Wait, what?
I need help understanding something. I'm just a fragile woman, spirit broken by the patriarchy, and I lack the analytical skills that society unfairly assumes are the only valid cognitive skill for assessing difficult life problems. My glorious feminine intuition isn't up to the task of grasping how a city's police force can be disqualified by "conflict of interest" from investigating the claims of a prominent state official whose son is on the City Council. I'm not sure which party is involved, is that important? Can you big strong men help me? And then I need you to move a couch. Then shut up.
Rs win cloture vote on Kavanaugh
From the Guardian, which for some reason was the only source I could find that would lay the results out plainly:
Senate votes to advance Kavanaugh’s nomination to final vote.
The Senate voted 51-49 in favor of the cloture motion, which will bring an end to debate on Kavanaugh’s nomination to the supreme court.
The final vote on his confirmation could happen as early as tomorrow.
Support for cloture is not equivalent to support for Kavanaugh, so it’s not clear whether or not he will make it through.
A key senator, Republican Susan Collins of Maine, said she will reveal her plan for the final vote in a speech at 3pm this afternoon.There's also an FBI investigation supplemental executive summary out, concluding that there is no corrobation for accusations against Kavanaugh, but strangely enough I can't find a link to it on any MSM sites except Fox. So here's a link to Wolf Howling at Bookworm Room instead.
Don’t Miss October
Today’s was the most perfect afternoon that I can remember. Don’t forget to get outside.
The picture is from a while ago: I’m mostly steel horses these days. But it made me happy to see it again.
The picture is from a while ago: I’m mostly steel horses these days. But it made me happy to see it again.
Civil War Officers Recalled for WW I
Major James B. Ronan has an interesting military history blog. One short article on it is about two Civil War veterans who were recalled to duty for World War I.
He is apparently a member of something called the Company of Military Historians. Their 2019 annual conference will be in Columbus, Georgia, next April, if anyone is interested.
He is apparently a member of something called the Company of Military Historians. Their 2019 annual conference will be in Columbus, Georgia, next April, if anyone is interested.
Why oh why
To be filed under "We may never know what motivated this _____ to _______", here is Kevin Williamson's take:
Why did Dunham fabricate a story about being raped by a campus Republican? It is impossible to say. We can say that she did not choose to fabricate a story about being raped by a member of the Oberlin democratic-socialists club, or a young Democrat, or an environmental activist.
Is that relevant?
* * *
Why would the young woman in [the Rolling Stone] case fabricate a story about being brutally raped by UVA fraternity brothers? It is impossible to say. We can say that Rolling Stone did not choose to publish a false story about a rape allegedly committed by members of the Berkeley chess club or by a creative-writing student at Bryn Mawr College.
Crashing and burning
From Jonah Goldberg, at best a lukewarm sometimes-Trumper:
But that’s not your job, you supposedly objective journalists. You should care every bit as much about disproving the allegations of Swetnick, Ramirez, and — yes — Ford as proving them. Your job — as you’ve said countless times, preening in your heroic martyr status in the age of Trump — is to report the facts. If Swetnick is lying, you should want to report that every bit as much as you would if you could prove that Kavanaugh is. Because you’re not supposed to have a team. It’s fine if you support the #MeToo movement in your private time, but you’re not supposed to lend any movement aid and comfort, never mind air cover, in your reporting.
Now, I get that most journalists are liberal, even if they deny it. I understand that most think they’re just seeking the truth. But, dear champions of the Fourth Estate, you might take just a moment to understand that you need to be fair to the other side of the argument even if you disagree with it.
You might also consider why millions of people love it when Trump says you are the enemy of the people: It’s because of how you are behaving right now. You’re letting the mask slip in Nielsen-monitored 15-minute blocks of virtue-signaling partisanship. You’re burning credibility at such a rate, you won’t have enough to get back to base when this is all over.
More shoes dropping
Maggies Farm has two links about the recent testimony from ex-FBI senior lawyer James Baker. One reveals that Baker testified to the FBI's consultation with an "unusual" and "troubling" source before pursuing the FISA warrants to spy on Trump's campaign. The other reveals that the troubling source was the DNC's law firm.
Lacking the temperament
I'm reminded of the meme from various controversies, notably the Trayvon Martin travesty, that the problem with some people is they wouldn't take their beating.
She Must Be Tiny
In Canada, film of a pro-life woman being kicked down by a pro-choice protester. He succeeds even though he looks like he might blow away in a strong wind, but apparently he was bigger than her.
This is the sort of thing that works better in Canada. Don't get any ideas, American protesters.
UPDATE: She is, in fact, quite small. Her name is Marie-Claire Bissonnette, and here is her story.
This is the sort of thing that works better in Canada. Don't get any ideas, American protesters.
UPDATE: She is, in fact, quite small. Her name is Marie-Claire Bissonnette, and here is her story.
Problem Solved, Ladies
The Ayatollah Khamenei has heard your outcry, and stands ready with a solution to all your #MeToo problems.
I think you'll really like it.
(No disrespect to any woman who chooses hijab for herself, of course; one is free to do what one likes.)
I think you'll really like it.
(No disrespect to any woman who chooses hijab for herself, of course; one is free to do what one likes.)
The Decline in Civics
Another depressing story.
Just a third of Americans can pass a multiple choice "U.S. Citizenship Test," fumbling over such simple questions as the cause of the Cold War or naming just one thing Benjamin Franklin is famous for.The last one is a good guess if you didn't know, since Climate Change is frequently said to cause everything.
And of Americans 45 and younger, the passing rate is a tiny 19 percent, according to a survey done for the Woodrow Wilson National Fellowship Foundation.
Worse: The actual test only requires that 60 percent of the answers be correct. In the survey, just 36 percent passed.
Among the embarrassing errors uncovered in the survey of questions taken from the U.S. Citizenship Test and conducted by Lincoln Park Stragtegies:
* 72 percent of respondents either incorrectly identified or were unsure of which states were part of the 13 original states.
* 24 percent could correctly identify one thing Benjamin Franklin was famous for, with 37 percent believing he invented the lightbulb.
* 12 percent incorrectly thought WWII General Dwight Eisenhower led troops in the Civil War.
* 2 percent said the Cold War was caused by climate change.
Good Point
There is a report that Republican Senators currently cannot walk down the hall without crowds of protesters following them and shouting at them. In response, someone I've never heard of writes:
Imagine the rhetoric if conservatives were verbally harassing and stalking Democrats around. Shouting them down in elevators, restaurants, through the halls of Congress. If a random conservative had shot up a congressional bball practice, attacked candidates....Any similar action by Republicans or conservatives would be said to be the work of Brownshirts. They would be said to be literal fascists trying to destroy the norms of democracy.
Militant Normals
I haven't read retired infantry colonel Kurt Schlichter's book yet, but I am invited to a release party that Uncle Jimbo of BLACKFIVE fame is hosting. If any regular readers want to come, and will be in Arlington on Saturday evening, drop me an email.
The book blurb sounds like I agree with the basic thesis:
The book blurb sounds like I agree with the basic thesis:
They built this country, they make it run, and when called on, they fight for it. They are the heart and soul of the United States of America, They are the Normals, the regular Americans of all races, creeds, preferences, and both sexes who just want to raise their families and live their lives in peace. And they are getting angry...If any of you think you'd like a signed copy -- I'm looking at you, D29 -- let me know and I'll see what I can do.
For decades they have seen their cherished beliefs and beloved traditions under attack. They have been told they are racist, sexist, and hateful, but it was all a lie. Their ability to provide for their families has been undermined by globalization with no consideration of the effects on Americans who did not go to Harvard, and who live in that vast forgotten space between New York and Santa Monica.
A smug, condescending elite spanning both established parties has gripped the throat of the nation. Convinced of their own exquisite merit while refusing to be held accountable for their myriad failures, these elitists managed to suppress the first rumblings of discontent when they arose in the form of the Tea Party. But they were stunned when the Normals did not simply scurry back to their flyover homes.
