GeorgeWBush.com :: The Official Re-election Site for President George W. Bush

Intel:

The Bush-Cheney team has put out a new ad called Intel. It shows that they are finally recognizing that this is an area in which Kerry is terribly vunerable.

One can understand why the Bush administration would be cautious in citing intelligence issues as a reason to vote for them. "Intelligence failure" has been an all-too-common phrase in the last few years, and while the Bush administration is not to blame for the worst failings of the intelligence services, they have exacerbated the problem in certain key respects. The Bush administration can't be blamed for the fact that the CIA got nearly all our Iraqi agents killed in a coup attempt in the late 1990s; they can't be blamed for the fact that the CIA/DIA didn't keep up ties in Afghanistan after the fall of the Soviet Union. We saw in the released President's Daily Briefing the fruits of that -- the information was based on old UBL speeches, 'media reports,' and the like. This was what the CIA could come up with: open source intelligence that you or I could dig up in Nexis.

The fact is that the services had blinders on by 2001, and rebuilding HUMINT networks in particular takes a lot of time. It takes time on both ends: in the sharp end, it's hard to recruit and keep secret your agents; and on our side, it really takes decades to build up the sort of deep and intimate understanding of a foreign culture and its personalities that drives the best HUMINT.

So, these are problems that couldn't be fixed overnight. They stemmed from bad decisions made many years earlier, but which echo with particular resonance in the intelligence community.

On the other hand, Bush didn't help matters much. To his credit, he started doing what Clinton had not, which was taking very regular meetings with the DCI. He took his briefings seriously, and -- as we know from Kessler's book, The CIA At War -- came into office with advice from Bush Sr. to keep the agency close.

In spite of that, the President seems to have fallen prey to serious intelligence failures. Some of these were pre-9/11, when the whole Federal apparatus fell down on the job. State approved visas in plain violation of its regulations; the CIA didn't deal with foreign warnings about some of the terrorists; the FBI didn't deal with CIA warnings. Bush could not be expected to fix these sorts of massive systemic problems in a few months, but the greater problem is that he doesn't seem to have noticed them. "Why don't we have anything on this bin Laden that isn't several years old and from the press?" should have been a natural question.

The Iraq war intelligence has been thoroughly explored, and there is no reason to go over it again here. As all investigations have discovered, the intel was widely believed worldwide, and there were good reasons for believing some of it. Still, there are honest questions about why we haven't seen more of a shakeup in the services. "We were waiting on the 9/11 Commission recommendations" doesn't cut it with me, especially since key recommendations are bad (e.g., the 'intel Czar').

So, for all these reasons, one can see why Bush might be careful about mentioning intelligence as a reason to vote for him. Even for those matters in which there was little he could do, the President bears some responsibility for answering to things that happen on his watch.

However, it is plainly true that Kerry is worse. Indeed, it's one of the only things we can really know about Kerry for certain.

I've been having this discussion with a young liberal I know from Del's Freespeech.com. Here are the relevant bits:

I mention Stansfield Turner in the clip. Will asked me to look into how 9/11 changed his views, if it did. I should have mentioned this earlier, but I have looked up Stansfield Turner's writings since 9/11. The University of Maryland has a selection, if you're inclined to see for yourself.

I'm afraid that I have to report little if any change from the retired Admiral. Now, Turner is a nice fellow -- he broke our intel services not out of malice, but because he felt that HUMINT is by its nature unethical, and he wanted a fully ethical CIA. So he focused on signals intelligence -- SIGINT -- and gutted the HUMINT-based clandestine service, as well as firing lots of our best officers.

His recent papers discuss HUMINT, but invariably include lots of what I would call "warnings" about it: 'it often fails,' 'it isn't moral,' and the like. He also plays up SIGINT in his current writings, saying it's underestimated as a source of intelligence.

One can't object to his tone, or even to his motives. It all sounds very nice, and I don't doubt that he really believes it. But, at the last, he's wrong -- and he's wrong in a very deadly way for the United States of America. I must report that my investigation has left me more certain than ever that he can't be trusted to run American intelligence, and that the Kerry campaign, depending on his advice, can't be trusted with it either.

Will asked me for more information about SIGINT and why it wasn't an answer:

SIGINT means "signals intelligence." It is the intelligence that can be gained, for example, from monitoring cell phone conversations, internet transmissions, and the like. It's not that I'm against it -- it has its place -- but it's not the solution Adm. Turner would like to believe.

There are some civil liberties concerns, to start with. You can imagine how much it would please the average European to discover that his phone calls are being monitored by CIA or NSA (as it is sometimes rumored that they are).

Also, the "signal to noise ratio" is a difficulty. Briefly, how do you know which phones to listen in on? Well, you don't, unless you've got a tip from the HUMINT field. If you're relying on SIGINT primarily, you end up listening to a whole lot of people's conversations about their shopping lists. At some point, you have to hire extra analysts to analyze all this "noise." It's expensive, and the chance of catching the one piece of "signal" is small no matter how much you spend on it.

Turner likes SIGINT because he thinks it's relatively moral. Nobody gets hurt if the government listens in on private conversations (right, Vikingas?). HUMINT, on the other hand, involves lies and spying. It involves, frequently, breaking the law. It's immoral and it means dirty tricks.

However, finally, it's the only thing that really works. As I suggested above, even SIGINT works a lot better if you've got tips from HUMINT to focus your SIGINT efforts. The same is true for all the other forms of intelligence too (e.g., OSINT -- "open source intelligence" -- is more effective if you know what to be watching for. It suffers from a similar 'signal/noise ratio' problem).

Finally, you've got to be willing to get down and dirty as a regular, day to day sort of thing. Intelligence doesn't work any other way. That's unhappy, I agree, but it is the truth. If you want to know what killers are doing, you have to win their trust and get them to tell you. You can't do that except with dirty tricks, and a lot of stuff we'd really rather not do.

But the alternative, the only alternative, is not knowing what they are doing....

I realize you probably made your mind up a while ago, and a man must vote his conscience. Still, for what it's worth, I couldn't vote for Kerry and his team. I honestly think it would put the republic in danger. I don't doubt their good intentions -- as I said, Stansfield Turner is a kindhearted fellow who only wants to be completely moral in our dealings with the world. It's hard to fault that.

At the last, though, I must fault it. I think we all must. I see no alternative, in spite of the failures and the failings, but to vote to re-elect Bush. I won't hold it against you however you vote -- a man must vote his conscience. But this is how I see it, for what it is worth.

Will finally asked if, aside from Turner's position as a senior advisor to the Kerry team, I thought there was reason to believe that the Carter approach would take hold in a Kerry administration:

There are reasons to think that the Carter team will be more important in a Kerry administration than they were in the Clinton administration. Clinton kept their members at arm's length, allowing Carter to serve as a member of a delegation to Haiti during his administration, but not otherwise putting him front and center. Neither Carter nor his fellows played any important role at the 1992 convention.

Kerry, on the other hand, gave Carter a prominent speaking role at the convention. Kerry, unlike Clinton, gave Stansfield Turner a seat on his senior policy staff. Turner's role during the Clinton administration was a professorship at U. Maryland, not a policy role.

There are two reasons this is important. The first is that there is a power struggle in the Democratic party, between the DNC (Democratic National Committee) faction which the Clintons represented, and the faction composed of those to the left of the DNC. In the two-party system, it's usually the centrist faction that enjoys greater success with the electorate. The preference for Carter's wing of the party over Clinton's is not to be ignored.

The other, and more important, reason is that the government is currently talking loudly about establishing an 'Intel Czar.' In the 1980s, the main reason we were able to respond to the Soviets in Afghanistan and elsewhere was that intel was bifurcated. The CIA was wrecked -- Mr. Turner had seen to that, as we've discussed. However, the DIA (Defense Intelligence Agency) duplicated a lot of the CIA's functions from the military side. They started the program in Afghanistan, which the CIA took over later.

The DIA and CIA would both fall under the new Intel Czar, if it is in fact created. (For the record, I oppose the notion. The 9/11 Commission is just wrong on this point. The bifurcation is beneficial, as it gives us two separate views on what goes on worldwide; too much centralization will cause an increase in "stovepiping," and therefore worse intel failures).

If that Czar is Stansfield Turner -- already on Kerry's senior staff -- or someone operating on Turner's theories, we'll see a breakage of American intel at all levels. There won't be a DIA to save us this time; the DIA will be broken too.

That's the gamble, and the odds are in favor of Kerry approving just such a breakage. I can't take that chance.

I don't recommend that gamble to anyone. The Bush ad mentions several reasons to be concerned about Kerry and intel, but there are more serious reasons too. We can't afford a Kerry administration. The risks are too great.

BLACKFIVE

Steyn on Cambodia:

Via "the Paratrooper of Love," BlackFive, we have a piece from Mark Steyn:

But this question isn't about geographical degrees of latitude so much as psychological ones. Here's the real reason Lt. Kerry wasn't spending Dec. 24, 1968, on a secret mission in Cambodia: On the previous day, Dec. 23, the U.S. government finally secured the release, after a five-month diplomatic stand-off, of 11 Americans whose U.S. Army utility landing craft had made a navigational error and strayed into Cambodian waters. Prince Sihanouk had rejected U.S. apologies and threatened to try the men under Cambodian law. It's unlikely, 24 hours after their release, anyone in Washington was thinking, ''Hey, we need to send that hotshot Kerry in there.''

So what are we to make of Sen. Kerry's self-seared 30-year-old false memory of Christmas in Cambodia with its vast accumulation of precise details? Of being shot at by the Khmer Rouge (unlikely in 1968) and of South Vietnamese troops drunkenly celebrating Christmas (as only devout Buddhists know how)?

It's not about dates and places. For Kerry, his Yuletide mission was an epiphany: the moment when he realized his government was lying to the people about what was going on. This is the turning point, the moment that set the young Kerry on the path from brave young war volunteer to fierce anti-war activist.

And it turns out it's total bunk....

