The People Shifted to Trump
Freedom of Speech is Back on the Menu
The NYT's Editorial Board today:
The founders of this country recognized the possibility that voters might someday elect an authoritarian leader and wrote safeguards into the Constitution, including powers granted to two other branches of government designed to be a check on a president who would bend and break laws to serve his own ends. And they enacted a set of rights — most crucially the First Amendment — for citizens to assemble, speak and protest against the words and actions of their leader.
Glad to know that the central importance of free speech has been re-discovered. It wasn't very long ago they were sounding pretty sour about the idea of speech lacking government oversight and regulation.
Whew
Probably Not, Though
Alas, Quandarius
Rmaich- A familiar story
Found this thread on Twitter analyzing the targeting patterns of Israel in Southern Lebanon, and a couple places stand out- one of them an area/town named Rmaich (or Rmeish). It resonated with me as yet another story of indomitable hill people just wanting to be left alone. Fortunately, they've been successful keeping Hezbollah out, much to their benefit.
https://x.com/Saul_Sadka/status/1853204103825961360
Gettysburg and Ukraine
Back in August, Ukraine pushed into Kursk to the great excitement of German armor commanders. We rarely discuss that war in this forum, but over at Dad29's place I suggested an analogy.
It's been difficult to make sense of this offensive, and the reporting on it is wildly inconsistent depending on the outlet and which side they support. (This is perfectly normal in a warzone: "fog of war" and all that.)
However, it did occur to me to wonder if this was the Gettysburg Campaign of the Ukraine war. Analogously, both were the first time the defending army went on the offensive and actually invaded the other's territory in the full scale; both of them were principally intended as raids, with psychological effects on the enemy populace a secondary target. Both intend to take pressure off a long-suffering defensive region (northern Virginia/Donbass).
Both are major commitments of remaining maneuver forces, which entail significant opportunity costs. By deploying these forces in the north, Ukraine is risking what might have been important reinforcements. The Confederate government had wanted Lee to reinforce Vicksburg, but he took his forces into the north instead and suffered a strategic loss instead. That allowed Grant to capture Vicksburg and sever the Confederacy, then assume command in the east and press Lee's remaining army for the rest of its days.
I don't claim to know what the facts on the ground are over there; the fog of war is too thick right now. If the historical analogy holds, though, a Ukrainian loss here could spell the beginning of the end.
This week, the Bismarck Cables suggests that, in spite of major new loans guaranteed by stolen repurposed interest payments on stolen frozen Russian wealth, Ukraine needs a major intervention because Russia is taking a lot of territory. Failing very significant escalation by Ukraine and its allies in the West, he says, Russia is likely to prevail.
I find this significant because the Bismarck Cables has always struck me as one of the more well-informed outlets writing on this topic, and also because it has always had a clear pro-Ukraine stance. Thus, this is an argument against interest rather than the cheerleading of one side or the other that makes up so much of the fog of war.
Escalations of the type he is advocating are unwise in the extreme. The war has been expensive enough that Russia is unlikely to repeat it. In my opinion we should pursue the peace that can be had. Putin after South Ossetia was likely to repeat his offense; after Crimea, even more so; but the Ukraine war has been ruinous on Russian manpower and war materiel. Letting them keep the majority-ethnic-Russian areas they have seized and held at such cost is not likely to encourage further aggression, but it could allow us to de-escalate in the Middle East especially as well as in Europe.
Ukraine got out of Kursk about what Lee got out of Pennsylvania, and ultimately expended resources that now can't be used to reinforce lines which are, similarly, starting to collapse. They are still in a happier position. Lee didn't have the option of negotiating a peace that would have allowed the Confederacy to survive in the unconquered territories because, after all, the whole point of the war was to refuse to accept the existence of the Confederacy or the legitimacy of any secession from the Union. Putin has not asked for a similar level of submission from Ukraine, and doesn't have the power to enforce one anyway.
Rather than run the hazard of escalating the war into a direct NATO-Russia force-on-force conflict that could even become a nuclear exchange, we could help offer a peace that while minimally acceptable to Russia also prevents further Ukrainian losses of men and territory. The Kursk gamble did not pay off, but collapse can still be avoided without the need for significant escalation of an already-bloody war.