A Tolling Bell for Trump/Russia
Megan McArdle writes that the NYT's leaked Trump tax documents show the product of a byzantine system more than anything else. But one thing I notice that they don't show is Russian connections. The NYT would have been trumpeting that as the top-line finding if there were any, but they don't. So the theory that Putin is holding a chain on Trump that goes back to compromising information about Russian money laundering looks to be dead, or close to dead, as a result of this leak.
Since that was the only part of the story that was credible to me, I'd say that in my estimation this saga is closed.
Since that was the only part of the story that was credible to me, I'd say that in my estimation this saga is closed.
A Disappointing Day
Today I've learned that my hopes to someday be appointed to the Supreme Court are never going to pan out. Apparently drinking in college, getting in bar fights, and similar things can be held against you in that regard. Fortunately, thanks to former President Obama, we know that cocaine and marijuana use cannot be held against you in your quest to become President; but unfortunately for me, I've never used cocaine or marijuana. I might have had some beer, though; and I can't promise under oath that there have never been any bar fights. Friendly ones, more or less. Just good fun. All the same, there might have been some.
Apparently this sort of thing is disqualifying. The latest story I've heard is that someone is alleging that K's frat may have hired a stripper to perform a "public sex act" at the frathouse, albeit after he had graduated and gone on to law school. I'd heretofore understood the Democratic Party's position on 'sex workers' to be that they should be treated with respect, which surely should mean that giving them some employment shouldn't be beyond the pale. I certainly don't wish to suggest that people who engage in such work are necessarily immoral or wicked, nor those who employ them; all the same, I've never been interested. However, I did once attend a birthday party where a stripper performed. I was 15 or 16, and so embarrassed that I fled immediately. But the folks who employed her were Volunteer firefighters, friends of my father's and pillars of the community insofar as they'd report anywhere in the middle of the night to deal with fire or accident. They just liked to see a pretty girl once in a while. They had no intention of assaulting her, and she was performing there of her own free will.
Catholic theologians can explain just why this is nevertheless sinful, although at the moment the Church might better avail itself of expunging the beam in its own eye than in explication in the mote in others'. In fact one might argue that the Church might have better employed strippers occasionally, as by all accounts it used to do, than to have handed itself over to those who didn't care to see a pretty girl once in a while. Lusting after the pretty girl who voluntarily performs for you can be handled in Confession; the assault on the children is unlikely to be as readily satisfied, even according to the most careful theology of the Church.
The Democratic Party is not covering itself in democracy here. Opposing sex and beer and rowdy fire may be moral according to some visions, but not according to the democratic vision.
All the same, I've learned this week that I'll never be a judge. Too bad for you: I'm a pretty lenient one. You'll be sad to be judged by those who never had a fault themselves, if such people can in fact be found. As Chesterton warned: "Oh drunkards in my cellar, boys in my apple tree: the world grows stiff and strange and new, and wise men shall rule over you; and you shall weep for me."
Apparently this sort of thing is disqualifying. The latest story I've heard is that someone is alleging that K's frat may have hired a stripper to perform a "public sex act" at the frathouse, albeit after he had graduated and gone on to law school. I'd heretofore understood the Democratic Party's position on 'sex workers' to be that they should be treated with respect, which surely should mean that giving them some employment shouldn't be beyond the pale. I certainly don't wish to suggest that people who engage in such work are necessarily immoral or wicked, nor those who employ them; all the same, I've never been interested. However, I did once attend a birthday party where a stripper performed. I was 15 or 16, and so embarrassed that I fled immediately. But the folks who employed her were Volunteer firefighters, friends of my father's and pillars of the community insofar as they'd report anywhere in the middle of the night to deal with fire or accident. They just liked to see a pretty girl once in a while. They had no intention of assaulting her, and she was performing there of her own free will.
Catholic theologians can explain just why this is nevertheless sinful, although at the moment the Church might better avail itself of expunging the beam in its own eye than in explication in the mote in others'. In fact one might argue that the Church might have better employed strippers occasionally, as by all accounts it used to do, than to have handed itself over to those who didn't care to see a pretty girl once in a while. Lusting after the pretty girl who voluntarily performs for you can be handled in Confession; the assault on the children is unlikely to be as readily satisfied, even according to the most careful theology of the Church.
The Democratic Party is not covering itself in democracy here. Opposing sex and beer and rowdy fire may be moral according to some visions, but not according to the democratic vision.
All the same, I've learned this week that I'll never be a judge. Too bad for you: I'm a pretty lenient one. You'll be sad to be judged by those who never had a fault themselves, if such people can in fact be found. As Chesterton warned: "Oh drunkards in my cellar, boys in my apple tree: the world grows stiff and strange and new, and wise men shall rule over you; and you shall weep for me."
My.... "Kampf"
Apparently grievance scholarship is subject to some... many... weaknesses.
But that's not all. Oh, no. This crew has been up to quite a bit of mischief, which you can read about at the link.
Affilia, a peer-reviewed journal of women and social work, formally accepted the trio’s hoax paper, “Our Struggle Is My Struggle: Solidarity Feminism as an Intersectional Reply to Neoliberal and Choice Feminism.” The second portion of the paper is a rewrite of a chapter from “Mein Kampf.” Affilia’s editors declined to comment.Now, in fairness, no one reads "Mein Kampf." You wouldn't be expected to recognize a rewrite the way you would a rewrite of the Declaration of Independence or something similar. On the other hand, unless Hitler was a writer of greater intellectual quality than I've been led to believe, you'd think a mere rewrite of his work would draw something less than academic approval.
But that's not all. Oh, no. This crew has been up to quite a bit of mischief, which you can read about at the link.
Battlefield Rations: The Food Given to the British Soldier for Marching and Fighting 1900-2011
Just read Mark Barnes's review of the book Battlefield Rations: The Food Given to the British Soldier for Marching and Fighting 1900-2011 by Anthony Clayton. It looks like an interesting read, and I enjoyed the review.
Many years ago I had the opportunity to try out some of the British Army's field cuisine. I remember the packet held two meals and included a one-mug sized stove for heating your tea. That's really about all I remember of it, now.
Many years ago I had the opportunity to try out some of the British Army's field cuisine. I remember the packet held two meals and included a one-mug sized stove for heating your tea. That's really about all I remember of it, now.
A Wrinkle in the Memory Discussion
As readers know, I've been entertaining the hypothesis of false memory since the revelation that Dr. Ford's memories first were attested long after the alleged fact in a psychotherapy session. While not proven, the hypothesis' probability of being true was considerably strengthened in my view when literally all of the people she remembered as present denied that the event had ever happened -- including a life long female friend. The basic form of the memory, a life-altering trauma occurring early in life but first attested years later in therapy, fits a well-known phenomenon.
Now the Federalist has uncovered a study that Dr. Ford participated in, indeed co-authored, on the use of hypnosis to 'retrieve' memories as well as to "create artificial situations that would permit the client to express ego-dystonic emotions in a safe manner." While Dr. Ford is a statistician, and thus was professionally most likely involved in the quantitative work, we know now that she was familiar with these techniques. It would be fair to ask whether or not she has used them in this matter.
UPDATE: The Federalist is now also publishing a piece based allegedly on a sworn statement from an old boyfriend that claims Ford perjured herself in her testimony about lie detector tests. I'm not sure if this means that the Federalist is running hit pieces on her, which would demean the quality of the previous citation; or if it means that Ford is going to prove to be generally unreliable.
Now the Federalist has uncovered a study that Dr. Ford participated in, indeed co-authored, on the use of hypnosis to 'retrieve' memories as well as to "create artificial situations that would permit the client to express ego-dystonic emotions in a safe manner." While Dr. Ford is a statistician, and thus was professionally most likely involved in the quantitative work, we know now that she was familiar with these techniques. It would be fair to ask whether or not she has used them in this matter.
UPDATE: The Federalist is now also publishing a piece based allegedly on a sworn statement from an old boyfriend that claims Ford perjured herself in her testimony about lie detector tests. I'm not sure if this means that the Federalist is running hit pieces on her, which would demean the quality of the previous citation; or if it means that Ford is going to prove to be generally unreliable.
