Sic transit gloria Mundi.
How Safe is the US Compared to Europe?
The Economist poses a novel dataset as a partial answer to the question (archive version because of paywall; original is here for subscribers).
Short answer: if you're interested in how safe you are walking down the street or operating a business, no, probably not. Murder rates are higher in US cities -- again, it's a few neighborhoods in a few cities driving those numbers up in the US -- but murderers usually know their victims. Your house is far more likely to be robbed in a European city than in an American one. Your business is far more likely to be robbed in London than in New York City, and even Chicago and LA are less likely to involve a business robbery than the capitol of the UK.
Only Chicago ranks among the worst European cities -- and below both Paris and London -- for how likely you are to be robbed on the street. Vehicle theft is more likely in Chicago and LA than in Europe, but on the other hand, Americans are more likely to own a vehicle to steal.
The set doesn't include other offenses we might care about: assault, battery, violent sexual assault or rape. However, the picture that comes out overall is not the one you normally get from the press. If you compared the rural US, which has violent crime rates around half of our city average (i.e. not our very worst cities like Chicago), the safety of Americans would be even more stark.
Another Noble Victory
A judge rules the 'ghost gun' ban by the Biden administration to be unconstitutional. Most importantly, this governs the construction or finishing of your own firearms at home.
State-level restrictions may remain, as with last week's victory; and once again, the judge's order might only apply to parties to the suit, which is a potential problem if you aren't a member of one of the organizations that sued.
Scales, Eyes
Long-time Milblogger CDR Salamander points out that this is really an indictment of the schools she attended rather than of her, herself. All those student loans were ill-spent if she came away thinking that Russia wasn't a colonial power. "I think it’s fair to say that they left her with a poor understanding of Chinese, Arab, and Turkish imperialism as well," he adds. "We can just assume Aztec imperialism was ignored as a cherry on top."
A Partial Answer
Last week we were talking about the divergence between polling results and the electoral outcomes in the Hong race. Partly, it turns out, it's because some of the polls were what is called in military provenance an "Information Operation."
Median Strategies was created as a short-term social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification.Thank you for your understanding.
Believe me, the last thing they want is for people to understand what that means.
An Era of Peace and Safety
One would not get the impression from the news that we were living through a historic era of peace, nonviolence, and safety. Apparently we are!
Emphasis not added. That's the headline.
The FBI estimates that murder fell 18 percent in 2025 compared to 2024. There was an estimated 9 percent drop in overall violent crime and a 12 percent drop in overall property crime.Overall, it was the largest percentage point drop in murder, violent crime and property crime ever recorded. With murder you have to go all the way back to 2024 to find the previous largest one-year drop in murder and before that the previous largest one-year drop was in 2023....I wrote about this as well a few months ago here and noted the unreliability of those mid-1950s estimates and that the more modern estimates really begin in 1958. I think it’s fair to say that the US murder rate in 2025 was roughly the lowest ever recorded and there probably won’t be any ambiguity when the 2026 data is released next year.
Emphasis added. His project includes an attempt to estimate what the FBI statistics will look like going forward, which his method has shown success at with this year's data. So next year, he estimates this based on what we've seen so far of 2026:
The 2026 US Murder Rate Will Be By Far The Lowest Ever Recorded
...The 2025 murder rate should come in at between 4.1 and 4.4 per 100k while the 2026 murder rate should come in at an astonishing 3 to 3.8 per 100k based on the currently available data. Could that change? Yes. Is it a sensible forecast given all we currently know? Also yes. Will the 2026 rate be substantially lower than anything we've ever recorded (FBI murder estimates back to 1960)? Almost certainly yes.
Emphasis not added. That's the headline.
All of this at least correlates with a vast expansion of the number of firearms owned by private citizens, now well more than one per person, almost all of them unregistered (more than 393 million unregistered firearms, that is). The historically low murder rate correlates as well as with SCOTUS' expansion of gun rights -- including the insistence in Bruen that states, even New York, allow for some form of concealed carry rights by citizens.
As I have pointed out in the past, America was already a very safe nation. The illusion presented by the news is a version of the availability heuristic: we have a lot of news when things go wrong, so a lot of information. The fact that things go right almost always almost everywhere generates no information for our brains, and indeed happens at such a scale that it is beyond human comprehension. Hundreds of millions of people live together in peace and safety every day. We can't calculate that, or comprehend it as a whole against which to measure the rare exception.