Captain's Quarters

More on Cambodia & Vietnam:

Captain's Quarters has, as most of you will have seen, newly disproven another of Kerry's claims about his service in Vietnam. This is starting to become alarming. As I said in the comments to the last post on this topic, I'm willing to insist on a strict standard of evidence for all of these charges -- but that applies to Kerry, too. When he makes claims that can be proven false, he deserves what he gets.

People's Daily Online -- Typhoon Rananim sweeps Zhengjiang

Charley Shmarley:

Glad I'm not in HangZhou today. This is our old neighborhood, from when we lived in China. Looks like so far, 115 dead, about 2,000 injured, and 42,000 houses destroyed. Whee.

Mudville Gazette

"Big Boom"

The Mudville Gazette has an interview with a (strongly pro-Bush) Air Force F-16 pilot who has been supporting operations in Najaf. Greyhawk has a question:

The terrorists and other anti-coalition elements "really are not winning," our pilot correspondent says. "Not even a little."

Anyone need that translated?

Hurr. Kitty

Hurricane Kitty:

Sovay, whose site I've been reading faithfully lately, carries on the tradition of some lefty blogger whose name escapes me of "Friday Catblogging." It happens that one of her cats used to live with me, before I found a suck... er, a kind hearted Sovay to take her in.

As she reminds me today, this cat, Arganti, appeared to me in the wreck following Hurricane Floyd. The wife and I were down Savannah way at the time, living on the inauspiciously named "Waters Avenue" (little did we know that meant 11-inch flash floods in our living room during the storm season). I was out 'walking one morning for pleasure,' when I saw a little white kitten stalking through the storm damage. As soon as she saw me, her tail shot up into a point, and she started running in my direction. She followed me all the way home -- I never touched her or offered her food or even encouragement -- and right through the door into my house. I named her and sent her to Maryland to live with Sovay, who flew down to pick her up.

So yeah, she's been through fire and high water. Tough cat, that one.

BLACKFIVE: Military Absentee Vote Registration Deadline Approaches

Vote Now!

If you're in the military, that is. BlackFive reminds us that the deadline for military absentee voters to register is August 15! Don't forget.

If you need help, the Marines have put up a good site for the military voter abroad. Get the word out, register, and vote on time! We don't want any military ballots discarded this time.

The Chronicle: 8/13/2004: Revising the Grecian Formula

Pun-ishing history:

Groan.

The Command Post - Op-Ed - John F. Kerry - Fighter Pilot?

J.F. Kerry: Fighter Pilot:

I hadn't heard about it until today, but apparently Kerry claims to have flown with the Israeli Air Force into Egypt, in addition to his Cambodia claims. He made this claim in remarks to the Anti-Defamation League, this very year. The Command Post concludes that... well, they don't want to call it an outright lie, although his claims are surely stretchers at least.

Good gracious. By the way, if you drop over to read the post, be sure to scroll down to the comments section. There's some well informed discussion about the nature of swift boats.

Marine Corps Times - News - More News

MOUT:

The Marine Corps Times describes the MOUT (Military Operations in Urban Terrain) training that the 11th MEU is using in Najaf. It has certainly been impressive, even to old hands like Wretchard at the Belmont Club.

In today's mainstream press, everyone is repeating the commonly understood pieties. Al-Reuters has a piece citing a fellow from the Royal Institute of International Affairs who says, "The problem is the foe they are trying to defeat is in many ways indestructible." Since we cannot win, the only hope is to try not to make these people mad at us. By that standard, fighting in Najaf -- indeed, in Iraq, in the Middle East at all -- is madness. This seems to be the position of the whole Fouth Estate, as well as the non-military NGOs.

It is interesting to read the reflections of those who have some knowledge of military science. They begin from the point of view that regardless of strength, all enemies can be defeated, as can we ourselves. The question is sorting out how, so that you may pursue the course most likely to result in the enemy's defeat, and least likely to result in your own.

Wretchard's writings on the topic are interesting, not only because his is one of the finest minds operating in the blogosphere, but also in that he has apparently had a change of opinion since Fallujah. Both he and I were initially on the side of restraint where sacred ground was concerned. At the time of the Fallujah incursion, I had revised my opinion, but Wretchard remained on the other side. I see today that he has come to a new conclusion:

Yet something has changed for the Iraqi government to authorize a near-fatal assault on Sadr and countenance the Marines approach to within rock-throwing distance of the Imam Ali Shrine. Whether it has changed enough is the question.

It now seems clear that Sadr overestimated the degree of protection which the necropolis and its proximity to the shrine afforded him. Yet the shrine itself cannot be so lightly trespassed. It is protected by a boundary civilized men hesitate to cross. In an irony that Sam Harris would appreciate, sanctity, though it be of the Christian Church of the Nativity, has become an object that can always be pressed into service to shield Islamic fundamentalists though it provides none for those they would slay. That becomes the danger itself; for the shameless abuses of Sadr and similar thugs inevitably cheapen and corrode the very restraints upon which civilization depends; that distinguish the civilian from the combatant; the church from the battlefield. When like the Najaf necropolis, sacred objects finally lose their power to restrain, it more than brick that is destroyed. The real metaphor for the terrorist war on civilization is not wide-bodied aircraft crashing into the twin towers. It is mortars firing from the courtyard of the Imam Ali Shrine by men who don't even sandbag their positions, secure in the knowledge that they can slay men too decent to fire back.

In the end, Sadr's walk-away position is to dare Rubaie to assault the Shrine: dare him to be a barbarian. In the face of that challenge, Rubaie must convince Sadr that he is prepared to cross that line, to pull down his temple if it means saving his soul.

To this I have nothing to add, having said my piece before. I agree.

KRT Wire | 08/12/2004 | Filip Bondy | U.S. team serves as model for Greek-Americans

US Defeats America:

A weird story from the Olympics.

PixelPress

A Beautiful Site:

PixelPress is the host for some well-done photography of our servicemen at war. Thanks to JHD for the link.

Getty Images Editorial - Detail View - GINSWEB01

Congratulations:

Congratulations to the Iraqi "football" team. Best to the lads, and good hunting. I hope you take the silver (having, for patriotic reasons, to hope the gold goes elsewhere). :)

NRA News

Grim on NRANews:

If any of you wonder what Grim sounds like when you catch him completely off guard, and start asking him pointed questions while he's been thinking about something else entirely, you can drop by NRANews.com today. About twenty-five percent of the way through the program, I'm the fellow in the John B. Stetson hat being interviewed on the relative qualifications of Bush and Kerry.

I hope I sound a bit better when I've taken the time to prepare a response. For what it's worth, I thought they guy who stopped me was just asking for directions. I get asked for directions no matter where I go -- I guess I just look like I know where I'm going, so people assume I might know where they're going too. It always shocks me in D.C., though. Anyone paying half a moment's attention would notice that mine is the only cowboy hat in view. Why they'd think I'm a local baffles me.

Anyway, I was down on the Mall and this fellow asked if he could ask a question, and I said, "Yeah, sure." So he whipped a mic out from behind his back, and suddenly his accomplice turned up with a television camera, and they started asking about the election. I didn't find out they were with NRANews until after the brief interview (which they seem to have run without any editing). I don't think they store back-issues of the show online, so if you don't see it between now and tomorrow at 2 PM, you've probably missed it. No great loss if you do; I was hardly at my best, in a bit of a hurry, and preoccupied with certain questions relating to China and Korea that have been on my plate this week.

Range Day 2

Home on the Range:

I got out to the range today, in advance of the tropical storm rolling in. I went last week, but due to an unexpected traffic problem I missed the last ceasefire and couldn't shoot that day as a result. Today, however, everything went fine, and I got to the range at about two o'clock.

I had a pretty good day. After warming up, I put down a pretty good group:

That nice little group in the black is four rounds, not three as it may look at first. Here's a closeup:

That's a pretty good improvement over last time, and fair shooting for a .357 magnum.

I also tried a couple of new things today. In addition to a box of .357 Magnum, I bought a box of .38 Special to try. Everyone tells you that you can shoot it out of a .357, and you can, although it mucks up the throat with soot because the brass is short. Still, I can see why it's popular. It cuts the recoil in half at least, and is four bucks cheaper a box to boot. For target practice, that's probably fine, though I share the USMC motto: "Train as you fight, fight as you train."

Finally, for my fellow Knights of St. John Moses, I should mention that I fired a Colt 1911A1 that the shootist in the next stall had brought out. I wish I could show you that target. I was just on my way out, having recovered my targets and picked up my brass, when he invited me to have a go with the thing. As a consequence, I don't have the target to photograph for you. But man, what a sweet shooting piece.

Sweet, that is, when it worked. It was loaded with Winchester hardball, but for some reason it still didn't feed right twice in six rounds: the first time it choked clearing the spent brass, and the second time it fed the new round into the throat but didn't drop to battery. I can't say why, although my guess is she wasn't properly cleaned by her shooter. Still, when she shot, she shot true.

FreeSpeech.com

An Honest Debate:

It's getting harder to find one, as the election comes closer. But you still can, at Del's FreeSpeech.com. Today's is a debate over the Christmas in Cambodia charges, which I think is worth reading and thoughtful replies.

Results - News Release Generator

11th MEU:

US CENTCOM has released an official report on 11th MEU fighting in Najaf. Take a look.

Channelnewsasia.com

Asia's Six Days War:

Taiwan is staging a war game today to see if it could withstand a Chinese assault. They have just finished another, computerized simulation. Things do not look good:

The drill came as Defense Minister Lee Jye confirmed a report that in a recent computer-simulated exercise, Taiwanese troops were wiped out 130 hours after the People's Liberation Army (PLA) started invading.

The Apple Daily said the blitz was simulated as happening in 2006, the year when Taiwanese President Chen Shui-bian is scheduled to push for a new constitution, which Beijing has warned against.

After the first day of the Chinese "attacks", Taiwan's airports, bunkers, harbours and key government buildings were destroyed by extensive bombings featuring 700 ballistic missiles.

The simulated battles ended when the PLA captured the capital Taipei in the sixth day of the attacks.

China itself staged war games last month on Dongshan Island. The exercise...

which began last week, resembles what Chinese analysts say a military strike on Taiwan would look like: commando raids and elements of a so-called "decapitation strike" on Taipei, including night bombing runs - something the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has not practiced before in a coastal exercise....