Another Embracer
The first President to brew beer on the White House grounds was... Barack Obama. It's just what you do, explains a former White House aide for nutrition, if you're 'a regular guy and you're a good guy.'
I read that President Obama’s administration was the first that had brewing in the White House. Could you tell me a little bit about that?I don't disagree. It's a pretty normal thing for regular, good guys to like.
That’s my understanding. You know, obviously, there could be some beer that we don’t know about, but the person who ran the archives for the White House did research and looked through all the records and sort of found no evidence of any beer being brewed, or liquor distilled, on the grounds of the White House.
Washington was distilling various spirits in Mount Vernon and Thomas Jefferson was making wine in Monticello, but at the White House proper, we don’t know of any evidence that there was a president who brewed beer....
Beer had a prominent role in this White House administration. There was the beer summit, and Obama was often photographed drinking beer in his travels. Can you help us understand that?
I think there’s something powerful about beer. It’s food more broadly, but I think beer really captures the spirit of coming together, of sitting down, of sharing human moments, friendship moments, bonding moments. I mean, we all do it all the time. What’s better than sitting down with some friends or even sitting down with somebody to work something out and saying, “OK. Let me buy a beer. Let’s talk this over”? And I think it holds a really sacred part of our culture.
Showing the country that we’re part of this ongoing narrative and dialogue that’s been going on for centuries––well, it’s quite powerful. It’s also just naturally what you do if you’re a regular guy and you’re a good guy, and that’s really what the president is.
Done, done, done, done, and done.
Apropos of our earlier discussion in the comments about taking concrete action rather than writhing in impotent disgust, here are five links to Republican Senate race campaigns where your donation might do the most good:
Missouri
North Dakota
Indiana
West Virginia
Montana
And in the meantime, everyone will be pleased to hear that the polls just flipped on Sen. Claire McCaskill in her Missouri race, on the heels of her announced intention to vote against Judge Kavanaugh.
Burn it down. Plough it under. Salt the ground it stood on.
Missouri
North Dakota
Indiana
West Virginia
Montana
And in the meantime, everyone will be pleased to hear that the polls just flipped on Sen. Claire McCaskill in her Missouri race, on the heels of her announced intention to vote against Judge Kavanaugh.
Burn it down. Plough it under. Salt the ground it stood on.
Mountain Heritage Day
Today was the 44th Mountain Heritage Day at Western Carolina University. There were wagon trains led by Belgians or mules, tractors, three music stages featuring traditional music, and a full scale arts and crafts festival. Some of the latter included custom iron and knives, but also beading and woodworking. If you're ever in that part of the world for a future one, consider stopping by.
One of the events was shape note singing.
Bluegrass was a favorite.
Clogging, which was performed as well as other forms of traditional mountain dancing.
It was a welcome escape. Crazy is on the internet; ride out into America, and it's still sane and nice.
Something else that might work.
Or maybe not. Ian Millhiser is just spitballing here:
Tell me again why we shouldn't confront Republicans where they eat, where they sleep, and where they work until they stop being complicit in the destruction of our democracy.I'll bet all of you can come up with the answer that eludes him.
That might work
From Powerline's "The Week in Pictures": "Trump should nominate Hillary Clinton to the Supreme Court, so he can finally get an investigation of her started."
I Embrace Beer
This is actually not the Clancy Brothers, in spite of the video, but the Dubliners. But let all that go; drink up, mates. May the wicked like us find forgiveness, and the wicked like them find justice. Or even better: God forgive us all, though none of us deserves it.
UPDATE:
An Aussie tune.
UPDATE:
I particularly like this song because every single claim it makes is wrong. Beer long predates tea; it's not made of hops, which are a late addition for flavor; and the rest of it too is nonsense.
But it's fun.
Let's Be Sure To Baby Those Women
"How to talk to the women in your life right now."
My guess is that teaching people that they're rightly treated as frail, or fragile, makes them worse people. Teach them they need to deal with the stuff life throws at them, and that they shouldn't expect it to be fair. That's how you build resilient people. People who don't show up late for work just because they're angry about something else.
Professionals. Killers. The kind of people who make the world heel to them, rather than running late to appointments. Five minutes early is on time; on time is late; late is unacceptable because it's disrespectful.
Let me tell you: it's a lot. And it makes functioning on a baseline level difficult. You may have noticed that the women in your life have been particularly unhappy over the past two weeks as this news cycle reared its ugly head: we have been showing up late to work, giving you surly looks, loudly complaining about "men", et cetera. These are coping mechanisms. And perhaps you, a thoughtful and potentially kind-hearted person, want to know how to better support your non-male friends and colleagues. This is a very good instinct! We appreciate it. Here is some advice on how to do that...Showing up late for work is of course perfectly excusable if you're... upset? Right. Because you're not a real professional. You're a woman. We should be glad you deigned to come in to work at all, given how difficult all this is for you.
My guess is that teaching people that they're rightly treated as frail, or fragile, makes them worse people. Teach them they need to deal with the stuff life throws at them, and that they shouldn't expect it to be fair. That's how you build resilient people. People who don't show up late for work just because they're angry about something else.
Professionals. Killers. The kind of people who make the world heel to them, rather than running late to appointments. Five minutes early is on time; on time is late; late is unacceptable because it's disrespectful.
A new civil rights crisis
I can't be sure, but I think this author is serious:
The profile of an early voter tends to be more partisan, older and well educated. Early voters are also motivated and organized, which stands to reason since there are many steps involved, particularly with absentee voting; one must obtain the ballot in advance, fill it out correctly and mail it back on time.
These tend not to be the strongest traits of millennial voters. Fairfax County, Va., government recently surveyed the voting behavior of its summer interns, and discovered that a major obstacle to mailing in ballots was not knowing how to get a postage stamp. (For some millennials, mailing anything is a new experience.)
In addition, “college students are busy and the slightest hurdle can prevent them from mailing back a ballot,” said Lisa Connors, a public affairs officer with Fairfax County. She added, “Having a book of stamps or mailing anything is an old-fashioned concept.”
In many states, ballots now include return postage, so the completed ballot is automatically sent to election officials, who will reimburse the Postal Service for the expense. But this assumes millennials know about mailboxes.
A Start, Perhaps
The Pope defrocks a priest at the center of scandals.
Pope Francis has defrocked a Chilean priest who was a central character in the global sex abuse scandal rocking his papacy, invoking his “supreme” authority to stiffen an earlier sentence because of the “exceptional amount of damage” the priest’s crimes had caused.
In a statement Friday, the Vatican said Francis had laicized 88-year-old Rev. Fernando Karadima, who was originally sanctioned in 2011 to live a lifetime of “penance and prayer” for having sexually abused minors in the upscale Santiago parish he ran.
The Vatican said Francis was doing so for “the good of the church.”
“It is without doubt an exceptional measure, but Karadima’s grave crimes have caused exceptional damage in Chile,” Vatican spokesman Greg Burke said.
The “penance and prayer” sanction has been the Vatican’s punishment of choice for elderly priests convicted of raping and molesting children. It has long been criticized by victims as too soft and essentially an all-expenses-paid retirement, and Karadima’s whistleblowers had pressed for it to be toughened.
This Is Perfectly Healthy
"They complain that even when they give them gender-neutral toys, the boys immediately rush for the trucks."
As you would expect, the radio interview is totally in favor of feminism, but can't help but admit that the relationship has been poisoned. "Some feminists envision a world without men." "I was forced to conclude that feminism had failed mothers and sons." It ends up endorsing a kind of cross-dressing dance therapy, because of course life itself is so traumatic that therapy is necessary for everything and dance therapy is obviously the right way to bring up your son. (Also cross-dressing, clearly. You think I'm joking about the content of the interview, but I'm not at all joking. This is their idea for fixing things.)
The Most Unexpected Hero
Lindsey Graham, lion of the Senate.
I have to admit that this is not the one I would have expected to shine brightest today or any day. But here we are. Well done, Senator.
