We should oppose this law, and any other attempt to force government backdoors into our encyrption.
By the way, if you don't already use Signal, it's a pretty good system. From what I can tell, it's as secure as anything is -- which is to say, not perfectly.
Better Watch Out
This report that people are 'panic buying' baby chickens reminds me of a story about my grandmother. This was my mother's mother.
One time there was a special deal on baby chicks, so that they could be had for a penny apiece. She bought a dollar's worth, that is a hundred baby chicks, on the assumption that many of them would die before attaining adulthood. As it happened, every single one of those chicks grew into full-grown adult chickens. As a consequence, she had to kill and pluck a hundred chickens that year.
That's the sort of thing that can happen if you don't watch out.
One time there was a special deal on baby chicks, so that they could be had for a penny apiece. She bought a dollar's worth, that is a hundred baby chicks, on the assumption that many of them would die before attaining adulthood. As it happened, every single one of those chicks grew into full-grown adult chickens. As a consequence, she had to kill and pluck a hundred chickens that year.
That's the sort of thing that can happen if you don't watch out.
Masterful Storytelling
The brilliance of this cartoon is that you don't need to see the setup to understand the dynamic. No words are required, either. This was very well done.
I've been thinking about the old cartoons lately, and how well they were able to express things. This is a good example.
I've been thinking about the old cartoons lately, and how well they were able to express things. This is a good example.
Holy Week
I guess I clean missed Palm Sunday this year. Truly, Lent seems to be going on longer than usual. Officially Easter is on Sunday.
Maybe we'll have a miracle. It happens, I've heard; maybe I've even seen one or two. Maybe more than one or two.
Maybe we'll have a miracle. It happens, I've heard; maybe I've even seen one or two. Maybe more than one or two.
Breaking ranks
For a nice change of pace, one of the President's political opponents responds to him like a human being.
Earlier I predicted that, if chloroquine proved effective, the press would switch instantly to complaining that President Trump didn't provide it quickly enough. It looks like we have an intermediate step to get through, which is to suspect that he's making money off of supplying it to needy people.
Guns are Durable Goods
The British don't seem to grasp that.
It's a false economy in another way, too: how much is the ransom for a kidnapped royal going to cost?
Royal bodyguards responsible for keeping the outcast Prince Andrew and a number of other royals safe have had their guns swapped out for cheaper tasers, it has been reported.So you're going to replace the firearm you already paid for with a taser you're buying new? It's not like you have to replace these things very often. Even with regular training fires they last a long time, and can be maintained at relatively low costs.
The royal protection officers assigned to Princess Anne and Prince Edward have also allegedly lost their firearms as part of a drive to reduce protection costs for minor royals and politicians, the Sun reports.
It's a false economy in another way, too: how much is the ransom for a kidnapped royal going to cost?
Flyting
Language warning, although it's 500 years old.
The five sections to the compilation are devoted to religious themes, moral or philosophical themes, love ballads, fables and allegories, and comedy, especially satire. The latter section is where one is most likely to encounter the swears, particularly in the poetry of William Dunbar and Walter Kennedy. Both poets feature in the poem where the notorious F-word appears: "The Flyting of Dunbar and Kennedie."Flyting is not just "a poetic genre in Scotland," but in fact also Old Norse. Several of the surviving stories about the Norse gods involve them mocking each other in this way, especially Lokasenna (Loki actually did have sex with a horse) and Hárbarðsljóð (in which Odin mocks Thor while in disguise as a boatman).
Flyting is a poetic genre in Scotland—essentially a poetry slam or rap battle, in which participants exchange creative insults with as much verbal pyrotechnics (doubling and tripling of rhymes, lots of alliteration) as they can muster. (It's a safe bet at this art form.)
Dunbar and Kennedy supposedly faced off for a flyting in the court of James IV of Scotland around 1500, and their exchange was set down for posterity in Bannatyne's manuscript. In the poem, Dunbar makes fun of Kennedy's Highland dialect, for instance, as well as his personal appearance, and he suggests his opponent enjoys sexual intercourse with horses. Kennedy retaliates with attacks on Dunbar's diminutive stature and lack of bowel control, suggesting his rival gets his inspiration from drinking "frogspawn" from the waters of a rural pond. You get the idea.
Golden Ring
So this is a George Jones and Tammy Wynette song.
I never liked their version, but here's a version I kind of do like.
If you only know one Tammy Wynette song, it's "Stand by Your Man," more than likely. George Jones was a difficult husband and her well of inspiration to write that song was deep. This song, which takes a love all the way from beginning to end, is probably similarly inspired.
I never liked their version, but here's a version I kind of do like.
If you only know one Tammy Wynette song, it's "Stand by Your Man," more than likely. George Jones was a difficult husband and her well of inspiration to write that song was deep. This song, which takes a love all the way from beginning to end, is probably similarly inspired.
A Novel Finished
This quarantine has lasted long enough that I actually finished editing this novel. Now I suppose I need to make some decisions about how to publish it. I guess Amazon is what everyone does now, especially since no one can go to physical bookstores anyway.
If any of you have any useful advice or suggestions, let me know. I've never published a book before.
If any of you have any useful advice or suggestions, let me know. I've never published a book before.
Long Ago in Scotland
Today is the 700th anniversary of the Declaration of Arbroath. Longtime readers of Grim's Hall know this declaration well, but just in case:
[Robert the Bruce, and not Edward like the Pope thought], too, divine providence, his right of succession according to or laws and customs which we shall maintain to the death, and the due consent and assent of us all have made our Prince and King. To him, as to the man by whom salvation has been wrought unto our people, we are bound both by law and by his merits that our freedom may be still maintained, and by him, come what may, we mean to stand.It is one of the great documents of human history, from one of the best moments in human history.
Yet if he should give up what he has begun, and agree to make us or our kingdom subject to the King of England or the English, we should exert ourselves at once to drive him out as our enemy and a subverter of his own rights and ours, and make some other man who was well able to defend us our King; for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom — for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself.
National Tartan Day
It's National Tartan Day, which is an opportunity for Americans to celebrate Scottish heritage -- both our personal heritage, and the tremendous contributions that Scotland has made to our national heritage. Many states have registered district tartans that residents can wear, including both the state in which I was born and the state in which I currently reside.
The Carolina District Tartan
Georgia District Tartan
New rules in, but some old rules out
Minor silver lining.As Glenn Reynolds says, let's get to work making it permanent.
Not an OPEC fan
I can live with this:
Trump said Saturday at a White House press briefing he’s opposed OPEC his whole life, and characterized it as a cartel, or monopoly. “I don’t care about OPEC,” he said. He threatened to use tariffs if needed to protect the domestic oil industry, even as he predicted that Saudi Arabia and Russia would come to an agreement.
Test fail
The botched rollout of bottlenecked coronavirus testing is fertile ground for left-vs.-right bashing: it simultaneously shows that the Trump administration callously or stupidly failed to get the CDC to do something right, and that the CDC is the deadly, bottlenecking, calcified, politicized Deep State the Trump administration is saddled with. I remain unconvinced that testing is the most important thing right now, much as I would love to have the luxury of 100% knowledge of who in this country harbors either live virus or effective antibodies.