A fact about the United States that is apparently difficult to grasp is that almost all homicide happens in a very small number of neighborhoods. Most American counties have a murder rate of zero -- not zero percent, zero murders. The vast majority of the remnant have very few murders. The murder rate of the United States as a whole is driven as high as it is not even by a few bad cities. It is driven there by a few neighborhoods within a few cities. For the most part, America has no violence problem, no 'gun violence' problem, no crime problem.
An armed society is a polite society. Ours is getting downright peaceful. Too bad no one knows it.
Democratizing War
Russians have apparently decided that it's not safe to keep accounts on deposit in the wake of the Kremlin's financial woes. (WPost paywall; archive version here.)
Total withdrawals this year could nearly double the amount taken out in the first year of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to Taras Skvortsov, a senior executive at Sberbank, Russia’s biggest retail financial institution.The withdrawals are causing liquidity problems, according to Skvortsov and a former senior Russian finance official, overstretching a financial sector already strained by increasing levels of bad debts following a government-directed lending boom to ramp up military output.... Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser to the Russian Central Bank, said the withdrawals reflected deepening fear among the Russian public.“It means people have no trust in the Russian banking system or in the Russian financial system,” Prokopenko said. “This is all a consequence of the fear that the government will do something with the banking system, that it could nationalize deposits.”
It's not just ordinary Russians, either.
Now, big businesses are also seeking to move money out of the reach of Russian regulators as anxiety grows over potential asset seizures. That is further exacerbating the problems, the former official said.In all, more than $9.4 billion was transferred out of Russia in the second quarter of 2026, according to Central Bank data.
Emphasis added. Ordinary people who pull their money can put it in the mattress or bury it, but big businesses can remove it from the country's financial system altogether.
Russia looks likely to be the first domino to fall in the new era of war made possible by drones. Wretchard argues that the effect of democratizing precision weapons could, ironically, be to limit state power in a way that benefits us all. The nation state cheerily sacrifices its citizens for its goals, but now starting a war like this can imperil the nation's survival even if another opposing army can't arise to conquer it.
Ironically the proliferation of precision weapon is a fact that can be used for peace. China for example, cannot assume that it can take Taiwan without putting the Communist Party of China at risk. The lesson of Ukraine is don't invade Taiwan.
The US has attempted to limit its engagement in the Gulf because it, at some level, understands this.
The natural order of the world in an era of mutual vulnerability should be one of trade and grudging peace. The fact that it is not, I think (and I may be wrong) is due to the legacy habits of the 20th century when "special military operations" were in fact possible and also to the fanatical irrationality of apocalyptic cults.
Here, knowingly or not, he is echoing anarchist Edward Abbey's endorsement of the civilian ownership of rifles and firearms in general.
It's a tool of equality, in other words. Edward Abbey said that was common to rifles:
The tank, the B-52, the fighter-bomber, the state-controlled police and military are the weapons of dictatorship. The rifle is the weapon of democracy. Not for nothing was the revolver called an "equalizer." Egalite implies liberte. And always will. Let us hope our weapons are never needed — but do not forget what the common people of this nation knew when they demanded the Bill of Rights: An armed citizenry is the first defense, the best defense, and the final defense against tyranny.
Emphasis added.
It'll be a good day when nation states fear to start wars because they know that the most likely effect is neither victory nor defeat, but the death of the leaders themselves -- as Iran's mullah's have learned, though their replacements still fight on. After that war finally grinds to its end, however, what political leadership will be eager to start another? They'll be the first ones to die, as likely as not. Defanging the nation state could be the start of a better world, just as an armed citizenry here at home has led to an era of unprecedented peace and safety (see next post).
A Non-Mystery about Tryggvason
I guess it's hard to get published without claiming that there's some unknown to be solved, or a mystery to be explored, or novel information to be had. This time there really isn't. (H/t: Hot Air)
At [the center of the naval battle at Svolder] stood Tryggvason’s great warship, the Long Serpent, one of the most famous vessels in saga literature. Enemy ships closed in from all sides, capturing Norwegian ships one by one until only Olaf’s flagship remained.From there, the king is said to have fought on the deck of his ship while his fleet was destroyed around him. But aggressors had the upper hand. Most accounts agree on the basic ending. Olaf disappeared into the sea.“Everybody thinks that he jumped overboard and drowned because he was wearing full armour,” Hollway says.This remains the view accepted by most historians. But not all.