I have to admit that this is not the one I would have expected to shine brightest today or any day. But here we are. Well done, Senator.
"Violence"
Who is more likely to be victimized by teen dating violence? If you’re quick to think it’s girls, new data shows you’re wrong. In a surprising twist, recently published research indicates boys are more likely to report being victims of dating violence committed by partners who hit, slap or push them.I'm surprised it's that small a difference (and encouraged that the figures make it close to 95% of relationships that do without such violence). My sense is that girls are indeed taught that it's socially acceptable to slap boys, and women often continue to believe that it's appropriate to slap men for certain things even in adulthood. Perhaps they just don't usually choose to date the boys they have to slap.
Researchers with the University of British Columbia (UBC) and Simon Fraser University (SFU) conducted a longitudinal study of dating violence. While reports of physical abuse went down over time, they say there is a troubling gender-related trend.
Five percent of teens reported physical abuse from their dating partners in 2013, down from 6 percent in 2003. But in the last year, 5.8 percent of boys reported dating violence compared to 4.2 percent of girls.
“It could be that it’s still socially acceptable for girls to hit or slap boys in dating relationships,” says lead author Catherine Shaffer, a PhD student with SFU, in a release. “This has been found in studies of adolescents in other countries as well.”
In any case, most of this "violence" is pretty mild, and a lot of it is defensive (and therefore really appropriate, not just 'felt to be appropriate'). The inability to distinguish between legitimate violence and illegitimate violence is a problem with our current society. Much violence is socially beneficial, or we wouldn't maintain police forces nor prisons nor armies.
Midterms
Midterm elections are traditionally brutal for the party in power. What if this November, however, is as atypical as November 2016?
Trump is a singularly energetic campaigner. His efforts this year will likely move more Republicans and Republican-leaning independents to the polls. Seeing large arenas overflowing with animated Trump-supporters is probably a drag on Democrats. His simple message at these rallies is perfect: things are going well, but the Democrats will take it all away and stop any further progress, so we need more Republicans in Congress.Re widely publicized negative job-approval ratings for President Trump:
Factors such as the Bradley/Wilder Effect and the "job performance" vs. "handling" question might each count for 5% or more by themselves. If the above factors average just 1% each, the approval picture for Trump changes dramatically, and the GOP's election prospects change dramatically.
[Real Clear Politics's] polling average for the direction of the country is at a five-year high and has been steadily rising for the last year. The peak under Obama was in June of 2009, with 45.8% of those polled saying the country was moving in the right direction. Two years later, Obama bottomed at 17%. On election day 2016, it was 31%. Today it stands at 41%. Because of Trump's unprecedented commitment to keeping his campaign promises, for the first time in a generation, Republicans have a chance to vote with great enthusiasm. They should ignore the polls and do so.It is my fervent hope that the American electorate is disgusted with the dumpster-fire known as The Resistance and will show up at the polls to do something about it. And that goes double for the next primaries affecting any Senators who wobble on this nomination.
"Some" Irked by Superstar Haley?
Well, not me, pal. I like it when she does her thing. Trump is good at a certain kind of rhetoric, but it's not the only kind. Haley's much easier to take seriously (or even literally). She seems fearless and determined. We've rarely had such a good advocate.
Groupthink
From Jim Geraghty in the National Review, wondering how a general indictment of the toxic sex culture at Yale Law School plays out to its logical conclusion:
If, in an effort to get Kavanaugh, the left wants to retroactively declare that Yale University and its law school are and always were some sort of teeming cesspool of abuse and exploitation and elitist unaccountability . . . go ahead, fellas. Of course, a declaration like that spurs some questions about what the likes of Booker and Blumenthal saw and did when they were there. If this “institutional culture” of harassment and protecting the powerful was so deeply ingrained and so pervasive in the school for so long, how could those men somehow emerge with clear consciences? How could they themselves remain silent about it for so long?
There are a lot of Yale Law School graduates in the highest ranks of the progressive legal world — no doubt all of them should face the same suspicions. Were they complicit in continuing or even promoting and strengthening an exploitational culture?
If the aftermath of this whole angry mess is that Yale Law School has a permanent cloud over it, and everyone who went there is regarded with newfound suspicion . . . which side of the political divide do you think is going to pay the higher price?
When you try to indict a man by indicting the culture around him, you end up indicting a lot of other people in the process.Every time I'm in a jury pool, I see people struggling with the need to abide by difficult evidentiary rules designed to keep verdicts from depending on the kind of thinking that runs: "I don't know if there's any actual proof, but that's less important than the fact that this seems like the kind of thing a guy from his kind of neighborhood would do."
Providing Protection
At The Federalist, Melissa Danford writes about her fears for her husband and sons.
My husband is in the military, so I am no stranger to a culture of double standards, but until now we thought it was more isolated. In the military it is common knowledge, whether senior leaders will acknowledge it or not, that a mere accusation of sexual harassment or assault, proven or not, is enough to end a man’s career....She mentions the military's zero tolerance of accusations of sexual misconduct, but that is probably not the proximate precursor to what we are seeing right now. I would argue that the Title IX kangaroo courts the Obama administration set up at universities served as a model and training ground for this. They normalized extrajudicial handling of such accusations with none of the normal protections or standards of evidence.
All indications now are that too many in our society have abandoned the idea that all people, men and women, are innocent until proven guilty beyond reasonable doubt through due process. Instead people want a guilty until proven innocent standard for men accused of sexual assault. People think mere accusations, made without evidence and decades after the fact, should result in intrusive and embarrassing investigations simply because a woman made them.... Likewise, many seem to think that men and women should be judged by different standards. This is the opposite of equality before the law. Without equality before the law, how can we say the law rules and not men (or women)? As we make this turn toward “believe women” regardless of a trial or presence of proof, our society will only get worse.
Many also seem willing to abandon all statutes of limitation and questions of jurisdiction.
Double the Pleasure
A new study suggests that there are twice as many illegal aliens in America as previously believed.
AVI: Irony
If you had told me while I was in college in 1971 that a few decades later, a US Supreme Court justice was going to be questioned hard on whether there was too much sex and alcohol at his high school, I would have been petrified that the conservatives had somehow achieved total power, possibly by violence, and were imposing some sort of Puritan standards of a type later fictionalised in The Handmaid's Tale.These are strange days.
Well, This Will Be A Fun Week
Rosenstein resigns, leaving a Trump appointee in charge of the Mueller investigation. The matter that men are not supposed to discuss has gotten psychotic. Trump is at the UN, talking DPRK nukes and national sovereignty. Also, this week is the end of the fiscal year, so government bureaucrats who have unspent money have to do something with it or lose it.
Should be quite an interesting few days for those of us who have to deal with the government.
UPDATE: The Rosenstein report was apparently false; for now he remains in place.
Should be quite an interesting few days for those of us who have to deal with the government.
UPDATE: The Rosenstein report was apparently false; for now he remains in place.
P-hacking vs. the Kaballah
The replication crisis in psych research:
Let’s just put a bright line down right now. 2016 is year 1. Everything published before 2016 is provisional. Don’t take publication as meaning much of anything, and just cos a paper’s been cited approvingly, that’s not enough either. You have to read each paper on its own. Anything published in 2015 or earlier is part of the “too big to fail” era, it’s potentially a junk bond supported by toxic loans and you shouldn’t rely on it.
Cyberpunk 2020
More or less on schedule?
UPDATE: The splintering of cyberspace.
Researchers claim to have developed a simulator which can feed information directly into a person’s brain and teach them new skills in a shorter amount of time, comparing it to “life imitating art”.They cite "The Matrix" for this, but the idea was fully formed in William Gibson's early works.
UPDATE: The splintering of cyberspace.
Project Veritas "Deep State" Videos
These are not as explosive as they'd like them to be, but they certainly are telling. Now they've gotten their first scalp, at least temporarily. I'll be surprised if 'removed from duties' translates into 'fired,' given that it's a government employee.
