And this, too

Victor David Hanson:

Ten bad takeaways from the Zelenskyy blow-up

1. Zelenskyy does not grasp—or deliberately ignores—the bitter truth: those with whom he feels most affinity (Western globalists, the American Left, the Europeans) have little power in 2025 to help him. And those with whom he obviously does not like or seeks to embarrass (cf. his Scranton, Penn. campaign-like visit in September 2024) alone have the power to save him. For his own sake, I hope he is not being “briefed” by the Obama-Clinton-Biden gang to confront Trump, given their interests are not really Ukraine’s as they feign.

2. Zelenskyy acts as if his agendas and ours are identical. So, he keeps insisting that he is fighting for us despite our two-ocean-distance that he mocks. We do have many shared interests with Ukraine, but not all by any means: Trump wants to “reset” with Russia and triangulate it against China. He seeks to avoid a 1962 DEFCON 2-like crisis over a proxy showdown in proximity to a nuclear rival. And he sincerely wants to end the deadlocked Stalingrad slaughterhouse for everyone’s sake.

3. The Europeans (and Canada) are now talking loudly of a new muscular antithesis, independent of the U.S. Promises, promises—given that would require Europeans to prune back their social welfare state, frack, use nuclear, stop the green obsessions, and spend 3-5 percent of their GDP on defense. The U.S. does not just pay 16 percent of NATO’s budget but also puts up with asymmetrical tariffs that result in a European Union trade surplus of $160 billion, plays the world cop patrolling sea-lanes and deterring terrorists and rogues states that otherwise might interrupt Europe’s commercial networks abroad, as well as de facto including Europe under a nuclear umbrella of 6,500 nukes.

4. Zelenskyy must know that all of the once deal-stopping issues to peace have been de facto settled: Ukraine is now better armed than most NATO nations, but will not be in NATO; and no president has or will ever supply Ukraine with the armed wherewithal to take back the Donbass and Crimea. So, the only two issues are a) how far will Putin be willing to withdraw to his 2022 borders and b) how will he be deterred? The first is answered by a commercial sector/tripwire, joint Ukrainian-US-Europe resource development corridor in Eastern Ukraine, coupled with a Korea-like DMZ; the second by the fact that Putin unlike his 2008 and 2014 invasions has now lost a million dead and wounded to a Ukraine that will remain thusly armed.

5. What are Zelenskyy’s alternatives without much U.S. help—wait for a return of the Democrats to the White House in four years? Hope for a rearmed Europe? Pray for a Democratic House and a 3rd Vindman-like engineered Trump impeachment? Or swallow his pride, return to the White House, sign the rare-earth minerals deal, invite in the Euros (are they seriously willing to patrol a DMZ?), and hope Trump can warn Putin, as he did successfully between 2017-21, not to dare try it again?

6. If there is a cease fire, a commercial deal, a Euro ground presence, and influx of Western companies into Ukraine, would there be elections? And if so, would Zelenskyy and his party win? And if not, would there be a successor transparent government that would reveal exactly where all the Western financial aid money went?

7. Zelenskyy might see a model in Netanyahu. The Biden Administration was far harder on him than Trump is on Ukraine: suspending arms shipments, demanding cease-fires, prodding for a wartime, bipartisan cabinet, hammering Israel on collateral damage—none of which Westerners have demanded of Zelenskyy. Yet Netanyahu managed a hostile Biden, kept Israel close to its patron, and when visiting was gracious to his host. Netanyahu certainly would never before the global media have interrupted, and berated a host and patron president in the White House.

8. If Ukraine has alienated the U.S. what then is its strategic victory plan? Wait around for more Euros? Hold off an increasingly invigorated Russian military? Cede more territory? What, then, exactly are Zelenskyy’s cards he seems to think are a winning hand?

9. If one views carefully all the 50-minute tape, most of it was going quite well—until Zelenskyy started correcting Vance firstly, and Trump secondly. By Ukraine-splaining to his hosts, and by his gestures, tone, and interruptions, he made it clear that he assumed that Trump was just more of the same compliant, clueless moneybags Biden waxen effigy. And that was naïve for such a supposedly worldly leader.