Powerline notes that the numbers from Japan and Seoul suggest that testing isn't brilliantly correlated with death rates per capita, which is a lot more interesting data than case-positive rates. Early on, fabulous testing might allow a few sparks to be stamped out before they spread; at this point, we're probably past that strategy. It's possible that masks, or other factors such as social-distancing, ICU beds or ventilators per capita, or treatments will prove more important:
Powerline notes that the numbers from Japan and Seoul suggest that testing isn't brilliantly correlated with death rates per capita, which is a lot more interesting data than case-positive rates. Early on, fabulous testing might allow a few sparks to be stamped out before they spread; at this point, we're probably past that strategy. It's possible that masks, or other factors such as social-distancing, ICU beds or ventilators per capita, or treatments will prove more important:
Perhaps these experts should look harder at the actual data and not just their models. The data certainly suggest more testing may not be our savior. Alternatively, the Trump administration should consider asking governors to mandate, not suggest, that their citizens wear face masks in public. South Korea’s and Japan’s experience suggests that combining this policy with one that more surgically isolated the elderly and most vulnerable while allowing most of the country to go back to work would provide more effective protection from the virus and at a far, far lower cost.
The case fatality rate for governments
From Ed Morrissey:
... Europe has rediscovered why borders matter and why government works best on the principle of subsidiarity. The borders lesson got taught the hard way, as I wrote two-plus weeks ago, after Europe and the US precipitated a massive refugee crisis by decapitating the Qaddafi regime in Libya. The flood of refugees from there and Syria created cultural dislocation throughout the Schengen Zone, provoking the Brexit push in the UK and setting the stage for their current disunity.
It should come as no shock that Germans expect the German government to prioritize Germans in an existential crisis rather than a super-national quasi-governing body. Nor should it shock anyone that the same is true for the French, the Italians, and so on. That doesn’t mean that they can’t work cooperatively to approach common interests and problems, but that in a crisis, they’re responsible to their own citizens first and foremost....And:
"... All these European rules need to be reviewed. In recent years, Europe actually made us close hospitals and schools. Then, in our hour of need, the citizens of Italy realized we are on our own."
Reasserting Constitutional Limits on Government
The Third Amendment to the Constitution is perhaps the one least violated by the government. Yet if the government ever wished to violate it, by quartering soldiers in private homes, it would almost certainly be during an emergency like an insurrection. Governments have an interest in suppressing insurrections, and in many cases it may even be legitimate that they do so. In other cases, governments that have violated natural rights deserve to be overthrown. But whether they are deserving or not, if a future American government desires to place soldiers inside your home to keep an eye on you, it will probably be because of an insurrection. An insurrection is an emergency, but it does not justify setting aside the Third Amendment -- it is precisely for such an emergency situation that the Third was written.
The present emergency has led to a lot of different levels of government violating the Constitution (and state constitutions) in various ways. Always this is said to be a temporary matter with which we should not be overly concerned, because there is a legitimate interest at stake and the powers are only emergency powers. That is not the way the Constitution is supposed to work.
This Reason article focuses on the Second Amendment, which is always in peril as the common right to bear arms is threatening to the powerful in every generation. But consider also the First:
The counterargument is that people should die if we allowed assemblies and 'merely' recommended against them. People may well. But many Americans have died to preserve these liberties, and not just while acting bravely under arms: in the Civil War, for example, disease probably killed more people than weapons. "As He died to make men holy, let us die to make men free," said the Battle Hymn of the era. Making men free was the important thing; dying was a small matter, even a bad death of disease in an encampment.
I have no wish that anyone should die, though everyone shall. But we must not lose focus on first principles. The only legitimate purpose for any government to exist is to preserve and enforce the natural rights. Any government that becomes destructive to those ends may be altered or abolished. This one has been pressing well past its limits. However wise the policy in terms of suppressing disease, if it destroys our natural rights it puts the cart before the horse. The function of government is not to preserve lives but liberty.
I am willing to endure a tactical pause while it seems to enjoy the democratic support of my countrymen. Soon, though, we shall need to reassert limits on the beast we call Leviathan.
The present emergency has led to a lot of different levels of government violating the Constitution (and state constitutions) in various ways. Always this is said to be a temporary matter with which we should not be overly concerned, because there is a legitimate interest at stake and the powers are only emergency powers. That is not the way the Constitution is supposed to work.
This Reason article focuses on the Second Amendment, which is always in peril as the common right to bear arms is threatening to the powerful in every generation. But consider also the First:
Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the government for a redress of grievances.The First Amendment addresses Congress, but it is supposedly fully incorporated against the states. Lately we have seen bans on worship services being held. That is a violation of "free exercise," and also "the right of the people peaceably to assemble." In fact all of these bans on gatherings of 10 or more people are unconstitutional abuses against the free assembly clause. It may well be wise public policy to suggest that people do not assemble at this time. There may well be an emergency; but that itself cannot be adequate, because governments can always generate emergencies when they wish to do so.
The counterargument is that people should die if we allowed assemblies and 'merely' recommended against them. People may well. But many Americans have died to preserve these liberties, and not just while acting bravely under arms: in the Civil War, for example, disease probably killed more people than weapons. "As He died to make men holy, let us die to make men free," said the Battle Hymn of the era. Making men free was the important thing; dying was a small matter, even a bad death of disease in an encampment.
I have no wish that anyone should die, though everyone shall. But we must not lose focus on first principles. The only legitimate purpose for any government to exist is to preserve and enforce the natural rights. Any government that becomes destructive to those ends may be altered or abolished. This one has been pressing well past its limits. However wise the policy in terms of suppressing disease, if it destroys our natural rights it puts the cart before the horse. The function of government is not to preserve lives but liberty.
I am willing to endure a tactical pause while it seems to enjoy the democratic support of my countrymen. Soon, though, we shall need to reassert limits on the beast we call Leviathan.
The Great Gold Robbery of 1933
It was conducted by the FDR administration against the American people.
Lifeboat rules
If this doesn't inspire residents to rise up and replace their HOA board with something more humanoid, nothing will.
That must have hurt
The New York Times article drips with doubt, but can't quite avoiding the conclusion that doctors find chloroquine helps. Michigan's governor caved a while back. Not even Nevada's governor wants to be seen now as obstructing treatment. Fact-checkers are racing to prove that no one seriously obstructed it in the first place.
Within a week, we'll hear criticism that President Trump has blood on his hands for not making chloroquine treatments both free and mandatory in all 50 states two months ago.
Dollars and lives
What "essential" means:
It really hasn't occurred to most of you that businesses fail from not engaging in business. This just tells me the socialist indoctrination centers (schools) have utterly failed to explain how business works.
And let me stick in a note here that no matter what you think of the type of business, they have employees who suffer first. Go ahead and get your hate-on about whomever, but the wage earners will be out of jobs.Quite soon we're going to need a combination of treatment options, targeted quarantine, and enhanced safety measures that let most workers and customers get back out at least partially into public, not just to buy food, but to support all kinds of economic movement.
What was that about supply and demand again?
This stuff is so intellectually challenging, that must be why we always get it wrong.
The reason we don’t have enough hand sanitizer is because something so simple is so regulated.