Wrong House
This sort of thing happens from time to time. It's a good reason not to raid people's houses unless there's suspicion of something going on there that is worth the risk of loss of innocent life -- including police life.
Beer Hall in Seattle
Seems like a nice place.
Meanwhile, the open kitchen will be inspired by the idea of a Viking butcher shop and will feature bar bites and shared plates that explore wild flavors from the woods and sea. Imagine being at a gathering “near a roaring fire at the edge of a fjord,” said McQueen. There will be game, meat skewers, a large rotisserie for chicken, pork, and rabbit. “We’ll also have lamb and pork sausages, potato dumplings and pickled herring,” revealed McQueen[.]
Just Shut Up
All right, Senator. You got it. No more talk. We'll just get on with doing what we take to be right.
A Eulogy Fit for a Warrior - Ari Fuld, Rest in Peace.
Yesterday in Israel, Ari Fuld was killed by a knife wielding terrorist who had stabbed him in the back. Before he collapsed, he turned, drew his weapon, climbed over a fence to chase after the attacker and fired on him hitting him multiple times, wounding him.
The Eulogy given by his wife, Miriam, was fitting for a man who was truly a warrior- and clearly she, a fitting match for him.
There is more in that thread, and it's worth reading.
The Eulogy given by his wife, Miriam, was fitting for a man who was truly a warrior- and clearly she, a fitting match for him.
"When they sent you your discharge papers from the army at age 40, you tore them up. because the greatest [joy] you had was to serve in the Israeli Jewish army." - @arifuld's wife at his funeral tonight— Bethany S. Mandel (@bethanyshondark) September 16, 2018
"No-one knew [your life] would be cut so short this morning on your way to do shopping I asked you to do. You always ran towards danger, instead of away from it and you never backed down from a fight. Because you knew you were in the right. You fought for what you believed in."— Bethany S. Mandel (@bethanyshondark) September 16, 2018
There is more in that thread, and it's worth reading.
For Some Sad Men Among Us
Once even David Allan Coe knew what it was to be lonely. There's hope for you yet. You know who you are.
Haga of the First Water
I wish I could remember where I read the suggestion -- Dad29 only hints at it -- but sometime around Friday I read someone who suggested that the Kavanaugh accuser would turn out to have had first made the accusation in a therapy session, many years after the fact. The idea is that 'recovered' (but actually false) memories in psychology work are a known issue, and this was likely enough to turn out to be one.
Now it may be that the accusation is true, although both of the people she names as having been there deny that it or anything like it ever happened. But the psychotherapy-created-memory idea doesn't sound implausible to me given the facts. For one thing, it did in fact first come up in a therapy session in 2012, when she and her husband were having trouble and she needed a way to try to right that ship. But also:
(UPDATE: Paragraph removed due to inaccurate source. I regret the error.)
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that this was in fact the truth. Kavanaugh has passed six FBI background checks, none of which turned up anything like this; there's no pattern of behavior, as you'd expect if this accusation were true. But that doesn't mean she is lying, not in the strict sense. She is quite possibly telling the truth as she believes she understands it.
Defenders might say that a good reason for being unstable is having suffered a rape attempt in your young adulthood, and perhaps that's fair. In the end, both hypotheses are possible. We just have to decide which one is more plausible. Or maybe not even that; a 17 year old's bad behavior, even if proven at law rather than being alleged after the statute of limitations had passed seven times over, would normally be sealed in juvenile records just because we wouldn't want it to prevent them from reforming and living a responsible life as an adult. By all indications, he has led a responsible life as an adult. Maybe we don't have to decide what is true about the one allegation from 35 years ago to know the right way to proceed now.
All of that involves taking this accusation seriously. It leads us to the same place we would get to if we didn't take it seriously at all, as well we might not given the way the Democratic leadership sat on the thing for a month until they could raise it at the last minute to cause chaos. I'm open to the idea that we shouldn't given them an inch given how they've behaved; but a lot more is at stake than punishing Sen. Feinstein for her perfidy. I'm willing to take the matter seriously. All the same, I think that absent any new evidence or additional accusers, the course is clear.
Now it may be that the accusation is true, although both of the people she names as having been there deny that it or anything like it ever happened. But the psychotherapy-created-memory idea doesn't sound implausible to me given the facts. For one thing, it did in fact first come up in a therapy session in 2012, when she and her husband were having trouble and she needed a way to try to right that ship. But also:
She did tell someone about this years before Kavanaugh was nominated — but never mentioned his name. She doesn’t remember where or even when exactly the incident happened, but she does remember the names of two other people who were allegedly there. (Neither responded to WaPo’s request for comments.) She passed a polygraph test administered by a former FBI agent but her own therapist had notes saying four boys were involved, not two, which Ford blames on a misunderstanding.All of that is explicable if the hypothesis is correct. The fuzziness on exactly where and when this happened arises from the fact that it never did happen, as does the fuzziness on just who was responsible or how many people were present at the time. But also the polygraph: she could readily pass one, per hypothesis, because she isn't lying. She's telling the truth of what she thinks she remembers.
(UPDATE: Paragraph removed due to inaccurate source. I regret the error.)
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that this was in fact the truth. Kavanaugh has passed six FBI background checks, none of which turned up anything like this; there's no pattern of behavior, as you'd expect if this accusation were true. But that doesn't mean she is lying, not in the strict sense. She is quite possibly telling the truth as she believes she understands it.
Defenders might say that a good reason for being unstable is having suffered a rape attempt in your young adulthood, and perhaps that's fair. In the end, both hypotheses are possible. We just have to decide which one is more plausible. Or maybe not even that; a 17 year old's bad behavior, even if proven at law rather than being alleged after the statute of limitations had passed seven times over, would normally be sealed in juvenile records just because we wouldn't want it to prevent them from reforming and living a responsible life as an adult. By all indications, he has led a responsible life as an adult. Maybe we don't have to decide what is true about the one allegation from 35 years ago to know the right way to proceed now.
All of that involves taking this accusation seriously. It leads us to the same place we would get to if we didn't take it seriously at all, as well we might not given the way the Democratic leadership sat on the thing for a month until they could raise it at the last minute to cause chaos. I'm open to the idea that we shouldn't given them an inch given how they've behaved; but a lot more is at stake than punishing Sen. Feinstein for her perfidy. I'm willing to take the matter seriously. All the same, I think that absent any new evidence or additional accusers, the course is clear.
BB: Interview with Ms. Chelsea Clinton
The Bee gently mocks her latest. “I’m a devout Christian, but suggesting that I need to believe Christian things that would go against my political platform is the very definition of the war on women.”
The week in pictures
PS, Our little non-hurricane mostly passed through during the night. We had 4.2 inches yesterday, bringing our September total to 15-1/2. Not a problem here at Chez Tex, of course, where we have learned that weather continues to happen.
Haga Widely Available This Week
Placing the bottom line up top here: 6/ Bottom line, per source: “Amb. Haley had no choice in the location of the residence or what curtains were picked out that summer.” https://t.co/8trxACUQrD
— Rebeccah Heinrichs (@RLHeinrichs) September 14, 2018
This Better Not Be Haga
A mysterious letter semi-surfaces, occasioning a cryptic comment from a Senator, who passed it to the FBI, who passed it to the White House....
Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-Texas) dismissed the controversy on Twitter.
“Let me get this straight: this is [a] statement about [a] secret letter regarding a secret matter and an unidentified person. Right."
The "Basic Instinct" Defense
As I remember the movie, Sharon Stone's character says she'd have to be an idiot to write a book about killing someone and then kill them in just that way. This perversely then serves as a defense against the charge.
Turns out real life works that way sometimes too.
Turns out real life works that way sometimes too.
Sanctuary
Pennsylvania is not the place I would have thought this would start, but there it is.
A bill introduced in the Pennsylvania House would prohibit enforcement of some federal gun control laws. Passage of this bill would take a big step toward making Pennsylvania a sanctuary state for gun owners.It's not like they're starting the pick-and-choose-the-laws-you'll-enforce "sanctuary" thing.