State media are at volume levels not heard since 2000, the last time Chen, who desires a separate identity for Taiwan, was elected. Newspapers show Chinese frigates shooting rockets. They list Chinese weapons that "Americans are afraid of" - including the mobile-launched long range Dongfeng-31 and Dongfeng-4 rockets. Party newspaper People's Daily issued an angry broadside Tuesday on a July 15 resolution in Congress supporting the Taiwan Relations Act. The law allows US weapons sales to Taiwan for defensive purposes so long as the island is threatened. People's Daily argued that Congress "fabricated a Chinese military threat in order to justify arms sales to Taiwan - a blatant intervention into China's internal affairs."

In case you didn't catch that, the PRC state media is directing our attention to its thermonuclear forces. The 31 in particular is a mobile ICBM carrying a MRV warhead. Each one is capable of destroying as many as three US cities, and these are estimated to be only a small part of China's nuclear capability. Under a threat of nuclear retaliation, support for Taiwan's defense would have to be highly delicate. Unfortunately, Congressional cuts to the Virginia-class submarine program have greatly weakened our ability to fight in the Taiwan strait, and doubly weakened our ability to do so in a deniable fashion.

There is one last point to be made about the Chinese nuclear threat. Those of you who like to hold grudges will note this paragraph from the Federation of American Scientist's report: "The DF-31 is equipped with many technologies stolen or bought from America during Clinton's term. The DF-31 success was so spectacular that the the PLA 2nd Artillery will deploy 24 missiles by the end of 2004." We've been wondering what the price of that negligence would be. Now we know the probable cost of the down payment: Taiwan, and with her the loss to China's R&D team of all the advanced US military technology we've sold Taiwan over the years.

Options for avoiding this scenario are few. We can encourage Taiwan to negotiate a peaceful return to the PRC, removing as part of the negotiations what we can of our previously-sold technologies; or we can encourage Taiwan herself to go nuclear, and arm her to the teeth. The latter position creates another nuclear power finally outside of our control, and could cause an escalation into the very war we'd like to avoid. There are no happy choices here.

The Liberal Conspiracy - Satire, Informed Commentary and 9-11 Research

On the Shrine of Ali:

My old friend Sovay has been worrying about the Shrine of Ali. The US military has been given permission by the Iraqi government to enter the shrine, if necessary to arrest al-Sadr. Since the US military often issues arrest warrants attached to TOW missiles (e.g., the Hussein brothers), I suppose there is some reason to be concerned.

However, I think we've passed the point at which we ought to refrain from returning fire, or chasing fugitives, just because they enter into an Islamic holy building. I have heard, and I have understood, the objection that damaging these holy buildings will create new terrorists and raise the level of hatred for the US in the Muslim world. I have heard, and understood, that this particular building is especially sacred. I'm simply no longer convinced that we should consider these objections to be a primary concern.

What I suspect is the greater producer of terrorists is the sense among radicals that the West is afraid of Islam. What we have been pursuing as an act of decency has been taken as a sign of weakness. Weakness is even more provocative than wrath.

Bin Laden himself wrote that when people see a strong and a weak horse, they naturally like the strong horse. During the war and the initial stages of the occupation, the US military shied from any confrontation that would involve a mosque of any sort. We searched them only with apologies, bombed them only by accident. The result was not a recognition by our enemies that we were fundamentally decent: it was a further endangerment of the innocents in Iraq, as the insurgents integrated their operations into these areas where people lived and prayed. By leaving these holy sites untouched, we left them lawless. By leaving them lawless, we left the people who use them in peril.

The Shrine of Ali has been the scene, since the lawlessness began, of knife-murders, assassinations of high clerics, and bombings -- sometimes all at once. Blood has darkened its stones regularly, and the honest people of Najaf are in danger every time they go there because of the Medhi army and the international villians who are disguised in their uniform.

The Marines took out the tower of a Mosque in Fallujah that was being used as a sniper tower, and rightly so. The eruption of anger was short, and quickly forgotten.

It would be worse, louder and longer, in the event of damage to the Shrine. But it would also pass. In the time beyond, people could return there in safety, under no threat from followers of braying clerics promising to shed their last drops of blood upon its stones.

We have heard that this would be worse for Shias even than the shelling of the Vatican for Catholics. Perhaps. But what if the Vatican had already seen the Pope assassinated in the street before St. Peter's? What if it were now occupied by those same criminals, now armed and defying the world to try and bring justice to them? Sanity demands a cleansing of such places: first by fire, though holy water may follow if it will.

Better, I agree, if Iraqis would do it. Better, I agree, if Sadr would come out and give a stand-up fight. Better to damage it than to destroy it; better grenades than missiles; better knives than grenades. Yes, yes.

But worst, worst by far, to leave such a place in the hands of the wicked.

Mudville Gazette: The Swifts

Milbloggers & Swift Vets:

The Mudville Gazette is conducting interviews with the Swift Vets. I have some thoughts on the matter which I haven't had time to put down, and I don't really have time to put them down now. As a sketch:

1) It's interesting that the Swift Vets who oppose Kerry are not his boatmates, but (a) those from the boats teamed with his, and (b) his chain of command (which was pretty long, since he was a Lt. Junior Grade). His surviving boatmates seem to be supporting him.

2) I wonder if this has something to do with perspective. Consider the much-discussed case of the ambush in which Kerry's boat rescued an overboard Special Forces Lt. Early on in the fight, Kerry's boat speeded out of the kill zone. From the point of view of a draftee in the boat, that's quick thinking that saved your butt. From the point of view of every other boat (and his commanders), that's breaking formation, and skitting away with the backup you yourself are depending upon. Different opinions of whether or not it was the right thing to do are only natural.

Similarly, people under fire see and hear different things, and combat does strange things to the memory (as do other high-stress events like violent crime: ask any cop how many different stories he will usually get from eyewitnesses to the same crime). A number of these differences in accounts are to be expected -- indeed, speaking as a historian, they would be conspicuous by their absence.

3) That kind of thing can clear up only some of the disputes, however. I see little joy for Kerry in the "Christmas in Cambodia" business. His office has let this one go for days now without a response (except to say that he was misquoted, which doesn't wash because the quote is in the Congressional Record), and I'm starting to wonder if it's because there isn't one.

4) Then there are the real charges of war crimes, in particular indiscriminate shooting at civilians. Frankly, this one seems highly likely to be true. I say that because it isn't a disagreement: both parties have attested to it. Kerry himself stated that he did it: "I took part in shootings in free fire zones. I conducted harassment and interdiction fire. I used 50 calibre machine guns, which we were granted and ordered to use, which were our only weapon against people. I took part in search and destroy missions, in the burning of villages." The Swift Vets' claims only echo what Kerry himself has said. The odds, if you like to calculate odds, are highly in favor of Kerry being guilty of some of these war crimes.

5) There remain other claims that will take time to evaluate. Foremost among these is the charge that Kerry was sent out of Vietnam by a chain of command that didn't trust him -- that is a devastating charge, but one that needs full examination. Second is the charge that he faked or manipulated his medals. That one I have considered disproven thanks to Snopes; we'll see if there is new evidence or not.

6) The brutality of the political response to these charges has not encouraged me to believe that Kerry is the victim. Neither has the refusal to release his records. But the worst thing of all has been that he hasn't answered the charges. He's got a lot to answer for, particularly on the Cambodia and war crimes questions, where his own recorded statements are evidence against him. These are not small matters, but accusations Kerry made that great crimes were committed under his eyes and under his command. It is past time that he answered to the charges he has himself raised.

BLACKFIVE

Help the Troops:

I occasionally get asked (even, some of you may be surprised to know, by Sovay) for ways to help support the troops. There are a number of good options available. BlackFive has a partial listing today, which includes a number of good ones, some I've mentioned to you before and some I haven't. (Those of you who read several MilBlogs regularly, however, will be familiar with all or most of them.)

Thanks to B-5 for putting the list together. It's a good one, to which I'll refer people who ask in the future.

donga.com [english donga]

The End:

...is nigh for Kim Jong-Il.

UPDATE: You can see pictures of the exercise here, at the website of the RENK NGO. If you read Japanese, you can read their eyewitness account of it.

UPDATE II: For you Information Operations warriors: back in January, China issued a bald territorial claim to much of Korea. It did this through claiming an ancient kingdom called "Goguryeo," also romanized as "Koguryo." This is a pre-Korean kingdom, in the sense that the language we have recovered from it is not Korean, but older. China has claimed it as a part of 'Greater Historic China,' which is incidentally exactly the reason they claim the right to own Tibet.

In late June, China managed to get the World Heritage Committee to recognize its claim. It did this through an expensive presentation that really "wowed" the WHC. This is not normally a political body -- but it means that China can now claim "international recognition" for its territorial ambitions.

Now that you know that, have a gander at today's Google News on the topic. Lot of ink for an ancient kingdom, eh?

Iraq offers amnesty in bid to gain insurgents' help

A Nice Analogy:

On a day when Iranian diplomats were being taken hostage by Iraqis who want Iran to stay out of their business, Iran's state radio has carried a charming statement by Ayatollah Khamanei. He says that America, in Iraq, is "like a trapped wolf."

It is oddly reflective of Jefferson:

We have the wolf by the ears, and we can neither hold him, nor safely let him go. Justice is in one scale, and self preservation in the other.

Khamanei is righter than he knows. Iran has caught the wolf by the ears. Their activities in support of the insurgency, Hezbollah, and Qaeda elements is the last wrench of their strength to hold on. But the wolf will come free. When it does, it will not be gentler with them than it was with us:

Yet, if God wills that... every drop of blood drawn with the lash shall be paid by another drawn with the sword, as was said three thousand years ago, so still it must be said 'the judgments of the Lord are true and righteous altogether.'

So surely they would say in Iran, thinking of a different god. Indeed, the attention they have demanded from us is such that we can almost hear the words, that we know many of them: "Inshallah... sayyaf... Allah... halal."

Now they have the wolf by the ears. Let them see where he carries them.