10. March 2025 is not March 2022, after the heroic saving of Kyiv—but three years and 1.5 million dead and wounded later. Zelenskyy is no longer the international heartthrob with the glamorous entourage. He has postponed elections, outlawed opposition media and parties, suspended habeas corpus and walked out of negotiations when he had an even hand in Spring 2022 and apparently even now when he does not in Spring 2025.

Quo vadis, Volodymyr?

That's about it

Bonchie sums it up on X:

Overnight, the discussion has shifted from "Trump ambushed Zelensky" to "Yeah, Zelensky was rude, but so what?" Progress, I guess.

But that still misses the point. Zelensky's interjection to make clear he has no intention of negotiating a ceasefire is what blew up the deal.

I don't want to see Ukrained overrun, but if Zelenskyy won't negotiate a ceasefire that calls for Russia keeping the eastern territories and Crimea, then I guess he'd better roll the dice with whatever virtue-signaling European or Europhile countries are willing to get serious with money and men.

Exactly What I Wanted!

Now that’s marketing. 

Anabasis XX: Diplomacy

Today we've had quite a display of how diplomacy can lead to an honest and forthright exchange of views, rather than the 'formalized lying in formal wear' that we more usually observe from the professionals. 

The Myriad have a great example for us in today's reading of how diplomacy was done right in the old days. I'm going to quote more of the text than usual because it is a short section that is very charming.

After this, whilst waiting, they lived partly on supplies from the market, partly on the fruit of raids into Paphlagonia. The Paphlagonians, on their side, showed much skill in kidnapping stragglers, wherever they could lay hands on them, and in the night time tried to do mischief to those whose quarters were at a distance from the camp. The result was that their relations to one another were exceedingly hostile, so much so that Corylas, who was the chief of Paphlagonia at that date, sent ambassadors to the Hellenes, bearing horses and fine apparel, and charged with a proposal on the part of Corylas to make terms with the Hellenes on the principle of mutual forbearance from injuries. The generals replied that they would consult with the army about the matter. 

This is a promising start to peace talks. Both sides are hurting to a greater or lesser degree, so both sides are motivated to consider a peace proposal. The army has a problem it needs to solve -- adequate supplies -- and their enemies have a problem they need to solve -- not being subject to raids. There's an obvious solution: provide tribute on a temporary basis until the Myriad leaves the area in return for a cessation of raiding. The generals have instituted a democracy, however, in which the officers are subject to the discipline of the enlisted as well as vice-versa (if you read through the conflicts in yesterday's reading, you'll have seen some generals being fined by vote of the assembled army for one reason and another). So this proposed treaty is a matter the army will vote upon as well.

And in the best Ancient Greek style, they do it following a symposium held with the embassy. Notice that, unlike with the Persians, the Greeks respect the truce and cause no harm to those who are under their hospitality. 

[T]hey gave them a hospitable reception, to which they invited certain members of the army whose claims were obvious. They sacrificed some of the captive cattle and other sacrificial beasts, and with these they furnished forth a sufficiently festal entertainment, and reclining on their truckle beds, fell to eating and drinking out of beakers made of horn which they happened to find in the country.

But as soon as the libation was ended and they had sung the hymn, up got first some Thracians, who performed a dance under arms to the sound of a pipe, leaping high into the air with much nimbleness, and brandishing their swords [in a theatrical dance common to that country]... 

After this some Aenianians and Magnesians got up and fell to dancing the Carpaea, as it is called, under arms. This was the manner of the dance: one man lays aside his arms and proceeds to drive a yoke of oxen, and while he drives he sows, turning him about frequently, as though he were afraid of something; up comes a cattle-lifter, and no sooner does the ploughman catch sight of him afar, than he snatches up his arms and confronts him. They fight in front of his team, and all in rhythm to the sound of the pipe. At last the robber binds the countryman and drives off the team. Or sometimes the cattle-driver binds the robber, and then he puts him under the yoke beside the oxen, with his two hands tied behind his back, and off he drives....