The FDA regulates hand sanitizer like a drug. Its ingredients are simple enough that it’s inexpensive most of the time.
But the regulations created a barrier to meaningful competition. And when demand spun out of control, there wasn’t enough supply. Prices soared and people who needed it were left without.Got to have those barriers to competition, or else some consumer somewhere might have to assume some risk, and some manufacturer might have to be exposed to dog-eat-dog competition. Price spikes are the price we pay for making civilization infinitely safe, and supply crashes are the price we pay for avoiding the dreaded price gouging.
Texas: Religious Services Essential
You guys have a good governor. Now take care doing it so this doesn't become a stick to beat religious people.
Bye, bye, ER
The sole ER in my little county (we have no hospital) just shut its doors, ostensibly because of concern that doctors had too little PPE gear. In fact, the medical staff desperately wanted to stay open and had made great strides finding PPE donations. So far we have zero reported cases in this county.
The ER has been operating in the red for the last year or so and has been taken over by its lender. The red ink results from the fact that the ER is freestanding and therefore ineligible for Medicare, in addition to which Blue Cross hates freestanding ERs and wouldn’t give them a PPO agreement on terms that would cover costs. The lender simply announced, without no warning, that it would shut its doors this morning and “furlough” staff for 45 days, helpfully adding that now they could pursue unemployment and other emergency benefits. I believe the peak for Texas is projected for May 15, i.e., about 45 days out.
The wokest Senator
Senator Tom Cotton was a voice crying in the wilderness:
On January 22, one day before the Chinese government began a quarantine of Wuhan to contain the spread of the virus, the Arkansas senator sent a letter to Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar encouraging the Trump administration to consider banning travel between China and the United States and warning that the Communist regime could be covering up how dangerous the disease really was. That same day, he amplified his warnings on Twitter and in an appearance on the radio program of Fox + Friends host Brian Kilmeade.
* * *
When the first classified briefing on the virus was held in the Senate on January 24, only 14 senators reportedly showed up. Cotton’s public and private warnings became more urgent that last week of January. In a January 28 letter to the secretaries of state, health and human services, and homeland security, he noted that “no amount of screening [at airports] will identify a contagious-but-asymptomatic person afflicted with the coronavirus” and called for an immediate evacuation of Americans in China and a ban on all commercial flights between China and the United States. Cotton first spoke to President Trump about the virus the next day. The Arkansas Gazette reported that he missed nearly three hours of the impeachment trial while he was discussing the matter with Trump-administration officials. The outbreak was “the biggest and the most important story in the world,” he said in a Senate hearing that week.
* * *
. . . On January 31, the president announced a ban on entry to foreign travelers who had been in China in the previous two weeks, while allowing Americans and permanent residents to continue to travel back and forth between the two countries. The measure was not as stringent as Cotton’s call for a ban on all commercial flights, but Cotton points out that the president “did not have many advisers encouraging him to shut down travel.” Advisers who were supportive tended to be national-security aides, he adds, while “most of his economic and public-health advisers were ambivalent at best about the travel ban.”
“I commend the president greatly for ultimately making the right decision contrary to what the so-called experts were telling him,” he says.Meanwhile, what were most of the other Senators distracted by? Well, you know.
Leadership failed, and by leadership I mean Comey
It was lies all the way down.
The FBI’s former chief of intelligence Kevin Brock, who served under prior Director Robert Mueller, said the new IG findings add to a body of evidence that Comey’s tenure at FBI was infected with a record of noncompliance.“
* * *
Not a single application from the past five years reviewed by the inspector general was up to snuff," Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, lamented. "That’s alarming and unacceptable."
* * *
For longtime FBI leaders like Brock, Comey’s tenure inflicted a culture shift that may take years for the country’s premier law enforcement agency to shed.
"This is not the way it has always been in the FBI. Very specific policies and procedures were written in the early 2000s to ensure the proper use of confidential sources, to assess their reliability and credibility, to protect against abuses and mistakes,” Brock said. “Somewhere along the line, actual practice drifted away from these protective policies. And management and legal counsel didn’t step in. Leadership failed.”
Mr. Cuomo has an epiphany
Now, whom do we know who's made a point like this one?
Naturally the clamor is for more government intervention to force American companies to supply critical goods. And yet in this emergency American companies are doing so voluntarily, when regulations don't stymie them. In the long term, we consumers will have to demand it by being willing to pay more for secure local supplies instead of cheap, tenuous ones.
“Where do we get the masks? China. Where do we get the gowns? China. Where do we get the gloves? China. Where do we get the ventilators? China,” Cuomo told reporters at a press conference in Albany.
“I don’t know how we got into this position.”
In another portion of the briefing, he sounded a similar alarm.
“Why don’t we have medical supplies made in this country? Why are we shopping in China for basic medical supplies?Perhaps he doesn't often think seriously about where the policies he supports lead us. I can imagine saying, "I see now that the priorities I gave different goals have led us to this emergency, so I'm painfully rethinking my positions." Nothing could induce me to say something as ridiculous as "I don't know how we got into this position" of relying on cheap imported Chinese goods. Any semi-sentient person knows exactly how we got here.
Naturally the clamor is for more government intervention to force American companies to supply critical goods. And yet in this emergency American companies are doing so voluntarily, when regulations don't stymie them. In the long term, we consumers will have to demand it by being willing to pay more for secure local supplies instead of cheap, tenuous ones.
An Objection
They don't really have the resources to enforce all these mandates, which have proliferated far beyond their capacity to deploy anyone to force the issue. At some point they are going to hit a psychological wall at which the ordinary person is going to stop obeying. What then? Shoot to kill? Gun stores are essential businesses.
"Men's Grooming"
Apparently people think beards and long hair will be fashionable by summer. You can't get to the barber, see.
I haven't trimmed my beard since 2011, but I shave my head myself and have since it became obvious that male pattern baldness was in my genetic destiny. (That's OK; anyone can change their pronouns, but only a real man can display male pattern baldness.) I expect no changes in my 'grooming routine,' whatever that is.
I haven't trimmed my beard since 2011, but I shave my head myself and have since it became obvious that male pattern baldness was in my genetic destiny. (That's OK; anyone can change their pronouns, but only a real man can display male pattern baldness.) I expect no changes in my 'grooming routine,' whatever that is.
Staff of life
We were running out of bread, and I didn't feel like going inside the store, and curbside delivery slots are a week or more out, so I made some easy bread. This isn't artisanal bread with my neighbor's tasty natural yeast, and I didn't fire up the outdoor oven, either. It's just the easiest possible indoor-oven bread with commercial yeast, flour, water, and salt. No kneading, just 5 minutes on a dough hook in a mixer to start, then about two minutes of work separated by 3 waiting periods. Start to finish, maybe 6-7 hours. It bakes at 450 degrees for 30 minutes or so, in a dutch oven with a lid, but you take the lid off to finish it. When the internal temperature gets close to 200 degrees, it's done.
Ad Auctoritati
I started not going out back on the 7th of March. In the time since then I have left my property on now five occasions, two of which were motorcycle rides in the mountains, one of which was a motorcycle ride to town to check the post office and gas up, and two of which were trips to the county dump. I could have skipped the motorcycle rides, but they were through open country air and I enjoyed them.