SteynOnline

We Love You, Mark, But...

SteynOnline is hosting a discussion of whether shotguns can be used for deer hunting. The occasion is the John Kerry quote about 'crawling about on his belly' with his trusty 12-gauge. Mark's British readers are highly suspicious of the concept.

Well, never mind what posture he adopts to shoot: check out his choice of firearm. He refers to "my trusty 12-gauge". This would be what we in England call a 12-bore shotgun. Now, I don't know about Massachusetts, but in England and Scotland deer are stalked and shot with a rifle fitted with a telescopic site, and I can't believe it is any different in the U.S....

I just have two questions:

(1) Can (or should) you take deer with a 12-gauge shotgun?...

Good God, Mark, you missed a big one! You must not be a hunter either, or surely you would have said something about the larger faux pas.

No, you don't crawl around on your blinkin' stomach to hunt deer... but you also NEVER use a shotgun, because 1) it's illegal everywhere, and 2) it doesn't work worth a damn. If you did manage to hit one with your 12ga, most likely it would only wound the animal and you'd never catch up with it....

Almost nobody hunts deer any more with a shotgun, certainly not by choice....

Let's hope John-boy isn't out hunting deer with a 12 gauge, even if on his stomach. It is illegal to do so in every place I've heard of; you use a shotgun for birds, not large game....

Only a complete moron would hunt deer with a shotgun WITHOUT USING A SLUG. Nobody on the face of the planet (that I have ever heard of) does that....

Uh-huh. Look, it's obvious that Kerry hasn't done any deer hunting -- that business about crawling about on his belly gives him away. But come on -- Ya'll ever heard of a little invention called "buckshot"? What kind of "buck" did you think they meant?

Fortunately a couple of his readers finally set him straight, rather late in the Saturnalia.

The Scotsman - Top Stories - Judges clear policeman convicted of rape on DNA evidence

On Evidence:

The Scotsman today has a story of a policemen, just released from prison after serving four years for rape. He was the first man convicted in Scotland on DNA evidence; the prosecution told the jury that the odds were 1 in 100,000 that he was the wrong man.

But he was the wrong man.

The overturn of his conviction is a step forward. However, there is a particularly sad note to this tale. In a nation in which violent felons are regularly paroled within the smallest fraction of their sentence, Mr. Kelly served four years of the six to which he was sentenced. The reason he was not paroled sooner? "[H]is release on parole was delayed because he continued to deny his guilt."

Another life lesson, like those in the Havamal:

A snapping bow, a burning flame,
A grinning wolf, a grunting boar,
A raucous crow, a rootless tree,
A breaking wave, a boiling kettle,

A flying arrow, an ebbing tide,
A coiled adder, the ice of a night,
A bride's bed talk, a broad sword,
A bear's play, a prince' s children,

A witch' s welcome, the wit of a servant,
A sick calf, a corpse still fresh,

A brother's killer encountered upon
The highway, a house half-burned,
A racing stallion who has wrenched a leg,
Are never safe: let no man trust them.

Neither trust the state, when it bases its claims on some innovation in science. Not that, nor the word of prosecutors, who are only another sort of politician. When called to jury, be wary of such things. Put your trust in hard facts, and the testimony of men you deem honorable.

How big Al Qaeda's footprint is in the US | csmonitor.com

Al Qaeda:

If victory is in sight, yet some dangers still remain. Al Qaeda's footprint in the US is of unknown size, as the Christian Science Monitor reports, and it is possible that they may succeed in carrying out spectacular assaults even in their death throes.

US officials have closed down several major fundraising operations believed to have terrorist ties. They've also worked successfully with intelligence agencies overseas in attacking Al Qaeda at its core. "We've had some major successes [overseas with Al Qaeda.] We've slain the dragon, but now we're dealing with room full of snakes," says Frank Cilluffo of George Washington University and a former security adviser to President Bush. "What you've seen now is the franchising of Al Qaeda. They're in England, Jordan, Spain, and there've been a number of arrests recently that bode well."

But the question remains, how many snakes are there in the US ... and can they be caught before they strike again.

:: Digital Marine ::

Afghan Front:

Our lad Digital Marine has an update on the 22nd MEU(SOC).

bloodletting.blog-city.com

What Victory Looks Like:

Are we winning? Doc Russia joins the chorus, which already includes me and the Belmont Club. That last voice looks at the trends not just for Iraq, al Qaeda and Islamism, but for the intifada as well.

The intifada has vented its suicidal wrath on Israelis, but in recent weeks criticism of the Palestinian Authority has ensconced itself in common parlance. "Not only was the intifada a failure, but we are a total failure. We achieved nothing in 50 years of struggle; we've achieved only our survival."

And as terrorist warfare slows to a gasping halt, Zubeidi sees the violence turning inward.

The handover in Iraq has been everything we hoped it would be. When, in April, we found our soldiers and Marines fighting al-Sadr's men, they faced outrage from the press and the protests here at home. When they fought them this week, there has been near silence about it. The only article on CNN's weekend edition focuses on Allawi's peace overtures, not on the slaughter of these hardened fighters by the far more deadly US Marines. We kept our promises. We put Iraq on the road to freedom, and we're helping to keep her there. Iraqis see it, know it, and even the press can't ignore it any more.

(An aside: CNN could use a better editor. That article includes this line:

Iraq has temporarily reinstated a limited version of its death penalty, the interim minister of state announced Sunday.

A limited version of the death penalty. Well, now, that is progress.)

This is what victory looks like. It's not over, and we continue to lose brave men to ambush and murder. We continue to see outrages in the press. But we are winning. It's a straight road to victory. We just need to carry on.

Op Sum Fun

Riot in Iraq, No Press Coverage:

Via the Mudville Gazette, this story about a riotous event in Iraq. Somehow, unlike long-ago riots, this one didn't get any press coverage except for one local paper. Greyhawk wonders if the casualty count was just too low to draw press interest. Still, he says, if this mob has anything to say about it, some GIs may never go home from Iraq.

It certainly seems like a story worthy of some interest.

Kim du Toit - View Original Post & Comments

Freedom, Police & the Military:

Kim du Toit has begun an excellent discussion on the topic of whether modern police agencies too much resemble the "standing armies" that worried the Founders. It's a long piece with many thoughtful replies (plus a reply from me, which I hope others will consider thoughtful). I won't try to reprise the discussion here -- I just refer you to it, for consideration.

For those of you not familiar with Kim's site, the original post is at the bottom.

The Scotsman - Top Stories - Al-Qaeda suspects on run

Get 'em, Boys:

Following the leads uncovered by US and Pakistani military intelligence, Scotland Yard goes after five Qaeda suspects. They apparently escaped raids earlier in the week, and a nationwide manhunt continues.

SteynOnScreen

Movie Review:

I haven't seen King Arthur, though I had wanted to and may yet if I can still find anywhere showing it. This review by the redoubtable Mark Steyn, however, is worth reading even if you never see the flick.

there's a complicating factor. A huge Saxon army has just hit the beach and they're also interested in the bigshot Romans, as potentially lucrative hostages. If you think there's too much Saxon violence in the movies these days, wait'll you see these guys. Their general, Sir Dick or, as I discovered in the closing credits, Cerdic, is a mountain of blond hair extensions. Perhaps some insensitive locals tittered at him as he waded ashore, but, for whatever reason, the Saxons slaughter everyone they come across in a frenzy of Woad rage. As Cerdic, Stellan Skarsgard hams up his dialogue with a throaty rumble that sounds like he came first in this year's Stockholm round of the Nick Nolte karaoke competition. When he hears about the Roman estate nearby, he dispatches a rape'n'pillage squad led by his son Cynric, because it takes his child to raze a village.

BLACKFIVE

Ambush!

Our lad (and new father! Congrats, and welcome Grace!) BlackFive has a video of a truck full of fellow contractors getting ambushed in Iraq, while part of an Army convoy. Short version: They punch the gas, and keep their position with the US Army Hummers they're convoying with.

It's worth watching to hear the voices. Once again, I feel justified in my pride at being a Southerner. The leader, and coolest head, has an accent I would place at the Northern Alabama/North Georgia border. Just the kind of fellow I'd want riding beside me, in a pinch.

Ambassador's CV

Singapore:

For reasons much too complicated to rehearse, I spent Tuesday night at the Embassy of Singapore in Washington, D.C. The occasion was the National Day of Singapore, which is their version of Independence Day. I got to meet Tom Ridge, who came to give a short speech praising Singapore's economic growth and stout alliance to the U.S. war on terror.

I also met Ambassador Chan Heng Chee. Singapore has three main ethnic groups: Chinese, Malay, and Indian. The Chinese, like Ambassador Chan, are the majority. In her nine years in D.C., she's learned Western manners completely, and manages to be sufficiently forthright to be charming. Forthrightness in women is not highly encouraged in Chinese culture, which prefers politeness and the maintenance of social harmony to truth-telling. She does all right, though.

It was a pretty hefty crowd who came out to celebrate Singapore's National Day. There were quite a few Defense contractors -- not DOD-exclusive contractors like me, but people who represented firms that hoped to do business with Singapore itself. There were also some State people, but what really caught my eye were the naval officers. Men in uniform were everywhere, but almost none of them were from branches of the service other than the navy. Almost every navy in the world was represented: I saw an Egyptian naval officer conversing with an Israeli, met an Aussie captain, and saw officers from every Scandinavian navy afloat.

After the speechmaking and dinner, I ended up hanging around with a US navy captain in the submarine service. I've written before about the quality of the sailors in the submarine service, which I've always found to be excellent. I spent a good portion of the evening comparing notes on hurricanes with the gentleman -- his favorite was one he rode out in the Atlantic, four-hundred feet down, which still caused the boat to roll. I'm not sure if mine was Floyd -- which was the size of Texas when she made landfall -- or Opal, which rode all the way up into the North Georgia mountains and rocked the Appalachians near Camp Frank D. Merrill. You can get out to Amicalola Falls State Park, if any of you are deployed at Camp Frank, and see where there are still a lot of trees down from Opal. I rode out Isabel last year, but she wasn't much. I have a couple of good stories about her, but really there was never any danger.