When I saw the headline -- "He Was One of the Greatest Viking Warlords and His Death Is Still a Mystery" -- I thought the article was going to be about Sven Forkbeard. We know when Sven died, in England at the very height of his powers, but we have conflicting sources about how. Some say he'd been hiding a long illness, others that he fell off a horse. Either or both could be true.
Olaf Tryggvason's death, by contrast, is clearly recorded in the Heimskringla. Snorri has quite specific details about the whole thing, a matter on which he seems well-informed. Some of the Heimskringla shades into legendaria -- Odin is mentioned towards the beginning as a founder of the kingly line in Norway -- but that is mostly confined to the early books. By the time of Tryggvason, Snorri is writing solidly about history.
Kolbjorn the marshal, who had on clothes and arms like the kings, and was a remarkably stout and handsome man, went up to king on the quarter-deck. The battle was still going on fiercely even in the forehold. But as many of the earl's men had now got into the Serpent as could find room, and his ships lay all round her, and few were the people left in the Serpent for defence against so great a force; and in a short time most of the Serpent's men fell, brave and stout though they were. King Olaf and Kolbjorn the marshal both sprang overboard, each on his own side of the ship; but the earl's men had laid out boats around the Serpent, and killed those who leaped overboard. Now when the king had sprung overboard, they tried to seize him with their hands, and bring him to Earl Eirik; but King Olaf threw his shield over his head, and sank beneath the waters. Kolbjorn held his shield behind him to protect himself from the spears cast at him from the ships which lay round the Serpent, and he fell so upon his shield that it came under him, so that he could not sink so quickly. He was thus taken and brought into a boat, and they supposed he was the king. He was brought before the earl; and when the earl saw it was Kolbjorn, and not the king, he gave him his life. At the same moment all of King Olaf's men who were in life sprang overboard from the Serpent; and Thorkel Nefia, the king's brother, was the last of all the men who sprang overboard. It is thus told concerning the king by Halfred:—
"The Serpent and the Crane
Lay wrecks upon the main.
On his sword he cast a glance,—
With it he saw no chance.
To his marshal, who of yore
Many a war-chance had come o'er,
He spoke a word—then drew in breath,
And sprang to his deep-sea death."
The following chapter gives eyewitness reports of his death. It describes a rumor that spread at the time that the king might have slipped out his mail-coat underwater -- try that sometime, if you have access to a hauberk of mail! Be sure you have a friend to pull you back out again, because you won't be able to do it -- and somehow escaped, but it also contains a poem scolding people for raising such stories that was written by one of Olaf's own skalds.
A Trill in the River
When I was a boy, we had a creek behind our house that had some stone cascades in it. I used to walk down with my dog and watch the water shooting across the stones, a cool place to spend hot summer days like these. You'd sit and watch the water, and watching it you would notice persistent shapes -- trills, you might call them -- that leapt up and curled as the water pressed against the stones just-so in its rush.
Imagine that scene, or whatever version of it you grew up with yourself. Watching water flow over stones is almost universal among humanity. Imagine watching such a trill, and then you hear a rock upriver shift in the flow. This changes the pattern of the river ever-so-slightly, but the trill you were admiring for its beauty and perfect curves suddenly vanishes and can never be restored by anything you can do.
Such, I realize tonight, is the human condition. We are like the trills in the river. All the parts of us that were us are already long gone down the flow. All the parts that are us are just coming to be us, will be part of us very briefly and will then flow on accordingly. And someday, when something in the world changes just-so, the trill itself will vanish and no human effort will be able to bring us back.
But what is it to love a trill? What is it to mourn one? What reality did it ever really have? It was just a shape of moving water.
The Ballad of 155mm
D29 links a story ultimately from ProPublica about a failed Texas ammunition factory. The problem is that it was built with Turkish robots, which in a normal year the very phrase "Turkish robots" would have caused eyebrows to raise in shock and surprise. They didn't work, which wouldn't have surprised anyone.