Today's trip to the dump (and the post office) was the first one of these made under the lockdown order. I told my wife that I hadn't minded at all engaging in all this isolation when it was my decision to do it, but now that someone is trying to tell me that I have to do it I find myself rebelling against it internally. I'm still doing it freely -- it was my decision to start with -- but suddenly I'm aware of a prick of irritation that wasn't there before. I suppose that is just my nature.
Speaking of arguments against authority, read Eli Lake today on how the FBI has proven it cannot be trusted to surveil Americans. I've met Eli a couple of times over the years. He seems like a solid investigator of these sorts of issues, and -- unlike me -- not inclined to oppose authority just by instinct. His questions are always informed, good ones.
I happen to agree with him here, but of course I do.
Today's trip to the dump (and the post office) was the first one of these made under the lockdown order. I told my wife that I hadn't minded at all engaging in all this isolation when it was my decision to do it, but now that someone is trying to tell me that I have to do it I find myself rebelling against it internally. I'm still doing it freely -- it was my decision to start with -- but suddenly I'm aware of a prick of irritation that wasn't there before. I suppose that is just my nature.
Speaking of arguments against authority, read Eli Lake today on how the FBI has proven it cannot be trusted to surveil Americans. I've met Eli a couple of times over the years. He seems like a solid investigator of these sorts of issues, and -- unlike me -- not inclined to oppose authority just by instinct. His questions are always informed, good ones.
I happen to agree with him here, but of course I do.
Taking one's eye off the ball
From Ixtu Diaz:
In the midst of this festival of frivolity, harsh reality landed in Europe. In just ten days, we discovered that neither the tampon issue, nor the participation of transsexuals in the Olympic Games, nor the climate emergency were real problems, nor emergencies, nor anything of the sort. They were just fictitious problems, the pastimes of a generation that hadn’t known tragedy.More and more my reaction to a lot of people's drama is "I don't have time for your BS." I have only so much time, attention, and resources to try to solve problems. Some pseudo-problems have dropped the bottom of my list, to deserve attention when the rest of the world has become perfect.
Michigan caves
Governor Whitmer saw the elephant, especially after the FDA also saw the elephant and authorized the use of chloroquine to treat COVID-19:
"When used under the conditions described in this authorization, the known and potential benefits of chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulfate when used to treat COVID-19 outweigh the known and potential risks of such products," FDA Chief Scientist Denise M. Hinton wrote in the approval letter.
Sweden Goes Its Own Way
This is interesting for two reasons. The first is that it will provide a laboratory for testing whether or not this approach is wise. If Sweden comes out ahead here, we may have to consider that our response ultimately did impose unnecessary costs on our nation in order to advance a misguided approach to the pandemic.
The other reason it's interesting to me is that Sweden is one of the premier countries held up as an exemplar by Bernie Sanders et al. Yet this approach is treated as a moral monstrosity when it is proposed by anyone here, or in the UK for that matter. How will they resolve the conflict that will create?
The other reason it's interesting to me is that Sweden is one of the premier countries held up as an exemplar by Bernie Sanders et al. Yet this approach is treated as a moral monstrosity when it is proposed by anyone here, or in the UK for that matter. How will they resolve the conflict that will create?
Hard Times All Around
Mexican cartels are really struggling.
The outbreak of COVID-19 has sent the price of heroin, methamphetamines and fentanyl soaring, as the likes of the Sinaloa cartel – and its main rival, the Jalisco “New Generation” – struggle to obtain the necessary chemicals to make the synthetic drugs, which typically come from China and are now in minimal supply.Even the cartels can't trust China, it seems.
“The cartels have suffered from COVID-19 due to the inability to get the regular shipments of synthetic opioids and precursor chemicals for the massive production of meth from China,” Derek Maltz, a former special agent in charge of the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) Special Operations Division in New York, told Fox News.
...
Obdola underscored fentanyl, which originates from China, has become the most coveted cartel commodity in recent weeks.
“In China, according to the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), around 5,000 illegal drug laboratories have been processing synthetic drugs and chemicals to process them. Most of these drugs have Europe and North America as the main markets,” he continued.
Pulling up the drawbridge
My county has now closed the boat ramps, not because it's seriously a public health risk for people to go out in boats to fish, but because leaving them open felt too much like an invitation for careless yahoos to come visit. New short-term rentals and hotel/motel bookings are also halted for the next couple of weeks. Right now this tourist town has no patience for tourists. Everyone remembers the Spring Break and Mardi Gras idiots. No one wants even casual contact with anyone he doesn't know and trust to have been behaving responsibly.
There's huge anxiety over a Corpus Christi TV news station's report of 2 "Aransas" cases. Wherever the guy got his information, the chances are they didn't know the difference between two nearby towns with "Aransas" in their name and "Aransas County." Much Facebook bandwidth is now devoted to nailing down with perfect precision where the two culprits, if they exist at all, are located at this precise moment.
I'm telling people it doesn't make the tiniest difference. We can't know exactly how many cases are out there. We already know there are some (probably so far not many) cases fairly nearby. That's it, that's all you need to know, and as much as you possibly can know right now. You don't need to know who they are or exactly where they live, and we're not going to put the tiniest effort into finding that out for you or broadcasting it. You need to behave as though the disease were present, because if it isn't yet, it will be, and you'll never know exactly where it is no matter how infallible you think the TV news anchor or some "expert" is.
Nothing about this news changes how you need to behave: stay home as much as you can, and wash everything you touch, for your own sake and for the sake of your duty to neighbors. As far as your own emergency medical needs go, you don't have any yet, so here's the plan: LATER, if you're short of breath, call an ER and arrange to follow their protocols for going in. LATER, if you have a fever, be even more careful about contaminating anyone else, including your household. If you have both, do both. If you have a fever but aren't short of breath, keep isolating yourself as much as possible, and be ready on short notice to contact the ER if, and only if, you get short of breath. If you never get short of breath, then you're pretty much golden, so don't borrow trouble. Just don't spread it.
There's huge anxiety over a Corpus Christi TV news station's report of 2 "Aransas" cases. Wherever the guy got his information, the chances are they didn't know the difference between two nearby towns with "Aransas" in their name and "Aransas County." Much Facebook bandwidth is now devoted to nailing down with perfect precision where the two culprits, if they exist at all, are located at this precise moment.
I'm telling people it doesn't make the tiniest difference. We can't know exactly how many cases are out there. We already know there are some (probably so far not many) cases fairly nearby. That's it, that's all you need to know, and as much as you possibly can know right now. You don't need to know who they are or exactly where they live, and we're not going to put the tiniest effort into finding that out for you or broadcasting it. You need to behave as though the disease were present, because if it isn't yet, it will be, and you'll never know exactly where it is no matter how infallible you think the TV news anchor or some "expert" is.
Nothing about this news changes how you need to behave: stay home as much as you can, and wash everything you touch, for your own sake and for the sake of your duty to neighbors. As far as your own emergency medical needs go, you don't have any yet, so here's the plan: LATER, if you're short of breath, call an ER and arrange to follow their protocols for going in. LATER, if you have a fever, be even more careful about contaminating anyone else, including your household. If you have both, do both. If you have a fever but aren't short of breath, keep isolating yourself as much as possible, and be ready on short notice to contact the ER if, and only if, you get short of breath. If you never get short of breath, then you're pretty much golden, so don't borrow trouble. Just don't spread it.