After this a Mysian came in with a light shield in either hand and danced, at one time going through a pantomime, as if he were dealing with two assailants at once; at another plying his shields as if to face a single foe, and then again he would whirl about and throw somersaults, keeping the shields in his hands, so that it was a beautiful spectacle. Last of all he danced the Persian dance, clashing the shields together, crouching down on one knee and springing up again from earth; and all this he did in measured time to the sound of the flute. After him the Mantineans stepped upon the stage, and some other Arcadians also stood up; they had accoutred themselves in all their warlike finery. They marched with measured tread, pipes playing, to the tune of the 'warrior's march'; the notes of the paean rose, lightly their limbs moved in dance, as in solemn procession to the holy gods. The Paphlagonians looked upon it as something truly strange that all these dances should be under arms; and the Mysians, seeing their astonishment persuaded one of the Arcadians who had got a dancing girl to let him introduce her, which he did after dressing her up magnificently and giving her a light shield. When, lithe of limb, she danced the Pyrrhic, loud clapping followed; and the Paphlagonians asked, "If these women fought by their side in battle?" to which they answered, "To be sure, it was the women who routed the great King, and drove him out of camp." So ended the night.

The next day the army accepts the peace proposal, and the embassy returns home. The Ten Thousand remain there until they feel that enough ships have been gathered, and then they take to the sea to sail away from this country (probably to the vast relief of the inhabitants). They sail to Sinope, which receives them with gifts especially of food, that being the clear lesson on how to make and keep peace with the army. 

There they are met by Cheirisophus, who had gone to his friend the admiral to get ships for the army. Well, he didn't bring them ships or anything else except fine words and a promise of future pay once they are in closer proximity. 

The army pauses for a few days after a further sailing voyage and considers a change in leadership, switching to a single general with overall command instead of several who command different sections. This is with a view toward swift action to seize a fitting prize before they reach Hellas, because they don't want to come home almost empty-handed (although given what they have been through, coming home at all is quite a prize). 

Xenophon is asked to assume the supreme command -- he tells us -- but decides not to do so following a sacrifice to Zeus in his role as the King. He is offered the command but refuses it, first on the grounds that there is a Spartan there and Spartans have proven themselves the best soldiers (i.e. in the recent Peloponnesian War). When that is not accepted, he admits that he held a sacrifice and received a vision that told him he shouldn't take the command. This argument is accepted by all. 

So instead they choose Cheirisophus, who at least has a promise of employment for them. He says they will sail on to Heraclea. Now, "Heraclea" is a city name derived from the highly popular hero Heracles, and as such is about as common a city name in the era as "Alexandria" will soon become or as "Jackson" or "Jefferson" or "Franklin" are in America. Fortunately the text mentions the legend about the mouth of Hades being reputedly near the town, so we can be sure which of the many Heracleas is intended. 

I-40 to Reopen Tomorrow

It's just going to be one lane in each direction at first, but it will accommodate standard size-and-weight tractor trailers. That will be huge for the trucking industry, which has been having to route as far north as I-81 north of Johnson City, or as far south as I-285 north of Atlanta, for loads that required interstate transit. Traversing the mountain roads with a semi is out of the question in most of this country: they're just old mule trails that have curves too tight for a big truck to make. Every now and then some cowboy tries to bring a semi across US 129, "the Tail of the Dragon," and that goes about as well as you'd imagine.

Local roads have a similar problem. I mentioned NC 107 the other day; semis run down that one, but it's a near thing sometimes if you meet one. For a long time Dollar General's navigation software was routing its trucks across NC 281 up here. The VFD would have to help them back up, sometimes for miles, to get back to a road they could retreat upon successfully. These roads were built by mules, for mules.

A Pro-Trump Washington Post Opinion?

Trump dealt Russia a 'devastating blow' with mineral deal, may have effectively ended the war.