Poetry and its Criticism
Central to both Kilmer’s work and the prevailing disdain of it is his deep Catholicism, to which he converted after his daughter Rose contracted infantile paralysis. Most of his efforts fairly drip with piety... Every year it falls to me as “Avatar” of Philolexian to kick off the Kilmer event by presenting a biographical sketch of the man. By now, I have my routine down pat. After outlining Kilmer’s life and enumerating his poetic sins, I ask, “But was he really bad?” Invariably the audience shouts, “Yes!” And I roar back, “You’re wrong!”Kilmer, I inform the snarky undergrads, is what George Orwell in his essay on Kipling called a “good bad poet.” After dismissing most of Kipling’s verse as “horribly vulgar,” Orwell concedes it nonetheless is “capable of giving pleasure to people who know what poetry means.” Admit it, Orwell says. Unless you’re “merely a snob and a liar,” you get at least some enjoyment out of something like “Mandalay.” That’s because it’s a good bad poem, which Orwell defines as “a graceful monument to the obvious....That’s a fair take on much of Kilmer. Yes, he was proof of Oscar Wilde’s pronouncement that “all bad poetry springs from genuine feeling.” But he could still touch certain chords with crude, shameless offerings like “The House With Nobody in It”:I never have seen a haunted house, but I hear there are such things;That they hold the talk of spirits, their mirth and sorrowings.I know this house isn’t haunted, and I wish it were, I do;For it wouldn’t be so lonely if it had a ghost or two.If you insist on rejecting this admittedly hokey notion utterly, never musing that “only God can make a tree” upon beholding a particularly soaring oak . . . well, take your pick. Are you an Orwellian snob or an Orwellian liar?
I am reminded of our longtime companion Eric Blair (how strange to need to mention him so close to the invocation of Orwell) and his position on the First World War. Namely, he holds that war killed Western Civilization -- that it was a mortal wound to its soul, to which it is still slowly succumbing.
His position is plausible. You can see in the poetry of the era before the war a great civilizational confidence. All sides rode to war on horseback, with at least some of their more famous units dressed gaily in ancestral armor or bright uniforms that recalled the Napoleonic era. Four years later, the aristocracy of all their nations was broken and destroyed; we recall Tolkien, who fought at the Somme, noting that all of the friends of his youth were dead.
Another position on Kilmer is possible: that his poetry is simply good precisely because it manages to bring all things under the eye of the sacred and divine. If a young woman were writing poetry today under the influence of some Guru, it would be thought a mark of her talents if she could find the sacred in ordinary things -- so long as she did so in the light of an Eastern religion, perhaps after her daily yoga flow session. Given that limited change of context, I can imagine such a poet enjoying real popularity among LitCrit circles, perhaps appearing on Oprah or being invited to Goop.
It may be that Kilmer seems naive to those born after the great wound of World War I. Yet he was writing after suffering his own great wound, the paralysis and slow death of his beloved daughter. It was that context that brought him to devotion and daily prayer, to the determination to see all things -- yes, even New Jersey transit -- through eyes that reflected on their sacred nature.
We have discussed here in other contexts the argument from Augustine and Avicenna and Aquinas that, indeed, all things that exist must be at least somewhat good because their existence is sustained by a God who is perfectly so. They were greater thinkers than most, drawing on arguments from ancient thinkers at least as great as themselves, Plato and Aristotle and Plotinus. The position isn't obviously wrong: far from it. It is defended by rank upon rank of reason and argument marshalled by the finest minds in human history.
The disdain and mockery strike me, at last, as a septic corruption likely arising from the great psychic wound. They consider themselves to be sophisticated and not naive, because they can entertain the bitter fruits of despair. It may be the greater art to retain instead the awe, to remain capable of seeing the sacred, the true, and the beautiful.
Elfdalian
Elfdalian is traditionally spoken in a small part of the region of Dalarna, known as Älvdalen in Swedish and Övdaln in Elfdalian. But using linguistic and archeological data, including runes, Elfdalian experts have tracked the language back to the last phase of ancient Nordic – spoken across Scandinavia between the sixth and eighth centuries...While runes had became obsolete in most of Sweden as early as the 14th century, there is evidence of runes being used in Älvdalen as late as 1909, making it the last place in the world where they were used.
A Lucky Day
Haywood Heroes
My November Guest
My sorrow, when she’s here with me,Thinks these dark days of autumn rainAre beautiful as days can be;She loves the bare, the withered tree;She walks the sodden pasture lane.Her pleasure will not let me stay.She talks and I am fain to list:She’s glad the birds are gone away,She’s glad her simple worsted greyIs silver now with clinging mist.The desolate, deserted trees,The faded earth, the heavy sky,The beauties she so truly sees,She thinks I have no eye for these,And vexes me for reason why.Not yesterday I learned to knowThe love of bare November daysBefore the coming of the snow,But it were vain to tell her so,And they are better for her praise.