Cooties
Did the press really just melt down because a guy who converted his factory to mask-making read from the Bible? Talk about purity obsessions.
As Ben Shapiro said, “If you’re angry at the guy shifting over his factory to produce 50,000 facemasks a day for medical professionals, you’re doing being human wrong.”
As Ben Shapiro said, “If you’re angry at the guy shifting over his factory to produce 50,000 facemasks a day for medical professionals, you’re doing being human wrong.”
A Worthy Question
Do these closure orders constitute eminent domain, being a destruction of private wealth for a public good, and thus merit compensation? I’d prefer the answer to be “yes,” though as a taxpayer I’d be on the hook for it. Limits on government power even in an emergency are needed. Otherwise government can always manufacture emergencies whenever it wants more power.
A statistical argument for chloroquine
A couple of weeks ago, Dr. Roy Spencer noted an inverse correlation between malaria and COVID-19 in hundreds of countries:
If I sort all 234 countries by incidence of malaria, and compute the average incidence of malaria and the average incidence of COVID-19, the results are simply amazing: those countries with malaria have virtually no COVID-19 cases, and those countries with many COVID-19 cases have little to no malaria.
Here are the averages for the three country groupings:
Top 40 Malaria countries:
212.24 malaria per thousand = 0.2 COVID-19 cases per million
Next 40 Malaria countries:
7.30 malaria per thousand = 10.1 COVID-19 cases per million
Remaining 154 (non-)Malaria countries:
0.00 malaria per thousand = 68.7 COVID-19 cases per millionOne possibility is the impact of widespread use of chloroquine as a long-term preventative for malaria. There are other possibilities, of course, including heat and humidity, but there also is an indication that patient populations being treated with chloroquine are not coming down with COVID-19. At least, I read that during the last week, but it's getting harder and harder to find a search engine that will generate any "chloroquine" results that aren't deeply skeptical and full of spiteful references to the Bad Man, fish-tank cleaner, and the suffering of lupus and rheumatoid arthritis patients, even while chloroquine manufacturers are dialing up cheap chloroquine production to 11 and donating doses by the tens of millions.
“We Cannot Direct The Wind, But We Can Adjust The Sails”
Dolly Parton reads bedtime stories. Do you know about Dolly Parton? She’s really something.
Outlaw Cinema For the People
For the next two months, REBELLER is going to be free to read. The legendary Joe Bob Briggs writes there often now.
Lockdown Time Now
North Carolina's just started one minute ago, and is scheduled to last until the end of next month.
Begging bureaucrats for beds
I'm pleased to see that Texas doesn't have a "certificate of need" program. Let's make the bureaucrats seek a public referendum to get a certificate of need for a CON program.
A lot of things need to change. November is coming.
A lot of things need to change. November is coming.
Red tape, red garbage
How many examples do we need of why everything the government touches becomes shoddy, overpriced, and in short supply?
Supply lines
One of the things that made me the most nervous a couple of weeks ago was the difficulty of ordering food online. We routinely order a number of things that our grocery store doesn't stock, so when the grocery stock aisles got iffy and I wanted to avoid crowds anyway, my first recourse was to Amazon. It was disquieting how many things suddenly were out, from beans to rice to canned anything to almost any kind of cleaning supplies. I checked again today, though, and found supplies almost in an ordinary condition.
I've been using the local grocery's curbside service. It's clunky; you get a delivery date that's a week out instead of same-day. Once you choose your items, there's a very limited ability to add anything else you may think of. Substitutions and outages are still common. Still, there's minimal personal contact, which is safer not only for us but for the workers. Considering the conditions they're operating under, they're doing a great job and trying hard to be both conscientious and flexible. Our lurking neighbors (hello, lurking neighbors!) are being even more careful than we are, minimizing risk to themselves and to the 99-year-old materfamilias onsite.
Most of the county is being at least fairly careful. There is a growing resentment of outsiders who arrive from who-knows-where having practiced who-knows-what hygiene. My own feeling is that it's more important how we all act in public than whether we've been here for a short or long time. It's all about the hands and the face, and overcoming that careless tendency to think it's no big deal to be in public with a fever or a cough.
The local restaurants are trying to hold on by offering take-out and delivery. Controversy is brewing over whether it's best to support the ones offering discounts, or the ones imposing surcharges. Again, my own feeling is that it's more important to keep the restaurant enterprises together, so they can preserve jobs, than to supply the community with cheaper entertainment. If we just want cheap food, we're all able to cook at home. Food supplies became inconvenient for a while, but never to the point of hunger; mostly we just had to be flexible about substitutions. Because Mr. Tex and I cook most of our food at home anyway, we didn't feel the disruption nearly as much as many did.
I've been using the local grocery's curbside service. It's clunky; you get a delivery date that's a week out instead of same-day. Once you choose your items, there's a very limited ability to add anything else you may think of. Substitutions and outages are still common. Still, there's minimal personal contact, which is safer not only for us but for the workers. Considering the conditions they're operating under, they're doing a great job and trying hard to be both conscientious and flexible. Our lurking neighbors (hello, lurking neighbors!) are being even more careful than we are, minimizing risk to themselves and to the 99-year-old materfamilias onsite.
Most of the county is being at least fairly careful. There is a growing resentment of outsiders who arrive from who-knows-where having practiced who-knows-what hygiene. My own feeling is that it's more important how we all act in public than whether we've been here for a short or long time. It's all about the hands and the face, and overcoming that careless tendency to think it's no big deal to be in public with a fever or a cough.
The local restaurants are trying to hold on by offering take-out and delivery. Controversy is brewing over whether it's best to support the ones offering discounts, or the ones imposing surcharges. Again, my own feeling is that it's more important to keep the restaurant enterprises together, so they can preserve jobs, than to supply the community with cheaper entertainment. If we just want cheap food, we're all able to cook at home. Food supplies became inconvenient for a while, but never to the point of hunger; mostly we just had to be flexible about substitutions. Because Mr. Tex and I cook most of our food at home anyway, we didn't feel the disruption nearly as much as many did.
A Small Cost of Social Distancing
Yesterday I went for a motorcycle ride in the country. I came across a cow loose in the road, as occurs from time to time. I had a very strong impulse to stop, as I normally would, and help return the cow to her pasture. I generally feel a duty to do that sort of thing, and I wanted to do it. On any normal day I would have done it, but on this day I realized I had conflicting duties.
On this day, there was already a crowd of people standing around -- uselessly as far as I could tell -- and I could tell that it would be impossible to avoid interacting with them. They had clearly called for help, and were numerous enough that people would notice them and slow down (thus avoiding collision with the cow). Everything's easier to catch here than back in Georgia, where flatter land and wider rivers made it easy for livestock to get free and go a long ways. They probably managed the fairly easy task of herding one cow down into her pasture.
I rode on and left them to deal with it, with sad regret. It's likely enough we soon will have worse things to regret than the lost chance to help catch a loose cow, but I hated to go on without helping. I was one person there who really knew how to deal with the problem having dealt with that particular problem some several times before. I could have been a help, but this time I was no help at all.