Rep. Daryl Metcalfe (R- Cranberry Township) introduced House Bill 357 (HB357) on Sept. 5, with 41 bipartisan cosponsors. Titled the “Right to Bear Arms Protection Act, the bill would declare any Federal law which attempts to register, restrict or ban a firearm, or to limit the size of a magazine of a firearm,
“unenforceable within the borders of this Commonwealth.” This restriction would apply to both federal and state agents....
The federal government relies heavily on state cooperation to implement and enforce almost all of its laws, regulations and acts – including gun control. By simply withdrawing this necessary cooperation, states and localities can nullify in effect many federal actions. As noted by the National Governor’s Association during the partial government shutdown of 2013, “states are partners with the federal government on most federal programs.”
Two-edged leaks
From RealClearInvestigations:
Another recent Times story that has raised eybrows is its Sept. 1 account of the FBI’s efforts to recruit Russian businessman Oleg Deripaska, an oligarch close to Putin, as an informant. Published just days after the release of documents showing that the DOJ’s Bruce Ohr was in close contact with Christopher Steele, who was employed by Deripaska’s London lawyer, the Times story reports that the FBI operation included Ohr and Steele. According to the Times, Deripaska was one among half a dozen Putin associates that the FBI attempted to recruit for the purpose of reporting on Moscow’s efforts to interfere in the 2016 election.
A congressional Republican source who spoke to RCI on the condition of anonymity is skeptical of the Times’ account. “The takeaway is that in trying to flip a Putin-allied oligarch, the FBI told Putin that they’re investigating his interference in the 2016 elections. That is not a good look. It looks like the story they’re trying to bury is that in the period leading up to the FBI’s using the dossier to get a warrant to spy on the Trump campaign, a senior DOJ official whose wife [Nellie Ohr] worked on the dossier is meeting with the author of the dossier, who works for a Putin ally.”
25%
AVI has some thoughts on this idea that a 25% share of a population is enough to move it. I'll just add this data point.
Do voters care about the Supreme Court?
Surprisingly enough, it seems they do:
“It’s really not a top-of-mind thing for people on the street,” said Barrett Kaiser, a Democratic strategist in Montana. “The guys sitting on the barstool right now are talking about the harvest and hunting season and could care less about inside baseball in Washington, D.C.”
A Democratic strategist in Indiana agreed. “I’m not sure people [were] watching hearings as intently,” said Robin Winston, former chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party. Both strategists said the final vote would likely play a role for voters, although probably not as a make-or-break issue.
Some of the polling in some of these states, however, suggests otherwise. A Trafalgar Group survey over the summer showed Manchin with a 29-point lead over Republican Patrick Morrisey -- as long as he voted for Kavanaugh. Conversely, the poll showed Manchin’s lead narrowing to only two percentage points if Manchin did not vote for Trump’s nominee.
A Wild 9/11 Anniversary
A section of headlines on Drudge from yesterday:
Be careful out there, ok?
UPDATE: Violent threats aimed at Sen. Collins and her staff.
Be careful out there, ok?
UPDATE: Violent threats aimed at Sen. Collins and her staff.
The Logan Act Is or Isn't A Thing?
After having used the Logan Act as a pretext for the whole Russia investigation, you'd think that our friends on the left would be more sensitive to actual violations of it.
National Emergencies at the Stately Speed of Bureaucracy
A new executive order:
Oh, no. No, the 90 days doesn't start until after the election.
The executive order, signed just two months ahead of the November's midterms elections, addresses not only interference with campaign and election infrastructure, but also propaganda efforts.So, you might ask, the election's in two months, but in three months we'll have an assessment of whether or not anyone is trying to interfere?
The order, which is considered a national emergency due to sanctions authority requirements, instructs the Office of National Intelligence and the intelligence community to conduct regular assessments about potential foreign interference in elections.
The process, according to Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and White House national security adviser John Bolton, would take a total of 90 days.
Oh, no. No, the 90 days doesn't start until after the election.
Following Election Day, the intelligence community would have 45 days to collect data and assess whether interference had occurred.Shouldn't we be doing this now, in the hope of preventing foreign interference in our elections?
At that point, the agencies would pass the findings to the Justice Department and Department of Homeland Security, where officials would have 45 days to make their assessment based on the intelligence information, and decide whether to pass sanctions on potential actors, countries, or institutions that participated in potential interference.
Not Looking Good By Comparison
It's a bad deal when the Catholic Church's sex scandals compare unfavorably to those of the Muslim Brotherhood's spiritual leader. Trying to get one's wife to wear a blindfold is downright tame. Swinging with the maid, well, isn't he entitled to another few wives anyway?
Meanwhile at the Vatican:
Meanwhile at the Vatican:
Satan is working to uncover the sins of bishops so that they will be visible and a cause of scandal, Pope Francis said during his homily at Mass on Tuesday.People might be scandalized by the uncovering of sins, but the real scandal is occasioned by the Church helping wicked priests to avoid accountability for the crimes.
“This is good to remember, in these times in which it seems that the Great Accuser has been unchained and is attacking bishops. True, we are all sinners, we bishops. He tries to uncover the sins, so they are visible, in order to scandalize the people. The Great Accuser, as he himself says to God in the first chapter of the Book of Job, 'roams the earth looking for someone to accuse'."
Rescorla
This story was re-posted because of yesterday's anniversary. If you want to revisit something inspiring, it's a good choice.
Lies and Chardonnay
Senator Kamala Harris, who like Senator Booker is using the recent Supreme Court confirmation hearings to grand-stand in pursuit of higher office, put out a deceptively edited video that she chose to describe as a "dog whistle." In fact, the claim she was deceptively trying to attribute to Judge Kavanaugh was merely used during his description of the plaintiff's claims; he was not endorsing their description, merely describing what they said was the issue. Politifact, not always a friend to the Republican party, reviewed Sen. Harris' claim and labeled it clearly false.
What do you do when you're caught in a lie? Apologize? Promise to do better?
Of course not. You call for supporting fire from someone with no ethical issues that would stop them from endorsing your lies.
I hope that the Democrats realize that President Trump's vulnerabilities are his refusal to show proper respect for others, and his penchant for being completely careless about the truth. Trump wins in spite of these qualities, not because of them. He wins because he is the only candidate on the field who is on the side of ordinary people, rather than a card-carrying member of an elite that despises ordinary people. That is why he gets as much of a pass as he does for the things that people hate about his manner. If Democrats could be on the side of the people, honestly and respectfully, they'd clean up.
Instead, Democrats seem to have decided that deception and disrespect are Trump's sources of strength. They have gone beyond carelessness about the truth, and seek to surpass him by direct and intentional lies.
What do you do when you're caught in a lie? Apologize? Promise to do better?
Of course not. You call for supporting fire from someone with no ethical issues that would stop them from endorsing your lies.
I hope that the Democrats realize that President Trump's vulnerabilities are his refusal to show proper respect for others, and his penchant for being completely careless about the truth. Trump wins in spite of these qualities, not because of them. He wins because he is the only candidate on the field who is on the side of ordinary people, rather than a card-carrying member of an elite that despises ordinary people. That is why he gets as much of a pass as he does for the things that people hate about his manner. If Democrats could be on the side of the people, honestly and respectfully, they'd clean up.
Instead, Democrats seem to have decided that deception and disrespect are Trump's sources of strength. They have gone beyond carelessness about the truth, and seek to surpass him by direct and intentional lies.
Madison and Mob Rule
A pretty good piece. You may not agree precisely with his description of the problem set, but his solutions include some ideas that we all believe in -- especially Federalism and constitutional education, i.e., civics.
Federalism, meanwhile, remains a core part of the solution. However, I've become convinced that we also need a way to create a distinction between urban and rural that has constitutional force. It seems that we have two modes of life here that are fundamentally incompatible, not only in their desires but in their needs. Ensuring that the cities can't impose their will on the countryside, and vice versa, might lower the temperature a lot.