I relate all this to convey a bit of the "diplomatic" work behind the GWOT. I don't often have anything to do with it myself, but these kinds of things go on every night, all around the world. Just like the intelligence work mentioned below -- which famously belongs to the CIA, but which the military does tirelessly and often better -- diplomacy isn't just the State Department. The men in uniform do a hero's share of that work too. If "diplomacy" isn't a dirty word, I expect it's their doing that keeps it clean. Honesty, integrity, and the pride of the service go a long way to enhancing the strength of a man's word.

Pity the fellow with that duty, though. It was a pleasant enough evening, but if I had to do it every night, I think I'd go nuts pretty quickly. It's no better duty than kitchen patrol -- a necessary, tiresome duty that someone has to perform.

Taliban flush with cash for attacks - War on Terror - www.theage.com.au

The Afghan Front:

There's a story out of the Age of Australia called "Taliban flush with cash for attacks." Bad news sells more papers, as they say, and the editors have chosen the bad news from the story for the headline and lead paragraphs. But there's some very good news inside:

General Khan's forces captured Mujahid, a former deputy defence minister, on July 6. They seized a satellite phone, a notebook of expenses and a diary of phone numbers, including that of a mobile phone used by the fugitive Taliban leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar, a close ally of bin Laden. Mujahid is now being interrogated by the Americans at Bagram air base, near Kabul.

A US military official declined to say what else had been gleaned from Mujahid, but his arrest, along with the recent capture of several relatives and aides, has given US and Afghan intelligence officials a crucial insight into Taliban operations. The mobile number was traced to Quetta in Pakistan.

"Afghan agents made Mujahid ring Omar's number, but Omar put the phone down after Mujahid mentioned a code word that meant he had been captured," said General Khan. "It was just bad luck." The discovery that Omar is apparently directing operations from inside Pakistan has increased pressure on Islamabad to curb Taliban activities on its soil.

Grim's Hall noted the satellite phonecall to Mullah Omar when it was first reported. It looks like his residence in Quetta was why they didn't hit him with a guided missile. Today's report brings new detail about the level of intel that's being captured in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Two things worth noting -- the intelligence officers involved on our side are "US military officials." That underlines a point about the nature of the GWoT: the majority of intelligence victories we've seen are coming from military actions, not from the civilian intel agencies. This includes not only the captured files of the Iraqi Intelligence Service, or the surrender of the Libyan nuclear program by a dictator who didn't want to be next. It also includes all of these captured fighters, their documents, and so forth. Pakistan's ISI and our CIA are surely not idle, but the ones we see getting the job done are military men. That should settle the question of whether or not the GWoT is "primarily an intelligence and law enforcement" operation: even if it is that, the military does it better.

The second point to reflect on is how many captures there have been in Pakistan lately. That we know of, we've got Mujahid, a formerly high-placed official; the "High Value Target" Qaeda capture of last week; and the computer junkie who had all the pictures of financial centers. All of these captures were disclosed to us only some time after they were made -- "several weeks" in the case of our computer cowboy, allegedly "days" in the Qaeda case, and so forth.

The war is rolling along, and I see every reason to be cheerful about it. They've got millions; we've got billions. They can move in relative freedom, we hear, though we capture them now and then -- but when did you last hear of a US general officer being captured by the Taliban, or anyone else? It was actually tried in Ramadi, with the result that the US Marine Generals took up rifles and ran the enemy off. Staying the course, bold and brave, is the road to victory.

Marine Corps News> Lejeune battalion calls in air power to clear the road

Fire From Heaven:

What do you do when you've got a tanker truck blocking your road, and local HUMINT tells you that there's an IED placed inside of it? The headline tells the story: "Lejeune battalion calls in air power to clear the road."

JHD writes to draw attention to this part of the story: "Once the elements were on site, a cordon was set to block traffic and clear the area of civilians. Some members of the unit believed there were terrorists hiding in a nearby palm grove so the air controller arranged a surprise for them." Heh, heh.

lgf: coffee break's over. back on your heads.

Afghanistan:

From LGF, we see what is really amazing news: 90% of Afghans are registered to vote. This is a UN figure, so it's probably a distortion of the truth... but still, even the UN can only distort so much.

The Green Side

A Letter from the Front:

The Green Side presents another letter from Fallujah, by a Major of Marines who signs his name simply as "Dave."

FreeSpeech.com

The Sudan:

Well, it finally happened. One of the conspiracy theorists has finally spouted off on the Sudan. It happened over at Del's FreeSpeech:

By the way...Soudan is everyday looking like another Rwanda....where are the good american- peace- reatoring-soldiers...???

Aahhhhh [expletive -- see how the bracket thing works? -Grim] ...I should have known better...THERE IS NO OIL IN SOUDAN !!!!

There actually is quite a bit of oil in the Sudan. In fact, control over the oil and its revenue is the main thing the Sudanese are fighting over.

The oilfields are in the South of Sudan, which is primarily Christian and animist by faith; but the export facilities are all in the north, which is under the control of the Muslim militants.

These last, it should be remembered, are not the legitimate government of Sudan -- they violently overthrew the legitimate government, and established control over the North by force. Now they are trying to do the same to the South, precisely because they can't afford secession by the region which has all the oil.

Both sides are trying to bill this as a contest between religions, and to some degree that's true -- but not to a very large degree. The agitation for the Sha'riah law in the North of Sudan, for example, comes mostly from the populace rather than from the militants who control the area. The populace, which by and large recognizes these militants for the thugs that they are, wants a Sha'riah system because it removes judicial control from the militants, and places it instead in the hands of local imams everyone knows and trusts.

The South is resisting the Sha'riah because they aren't Muslims, and want to be independent. The ethnic cleansing is an attempt to destroy the groups that want independence -- which happens to be the Christians and the animists. But the war in Sudan really is all about oil, or at least, the great majority of it is.

So my question to you: if the US is a Crusader power, that is runs its foreign policy based on oil, why aren't we already in Sudan? We could deal a defeat to a Muslim state, erect a Christian one in the South, and then build ourselves an oil pipeline that would give us sole control of the Sudanese oil fields -- a rather nicer deal for us than that mythical Afghanistan pipeline that we supposedly want, but somehow never get around to building. The UN might even applaud us for our actions in the Sudan.

So why aren't we?

Instapundit.com

Fun with Brackets:

Via Instapundit, the article on Kerry and the Marines. I was reading this over, and a thought struck me:

The Marines -- two in uniform and two off-duty -- were polite but curt while chatting with Kerry, answering most of his questions with a 'yes, sir' or 'no, sir.' . . .

'He imposed on us and I disagree with him coming over here shaking our hands,' one Marine said, adding, 'I'm 100 percent against [him].'

Usually brackets are used by editors to repair verb tenses when they're using a partial quote, or to change a pronoun to a [Kerry] so you'll know of whom they're speaking. I don't think I've seen brackets used to insert a pronoun in quite this way before.

Which leads to the question: Just what did they replace? I'll wager that it was something unprintable.

American Digest: What Lincoln Would Say Were He Speaking in Springfield Today

Lincoln Variations:

From the American Digest, via the good Doc.

Grim's Hall

Gun Show Notes:

Just got back from today's gun show at the Dulles Expo Center in Fairfax County, Virginia. A few notes from the day:

* This is the first gun show in Fairfax County in quite a long time. The county had instituted a waiting period for gun purchases, the effect of which was to make it impossible to hold a gun show -- the dealer wouldn't be around in thirty days to hand over the weapon you'd bought, and the cost of shipping it to you more than overrides the savings you'd get from attending the show.

* One of the state senators who worked hardest to override the law got on the PA system to congratulate all the folks -- many in the room -- who had worked to make the show possible. There was a resounding round of applause.

* Lots of political activity in the hall. People were talking about gun-control proposals from both the state and federal governments, and every official up for re-election must have had a table. And no wonder: I was standing by one poor fellow, a man in his late fifties, who learned while asking about parts for an old firearm of his that he was a felon. Some ATF official had, without benefit of legislation, ruled that a kind of firearm he'd owned for thirty years was illegal -- and didn't grandfather in existing ones. (See, this is one reason why people get irritated by gun-control laws. The ATF takes a guy who's never been in any sort of trouble his whole life, and turns him into a felon with a stroke of a pen.)

* There must have been several thousand people in the Expo center, with more coming and leaving by the minute. The show was obviously a great success.

* I haven't been to a gun show in probably ten years. Indeed, I only went to this one because the wife and wee one are out of town, and I had the day free with nothing else to do. I always forget several things about gun shows:

1) They are incredibly crowded events, no matter how big the hall is. This is the main reason I don't like them. I was raised in the Georgia mountains, and I hate crowds. For me, that's any room with more than about two people in it, although if it's a really big room I can endure a dozen.

2) The gun show really is an event for collectors. All those people who fret about these things being crime marts can quit worrying. I would estimate that fully 80% of the tables aren't selling anything that would be useful to a criminal. Most of them are selling antique long arms, or blackpowder revolvers from the 19th century, or other weapons so outdated that you'd really need to spend some time learning to operate them. Between the antiques and the collectibles, the books, the knife merchants, the people selling holsters and carrying cases, the people selling bumperstickers, and the people selling militaria (old uniforms, etc.) there's actually very little space devoted to anything "dangerous." I'm always surprised by how few people there are selling modern firearms. Maybe 10% of the tables have them for sale; maybe another 10% have knives. The rest is stuff no criminal would even want.

3) They had two separate areas for simulators, one of which looked top notch. It had a big screen which displayed real movies of potential tactical situations -- when I walked by there, it was a display of a college classroom where someone was taking hostages. The whole thing was linked to a lightgun, so that you could test yourself under realistic conditions and timing. It's intended for police training, and is similar in form to some of the things the Marines do for MOUT training. It should produce good results in improving tactical responses. I noted that, although it was developed for cops, it was portable and the sign said that they'd bring it out to your club if you wanted to hire them for a weekend.

