The Ballad of 155mm

D29 links a story ultimately from ProPublica about a failed Texas ammunition factory. The problem is that it was built with Turkish robots, which in a normal year the very phrase "Turkish robots" would have caused eyebrows to raise in shock and surprise. They didn't work, which wouldn't have surprised anyone.

The robots, giant metal arms with clamps for hands, would end up drenched in oil, which would then — no surprise — combust as they moved steel blocks heated to 1,800 degrees into and out of a machine that periodically erupted columns of fire. One blaze that summer melted a robot’s cables, putting it out of commission for a week.... 

[E]mployees were already used to spectacular mishaps, fiery and otherwise. “After the second, third, fourth time, it just became almost normal,” one former worker said. “It got to the point where I was not surprised by anything that happened there.”

Instead of producing shells in an efficient and streamlined fashion, the pricey machines kept failing in bizarre ways. The robot arms would swing out of control, smashing into carefully calibrated equipment, and sometimes they would unexpectedly drop hunks of steel 5 feet down to the floor. The factory’s signature device, meant to precisely stretch the steel for the artillery shells, instead often cracked it beyond repair.  

Then there were the giant press machines, which required regular pounding with a sledgehammer to function properly but still botched the shaping of nearly every shell.... 

A short interlude, courtesy of Bugs Bunny.

To resume our narrative: why on earth would anyone buy Turkish robots to make high explosive ammunition? 

The reason is that for close to three years now, the 155mm has been the workhorse in two great conflicts. The first is obviously the war in Ukraine, where not only Russia but the Ukrainians have been burning through gigantic stockpiles of heavy artillery. That war started in 2022, and at first it was an excuse for NATO to use up old stockpiles and replace them with fresh rounds. These things don't last forever, after all, so having new ones was a good deal and there were old stockpiles to use up. Russia is playing a similar game with its old Soviet stockpiles, still surprisingly deep in spite of all the decades of gunrunning.

But then in October of 2003, Hamas engaged in its act of blood magic and touched off a second regional war. Israel started using up 155mm as it went after hardpoints throughout Gaza. They make their own, but not enough of it. NATO supplies were already going to Ukraine. Manufacturers have been having a heyday ever since. It's a seller's market for anyone who can make it. You can sell as much as you can make or obtain. Both Ukraine and Israel have networks of scouts out looking for it through any channel that can manage the ITAR regulations and can offer a cheap enough price for their straining budget -- after all, they both need as much as they can get.

So it's a wise investment, increased 155mm capacity. Not just for the USA. Estonia has retasked part of its national economy to build precursors for 155mm ammunition. Some European factories are out of the filler explosive, so rather than build a factory Estonia is building filler and buying its ammunition in a kind of international barter. That way, if the Russians come calling, all of Europe's stockpiles will be bigger. 

All that makes sense. Why Turkey, though? I can tell you that the only places on earth that have excess capacity lately have been Turkey and South Korea. The Turks make plenty of 155mm because they regularly use up old stockpiles on the Kurds (and occasionally elsewhere). They're not doing anything right now, so they've been available to produce -- but being an Islamic country* they don't sell to Israel, at least not directly. Indirectly adds to the costs (and also could violate international arms regulations), and Israel is already strained because it needs to buy more interceptors too. South Korea will sell to anyone, as far as I know, within of course the confines of international law (such as they are).

So if you wanted to find someone who had excess 155mm ammunition-making equipment they could sell you, it'd have to be one of those two for now. I imagine the Turks were quite a bit cheaper, and you all know the story about the government going along with the lowest bidder. 

* The supposed Islamic solidarity against Israel actually isn't universal at all; Uzbekistan, for example, has historically close relations with Israel and remains quite friendly. Turkey is definitely not one of the exceptions to it, though.