To combat the power of factions, the Founders believed the people had to be educated about the structures of government in particular. “A popular Government, without popular information, or the means of acquiring it, is but a Prologue to a Farce or a Tragedy; or, perhaps both,” Madison wrote in 1822, supporting the Kentucky legislature’s “Plan of Education embracing every class of Citizens.” In urging Congress to create a national university in 1796, George Washington said: “A primary object of such a national institution should be the education of our youth in the science of government.”Well, at least 'overturning them via constant re-litigation.' Stability is helpful, but a bad decision needs to be addressed. Understanding the constitutional mechanisms allows us to do that in a way that is more likely to be accepted as legitimate.
The civics half of the educational equation is crucial. Recent studies have suggested that higher education can polarize citizens rather than ensuring the rule of reason: Highly educated liberals become more liberal, and highly educated conservatives more conservative. At the same time, the National Assessment of Educational Progress has found that citizens, whether liberal or conservative, who are educated about constitutional checks on direct democracy, such as an independent judiciary, are more likely to express trust in the courts and less likely to call for judicial impeachment or for overturning unpopular Supreme Court decisions.
Federalism, meanwhile, remains a core part of the solution. However, I've become convinced that we also need a way to create a distinction between urban and rural that has constitutional force. It seems that we have two modes of life here that are fundamentally incompatible, not only in their desires but in their needs. Ensuring that the cities can't impose their will on the countryside, and vice versa, might lower the temperature a lot.
The Mustache Isn't Playing
National Security Adviser John Bolton threatens to arrest any International Criminal Court judges who try American soldiers for actions in Afghanistan. As a power move, that's the kind of thing that the kids today call "alpha" or "baller." It's certainly the sort of thing that a dominant power would do. And it is true, as Bolton says, that the ICC isn't accountable to Americans or really to anyone: it's the kind of unelected international elites that the Trump administration was elected to oppose. Americans have a right to be tried by a jury of their peers, not by strangers and foreigners but by their fellow citizens.
That said, I have not been impressed lately by our system's success at holding its members to account. If we're going to be credible here, we need to do a good job of ensuring that we uphold our own rules and laws. The military justice system as I've observed it probably does this better than the rest of our so-called justice systems, to be fair.
That said, I have not been impressed lately by our system's success at holding its members to account. If we're going to be credible here, we need to do a good job of ensuring that we uphold our own rules and laws. The military justice system as I've observed it probably does this better than the rest of our so-called justice systems, to be fair.
Enid & Geraint
Per custom, today's only post will be a republishing of the 9/11 poem.
Enid & Geraint
Once strong, from solid
Camelot he came
Glory with him, Geraint,
Whose sword tamed the wild.
Fabled the fortune he won,
Fame, and a wife.
The beasts he battled
With horn and lance;
Stood farms where fens lay.
When bandits returned
To old beast-holds
Geraint gave them the same.
And then long peace,
Purchased by the manful blade.
Light delights filled it,
Tournaments softened, tempered
By ladies; in peace lingers
the dream of safety.
They dreamed together. Darkness
Gathered on the old wood,
Wild things troubled the edges,
Then crept closer.
The whispers of weakness
Are echoed with evil.
At last even Enid
Whose eyes are as dusk
Looked on her Lord
And weighed him wanting.
Her gaze gored him:
He dressed in red-rust mail.
And put her on palfrey
To ride before or beside
And they went to the wilds,
Which were no longer
So far. Ill-used,
His sword hung beside.
By the long wood, where
Once he laid pastures,
The knight halted, horsed,
Gazing on the grim trees.
He opened his helm
Beholding a bandit realm.
Enid cried at the charge
Of a criminal clad in mail!
The Lord turned his horse,
Set his untended shield:
There lacked time, there
Lacked thought for more.
Villanous lance licked the
Ancient shield. It split,
Broke, that badge of the knight!
The spearhead searched
Old, rust-red mail.
Geraint awoke.
Master and black mount
Rediscovered their rich love,
And armor, though old
Though red with thick rust,
Broke the felon blade.
The spear to-brast, shattered.
And now Enid sees
In Geraint's cold eyes
What shivers her to the spine.
And now his hand
Draws the ill-used sword:
Ill-used, but well-forged.
And the shock from the spear-break
Rang from bandit-towers
Rattled the wood, and the world!
Men dwelt there in wonder.
Who had heard that tone?
They did not remember that sound.
His best spear broken
On old, rusted mail,
The felon sought his forest.
Enid's dusk eyes sense
The strength of old steel:
Geraint grips his reins.
And he winds his old horn,
And he spurs his proud horse,
And the wood to his wrath trembles.
And every bird
From the wild forest flies,
But the Ravens.
Enid & Geraint
Once strong, from solid
Camelot he came
Glory with him, Geraint,
Whose sword tamed the wild.
Fabled the fortune he won,
Fame, and a wife.
The beasts he battled
With horn and lance;
Stood farms where fens lay.
When bandits returned
To old beast-holds
Geraint gave them the same.
And then long peace,
Purchased by the manful blade.
Light delights filled it,
Tournaments softened, tempered
By ladies; in peace lingers
the dream of safety.
They dreamed together. Darkness
Gathered on the old wood,
Wild things troubled the edges,
Then crept closer.
The whispers of weakness
Are echoed with evil.
At last even Enid
Whose eyes are as dusk
Looked on her Lord
And weighed him wanting.
Her gaze gored him:
He dressed in red-rust mail.
And put her on palfrey
To ride before or beside
And they went to the wilds,
Which were no longer
So far. Ill-used,
His sword hung beside.
By the long wood, where
Once he laid pastures,
The knight halted, horsed,
Gazing on the grim trees.
He opened his helm
Beholding a bandit realm.
Enid cried at the charge
Of a criminal clad in mail!
The Lord turned his horse,
Set his untended shield:
There lacked time, there
Lacked thought for more.
Villanous lance licked the
Ancient shield. It split,
Broke, that badge of the knight!
The spearhead searched
Old, rust-red mail.
Geraint awoke.
Master and black mount
Rediscovered their rich love,
And armor, though old
Though red with thick rust,
Broke the felon blade.
The spear to-brast, shattered.
And now Enid sees
In Geraint's cold eyes
What shivers her to the spine.
And now his hand
Draws the ill-used sword:
Ill-used, but well-forged.
And the shock from the spear-break
Rang from bandit-towers
Rattled the wood, and the world!
Men dwelt there in wonder.
Who had heard that tone?
They did not remember that sound.
His best spear broken
On old, rusted mail,
The felon sought his forest.
Enid's dusk eyes sense
The strength of old steel:
Geraint grips his reins.
And he winds his old horn,
And he spurs his proud horse,
And the wood to his wrath trembles.
And every bird
From the wild forest flies,
But the Ravens.
Substantial Police Brutality Against Innocent Veteran Alleged
The way the man tells the story, he was set upon by two thieves and went out of his way not to shoot to kill. Prosecutors charged him with attempted murder anyway, and held him for three years awaiting trial -- much of it in solitary. When a jury finally got the case, they backed him completely. Now, he's suing over the way he was mistreated.
Johnson's lawsuit also makes a startling claim -- that when he complained about all that time in solitary, guards beat him.These kinds of cases undermine trust and faith in government.
"They immediately cuffed me," said Johnson. "As soon as I was cuffed that's when they began to, you know, they beat me up."...
His lawsuit says Johnson tried to warn jail officials about one guard who would "sadistically and maliciously abuse" prisoners: "I'm the one who wrote a grievance on Lubrin saying that if you don't stop this guy, he's gonna kill someone."
His lawyer says, just one month after Johnson filed that grievance, Officer Jereh Lubrin and two other guards beat a mentally-ill inmate, Michael Tyree, to death. The officers were convicted of second degree murder.
Sniff tests
This is a happy development: it looks as though people really are trying to do something about the replicability crisis in psychological studies. One tool that's proving useful is a "trading market," in which a lot of independent analysts make online bets about which studies will replicate, using subjective tools they might have hesitated to use in public or formal settings.