4) The other simulator was simpler, but had one really nifty element. They'd rigged up some .45 frames with lasers, but also with a motor that would "kick" in the right way to simulate recoil. They then had targets that could tell where the laser was pointed when you pulled the trigger. You could therefore practice with realistic recoil, without ammo.

* I only bought one thing: a holster for my new revolver. It was pretty hard to find one. I don't care for cloth or formed-ballistic-nylon holsters, which is the great majority of what is available. I like gunleather, and in fact, I insist on it.

I spent nearly forever looking around, but found few dealers that had leather holsters, and none that had what I wanted. Then, in the very back of the hall, I found a place called "Backwoods Gunleather," which had some beautiful stuff. I looked it over and grabbed a single-loop holster.

I took it up to the guy, and asked if he had one in that make that would fit a K-Frame Smith & Wesson. He said no, that he only made this particular holster for single-actions, mostly for Cowboy Action re-enactors. I said I thought this one I had in my hand was the right size, but he insisted that it wouldn't fit. He gave me a long speech to talk me out of buying it, explaining several things I already knew about the technical differences between single and double action revolvers.

Finally, seeing that I was not deterred, he sighed and said that he didn't even have a K-frame "red gun" (a plastic mockup in the right size, used by police for training and holster-makers for construction of holsters). Or, at least, he thought he didn't. Well, he'd look. Hey, actually, he did. So he brought it over and slipped it into the holster...

...and it fit like a glove. I bought it and brought it home. It's like it was made for me, and just waiting on me to show up and buy it. It's even a crossdraw design, which I happen to prefer.

All in all, a good day. They're open tomorrow too, so if you're in the area, you might stop by.

Marine Corps News> 11th MEU Marine awarded Navy Cross for legendary day during OIF

Congratulations II:

Another set of congratulations are due. Let's hear it for Marine First Sergeant Justin D. Lehew, winner of the Navy Cross. It's taken more than a year to get the paperwork approved, but it was finally awarded on 24 July.

Article

A Gunslinger:

Congratulations to Marine Gunnery Sergeant Brian Zins.

24th MEU History

USMC Iraq Updates:

The 24th MEU(SOC) is now fully deployed in Iraq; JarHeadDad points out that they're bunking with the 2/2 Marines. The 24th has a short but proud history, including the daring rescue of downed pilot Scott O'Grady in the Bosnian conflict.

In other news, Marines are taking worthless souvenirs of their time in Iraq, and riding around with the Army while taking over stability operations. They're also making Iraq a safer place by destroying enemy munitions by the mountain, and using up some of their own stockpiles, too.

The Economics of Obesity

Smoke 'Em:

This one is mostly for Doc Russia, who was advocating a good cigar the other day:

We have also unmasked a second and perhaps more surprising culprit in the alarming rise in obesity: the crackdown on smoking via tax increases. Higher cigarette taxes and higher cigarette prices have caused more smokers to quit -- but these smokers seem to have begun eating more as a result. According to our research, each 10 percent increase in the real price of cigarettes produces a 2 percent increase in the number of obese people, other things being equal.

Clearly, those who curtail their habit or quit smoking altogether typically gain weight as the appetite-suppressing and metabolism-increasing effects of smoking come to an end. This is no small effect: The inflation-adjusted price of cigarettes has risen by approximately 164 percent since 1980. This large growth resulted in part from four federal excise tax hikes, a number of state tax hikes, and the settlement of the state lawsuits filed against cigarette manufacturers to recover Medicaid funds spent treating diseases related to smoking. The rise in the real price of cigarettes is the second-most important factor next to the growth in restaurants in the trend in the post-1980 obesity trend. We estimate that it accounts for almost 20 percent of the growth in obesity.

There you go. Smoke, and you increase your risk of heart disease and cancer; don't smoke, and you increase your risk of heart disease and diabetes, depression, and cancer. Smoke, and you may join the 430,000 people a year who die from smoking-related illness; don't smoke, and you may join the 400,000 people a year who die from obesity-related illness.

Once again, a life of regulated vice seems to be the wisest choice.

KeepMedia | Esquire: The Case for George W. Bush

Bring Me Everyone:

I don't turn to Esquire looking for philosophy, but maybe I should. Thanks to The Mudville Gazette, I see that they've printed a piece of particular power and insight into the nature of war, and the war on terror.

Telegraph | Arts | For love of liberty

On Germany:

The Telegraph has a piece on Germany. It contains, in analyzing one of Germany's leading thinkers, a cutting insight:

He agrees that the European Union is, among other things, a project to avoid war at all costs, but he does not see what a burden this throws upon America, Britain and, indeed, the free world which he loves.

Exactly.

Haaretz - Israel News

OutStanding!

The Arrow lives! This was pretty close to a make-or-break test, and it's good to see that it's pulled through.

Tim Worstall: Anybody but Sully Project.

Ponies in the Rain:

For those of you participating in the anti-Andrew Sullivan pledge drive, Grim's Hall is endorsing Tim Worstall's project. He's supporting a charity that does "sports therapy" for handicapped kids, putting them on horseback and teaching them to ride.

Grim's Hall feels that horseback riding, like the regular practice of gunfighting skills, is the God-given right of every American. For my leftist readers (I'm always surprised by how many I have), I would point out that Edward Abbey supported both.

The notoriety brought by The Monkey Wrench Gang, together with the literary respectability of Desert Solitaire, combined to provide him a bully pulpit, which he used to spout off on feminism (bad), mountain lions (good), immigration (give 'em a rifle and send 'em home), cowboys (peasants on horseback), and the National Parks (rip out the roads).

Teddy Roosevelt did too, as it happens. In fact, it's how he overcame a severe case of asthma, and went on to become a hero to those who enjoy a life fully lived. His example lives on in this charity, and it therefore deserves our support and admiration.

CNN.com - Pakistan captures high-level al Qaeda operative - Jul 29, 2004

Stories that Really Are True:

CNN reports that Pakistan has captured a high-level al Qaeda operative. There is only speculation as to exactly who it is, although Reuters names Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani based on a report from Al Arabiya.

UPDATE: In regard to the speculation we're seeing about this, here is what I wrote about this on 8 July, when the New Republic story broke:

This rumor has been bouncing around for a while now--since early May for certain. Josh Marshall first aired it in the English language press, citing "chatter" among Pakistani intelligence sources.

Evaluating intelligence, as we've discussed, is like figuring odds for poker. The odds are high that these propositions are true:

1) Someone that Marshall believes to have connections to the ISI said something like this to him, and,

2) Someone (perhaps the same someone) said the same thing to someone from TNR, and,

3) There probably really is a rumor to this effect circulating in Pakistan.

Proposition three is likely to be true because Pakistan contains the highest per-capita ratio of conspiracy theorists on the ground anywhere. A few days' reading of the Frontier Post (out of Peshawar), the Balochistan Post, and the Nation of Pakistan (all available online) will demonstrate what I mean.

The odds are a lot lower on this proposition:

4) The US told the ISI to capture someone important around 28 July.

This proposition requires the Bush administration to be Machivellian enough to plan in those terms, and also confident of the ISI's capability to believe they could capture a high value target on demand, and also confident that the ISI would carry out such orders. Opinions can differ on point one, but points two and three would require a faith in the ISI's competence and loyalty totally unjustified by past events.

Here's a piece of personal speculation on a more likely proposition:

5) A high-value target has already been captured.

In this scenario, the ISI need only be cynical enough to believe that the announcement will be made during the DNC--which is, given Pakistani politics, only reasonably cynical. They would, in this case, be gaming their media contacts to win increased influence with the TNRs and Josh Marshalls of the world. That's just what intelligence agents do--game people based on secret information, in order to manipulate them.

I'd lay money that proposition 5 is the true one, and we've got someone big that we haven't admitted to yet because we're still benefitting from interrogating them. We'll see, in the fullness of time.

Our Josh Marshall really ought to learn this part by heart: clandestine service officers game people. He's been getting it hard for the last several months, and he doesn't even see it. I'm sure these guys are really sympathetic when they leak him "secret" information. 'You have such a vivid voice,' I reckon they tell him. 'I wish I could write like you, and get the truth out about this administration. You see through all the mist. Here, this can help you...'

And Josh, who wants nothing more than to believe that he's smarter than you, prints it. I hate to be the one to tell you, son, but these people lie for a living. I'm sorry to break your heart, but you're not in the secret club. This is just what they do. What you probably really do believe is the Secret Truth is just a tale told to move your heart, whereby you are used to advance their careers, fight their little bureaucrat wars, and advance their political interests.

Stories you wish were true

Stories You Wish Were True:

The Russian newswires are reporting, I am told, that Zarqawi has been arrested by US and Iraqi forces. I haven't heard any confirmation of this from any non-Russian source, and I rather doubt it simply because I can't imagine why the Russians would know. Probably it isn't true -- but we can wish, and even hope.

UPDATE: The report is now online. Unhappily, there is also a denial.

Dispatches�From Fallujah - On an�April day, 30 Iraqi lives, one brave Marine�and another's hands, and another's legs�were lost. By Owen�West

Recon:

Even among Marines, there are legends. Recon is one of them.

Grim's Hall

Pistols in the Barroom, Ponies in the Rain:

Just got back from the range. Now, I have a confession to make about that to my fellow Knights of St. John Moses: I haven't been to a range in way too long. I spent the last year resident in Maryland, where shooting sports are quasi legal and tightly regulated, and to participate in them you have to register your guns with the state (like hell, says I). As a consequence, it's been over a year since I've shot.

However, now that I am happily resident out Virginia way, that's going to change. A gun shop down the highway has a range out back, and so long as you buy your targets and ammo there, you can shoot for free as often as you like, 0900 to 1700 daily. They keep a range safety officer on duty, and my experience today was that he was highly competent. It is, in other words, a cheap, pleasant, safe place to shoot.

I'm going to make it a habit to get down there at least once a week, for at least a box of ammo, until I'm shooting back at the level I used to aspire to in my tactical match days. After that, I'll be making a monthly trip at least.

