump’s family...
Vulnerable hardest hit
It occurs to a Guardian pundit that, just as COVID-19 hurts the vulnerable the most, so does the lockdown. Duh. Everything harms the vulnerable the most; that's what "vulnerable" means.
It doesn't necessarily follow, as the writer argues, that "vulnerable" is best defined as his favorite SJW categories:
You can make a class argument out of the disparity in certain kinds of illnesses, especially those related to obesity (such as heart disease and diabetes), but the argument isn't as persuasive as a lot of people seem to think. When you have to blame "food deserts" for obesity among people who supposedly are too poor to eat, you're really reaching.
It doesn't necessarily follow, as the writer argues, that "vulnerable" is best defined as his favorite SJW categories:
This pandemic is an X-ray, exposing the racial and class inequalities of our society.It's fair enough to note that people without safety margins of all kinds are far more likely to be swallowed up in severe disruptions. COVID-19, however, is unusual in its extreme focus on the elderly, which, unfortunately for the Guardian, can't easily be shoehorned into the SJW worldview. No amount of Marxist thinking will solve the problem of a disease whose median age of case fatality is around 80, or whose deadly impact falls in over 99% of cases on a group comprise of the elderly and/or those with fairly severe medical challenges. At most, the carnage in nursing homes might make us want to re-think how we warehouse the elderly of all races and classes.
You can make a class argument out of the disparity in certain kinds of illnesses, especially those related to obesity (such as heart disease and diabetes), but the argument isn't as persuasive as a lot of people seem to think. When you have to blame "food deserts" for obesity among people who supposedly are too poor to eat, you're really reaching.
Turns out I'm a guy
I know, these studies are about averages and can't be expected to apply to every individual, as I'm always saying. But everything on the man list rings bells with me, while I can barely hear the siren song from the woman list--though most of the latter began to have more appeal to me after the age of about 60:
Vanderbilt University psychologists, studying middle-aged men and women who were high achievers in math, having an IQ of 140+, received quite different responses from males and females to statements about preferences: Men emphasized freedom of expression and ideas, merit pay, a full-time career, invention, taking risks, working with things, lots of money, stating facts in the face of resistance. Women emphasized part-time careers, for a limited time, working no more than 40 hours a week, flexibility in work schedule, friendships, community service, socializing, and community.
Beethoven on a 15 String Harp Guitar
We haven't had much music lately. Here are some lovely pieces on an unusual instrument.
Created Equal on PBS Tomorrow
The documentary Created Equal: Clarence Thomas in His Own Words will be showing and streaming on PBS May 18 at 9 EST / 8 CDT.
I saw this in the theater when it came out and really loved it. It is a biography of Thomas, but as the title implies, he does a lot of the talking himself.
Although the whole documentary was interesting, one of my favorite parts was seeing then-Senator Biden try to spar with Thomas during the confirmation hearings. It was comical.
I saw this in the theater when it came out and really loved it. It is a biography of Thomas, but as the title implies, he does a lot of the talking himself.
Although the whole documentary was interesting, one of my favorite parts was seeing then-Senator Biden try to spar with Thomas during the confirmation hearings. It was comical.
Reynard
A neighbor has been feeding a gray fox, or perhaps I should say a vixen. We saw her taking food from the neighbor's hand. She comes every evening.
Gray foxes can climb trees as readily as a cat. We have few if any red foxes here.
Gray foxes can climb trees as readily as a cat. We have few if any red foxes here.
Killed by Bureaucracy
They were taught all through their educations and careers that the most important thing was not to discriminate. So when the moment came when the most important thing of all was to discriminate....
Epidemiologist Knut Wittkowski: Open Up & Forget the Whole Thing
A contrarian view from the 20-year head of the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Research Design at The Rockefeller University’s Center for Clinical and Translational Science. One might even say a curmudgeonly view.
"You're no friend of this court!"
I'm so old, I can remember when federal courts didn't think it was a good idea to troll for issue advocacy in the form of amicus briefs.
Some of you may recognize my title from a Heinlein novel. He had a good grasp of the law, and liked to set up vignettes in which an honest judge lost patience with conspiracies and courtroom shenanigans, especially when officious intermeddlers were shown the door. In the scene I'm remembering, an oily legal hanger-on type is asked to explain his presence at a trial, and answers, "Who, me? Amicus curiae, Your Honor."
Some of you may recognize my title from a Heinlein novel. He had a good grasp of the law, and liked to set up vignettes in which an honest judge lost patience with conspiracies and courtroom shenanigans, especially when officious intermeddlers were shown the door. In the scene I'm remembering, an oily legal hanger-on type is asked to explain his presence at a trial, and answers, "Who, me? Amicus curiae, Your Honor."
The Costly Failure to Update Sky-Is-Falling Predictions
Sean Trende over at RCP has a very good article looking at coronavirus predictions that didn't pan out and the social cost of the failure of experts and media sources to acknowledge and update their reporting.
As part of this, he covers predictions on the re-opening of several states, including Florida, Georgia, and Wisconsin, and how they were wrong.
It's a good one-stop page for showing people the facts of the case as well as how predictions were wrong, and would be useful for arguing for opening up. I'll be sending the link to people I know, so thought I'd share.
As part of this, he covers predictions on the re-opening of several states, including Florida, Georgia, and Wisconsin, and how they were wrong.
It's a good one-stop page for showing people the facts of the case as well as how predictions were wrong, and would be useful for arguing for opening up. I'll be sending the link to people I know, so thought I'd share.
David Reaboi on America
As part of an interview he's given, some thoughts on America:
America’s weakest national security link is our disunity. We’re no longer in agreement about the most fundamental questions underpinning the regime—including who we see as allies and who we consider adversaries on the world stage. While there was always an insistent and vocal part of the American Left that agitated for our enemies during the Cold War, the mainstream debate consisted of how best to deal with the Soviet Union as an evil rival.... [But now] I don’t think another nation in history has been so thoroughly despised by its own elite class. Now, because these are our society’s elites, they have the power to change the character of the country, to finally wrest it from both the traditions of its founding and the citizens who still believe in those traditions. And they’ve largely done that; they’re just now trying to neutralize the last holdouts. That struggle is the disunity we’re seeing....I know Dave, who is something of a pessimist (as he would admit himself). That predisposition is worth keeping in mind when you ponder his thoughts. But he's also both a 'wise guy' and a smart guy, who definitely does 'know what time it is.' Watching the Flynn story, and the larger Trump/Russia story unfold, it is clear that the institutions of this nation have been turned against it. Perhaps that started during the Obama administration; perhaps that was the point of acceleration. I wonder how right he is that it just won't be possible to fix.
There’s an essential question many friends and I ask, when discussing a potential ally: “Does he know what time it is?” That is, does one have the ability to be unsentimental and realistic in assessing our current situation. Does he understand the predicament we’re in, with a left that’s already marched through the institutions? Does he accept the impossibility or the extreme unlikelihood of “returning” to anything resembling even the America of the 1990s? I think that grappling with these questions is a prerequisite for more than leadership, going forward; it really should be the minimum of what makes someone a political voice worth hearing at this point.
UNICEF: Expect 1.3 Million Child Deaths From Economic Shock
There’s no real reason to think that this model is any better than the climate models; it’s possibly no better than the coronavirus models, although the virus was novel and this problem is old. For what it’s worth, though, it is another consideration.
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