The robots, giant metal arms with clamps for hands, would end up drenched in oil, which would then — no surprise — combust as they moved steel blocks heated to 1,800 degrees into and out of a machine that periodically erupted columns of fire. One blaze that summer melted a robot’s cables, putting it out of commission for a week....[E]mployees were already used to spectacular mishaps, fiery and otherwise. “After the second, third, fourth time, it just became almost normal,” one former worker said. “It got to the point where I was not surprised by anything that happened there.”Instead of producing shells in an efficient and streamlined fashion, the pricey machines kept failing in bizarre ways. The robot arms would swing out of control, smashing into carefully calibrated equipment, and sometimes they would unexpectedly drop hunks of steel 5 feet down to the floor. The factory’s signature device, meant to precisely stretch the steel for the artillery shells, instead often cracked it beyond repair.
Then there were the giant press machines, which required regular pounding with a sledgehammer to function properly but still botched the shaping of nearly every shell....
A short interlude, courtesy of Bugs Bunny.
To resume our narrative: why on earth would anyone buy Turkish robots to make high explosive ammunition?
The reason is that for close to three years now, the 155mm has been the workhorse in two great conflicts. The first is obviously the war in Ukraine, where not only Russia but the Ukrainians have been burning through gigantic stockpiles of heavy artillery. That war started in 2022, and at first it was an excuse for NATO to use up old stockpiles and replace them with fresh rounds. These things don't last forever, after all, so having new ones was a good deal and there were old stockpiles to use up. Russia is playing a similar game with its old Soviet stockpiles, still surprisingly deep in spite of all the decades of gunrunning.
But then in October of 2003, Hamas engaged in its act of blood magic and touched off a second regional war. Israel started using up 155mm as it went after hardpoints throughout Gaza. They make their own, but not enough of it. NATO supplies were already going to Ukraine. Manufacturers have been having a heyday ever since. It's a seller's market for anyone who can make it. You can sell as much as you can make or obtain. Both Ukraine and Israel have networks of scouts out looking for it through any channel that can manage the ITAR regulations and can offer a cheap enough price for their straining budget -- after all, they both need as much as they can get.
So it's a wise investment, increased 155mm capacity. Not just for the USA. Estonia has retasked part of its national economy to build precursors for 155mm ammunition. Some European factories are out of the filler explosive, so rather than build a factory Estonia is building filler and buying its ammunition in a kind of international barter. That way, if the Russians come calling, all of Europe's stockpiles will be bigger.
All that makes sense. Why Turkey, though? I can tell you that the only places on earth that have excess capacity lately have been Turkey and South Korea. The Turks make plenty of 155mm because they regularly use up old stockpiles on the Kurds (and occasionally elsewhere). They're not doing anything right now, so they've been available to produce -- but being an Islamic country* they don't sell to Israel, at least not directly. Indirectly adds to the costs (and also could violate international arms regulations), and Israel is already strained because it needs to buy more interceptors too. South Korea will sell to anyone, as far as I know, within of course the confines of international law (such as they are).
So if you wanted to find someone who had excess 155mm ammunition-making equipment they could sell you, it'd have to be one of those two for now. I imagine the Turks were quite a bit cheaper, and you all know the story about the government going along with the lowest bidder.
UPDATE: A sudden fire at an Italian factory that makes 155mm.
* The supposed Islamic solidarity against Israel actually isn't universal at all; Uzbekistan, for example, has historically close relations with Israel and remains quite friendly. Turkey is definitely not one of the exceptions to it, though.
Changing Dynamics
Forbes explores the sudden collapse of Socialist darling Hong.
Socialist Francesca Hong was heavily favored to win the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary Tuesday in betting odds and among politicos, but the few polls taken proved unreliable in a primary with several major last-minute developments that changed the dynamics in the race.
What were these dynamics? The changing roster of opponents in a crowded field, perhaps. The guy who won had actually dropped out of the race, then re-entered suddenly in spite of having never had any support.
Also, her anti-Thanksgiving posts had a news cycle right before the election.
Still, the guy who won had never reached more than half her numbers.
Perhaps this is 'changing dynamics.' Or perhaps it's the same dynamic we keep seeing in numerous other places; the recent race in LA for mayor comes to mind. A certain "F" shaped curve in 2020's election. There does seem to be an intelligible signal in all this noise.
UPDATE: Hot Air identifies these and more evidences of this signal.