Strange thing to see in the Washington Post of all places. It's not a ridiculous argument, although the diplomatic dishonesty being engaged to smooth the peace deal in Ukraine is astonishing to watch.

UPDATE: The Post is back to its usual self today. Just a passing fever. 

Lead opinion: Donald Trump's rapidly spreading authoritarianism is the real threat to personal liberties and free markets. (Technically satisfies Bezos' order that Post opinion backs personal liberties and free markets.)

Editorial Board: Do Canada and Mexico deserve Trump tariffs? (Answer: No.)

Second op-ed: 'Tech bro Maoists' are torching the country that made them rich. (Graphic of Elon with a chainsaw).

Latest columns: 5/7 explicitly anti-Trump, 2 neutral.

I'd say that looks like open revolt against the boss.

Whitehouse Road (with Sturgill Simpson)

Some impressive guitar work by a man who could fill the Ryman easily by himself, but chose to show up as a guest at Tyler Childers' show. 

Anabasis XIX

When last we left the Ten Thousand, they were pushing their way south along the Black Sea. They had initially found a Greek city along the coast, because the Greeks like the Anglo-Saxons or the Norse-Celtic kingdoms of Norðreyjar and Suðreyjar was a thalassocracy (a word that we have from the Greeks: Xenophon's near-contemporary Herodotus used it to explain the Minoan empire). As they push southwest, they fight their way through non-Greek peoples, but eventually reach another Greek state along the coast, Sinope. This one serves as a protector for some non-Greeks that the Ten Thousand initially encounter in terms of mutual hostility. A detachment from the Greek state arrives to negotiate terms for the army's visit. The discourse between these Greeks and the Ten Thousand becomes notably more diplomatic and friendly as the Greeks realize just how powerful the Ten Thousand would be if they decided to fight.

Xenophon considers whether it might just be sensible to found a city with the Ten Thousand as its citizens; we have talked here about how they are a sort of Republic in any case, a Republic on the march. Were they to settle and take some promising country, they could defend it and support themselves in a sufficient way exactly as other states like Sparta were doing in the same period. Xenophon commissions a sacrifice and oracular reading to understand whether or not this is as promising an idea as he thinks it might be, and receives the prophecy that someone will betray him soon.

The efficacy of this prophecy turns out to be a small wonder, as the oracle himself was alarmed by the idea of city-founding and immediately betrays Xenophon by spreading rumors about his designs. This sets off a series of hearings within the army as some internal tensions that have been building in periods of danger now have a moment of peace in which they can be brought forward and resolved. Xenophon is able to convince the army that his intention in consulting the oracle was merely to decide whether the idea was promising enough to bring forward to the group, rather than an attempt to make decisions behind their backs. Some additional internal dramatics get worked out in this period, which I find less compelling than other matters and so will leave as an exercise for interested readers. 

By the way, if you follow the link "Ten Thousand" you will learn that the Ancient Greeks had a specific word for this quantity, which is the root of our word "myriad." For us that word implies a very large but nonspecific number, but for the Greeks it was a specific figure that was written: "M". Thus, in Greek the name of the army that we give in English as "the Ten Thousand" is properly "The Myriad." 

It's a more evocative term. You can easily imagine the effect on a city state of discovering that the Myriad had suddenly materialized in their vicinity, as the citizens of Sinope did, with demands they wished to make about access to markets and resources. They bring silver and would prefer to buy, and might want to charter shipping or else purchase larger supplies for a further march; but they are perilous, numerous, and disciplined.

Revival

When I hear the word “Revival,” I think of the literal camps that dotted North Georgia when I was young. They were semi permanent buildings, sheds of wood or corrugated steel, which in the summer season sprang into revival meetings — summer while the crops grew between planting and harvest, and it was too hot in Georgia to do anything but pray anyway. 

Those were Protestant, but this band has taken a name that suggests at least a strong tie to the Catholic tradition. The endorsement of bourbon as part of the solution is more comfortable for Catholics than it is for Baptists anyway. 