All that said -- have a gander:

This group came from my brand new .357 Magnum. I shot six rounds to get the feel of the thing, then shot these six on a standard 75-foot range. Smith & Wesson makes fine weapons: the very first round out of the box went through the center ring. For this group, the first round was the one in the center, and then they began to pull up. You can see I adjusted fire down for the sixth round. Still, first one in the white, while the other five in this group stayed in the black. Kim du Toit was talking about how a .357 Magnum with a four-inch barrel is hard to control in sustained fire, and he's right:

Very few people can control a 4"-barreled .357 Mag revolver properly (unless the barrel is ported), especially when it comes to getting off the second shot quickly. I would never consider a .357 Mag with anything less than 6" -- size does matter, in this case. But a Ruger .357 revolver is an excellent choice.

Still, I hope you all noticed the irony that, just a few inches later, Kim advocated the S&W "Mountain Gun" in .44 Remington Magnum with a 4" barrel. I have one of those too, and it's a bear. Still my favorite piece to hike around with.

I may take his advice and get the barrel ported, just for speed on the second tap. I certainly will want a trigger job. Still -- for a guy who hasn't shot in a year, using a brand new gun in a challenging caliber, I think I did OK. Always did love a Smith & Wesson.

PS: If the title of this post means nothing to you, it's a line from a song by Cowboy Nation, one of the few good things besides Hollywood Marines to come out of California.

BLACKFIVE

Shirley Temple Awards:

I was doing some reading over at BlackFive today, when I came across a disused category called "The Shirley Temple Drink Awards":

Blackfive says, "Hey, Jackass, let me buy you a drink!" - A Shirley Temple!...

Michael Moore - Big lying scumbag who wins an Academy Award for a documentary that contains moslty fabricated material (Nuclear Missles in Columbine, buying a weapon over the counter, etc. ad nauseum). This guy might possibly do more to harm America than any traitor we have ever had.

It happens that I am a regular purchaser of Shirely Temples (with extra cherries)... for dear Sovay, who drinks little else. In any event, I'd like to lobby B-5 to resume this neglected category. If anyone else would care to join my petition, feel free to drop into the comment section any nominees. Remember the Hall comment policy, though, adopted from the Texas Mercury:

As we see it, modern society has all the important ideas of life exactly backwards: we are completely against the belief in sensitivity and tolerance in politics and raffish disregard in private life. The Texas Mercury is founded on the opposite principles- our idea is of tolerance and polite sensitivity in private life and ruthless truth in politics. Be nice to your neighbor. Be hell to his ideas.

Buying people drinks is nice, right?

Liberty Dad - a World Without Dictators

A Useful Fantasy:

Liberty Dad has written a very good speech for President Bush. It is on the topic of Darfur in the Sudan, but by way of that, it's about another topic even more important: the use of force by a democracy.

Marine Corps News> Marine battalion defeats attackers in Ar Ramadi again

Ooh-rah!

Marine Corps News> Iraqi soldiers' sacrifice in Marine zone saves lives of 250

Brethren in Arms:

Does it matter that they are Iraqis? Only to the good, I think.

The Australian: Secrets of a terror turncoat [July 17, 2004]

Speaking of Which:

As for the chances of turning terrorists, The Australian has an interview for you to read.

UK forms special unit to fight Al Qaeda

Intel Reform:

The British are ahead of us, as usual.

A new special forces regiment is being formed in Britain to effectively tackle terrorist groups like Al Qaeda, a report said today.

The Reconnaissance and Surveillance Regiment will work closely with the Special Air Service (SAS) and the Special Boat Service. Its mission will be to penetrate groups, either directly or by "turning" terrorists into double agents....

It will be given the authority to operate around the world, working closely with friendly intelligence agencies such as the US intelligence agency CIA and Israel's Mossad, the Sunday Telegraph reported.

lgf: lost and found

Daily KOS:

Charles at LGF wants to remind us just who Zuniga of the Daily KOS is, and what he's done. Charles is interested, because the DNC has given Zuniga credentials at its convention.

I haven't forgotten. Nor shall I soon.

Instapundit.com

InstaPundit & the 9/11 Commission:

The Sage reports that the 9/11 commission has been repeating the words of bloggers.

We are facing, the report notes, a loose confederation of people who believe in a perverted stream of Islam that stretches from Ibn Taimaya to Sayyid Qutb.... We also need to mount our own ideological counteroffensive.

He's right.

Well, as to that: Here's mine, current as of 25 March 2003. It speaks to Qutb, but also to Socrates, Alcuin, Ingeld and Christ. I'll stand by it, a year and more on. Who else has something?

The "Kosher Nostra Scam" on the American Consumer

"The Kosher Nostra"

I must admit that, in my humble opinion, this is the best Zionist Conspiracy Theory yet. Did you know that major food companies pay "protection" money to a Rabbinical council? Well, they don't -- but the Voice of Aztlan makes a convincing case that they are idiots who don't understand a thing about consumer marketing.

:: Digital Marine ::

Campaign Slogans:

Devil Dog Digital Marine has a suggestion for the Kerry/Edwards campaign. A warning to my lady readers: the language is just what you'd expect from an opinionated Marine.

Google Search: "suicide bomb" -israel

The Death of the Suicide Bomber?

While reading up on the explosion in the hostage taking industry (The Belmont Club is the leader in thinking about this topic), a thought struck me. When was the last major suicide bombing, excepting Israel? A GoogleNews Search on the topic produces a lot of commentary, but few recent news stories.

The suicide bomber was always primarily a psychological weapon. Even in Israel, where they have been fielded most heavily and for a protracted period, the damage they have been able to do to the economy has been minimal. They have been more successful at attacking society -- people become less ready to go to pizzarias or cafes, or to ride buses. But even in that regard, the tactic has failed to either destroy the Israeli ability to function socially or to undermine Israel as a political entity. Indeed, it hasn't even been a success at making them unhappy:

A recent survey of 7000 Israelis showed that Israelis are among the happiest people in the world, despite terror, constant stress, the current impasse, the economic crisis, and the many frustrations of Israeli life. That's right, 83% of Israelis say they are satisfied or very satisfied with their lives. Moreover, 53% expect things to get better in the coming years, and only 14% of them expect things to worsen. According to a report in the Jerusalem Post, this makes Israelis among the happiest people in the world. For instance, Canada, with a much higher standard of living, and no sign of terror and the other stresses of Israeli life, only scores marginally better, with 85% of people satisfied or very satisfied.

Veteran Israeli writer Hillel Halkin speculates that it all comes down to human relations, and especially the strong families that are a hallmark of Jewish culture, combined with the smallness of Israel, where everyone is a bit like a family. He reports that 99% of Israelis have families, 98.5 % of them are in regular contact with them, and 94% say their relations with their families are good.

The kidnappings we've seen lately, attended by filmed beheadings or other mutilation, have a similar psychological effect to the suicide bomb. But they are also more efficient: you don't need to sacrifice a mufsidoon to carry it out. You also don't leave as much evidence behind that can lead to reprisal raids -- just a body that you can dispose of, rather than an obvious crime scene loaded with bomb parts and other trackable items.

It may be too much to hope that the suicide bomber has outlived his usefulness. It could be that the remaining suicide-squads are biding their time for something big, round about November. Or, it could be that we simply have hit a lull in the recruiting cycle. It takes time to train someone to go blow themselves to pieces, and stores of suckers may be low just now. Only time will tell if the tactic is really on its way out. Still, there is reason to wonder if the mufsidoon have had to switch their signature tactic from "matyrdom" to kidnapping -- and if so, to wonder what it means.

Instapundit.com

Airbrushed:

I see that the Kerry campaign is taking steps to pretend that they have no idea who Joe Wilson might be. Odd given the top billing that Wilson used to get, and the fact that his website used to be not only linked to, but funded by, Kerry's campaign. No longer.

But I hear Wilso is still "respected." It's just that no one with anything to lose wants to be associated with him, or his story.

Hat tip to The Sage.

The Hudson Review | Bruce Bawer

"Hating America"

There is a long piece in The Hudson Review by Bruce Bawer. He's an American who moved to Europe, where he decided that Europe was the real font of civilization:

Living in turn in the Netherlands, where kids come out of high school able to speak four languages, where gay marriage is a non-issue, and where book-buying levels are the world’s highest, and in Norway, where a staggering percentage of people read three newspapers a day and where respect for learning is reflected even in Oslo place names ("Professor Aschehoug Square"; "Professor Birkeland Road"), I was tempted at one point to write a book lamenting Americans' anti-intellectualism -- their indifference to foreign languages, ignorance of history, indifference to academic achievement, susceptibility to vulgar religion and trash TV, and so forth. On point after point, I would argue, Europe had us beat.

The next several pages are devoted to explaining how he recovered his love of his native country, and what he's come to believe about Europe. Following that, he talks about the post-9/11 world.

Over time, then, these things came into focus for me. Then came September 11. Briefly, Western European hostility toward the U.S. yielded to sincere, if shallow, solidarity ("We are all Americans"). But the enmity soon re-established itself (a fact confirmed for me daily on the websites of the many Western European newspapers I had begun reading online). With the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, it intensified. Yet the endlessly reiterated claim that George W. Bush "squandered" Western Europe's post-9/11 sympathy is nonsense. The sympathy was a blip; the anti-Americanism is chronic.

The piece goes on to look at a number of recent books written on the topic of US-European relations, and to give some thoughtful opinions on the subject. It is quite long, but I recommend it to anyone who wishes to spend a little while reading a reasoned and interesting article.

Backcountry Conservative: Sailors on the Ground in Iraq

Squids in the Sandbox:

Thanks to Backcountry Conservative for this link on our sailor brothers in country.

Sgt Hook - This We'll Defend � Castaway Conner

Castaway Conner:

Sgt Hook, the Hall waits on your word. All the best.

UPDATE: Hook reports. Good luck to wee Castaway, who we hope will be just fine.

Welcome to Castle Argghhh! The Home Of One Of Jonah's Military Guys.

Ghouls:

Sadly, this story is not surprising. My father, once a captain in the Volunteer Fire Department, used to go and sit houses during the funerals of fallen brethren, both police and firefighter. It was to avoid stories like this:

The apartment of a Marine reservist killed in Iraq was robbed this week while family members were preparing for his funeral, police said.

