Circle of Bears Update

If you are interested in the Russian shadow fleet transiting the Arctic Circle*, the best source for now seems to be the one I started with, GCaptain. He has (they have?) updates and more information. 

One of the tankers has already suffered real damage in spite of its icebreaker escort. 

The incident resulted in an insurance payout of 53 million rubles, roughly $650,000, according to Russian insurer AlfaStrakhovanie, which did not disclose the name of the vessel....  The insurer said the tanker sustained hull deformation while navigating through ice and stressed that icebreaker assistance does not eliminate the physical risks associated with Arctic navigation.

“Even with icebreaker assistance, navigation in Arctic waters is associated with increased hull stress and the risk of damage,” AlfaStrakhovanie said in a company statement (in Russian).... AlfaStrakhovanie said its specialists investigated the incident, assessed the damage and calculated the insurance compensation before paying the shipowner the full amount.... an icebreaker can open a navigable channel but does not eliminate the stresses imposed on vessels following behind.

Another of the vessels, the sanctioned Suezmax tanker Latur, is attempting the passage without insurance -- or an icebreaker escort.

Russia is also forced to import refined fuel, The Moscow Times reports. They are buying mass amounts of gasoline that have to be ground-shipped from Kazakhstan and Belarus (thus avoiding the strong successes of Ukrainian naval efforts at sea interdiction, all the more impressive given that Ukraine has no navy), as well as an even larger amount being sea-shipped from India. The reason, India Today explains to its confused readership who wonder why the Russians are buying up their gasoline, is that Ukraine has crippled Russia's refineries. 

An additional effect has been that Russia has banned diesel exports to keep its own internal fleets running. Thus, exports are way down and increasingly perilous; imports are way up; and whole sectors of their energy income are closed.

* Lit. "the circle where the bears are," árktos being 'bear' in Greek; note "Ursus arctos," which they translate as "brown bear," is actually the Latin for bear followed by the Greek for bear, thus, "bear bear."