Upper Bearwallow Falls

Gorges State Park, North Carolina. 

This is waterfall country. The Blue Ridge Escarpment coincides here with the Eastern Continental Divide and also an alpine rain forest where warm air moving northeast from the Gulf of Mexico hits its first real mountains. 

There are so many waterfalls here that no one knows how many there are. There are so many that no one knows how many there are even just inside Gorges State Park. 

There are so many waterfalls here that when I bought my house, after we had closed, at the very last meeting where the former owners were turning over the keys, they mentioned in passing that there was a waterfall here on the property. "There is a waterfall on the property" never even came up in the listing, in the sales meetings, in the negotiations, just kind of at the end as an aside they pointed out that we now owned one. 

On NC 107 north of Cashiers there is a beautiful one that is only visible from the road when the leaves are off the trees. It's tall and long, divides into two sections and then comes back together for a single broad fall down a rock face. Anywhere else they'd have built a park just to look at it. Here, there's not even a pull-off along the highway so you can stop to view the thing. 

Aid Exceptions

During the discussion of USAID, I mentioned that my experience with their work in the southern Philippines was broadly positive. I thought we might miss their contributions to counterinsurgency. 

Fifteen years ago when I was in the Southern Philippines, USAID had just built a water treatment plant for a local community on one of the islands where some Islamist groups were trying to recruit. (Abu Sayyaf was the more problematic one, but also Jemaah Islamiyah and the local crew, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front or 'MILF' as they amusingly chose to be called.) They also funded the local schools and, importantly, provided the textbooks to those schools -- textbooks that described the American influence otherwise than as a Great Satan, but pointed out helpful things that came to everyone in the area from the relationship. 

They had relationships throughout the limited local government even in that remote corner of the world. They knew people who could get things done. And, most likely, they provided a cover for clandestine operations and officers as necessary to target the radical Islamist groups using the area.

Our new Secretary of State, Rubio, agrees with that opinion. He exempted the Philippines and Taiwan from the aid freeze after review. It sounds like he is chiefly interested in the Chinese-backed insurgency (the Maoists are indeed quite dangerous and a form of power projection by the PRC).

“Governor”

I don’t know that it’s a good thing that the President thinks he’s a comedian, but we are where we are. 

A Balmy Day

I rode down into Brevard today, where it was nearly fifty and sunny. Up at Owen’s Gap, well above the continental divide, it was still chilly. 

Anabasis XVIII

When last we left the Ten Thousand, they had come home to the Greek world -- at least to a Greek city on the Black Sea that they used as a base for raiding back into the countryside they had recently traversed. The locals made them welcome.

Nevertheless the army of Ten Thousand -- a new census shows that it is now 14% smaller than that, at 8,600, after the snow the the fighting and some illnesses -- is too large for this city's market to supply for long. They need a plan for how to sustain themselves beyond just raiding the mountainous countryside, where supplies exist but will also run out.

At a meeting of the army, they understandably decide -- exactly as infantry thousands of years later can relate -- that they have marched as much as they really prefer to do.

The first speaker was Antileon of Thurii. He rose and said: "For my part, sirs, I am weary by this time of getting kit together and packing up for a start, of walking and running and carrying heavy arms, and of tramping along in line, or mounting guard, and doing battle. The sole desire I now have is to cease from all these pains, and for the future, since here we have the sea before us, to sail on and on, 'stretched out in sleep,' like Odysseus, and so to find myself in Hellas." When they heard these remarks, the soldiers showed their approval with loud cries of "well said," and then another spoke to the same effect, and then another, and indeed all present. Then Cheirisophus got up and said: "I have a friend, sirs, who, as good hap will have it, is now high admiral, Anaxibius. If you like to send me to him, I think I can safely promise to return with some men-of-war and other vessels which will carry us. All you have to do, if you are really minded to go home by sea, is to wait here till I come. I will be back ere long." The soldiers were delighted at these words, and voted that Cheirisophus should set sail on his mission without delay.