Look, Hong is a crazy, but she's their crazy. If they'll cheat her they'll cheat you. Stand up for the crazy lady. It's important.
UPDATE: One of the polling firms has shut down and admitted that its operations were bogus.
Happy Red Plants
Just a small garden this year, but it's happy. These are San Marzano tomatoes, similar to but better than the more locally famous Roma. After this lovely photo I broiled them ruthlessly, combined them with red New Mexican chiles and some chiles moritas, a little salt, a little onion, and some home-grown dried oregano I ground for the purpose. Blended and then fried to reduce and meld the flavors, cool, and it's a delicious but mild sauce.
National Firearms Act Loses a Fang
For the first time since 1934, suppressors (usually called 'silencers' in the same way that rifles are increasingly called 'assault weapons') have been transferred without government approval. Gun Owners of America effected the transfers last night.
This follows a victory by plaintiffs (including Hall favorites the Firearms Policy Coalition) in Federal Court.
Because Congress eliminated the NFA’s making and transfer taxes for most regulated firearms in 2025, the Act’s remaining registration and recordkeeping mandates lack any valid constitutional foundation.FPC Statement: “This is a massive win and an important step forward in our strategic plan to end the NFA. We cannot wait to fully and finally eliminate this unconstitutional scheme so people can exercise their rights when, where, and how they choose.” — Brandon Combs, FPC President
The ruling was issued last week but delayed for a week to give time for an appeal by the ATF. The Trump Administration declined to appeal the ruling.
UPDATE: The NFA is down a fang most places. In 15 states (including mine, because of our lousy Democrat governor who backs every form of gun control he can) the Democratic leadership of that state is blocking transfers without the Federal paperwork at the state police level. That is arguably grounds for Federal prosecutions, not just another lawsuit: deprivation of rights under color of law.
Clear and Present Danger
The Washington Post has what might once have been a blockbuster report. It accuses the President of actually carrying out the plot of a Tom Clancy novel and movie, Clear and Present Danger.
The mysterious strikes targeting multiple Ecuadorian fishing boats near the Galápagos Islands this year were carried out as part of a covert CIA program, The Washington Post has learned.
While many details about the agency’s involvement were not clear, one person with knowledge of the matter said the strikes were part of a “covert action” program, a type of secret operation overseas that is approved by the president but where the role of the U.S. government is not publicly acknowledged. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the subject’s sensitivity.
No agency or government has claimed responsibility for the incidents, including the disappearance in January of a fishing vessel and eight of its crew members.
The CIA’s involvement adds a new and secretive dimension to the Trump administration’s otherwise highly publicized campaign against alleged drug traffickers at sea.
If it's true that there was a Presidential finding justifying a covert CIA program, there is no legal recourse. The CIA is authorized to break any foreign or international law under those circumstances, nor can the troops be prosecuted if they were transferred to CIA command for the duration of the action. So it's legal under US law -- the law supports covert programs as long as they're outside the territorial USA and authorized by a Presidential finding. All other laws are allowed to be violated under that section of our law.
This is how the Bin Laden assassination -- er, I mean, 'targeted killing' -- was legal. It violated Pakistani law completely, as well as Pakistan's territorial integrity and sovereignty and probably our treaty obligations. However, the SEALs who carried it out were officially CIA employees for the hours when operating under this law, and the CIA was authorized by a Presidential Finding.
So that is actually the plot of the novel and move summarized by the Wiki link above: the President and CIA Department of Operations is running a covert program dropping bombs on people and deploying snipers, while CIA Department of Intelligence doesn't know about it because they don't need to know about it.
Notice the ending: all hero Jack Ryan can do is testify to Congress about it. Nobody can do anything else.
Congress could impeach of course. I’ll pause while you stop laughing.
I said this would once have been a blockbuster story, and obviously Clancy assumes in his novel that the testimony to House Oversight would have some sort of serious consequences. How quaint an artifact of that age!
That movie is from 1994. The Monica Lewinsky story broke in 1998. I remember people still believed that such public revelation of Presidential wrongdoing was going to end Clinton's career. I vividly recall a roundtable discussion involving some of the biggest news anchors, and they agreed that if the story was true he'd have to resign.
NOPE! Suckers. The Party had the votes, so no consequences.
