CNN.com - Pakistan captures high-level al Qaeda operative - Jul 29, 2004

Stories that Really Are True:

CNN reports that Pakistan has captured a high-level al Qaeda operative. There is only speculation as to exactly who it is, although Reuters names Ahmed Khalfan Ghailani based on a report from Al Arabiya.

UPDATE: In regard to the speculation we're seeing about this, here is what I wrote about this on 8 July, when the New Republic story broke:

This rumor has been bouncing around for a while now--since early May for certain. Josh Marshall first aired it in the English language press, citing "chatter" among Pakistani intelligence sources.

Evaluating intelligence, as we've discussed, is like figuring odds for poker. The odds are high that these propositions are true:

1) Someone that Marshall believes to have connections to the ISI said something like this to him, and,

2) Someone (perhaps the same someone) said the same thing to someone from TNR, and,

3) There probably really is a rumor to this effect circulating in Pakistan.

Proposition three is likely to be true because Pakistan contains the highest per-capita ratio of conspiracy theorists on the ground anywhere. A few days' reading of the Frontier Post (out of Peshawar), the Balochistan Post, and the Nation of Pakistan (all available online) will demonstrate what I mean.

The odds are a lot lower on this proposition:

4) The US told the ISI to capture someone important around 28 July.

This proposition requires the Bush administration to be Machivellian enough to plan in those terms, and also confident of the ISI's capability to believe they could capture a high value target on demand, and also confident that the ISI would carry out such orders. Opinions can differ on point one, but points two and three would require a faith in the ISI's competence and loyalty totally unjustified by past events.

Here's a piece of personal speculation on a more likely proposition:

5) A high-value target has already been captured.

In this scenario, the ISI need only be cynical enough to believe that the announcement will be made during the DNC--which is, given Pakistani politics, only reasonably cynical. They would, in this case, be gaming their media contacts to win increased influence with the TNRs and Josh Marshalls of the world. That's just what intelligence agents do--game people based on secret information, in order to manipulate them.

I'd lay money that proposition 5 is the true one, and we've got someone big that we haven't admitted to yet because we're still benefitting from interrogating them. We'll see, in the fullness of time.

Our Josh Marshall really ought to learn this part by heart: clandestine service officers game people. He's been getting it hard for the last several months, and he doesn't even see it. I'm sure these guys are really sympathetic when they leak him "secret" information. 'You have such a vivid voice,' I reckon they tell him. 'I wish I could write like you, and get the truth out about this administration. You see through all the mist. Here, this can help you...'

And Josh, who wants nothing more than to believe that he's smarter than you, prints it. I hate to be the one to tell you, son, but these people lie for a living. I'm sorry to break your heart, but you're not in the secret club. This is just what they do. What you probably really do believe is the Secret Truth is just a tale told to move your heart, whereby you are used to advance their careers, fight their little bureaucrat wars, and advance their political interests.