On this day, there was already a crowd of people standing around -- uselessly as far as I could tell -- and I could tell that it would be impossible to avoid interacting with them. They had clearly called for help, and were numerous enough that people would notice them and slow down (thus avoiding collision with the cow). Everything's easier to catch here than back in Georgia, where flatter land and wider rivers made it easy for livestock to get free and go a long ways. They probably managed the fairly easy task of herding one cow down into her pasture.
I rode on and left them to deal with it, with sad regret. It's likely enough we soon will have worse things to regret than the lost chance to help catch a loose cow, but I hated to go on without helping. I was one person there who really knew how to deal with the problem having dealt with that particular problem some several times before. I could have been a help, but this time I was no help at all.
Crisis envy
If we can shut down the world to stop a virus, how come the public won't accept plans to cripple the global economy in service of climate alarmism?
I'm just spitballing here, but it's possible a lot of people genuinely believe in the danger of a contagious, sometimes fatal disease, and aren't just virtue-signaling about a trendy hypothetical threat. Even in the case of the virus, there are those inconvenient people who insist on continually checking our assumptions against facts on the ground, kvetching about shoddy models, and thinking about cost-benefit trade-offs.
Why? Because We Love You
Headline: "Why has the media ignored sexual assault allegations against Biden?"
I think conservatives are less hypocritical here, because their real objection seems to be the same one she's raising: why the double standard? Why is a guy like Kavanaugh subjected to a life-altering examination in the public eye even given that he faced accusers who fielded no actual evidence, but Bill Clinton and Joe Biden are ushered past security with a wink and a nod? Well, we know why: religious duty with metaphysical force.
She does at least get to the point of questioning the duty:
The conservative position as I understand it is that not all of these accusations are equally believable, and we ought to insist on some level of proof before deploying the very harsh sanctions we (at least sometimes, haphazardly) levy against the guilty. Harvey Weinstein is in Rikers right now, stripped of fame and wealth and freedom, and he'll likely die there. Jeffery Epstein would have died in prison even if he hadn't been killed. The punishments do really fall, sometimes, and they are sometimes life-ending punishments. Conservatives argue that such punishments should not be deployed without proof, and certainly (as in the case of Kavanaugh) not without corroborating evidence. I don't get the sense that they don't believe the punishments shouldn't be deployed at all.
The liberal position seems to be that accusations should presumptively or even always be believed, and career-ending consequences deployed, if the accused is the wrong kind of person. If they're the right kind of person, even hard evidence -- endless pictures, blue dresses -- should not be allowed to interfere with their exercise of freedom and power.
Perhaps I'm misunderstanding or misstating the positions; perhaps liberals simply can't believe (in spite of the obvious evidence) that a nice guy like Joltin' Joe Biden or Bill Clinton could engage in anything bad. Rascally, perhaps, but bad? Obviously they're not bad people, so they can't be guilty; and the evidence of our eyes must therefore be deceptive. (AVI's favorite, Slate Star Codex, calls that top-down processing.)
It does appear, though, the double standard is real. The accusations against Kavanaugh were unlikely, and some of them were implausible on their face. All the same, screaming hordes of liberal women came to try to force Congress to destroy him -- not just to refuse to promote him, but to impeach him, investigate and try him, find a way to send him to prison for the harm he allegedly caused the nice-seeming lady with the memories she recovered in therapy decades after the event almost certianly never happened. The accusations against Clinton and Biden are supported by physical evidence, which you can verify for yourself. No similar outcry is occurring. In fact, you can't even get the press to admit the story exists.
It is hugely frustrating to see conservatives, who couldn’t give a damn about the multiple sexual assault allegations against Donald Trump, weaponize the accusations against Biden. However, it’s also frustrating to see so many liberals turning a blind eye. The accusations against the former vice-president are serious; why aren’t they being taken seriously?Obviously because it's the only moral decision, since derailing his candidacy at this stage would ensure a Trump re-election, and that latter is literally the worst possible outcome. For humanity and the world, not just the country. It goes beyond patriotism, it's a religious duty with metaphysical force.
I think conservatives are less hypocritical here, because their real objection seems to be the same one she's raising: why the double standard? Why is a guy like Kavanaugh subjected to a life-altering examination in the public eye even given that he faced accusers who fielded no actual evidence, but Bill Clinton and Joe Biden are ushered past security with a wink and a nod? Well, we know why: religious duty with metaphysical force.
One obvious reason is that Reade’s accusations are very hard to prove.Yes, but Kavanaugh was accused of running a high-school rape ring that somehow preyed on college-aged women who gladly attended these high-school parties, while being a blackout drunk who somehow excelled in law school and rose to the high bench, and the star witness against him had no corroboration that the event she described had ever happened. Several of his accusers recanted, and the lawyer flogging the story is now in prison for defrauding his client. Mere difficulty of proof can't be the reason. Speaking of which:
You know who has talked publicly about the importance of taking women seriously? Biden. During the Brett Kavanaugh hearings, Biden stood up for Dr Christine Blasey Ford, noting: “For a woman to come forward in the glaring lights of focus, nationally, you’ve got to start off with the presumption that at least the essence of what she’s talking about is real.”It certainly would.
Does this presumption not apply when the guy being accused is a Democrat running for president? It would seem that way.
She does at least get to the point of questioning the duty:
[It is] hugely unlikely that Reade’s accusations will do any damage whatsoever to Biden’s ambitions. Allegations of sexual assault certainly haven’t posed any hindrance to Trump. The allegations against Kavanaugh didn’t stop him from becoming a supreme court justice. The allegations against Louis CK didn’t kill his career in comedy. And the multiple women who have accused Biden of touching them inappropriately in the past haven’t exactly derailed his career.In point of fact, there are endless photos of Biden touching women inappropriately. She's right, this hasn't done him any damage apparently.
The conservative position as I understand it is that not all of these accusations are equally believable, and we ought to insist on some level of proof before deploying the very harsh sanctions we (at least sometimes, haphazardly) levy against the guilty. Harvey Weinstein is in Rikers right now, stripped of fame and wealth and freedom, and he'll likely die there. Jeffery Epstein would have died in prison even if he hadn't been killed. The punishments do really fall, sometimes, and they are sometimes life-ending punishments. Conservatives argue that such punishments should not be deployed without proof, and certainly (as in the case of Kavanaugh) not without corroborating evidence. I don't get the sense that they don't believe the punishments shouldn't be deployed at all.
The liberal position seems to be that accusations should presumptively or even always be believed, and career-ending consequences deployed, if the accused is the wrong kind of person. If they're the right kind of person, even hard evidence -- endless pictures, blue dresses -- should not be allowed to interfere with their exercise of freedom and power.
Perhaps I'm misunderstanding or misstating the positions; perhaps liberals simply can't believe (in spite of the obvious evidence) that a nice guy like Joltin' Joe Biden or Bill Clinton could engage in anything bad. Rascally, perhaps, but bad? Obviously they're not bad people, so they can't be guilty; and the evidence of our eyes must therefore be deceptive. (AVI's favorite, Slate Star Codex, calls that top-down processing.)