That ball has rolled down hill to here, where they can just do the plot of the novel and laugh at Congress from across town. Nobody else can do anything at all. Nobody has standing to sue, and no laws were violated -- the law specifically authorizes this. Arguably it is forbidden by international law, but that's just a phrase that means nothing because it's unenforceable especially against the President of the United States. The Party has the votes to block impeachment. No consequences will befall anyone even if it's completely true.
Too bad, in a way. I recall it was a pretty good movie, but the newly anticlimactic ending kills a lot of the plot.
Scars of Helene
It'll be two years in September, and three out of four small businesses that survived at all have not recovered to 80% of prior revenue. Many of them didn't survive to report at all, so the real economic damage is higher; new businesses have formed, though, as you would expect.
Circle of Bears Update
If you are interested in the Russian shadow fleet transiting the Arctic Circle*, the best source for now seems to be the one I started with, GCaptain. He has (they have?) updates and more information.
One of the tankers has already suffered real damage in spite of its icebreaker escort.
The incident resulted in an insurance payout of 53 million rubles, roughly $650,000, according to Russian insurer AlfaStrakhovanie, which did not disclose the name of the vessel.... The insurer said the tanker sustained hull deformation while navigating through ice and stressed that icebreaker assistance does not eliminate the physical risks associated with Arctic navigation.“Even with icebreaker assistance, navigation in Arctic waters is associated with increased hull stress and the risk of damage,” AlfaStrakhovanie said in a company statement (in Russian).... AlfaStrakhovanie said its specialists investigated the incident, assessed the damage and calculated the insurance compensation before paying the shipowner the full amount.... an icebreaker can open a navigable channel but does not eliminate the stresses imposed on vessels following behind.
Another of the vessels, the sanctioned Suezmax tanker Latur, is attempting the passage without insurance -- or an icebreaker escort.
Russia is also forced to import refined fuel, The Moscow Times reports. They are buying mass amounts of gasoline that have to be ground-shipped from Kazakhstan and Belarus (thus avoiding the strong successes of Ukrainian naval efforts at sea interdiction, all the more impressive given that Ukraine has no navy), as well as an even larger amount being sea-shipped from India. The reason, India Today explains to its confused readership who wonder why the Russians are buying up their gasoline, is that Ukraine has crippled Russia's refineries.
An additional effect has been that Russia has banned diesel exports to keep its own internal fleets running. Thus, exports are way down and increasingly perilous; imports are way up; and whole sectors of their energy income are closed.
* Lit. "the circle where the bears are," árktos being 'bear' in Greek; note "Ursus arctos," which they translate as "brown bear," is actually the Latin for bear followed by the Greek for bear, thus, "bear bear."
Medieval Studies
This graph compares modern city rates of violence with those of periods of Medieval Europe. The Medieval data is from here. I doubt its quality; the Thirty Years War, for example, should produce a very major spike that isn't evident. There may have been decisions taken to omit military conflicts, or the sources they used might not include that information. Nevertheless, the general picture of higher rates of interpersonal violence is probably broadly accurate.
One thing I wanted to look at compared with the chart assembled was the rural rate in the US: "US cities avg." only captures cities, which are notably more prone to murders than the countryside. I found some statistics via the National Institute of Health. It's the bottom-most line we are interested in, because the top lines look at either suicide rates or combined murder/suicide rates.
That graph gives the 'most rural' rate as a little below half the 'most urban' rate. It looks like just about exactly half if we take one step back from the 'most rural' to include some slightly less-rual places in the average. If we do the same thing for the urban side, for the 2010s -- which is the era the Medieval map is using -- the figure doesn't change between most-urban and second-most-urban.
Thus, we can reasonably multiply the 'US cities avg.' (10) rate by 0.5 to get a rough figure for 'US rural avg.' as an estimate of how country murders compare with the Medieval chart. That gives us a rough rate of 5, allegedly very slightly more dangerous than NYC but less than any of the other cities on the chart.
I have some questions about that too; but the NYPD reports that period as having been the record-holder for fewest murders until this year, when they are claiming a new record low. Since we have to assume that all of these numbers are somewhat dodgy -- there's no way we have perfect statistics for the Medieval period, when no one was really collecting statistics as such -- we'll go with it as a rough estimate.
Make of it what you will, I suppose.
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