Cpl. John Todd, 25, was killed last month when a roadside bomb exploded. Two other Marines were also killed in the attack.

Todd's family was getting ready for his funeral on Wednesday when a thief, who apparently was aware of the funeral, broke into Todd's apartment, ransacked it and stole his computer, police said.

There's a certain kind of ghoul who looks out for the funerals of heroes, in order to feed. May justice find him.

UPDATE: It appears the police caught someone.

BLACKFIVE

B5-2:

Speaking of BlackFive, he's got a good point today:

But, I ask you, isn't Sandy Berger a former advisor to Bill Clinton? And, isn't Sandy Berger Senator Kerry's foreign policy advisor now?

I know it's just a verb-tense issue, but the media is really showing it's hand here. Those headlines should have read:

Kerry Advisor Probed

It is curious that Berger's job as of five years ago is mentioned, but not his current occupation.

Spirit of America

Spirit of America:

I got a package today from Spirit of America. You may remember the fundraiser from the spring in which Grim's Hall participated. Today the good folks sent me a T-shirt and baseball cap (the latter of which I gave to my wife, who likes baseball caps) to thank me for my efforts on their behalf. I appreciate the swag and will wear it proudly, but the folks who deserve thanks for their efforts are the full-timers at SoA. Drop by and see what they've been up to.

Yahoo! Mail - grimbeornr@yahoo.com

BlackFive Sends:

I really doubt too many of you who are deployed military read my site and not BlackFive's. Still, in case any of you Devil Dogs out there don't skim his place (and you should), I thought I'd pass along this offer he mentions:

I could use your help in getting the word out to our
deployed military.

Donovan Janus is the Principal of a company called
Exposure Manager - http://www.exposuremanager.com/ -
which is a top flight photography company that
specializes in storage and display of photos on-line.
I have no involvement or relationship with Exposure
Manager.

Donovan's team contacted me and would like to extend
an offer to any service member in Iraq or Afghanistan
(or Africa) to provide free storage for their digital
photos. So,instead of emailing large photo files, our
service members could upload them to Exposure Manager
for free. They could then have their friends and
family see their work on-line.

Donovan's email address is donovan@exposuremanager.com
. Any deployed service member can contact him and
he'll set them up with a free account at Exposure
Manager. You can reference this email if needed.

Cheers,

Matt
Blackfive

That's downright decent of Donovan. The rest of you might want to consider throwing some business his way, if you happen to have any such needs.

Forsyth County News - Main News

Ah, Georgia:

Back in the county -- that is, Forsyth County, the county where I grew up -- there's an election for sheriff. Now, everyone's heard stories about Georgia sheriffs. I just want you all to know, the stories are all true:

Forsyth County Sheriff candidate Gary Beebe was released on a $15,000 bond Wednesday after being arrested on extortion charges by the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

In a statement released by his attorney, Beebe said he believes he still has enough support in Forsyth to stay in the race for sheriff.

"Extortion" doesn't begin to cover it.

According to an audio recording, Beebe planned to solve the county's drug problem if elected by endorsing robbery of drug dealers. Beebe told the general manager he would allow a "strike force" to operate in the county and rob drug dealers -- with the general manager keeping the loot.

"You and me have talked about some things that are definitely gray -- like the strike force," said the informant, who suggested that he would have control over methamphetamine trade in Forsyth County.

Beebe said he would give the informant a heads up to remove the illegal drugs in advance of a raid by sheriff's deputies.

At one point in the conversation, the informant told Beebe, "We need to talk about what we're really gonna do."

Beebe replied, "We'll do whatever you want to do, boss."

In the most disturbing accusation by the U.S. Attorney's Office, Beebe is accused of saying he would look the other way if the general manager committed murder in the county.

The informant suggested that he would like to "bust a cap in his a**," referring to the unnamed person who would testify against him in court.

"If it happens in Forsyth County, it will go unsolved," Beebe said. The man asked Beebe to repeat his response, which he did.

Over the nearly twenty years that I lived there, I've known dozens of Deputies and, especially, firemen down in the county. They're good, hardworking, generally honest and certainly brave. I don't want you to get the idea that it's a den of thieves. Moreover, down North Georgia way the folk are pretty much independent of the law anyway -- there aren't many lawmen about, and people mostly take care of their own. Forsyth County has always been a safe and pleasant place to live.

But yeah, the stories are true.

Scots

Scottish Hunters:

Here is an interesting story, as you can tell from the lead paragraph:

You may recall the nifty exclusive we brought you earlier this year about the widow who had her husband's ashes packed with No 6 shot into cartridges and fired off on a shoot at Brucklay Estate in Aberdeenshire. The particular excitement, apart from a very good day out for friends and, indeed, his widow, was that the deceased bagged a fox, which is never a bad thing.

One begins to wonder if the stress of being a hunter in the UK, where the populace widely hates hunters, is starting to get to these poor lads. It could be that they're starting to crack.

Well, gents, we sympathize. It's not easy for anyone these days. Keep the faith.

The Daily Star Web Edition Vol. 5 Num 53

Here's an Oddity:

A foreign press article -- from Bangladesh, no less -- that begins with the phrase "Donald Rumsfeld was justifiably..."

Analyzing The 2nd Amendment

Second Amendment, First Freedom:

An analysis of the 2nd quoting scholars is running over at OutdoorsBest. It makes for interesting reading.

DefenseNews.com - China To Demonstrate Air Superiority in Taiwan War Games - 12 July, 2004 13:38

Provocative Weakness:

This AFP headline states, "China to Demonstrate Air Superiority in Taiwan War Games." The story says:

"The emphasis on air supremacy is central to any PLA offensive operations in the Taiwan Strait, but the Taiwan Air Force has traditionally held the upper hand in this area," said one analyst.

"But as the PLA Air Force has made rapid improvements in this area with significant acquisitions of Russian fighters and attendant weapons packages ... the air balance is now beginning to gradually swing in China's favor.

"This article clearly suggests that the Chinese will use the Dongshan exercise as a forum to show that it can now succeed in gaining air dominance against the Taiwanese, which is a major step in making its threats of the use of military force, including an invasion, more credible."

I know what you're thinking: "Yeah, those great Russian fighters. Why, if I were a Taiwanese pilot flying my F-16, I'd be quaking in my boots."

Well, the odds on that proposition changed just recently.

The success of the Indian air force against American fighter planes in a recent exercise suggests other countries may soon be able to threaten U.S. military dominance of the skies, a top Air Force general said Wednesday.

"We may not be as far ahead of the rest of the world as we thought we were," said Gen. Hal M. Hornburg, the chief of Air Combat Command, which oversees U.S. fighter and bomber wings.

The U.S.-India joint exercise, "Cope India," took place in February near Gwalior in central, India. It pitted some F-15C Eagle fighters from the 3rd Wing at Elmendorf Air Force Base, Alaska, in mock combat against Indian MiG, Sukhoi and Mirage fighters.

The F-15Cs are the Air Force's primary air superiority aircraft. The Indian fighters, of Russian and French design, are the type of planes U.S. fighters would most likely face in any overseas conflict.

Hornburg, speaking to reporters, called the results of the exercise "a wake-up call" in some respects, but he declined to provide details, other than to suggest the Indian air force scored several unexpected successes against the American planes.

For the last 15 years, the U.S. military has enjoyed almost total command of the air during conflicts.... Still, new tactics, better Russian fighters like the Su-30, and a new generation of surface-to-air missiles mean that U.S. dominance could be ending, said Loren Thompson, who follows military issues for the Lexington Institute, a Washington think tank.

"The United States has grown accustomed to having global air superiority, yet we haven't put much very much money in the last generation into maintaining that advantage," he said, noting the F-15 first flew in the 1970s.

"So of course the rest of the world is finally starting to catch up," he said.

This is one reason that Jiang Zemin confidently predicted this week, "Taiwan by 2020." I see no reason that he should have to wait so long.

ajc.com | Metro | Political Insider

Coat-Tails:

Bush obviously has some pretty strong ones, judging from the Senate race down Georgia way. Both "Rock the Boat" Johnny and Mac Collins have been attacking candidate Herman Cain for not being sufficiently pro-Bush.

Their attacks are, well, a little on the edge of honest. What's interesting is that Cain is more conservative than either of them. The particular attacks they've chosen are not designed to run to the right of Cain, which isn't really possible: they're trying to make him appear more to the left than he really is.

Hat tip: Southern Appeal, which is working to help Cain's chances in the election. I have to admit a certain longstanding disdain for "Rock the Boat" Johnny. I think Collins is not a bad option. First of all, you should probably disregard the suggestion by the Atlanta Journal & Constitution that he's "playing the race card" in this election. The AJC is the boy who cried wolf on questions of racism. I read the paper every weekend growing up, and many weekdays also, and they never ceased to amaze me with the places they found "racism." I notice that they've promoted Cynthia Tucker (for this purpose, "the Lady who Cried Wolf") to the editorial page editor since I left the Atlanta area, which suggests that the trend has deepened.

If we set aside the AJC's attempt to hang that albatross around his neck, Collins comes across as an unexciting but solid candidate. His views are uncontroversial, for Republicans in Georgia. He has a seat on the House Subcommittee on Intelligence, which will be a positive for his image in the race.

What he doesn't have is money, which Johnny boy has in spades. He's only just begun TV ads, which he can't afford because he's been dead last in the fundrace.

We'll see how it sorts itself out. I think that one of these three fellows is going to be Georgia's next Senator--I can't imagine that Georgia will return a Democrat this year. The AJC has endorsed Isakson, holding that he's better on "policy," which is a sure sign of a loser in the general election. I'm going to bet that Southern Appeal has the right of it, and Cain is going to be the man.

The Epoch Times | The CCP�s History of Assassinations

China's Assassins:

From The Epoch Times, a history of the People's Republic of China's use of assassins. It's sort of an interesting topic, amid rumors that the Chinese wargames off Dongshan Island contain a "guillotine squad" aimed at Taiwan's President Chen. Oh, and the recent assassinations.  At least, they seem like assassinations--why else would the PRC deny but not condemn the killing?