It does appear, though, the double standard is real. The accusations against Kavanaugh were unlikely, and some of them were implausible on their face. All the same, screaming hordes of liberal women came to try to force Congress to destroy him -- not just to refuse to promote him, but to impeach him, investigate and try him, find a way to send him to prison for the harm he allegedly caused the nice-seeming lady with the memories she recovered in therapy decades after the event almost certianly never happened. The accusations against Clinton and Biden are supported by physical evidence, which you can verify for yourself. No similar outcry is occurring. In fact, you can't even get the press to admit the story exists.
What's the hurry?
I've been hoping every day for some word on how the 70,000 doses of chloroquine and azithromycin were working out in New York, because I'd read that they were delivered on Tuesday, March 24, and Gov. Cuomo said he was eager to get trials started. I was even getting worried that the lack of good news might mean the drugs weren't having any effect after all.
Turns out they haven't started using them yet. They're still working out how the trials will be structured, and hope to get started next week.
The Inheritors
Here's a piece by two generations of the inheritors of Bob Wills' tradition.
Merle needs no introduction. Dwight probably doesn't either, but just in case, he's the guy singing when the Terminator walks into the biker/cowboy bar (called 'the Corral') in Terminator 2. The song is "Guitars, Cadillacs," which is probably his biggest hit.
The bike he steals is a Harley Davidson Fatboy. That was the first bike I ever knew I wanted, and it was surely this movie that made it so.
Merle needs no introduction. Dwight probably doesn't either, but just in case, he's the guy singing when the Terminator walks into the biker/cowboy bar (called 'the Corral') in Terminator 2. The song is "Guitars, Cadillacs," which is probably his biggest hit.
The bike he steals is a Harley Davidson Fatboy. That was the first bike I ever knew I wanted, and it was surely this movie that made it so.
What A Man Can Do, And What A Man Can't Do
I want to point out that this is a sophisticated philosophical point, dressed up in pirate costumes.
It's more or less the essence of Stoicism. What can you do, this week, to deal with this crisis? You could plant a victory garden. You can exercise to keep your immune system strong. You could get out and enjoy whatever part of the glorious spring weather is open to you. You can call your friends and loved ones, and keep their spirits up, because they need it too.
What can't you do? Well, there's quite a lot. Learn to recognize it, and let go of it. You can't fix it. Focus on the things you can do, and accept the things you can't.
It's more or less the essence of Stoicism. What can you do, this week, to deal with this crisis? You could plant a victory garden. You can exercise to keep your immune system strong. You could get out and enjoy whatever part of the glorious spring weather is open to you. You can call your friends and loved ones, and keep their spirits up, because they need it too.
What can't you do? Well, there's quite a lot. Learn to recognize it, and let go of it. You can't fix it. Focus on the things you can do, and accept the things you can't.
Sometimes All Choices Are Wrong
Some folks are going hard against Dr. Brix, no introductions necessary, for suggesting that it's just possible that things won't be as bad as they seem. She could be wrong about that. Nobody really knows how bad it's going to be.
People are going to make mistakes during this time, even responsible people. Her mistakes are different than the ones you'd make, but if you were in her position you'd be making mistakes too -- mistakes that would cost lives, just as hers will. It's going to be important to understand.
This is true even for that most maligned of all people, Donald Trump. He's making mistakes every day, but they're not the same mistakes that the overarching governing class would make. That's useful, even if it's disruptive. He shut off travel from China; they all called him racist and said to be sure to attend the Chinese New Year parade in your local city. He was right about that; they made different mistakes. It's helpful to have the corrective on both sides, perhaps. Our disagreements may be our strength.
As far as she is concerned, she's thinking about the psychological strain and the economic one. Everybody's seeing an endless flood of doomsday stories, while they lose their jobs and the economy tanks. It's not out of order to point out that the data coming in suggests that it might not [see comments] be as bad as you've been hearing (day and night, if you follow these reports obsessively). People are seeing their lives ruined, things they've invested their hearts in destroyed. She's erring on the side of giving them hope. Maybe that's wrong; but maybe everything's wrong, in the sense that there's no free ride. Every choice imposes a cost in blood.
The strongest pillar of Christianity was always the fact that people knew they needed to be forgiven for the things they'd done, even if they did their best to do right. In harder hours than we've known but late, that was understood personally by nearly everyone alive. If God can't forgive us, who can? Can we forgive ourselves? Can we forgive each other?
We're going to need to do.
People are going to make mistakes during this time, even responsible people. Her mistakes are different than the ones you'd make, but if you were in her position you'd be making mistakes too -- mistakes that would cost lives, just as hers will. It's going to be important to understand.
This is true even for that most maligned of all people, Donald Trump. He's making mistakes every day, but they're not the same mistakes that the overarching governing class would make. That's useful, even if it's disruptive. He shut off travel from China; they all called him racist and said to be sure to attend the Chinese New Year parade in your local city. He was right about that; they made different mistakes. It's helpful to have the corrective on both sides, perhaps. Our disagreements may be our strength.
As far as she is concerned, she's thinking about the psychological strain and the economic one. Everybody's seeing an endless flood of doomsday stories, while they lose their jobs and the economy tanks. It's not out of order to point out that the data coming in suggests that it might not [see comments] be as bad as you've been hearing (day and night, if you follow these reports obsessively). People are seeing their lives ruined, things they've invested their hearts in destroyed. She's erring on the side of giving them hope. Maybe that's wrong; but maybe everything's wrong, in the sense that there's no free ride. Every choice imposes a cost in blood.
The strongest pillar of Christianity was always the fact that people knew they needed to be forgiven for the things they'd done, even if they did their best to do right. In harder hours than we've known but late, that was understood personally by nearly everyone alive. If God can't forgive us, who can? Can we forgive ourselves? Can we forgive each other?
We're going to need to do.
"I Do Love a Steel Guitar"
Well then Grim, I know a guy- this guy does one of my favorite versions of Wichita Lineman, and so I looked and found a good Texas Swing piece he does and with a fiddle too (of course!). Enjoy Greg Booth, with son Danny on Guitar and Bass and daughter-in-law Amanda on the fiddle , doing Boot Heel Drag (Bob Wills steel guitar man Herb Remington did it in 1950):
Sunlight
An unexpected effect of suddenly converting the nation's universities to online academies is that classes are being recorded and can be shared. There's a sudden panic over the suggestion by conservatives that students might want to share any egregious examples of progressive balderdash, because, you know, the public might not understand.
This was good: "The vast majority of academics are centrist liberals."
Yes, we'll have no virus
Russia has almost no coronavirus to speak of, but a strangely high incidence of pneumonia. Doctors are warning that it's time to get ready for the Italian scenario, but in the meantime as long as they don't call it coronavirus, it's all good. Call it a "banana."
We're going to get another horrible demonstration in how societies with different levels of trust and transparency deal with crises. I hope we draw the right lesson.
Interesting idea
Trump supposedly has told governors that he wants a massive sampling of the population to determine which counties have a low incidence, which might let us prioritize some counties for allowing more economic output and relegate others to tighter lockdowns. I can imagine something like this working, if we somehow avoided the stampede from more infected counties to less, which is a big "if." It would be nice to see goods produced by and shipped from "safe zones," even if the safe zones had to shift from location to location over time. But it's not like we have, or even want, county border guards.