What clues were the traders looking for? Some said that they considered a study’s sample size: Small studies will more likely produce false positives than bigger ones. Some looked at a common statistical metric called the P value. If a result has a P value that’s less than 0.05, it’s said to be statistically significant, or positive. And if a study contains lots of P values that just skate under this threshold, it’s a possible sign that the authors committed “p-hacking”—that is, they futzed with their experiment or their data until they got “positive” but potentially misleading results. Signs like this can be ambiguous, and “scientists are usually reluctant to lob around claims of p-hacking when they see them,” says Sanjay Srivastava from the University of Oregon. “But if you are just quietly placing bets, those are things you’d look at.
Beyond statistical issues, it strikes me that several of the studies that didn’t replicate have another quality in common: newsworthiness. They reported cute, attention-grabbing, whoa-if-true results that conform to the biases of at least some parts of society.
Commandments for the Current Age
Coveting again, but in an unexpected way. Although I think there is an older prohibition here against showing continuing affection for one's spouse after a certain point in time, lest it aggrieve the jealousy of those who have lost the spark.
A Story in Two Tweets
Apparently Obama gave a speech. In it he apparently said something about people finding it difficult to say that Nazis are bad. This occasioned some comment.
One:
Two:
Signs point to 'no.'
One:
Two:
Signs point to 'no.'
Volk & Family
The loss among Swedes of a sense of home, of living in a place where you have to be taken in even when you don’t deserve it, haunts Swedish politics today—and, more broadly, all European politics. It is one of the great drivers of xenophobia because it stresses questions that never arose in the old days: Who deserves a place in the family and why? At root, the mourning for folkhemmet recognizes the loss of any sense of mutual obligation. It’s not easy to imagine the policies or the politicians who could restore such a sense today. In the meantime, many Swedes are choosing to heed their own lost leftist ideals by voting for the far-right at the ballot box. Unlike most of the Swedish establishment, the populists at least acknowledge that those ideals have been breached.The "old days" the article refers to are a brief post-war period of consensus. Otherwise, I'm not sure you can say very many human civilizations have ever enjoyed the luxury of the question never arising: what do people have to do to "deserve" what they take from the fruits of others' labor?
Rebellion in the Senate
Sen. Booker, a man well-known for his melodrama, has decided to openly defy the rules in order to put out what he plainly views as explosive emails from the SCOTUS nominee. Having read them, though, I'd think these emails would be reassuring to Democrats about the quality of the man they are considering for the post.
For example, here he is defending the independence of the law-enforcement arms of the Executive from the politics of the elected President. As I understand it, that is exactly the position of Democrats vis a vis Donald Trump and the FBI or DOJ. The nominee was on their side way back in the Bush administration.
And here is the nominee asserting that he is on the side of a "race neutral" airport security policy in the wake of 9/11, when profiling (more on religion than race) was being put forward by many as an obvious security procedure. Again, for Democrats, this should put him on the side of the angels.
Booker says he's prepared to be expelled from the Senate in order to get these documents in front of the American people. Well, OK, thanks I guess. What does he see in these documents that is so alarming?
UPDATE: Booker was just grandstanding, it looks like -- the documents were cleared for release last night, at the request of his staff.
For example, here he is defending the independence of the law-enforcement arms of the Executive from the politics of the elected President. As I understand it, that is exactly the position of Democrats vis a vis Donald Trump and the FBI or DOJ. The nominee was on their side way back in the Bush administration.
And here is the nominee asserting that he is on the side of a "race neutral" airport security policy in the wake of 9/11, when profiling (more on religion than race) was being put forward by many as an obvious security procedure. Again, for Democrats, this should put him on the side of the angels.
Booker says he's prepared to be expelled from the Senate in order to get these documents in front of the American people. Well, OK, thanks I guess. What does he see in these documents that is so alarming?
UPDATE: Booker was just grandstanding, it looks like -- the documents were cleared for release last night, at the request of his staff.
A Confession
The dilemma — which he does not fully grasp — is that many of the senior officials in his own administration are working diligently from within to frustrate parts of his agenda and his worst inclinations.You can read his (or her) defense of this approach to electoral government at the link.
I would know. I am one of them....
This isn’t the work of the so-called deep state. It’s the work of the steady state.
That's Not Going to Cut It, Francis
The Pope says that our response to the current scandals in the Church should be "silence and prayer."
What's Fonzie Like?
UPDATE: Original text deleted. This looks to be a death hoax, which is a strange form of internet behavior I’ll never understand. The article claims he had no children, but he has 3 according to Wikipedia. People should cut this sort of thing out.
I Guess There's Some Football Going On
...and thank God for normal America.
I guess we aren't quite done yet.
I guess we aren't quite done yet.
Kyl Back to Senate
McCain's term will be finished by his old colleague John Kyl, another 'grand bargain on immigration' guy. Even in 2007, when that article was written, his voters were incensed about the issue. I don't get the sense that the Republican electorate has grown more accepting in the ensuing decade.
Conversational Old Norse
Phrases you can use with friends and family, from our favorite cowboy scholar.
Senescence Affects Ideas
The WSJ has an article today describing our left's ideas as 'exhausted.'
Both items h/t Wretchard.
This liberalism evolved within a society shamed by its past. But that shame has weakened now. Our new conservative president rolls his eyes when he is called a racist, and we all—liberal and conservative alike—know that he isn’t one. The jig is up. Bigotry exists, but it is far down on the list of problems that minorities now face. I grew up black in segregated America, where it was hard to find an open door. It’s harder now for young blacks to find a closed one....Spengler writes that last week's funeral for John McCain was really a funeral held by members of his elite class for the world they thought they lived in. That world, above all, they mourn.
Today’s liberalism is an anachronism. It has no understanding, really, of what poverty is and how it has to be overcome. It has no grip whatever on what American exceptionalism is and what it means at home and especially abroad. Instead it remains defined by an America of 1965—an America newly opening itself to its sins, an America of genuine goodwill, yet lacking in self-knowledge.
Both items h/t Wretchard.
Responses to Tyranny from America's Geniuses of Vienna
Three of the great minds of the last century, Joseph Schumpeter, Karl Popper, and Friedrich Hayek, all wrote pieces on how to respond to tyranny if it ever came to the West. The Economist has a helpful survey of their ideas.
Hayek and Popper were friends but not close to Schumpeter. The men did not co-operate. Nonetheless a division of labour emerged. Popper sought to blow up the intellectual foundations of totalitarianism and explain how to think freely. Hayek set out to demonstrate that, to be safe, economic and political power must be diffuse. Schumpeter provided a new metaphor for describing the energy of a market economy: creative destruction.These are ideas that are well worth considering at length.
Politics as Usual
The funeral of Senator John McCain was a festival of anti-Trump rhetoric, in spite of the fact that some Trump family members were in attendance. Well, that's doubtless just what McCain would have wanted. However, there is a footnote to this story that is worth knowing.
NPR: School Shootings Overestimated by at least 2/3rds
An unexpected but appreciated attempt at real journalism.
This spring the U.S. Education Department reported that in the 2015-2016 school year, "nearly 240 schools ... reported at least 1 incident involving a school-related shooting." The number is far higher than most other estimates.It's as if the government bureaucracies can't be trusted to tell citizens the truth.
But NPR reached out to every one of those schools repeatedly over the course of three months and found that more than two-thirds of these reported incidents never happened.... We were able to confirm just 11 reported incidents[.]
I Have Returned
The trip to the Swamp was eventful, but I am still thankful to return to the mountain. Yesterday I crossed three great rivers as well as three states, the long Shenandoah valley, and several high mountain passes to get here. It is good to be back.
BB: Feelings Acceptable as Answers on Math Tests
“Any emotion, feeling, statement, or catchphrase is an acceptable answer to most of the problems in the new mathematics standards,” a Common Core representative told reporters. “As long as students are being sincere, genuine, authentic, and true to themselves at the time they are answering the question, that’s all we can ask as educators.”
The Righteous Punishment of the Sun
I am enduring it, having left my mountain fastness for another trip to the Swamp. I’ll be back when I return to places where it is cool enough to think. That will probably be this weekend.
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