Xenophon speaks and gets the army to adopt several sensible resolutions about the raiding: the securing of the camp, the provision for reinforcements in case a raiding party gets overwhelmed, and so forth. He also suggests letting the nearby Greek governments know they might want to march the rest of the way, in case the ship idea doesn't work out, and that those local governments might want to fix up the roads to speed the hungry army on its way. The army is not pleased with the latter suggestion, but Xenophon is wise enough to send to the local governments anyway -- and they are wise enough to see the wisdom of fixing the roads so the army can get quickly out of their territory.

So when, sure enough, Cheirisophus' idea doesn't work out, the army tries to buy or source ships of its own. They end up only with one, which they can put support units on but not nearly the whole body of troops. Thus, a march is in the offing after all. 

They sell all the slaves they had taken -- I think sadly upon the 'beloved' Kurdish women (and boys) that Xenophon mentioned being smuggled along, although perhaps some of them really were beloved and remained with the army. We have noticed their piety and its efficacy; it should be noted here that they set aside a portion of the profits from the slave sale to Apollo and Artemis of the Ephesians. We learn that Xenophon gave a sum to be managed also by the priests of Apollo, which they used for a long time but later returned to him. A surprising fact mentioned in passing is that Xenophon later bought an estate and lived peacefully in this country that the Ten Thousand ravaged later during his time of exile from Sparta. 

Then the army starts marching west towards Hellas, their ship following offshore with the support troops, those above forty years' age, the sick, and noncombatants. They march upon nicely repaired roads at first, because of the wisdom of local city fathers in wanting to speed them along. 

There is then some very stiff fighting as they force their way through non-Greek lands again. At times they are able to win allies among the local populations, just as we did in Iraq: even within a tribe, let alone a people, you can usually find minor cousins who would prefer to be the major cousins. Some tough wars against fortified positions that are heavily guarded ensue, the Greeks pulling through thanks again to what Xenophon describes as divine intervention: a fire breaks out, inspiring the Greeks' use of additional fires they set on purpose. 

The Minority

The extremely Asheville Citizen Times (not a typo) is trumpeting this piece on how to resist Trump’s administration. Did you know that less than 32% of eligible voters voted for Trump in last year’s election? Sure, a clean majority of those who voted chose to vote for him; but if we assume that everyone who didn’t vote also preferred not to have Trump over Biden/Harris, that gives us a strong supermajority of eligible voters who didn’t endorse Trump. 

Once you have made that leap of logic, the rest is easy!

Zeitgeist

The comments sections for various NYT puzzles gives me a daily peek into a certain demographic's hot takes on the political stories of the day. On quiet days, people discuss the puzzles. Every few days there's a little desultory virtue-signaling about the sad state of affairs in the U.S., with commiseration from the world-wide audience.

Predictably, they've been riled up this week over the cruel and inexplicable budget cuts that are separating U.S. federal workers from jobs they rightfully own for life. They're just slashing blindly! They're not even commissioning half-billion-dollar efficiency studies that will last for years and be studied for years longer! But today there's an unprecedented flood of outrage over the very concept of workers having to state in a few simple words what they accomplished during the past week. They're lying awake stewing over it; they're trying to decide whether they should refuse to answer out of principle. They can't imagine who this upstart is who is demanding to know what they do that even they consider of any value. How could this childish clown possibly comprehend the subtle worth of their efforts, even if they could bring themselves to jot them down?

On Twitter, someone working on a DOGE-associated task posted a tongue-in-cheek inquiry about how he would begin in describing the incredible progress of his last week. Musk responded that he'd be fine, and that in any case DOGE was setting a low bar: he really hoped primarily to identify a small group that could respond in comprehensible English demonstrating a grasp of the point of the inquiry.

In many online venues, most of what I read is bemoaning the sad fate of federal workers with mortgages they can barely handle. They don't even bother explaining what they're doing that anyone would miss. Why is my job important? Because of my paycheck, of course.