Always With the Negative Waves
So there was a slight sword practice mishap tonight. Nothing serious, although I expect I’ll feel it tomorrow.
I told a female friend the story and she was like, "There's a scary pandemic that will probably sicken you if you go to the hospital, and you're fighting with swords on wet ground?"
And I'm like, "Yeah, after riding motorcycles all day."
I told a female friend the story and she was like, "There's a scary pandemic that will probably sicken you if you go to the hospital, and you're fighting with swords on wet ground?"
And I'm like, "Yeah, after riding motorcycles all day."
Statistics
It'd be nice if we had better evidence, writes a statistician.
Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction? How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop?
The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have....
One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric. At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.
In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.
The vast majority of this hecatomb would be people with limited life expectancies. That’s in contrast to 1918, when many young people died.
One can only hope that, much like in 1918, life will continue. Conversely, with lockdowns of months, if not years, life largely stops, short-term and long-term consequences are entirely unknown, and billions, not just millions, of lives may be eventually at stake.
Western Swing IV
Still more of the feel-good genre, with thanks to brother Gringo.
(This one I usually hear Willie Nelson do, but obviously he was following Wills' lead.)
(I do love a steel guitar.)
(This one I usually hear Willie Nelson do, but obviously he was following Wills' lead.)
(I do love a steel guitar.)
Did I mention bad regulation?
Nevada's governor has decided it's best if his state doesn't try chloroquine. No need to let doctors have any discretion.
Three guesses which party.
Adapt and overcome
I heard the President say the other day that, although he's activated the Defense Production Act, he hasn't had to use it. So far no manufacturer has said "no."
Ford steps up to help manufacture ventilators, using car parts.
Deregulation and safety
Bad regulations can kill people just as thoroughly as Wild-West unregulation.
The Last Most Hated President, and Merle Haggard
On the 17th of March, of whatever year that was. 1973 if the description is accurate.
Pelosi caves
As Powerline observes:
One can only imagine how bad the Democrats’ polling must have been to cause such a hasty retreat. The Democrats had no one behind them except their most extremist supporters, like the New York Times.
The Tide Pod President
The President said chloroquine was a promising enough treatment that, considering how widely used it had been for 70 years, was worth trying in hospitals by doctors. Its limited side effects have been studied for a long time, so we're not going to kill anyone with it, whereas it might help some people who otherwise look extremely likely to die.
Therefore if a couple in Arizona saw him on TV, noticed that their aquarium cleaner had a similar active ingredient, and ate from 10-20x the maximum recommended experimental dose (news articles have been talking about max 500mg, whereas they each swallowed a teaspoon, which is nearly 5 grams or 4000 mg), clearly President Trump killed them with false hope.
The product was clearly labeled not for human consumption. They chose a dose out of the clear blue sky. They weren't even sick. But the press is: very sick. This is a culture that will remove useful--even life-saving--products from the public sphere if unsupervised children of any age might hurt themselves by wildly misusing it.
Therefore if a couple in Arizona saw him on TV, noticed that their aquarium cleaner had a similar active ingredient, and ate from 10-20x the maximum recommended experimental dose (news articles have been talking about max 500mg, whereas they each swallowed a teaspoon, which is nearly 5 grams or 4000 mg), clearly President Trump killed them with false hope.
The product was clearly labeled not for human consumption. They chose a dose out of the clear blue sky. They weren't even sick. But the press is: very sick. This is a culture that will remove useful--even life-saving--products from the public sphere if unsupervised children of any age might hurt themselves by wildly misusing it.
Western Swing I
Some recommendations from Gringo. I'll put up Tom's in another post later.
Keep the recommendations coming and we'll do a series.
Keep the recommendations coming and we'll do a series.
Oxford: No Need to Panic
A new study from Oxford puts the hospitalization rate at about one in a thousand.
Repression
The French are doing it again.
France went into lockdown on March 17. The administrative state immediately generated an array of bureaucratic forms: a certificate to leave your house to walk the dog or go shopping; a certificate justifying your attendance at work rather than working from home. These certificates are to be carried on your person at all times and produced on demand by the authorities. As of this morning ‘confinement’ is being notched up again. Village and municipal food markets are to shut; leaving your house for shopping or exercise is limited to one hour and can take place no more than one kilometer from your home. The time of departure from your house is to be indicated on a certificate. Any infringement is to be punished by a minimum fine of €135 ($145), which rises to €1,500 ($1,615) for repeat offenders.Our own experience is mostly that the right response to this business is to eliminate layers of government rather than adding them. Bureaucracy isn't helping, and it isn't helpful.
Leverage
I'm trying to figure out whether Majority Whip Clyburn (D.-S.C.) really told participants in a conference call: "This is a tremendous opportunity to restructure things to fit our vision.” It's widely reported on right-ish sites, but attributed only to an anonymous participant in the call. The fact-checking sites and CNN have never heard of it at all, not mentioning it in any way, even to dispute it. This makes my antenna creep up: wouldn't Snopes normally have issued either a flat denial, or at least a weak attempt to "put it in context"? Why doesn't Clyburn deny it? Are the press afraid even to ask him about it?
There continue to be sporadic reports that the senators are "close to a deal." Pelosi is pounding the airwaves with the idea that Republicans are poisoning the stimulus package with pills. The rest of the country is howling about holding up relief checks for collective bargaining concessions, airline carbon emission limits, wind and solar subsidies, and corporate board gender quotas. The Pelosi poison-pill argument, when it's explained at all, has to do with insufficient "oversight" of bailouts to employers. That's an argument that could get some traction, unless "oversight" means things like corporate board gender quotas. President Trump strongly signaled that he'd like to see restrictions on using helicopter money to do stock buy-backs. Okay.
I'm in about the position I was in when we were rushing through the 2008 "stimulus." I hoped at the time it would help and not hurt too much. To this day I don't really know. If Pelosi kills this one, I guess we'll see what it's like not to print money for a change, but there's going to have to be some serious relief for people holed up at home needing groceries and lacking paychecks or savings. Maybe not for a few weeks, but certainly if this goes on for months.
When You Can, Buy Ammo
A friend who has until now not been a gun owner bought a shotgun. It's a 2/3" chambered Mossberg. There's no ammunition for it, not nationwide.
Lay the stuff in when you can, again. It gets short fast.
Lay the stuff in when you can, again. It gets short fast.
The World Loves a Working Man
It is somewhat humbling, or ought to be, to realize that the world would be just fine if you stayed home for a month... or forever.
For Gringo
Et al.
We should do some Western Swing for a while. Hit the comments with recommendations.
We should do some Western Swing for a while. Hit the comments with recommendations.
National Puppy Day
Normally I would not countenance foolishness like ‘national days’ (months, etc) of any kind, but just now I’m inclined to an exception in a good cause.
Niche angst
A/k/a, per a commenter, the "exhausting theatre of pretending to be tortured by minor, everyday events." An exquisitely woke rumination from the Guardian: this is apparently what happens to people who don't want to do work they find distasteful and don't want to hire anyone else to do it, either.
As another commenter said, "I'm beginning to think that our feminists don't really understand how labor markets work." But then again, who does?
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