Socialist Francesca Hong was heavily favored to win the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary Tuesday in betting odds and among politicos, but the few polls taken proved unreliable in a primary with several major last-minute developments that changed the dynamics in the race.
What were these dynamics? The changing roster of opponents in a crowded field, perhaps. The guy who won had actually dropped out of the race, then re-entered suddenly in spite of having never had any support.
Also, her anti-Thanksgiving posts had a news cycle right before the election.
Still, the guy who won had never reached more than half her numbers.
Perhaps this is 'changing dynamics.' Or perhaps it's the same dynamic we keep seeing in numerous other places; the recent race in LA for mayor comes to mind. A certain "F" shaped curve in 2020's election. There does seem to be an intelligible signal in all this noise.
UPDATE: Hot Air identifies these and more evidences of this signal.
Look, Hong is a crazy, but she's their crazy. If they'll cheat her they'll cheat you. Stand up for the crazy lady. It's important.
UPDATE: One of the polling firms has shut down and admitted that its operations were bogus.
4 comments:
Flash drives and fumbling? That could be part of it, but Crowley won 52 of 72 counties, which would demand a lot of fiddling in a lot of places. Milwaukee would be easy -- lots of concentrated votes there -- but 52 counties ...
Like I said, there's a lot of noise. But it seems a signal keeps creeping through. Like in Michigan:
https://x.com/KevinKijewski/status/2087852021789380709
Yes, but the States have no Electoral College. If the Milwaukee count is skewed enough, it wouldn't matter that the other candidate won those 52 of 72 counties, he loses, the Milwaukee winner wins the State.
Maricopa County in Arizona has the same potential.
The Cook County vote is infamous for dominating the Illinois vote.
None of that is proof that those single counties do get their votes...adjusted...but the potential plainly is there. Only the votes in those single counties would need fiddling.
Eric Hines
James's comment points to another potential problem with the assumption of fraud. You have to believe the reported polls were an accurate indicator of the level of support for the candidates who lost (or barely won) prior to the election. I'm pretty sure that both El Sayed and Hong have roughly the same bases of support and thus corresponding roughly the same opposition. El Sayed lost counties dominated by white rural non-college educated voters (as well as black urban precincts) in MI which are the demographics pollsters seem to have the hardest time getting accurate data from.
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