I was over at neo-neocon recently and the topic of a new American revolution or civil war came up. It's kind of difficult to imagine how it would begin, and since Krag and some others seem to think it's likely, I thought I'd ask for hypothetical answers.
Here are my thoughts on insurgency / civil war / revolution in the near future.
I don’t see a new civil war happening
unless some states decide to secede. This isn't unthinkable (Texit, anyone?) but I think the states would at least try a constitutional convention first, and then if that failed, secede. That would be quite some way down the road.
There could possibly be an attempt at revolution, maybe in the form of a coup, but I doubt it. At least, not as a first step.
I think it’s more likely an
insurgency would be the way it developed. A small insurgency would probably be quickly crushed, but a widespread insurgency could develop into either a civil war, if it could somehow gain territory and regular forces, or a revolution, if it were widespread and popular enough.
An insurgency could be where it stopped, as well. We could be looking at a situation maybe similar to Northern Ireland. Possibly the insurgency could create no-go zones for the authorities, but not get any further. I think this would eventually fail, although it could take a generation or so.
It's difficult for me to assess what would happen with our current security forces. I've read a number of commenters on various sites who claimed that the military and police would be on the revolutionaries side, but that's not necessarily true. I think Conservatives are divided between those willing to go outlaw and those whose honor is bound up in law and order, even if it ends in results they find objectionable. It's hard to say.
I also think that answers the claim that Conservatives have the police, military, and gun owners, so the Left can't win. I think the fighting would be done by Conservatives on both sides, outlaws vs. law-and-order types.
I think it ends in disaster for several reasons. First, I don’t think enough
Americans understand or care enough about liberty to join the revolutionaries. If they cared enough to fight for liberty, they would have cared enough to vote for it before now. Many young Americans are
increasingly hostile to liberty, and many of the old are risk-averse. So
I don’t think it would ever be successful enough to draw in those
sitting on the fence.
Another reason is, without outside help, insurgencies never win, not
as long as the government is willing to keep fighting. It is only when
the government decides it isn’t worth fighting anymore and gives up that
insurgencies can win.
Instead, I think any insurgency or attempt at revolution would end up
being just another crisis the Left would not let go to waste, and they
would become more powerful from it. And we would all lose more liberty.
There are other disasters that could occur as well. The drug cartels
would almost certainly get into it, and what if Russia or China decided
to play by providing arms, money, advisors, etc.? What if La Raza took
the opportunity and made their “reconquista” a violent insurgency as
well? Bad news all around.
Anyway, what do you think? How does it start? How does it play out?