Cold November Rain
It is chilly today, and grey, and rainy. November came in true to form.
The Feast of All Saints
Holding Breath
They say there are only two kinds of stories: ones that begin with a man leaving on a journey and ones that start with a stranger riding into town. But there is a third type: one about a man who goes on a journey and returns four years later with a bunch of formidable-looking strangers.In that genre, the townsfolk know the significance of these arrivals and understand the meaning of the sudden burst of activity down at the Hall, the heightened vigilance, the preparations for defense. They cast anxious glances at the calendar, reckoning the time 'til Nov. 5, when they expect things to come to a head. Instinctively they gather into groups, the loners staring out of windows, wondering....The people of the town doubted that the newly arrived strangers fully comprehended the power of the Hall and understood its monstrous strength and resilience. Could they know that it could be razed to the ground yet recover the instant they left? Did they suspect that many a man who believed himself the site’s new master would awake at night to find themselves covered with vines sprung overnight from the ground and borne whence they were never seen again? November 5 would be their doom.But that is the appeal of stories involving men who leave on journeys and return as strangers with mysterious companions. They have been somewhere and perhaps returned with knowledge that the townsfolk and maybe even people in the Hall do not know. Or else why would they have returned?
Much of what he says in the full piece explains why it's almost impossible to believe that the system will accept a defeat; all of its powers will be used in the interest of self-preservation. It is vast, it is rich, it is powerful, and it has deep roots among power structures themselves old. These include the governments of most of the major cities, where voting has been corrupt at least since Tammany Hall, and probably since voting started.
The power structure's only weakness is that part of its self-preservation entails maintaining the illusion among its supporters that it has been freely chosen. That illusion remains in effect. The Washington Post this week did a survey of supporters from both sides, and finds that it is the Democrats who would be troubled more if they lost, but also the Democrats who believe the result will be fair.
Trump supporters don't expect the election to be fair, so they won't be as surprised -- or as hurt -- if the result allows their opponents to remain in power. They'll know they've been cheated, not rejected. Because the illusion of consent has been retained among the supporters of the power structure, losing would create a psychic effect of rejection of their model by America itself.
The system could defend itself more powerfully by discarding the illusion, and like Egypt just openly stating that only certain candidates will be allowed to win. That would do away with the challenge, but also a major source of the system's power -- somewhat like destroying the Ring unmade Sauron and his challenge to the freedom of the age, but also destroyed the work of the Three and the ability of the world to sustain magical things like elves. The system seems to think of its challenger as being Sauron-like in evil, given their choices of analogies for him. Will they destroy the Ring to stop him? The loss of this illusion would protect the powerful, but they would retain only a shadow of their power, only what they could hold onto by naked force and coercion.
Can the system be defeated? Is the need to retain the illusion strong enough to limit the amount of cheating to an amount that can be overcome? We will find out in a week or so.
Do bots program her teleprompter?
Look Thy Last Upon October
Newspaper of Record
More on Communication in an Emergency
A couple of weeks ago I posted my thoughts about various means of communication in an emergency. Before that, I had posted about Thomas Witherspoon, a ham radio operator in Swannanoa, NC, whose mountain community was caught in Hurricane Helene.
Witherspoon has a new post up where he discusses his own community's plan to prepare for communication in future emergencies. He discusses some options I did not, including Meshtastic and PLMRS, and explains why his community settled on GMRS. He explains it all better than I can, so check it out over there if you're interested.
He has also continued posting on the recovery there and has one link that will take you to all of his recovery posts.
In the comments in my original post, Janet (who knows a lot more about this than I do) said in the next few years our normal cell phones will be capable of satellite communication, so all of this will be easier when that rolls out. Until then, I still think satellite communications are best if you can afford it, and GMRS is probably the best cheap radio option when the cell phones are down, unless you want to study for and take the ham test, and maybe even then depending on where you live. For comparison, the Garmin InReach is about $400 with a $15 / month subscription. Residential Starlink is $349 for the equipment and $120 / month subscription. GMRS handheld radios start at $15-20 each and require a $35 license (but do not require a test) renewable every 10 years.
If you want to look for GMRS repeaters to see what's around you, you can go to https://mygmrs.com/.
If you want to look for ham radio repeaters, check out https://repeaterbook.com/.
All of that said, the ham radio technician license is pretty easy. If you are at all interested, it's worth getting the license and trying it out. If you would like recommendations about how to study for it or have questions about it, feel free to ask in the comments.
Outlawed Tunes on Outlawed Pipes
I’m happy with my birthday present. Today I mounted Cobra pipes on it.
These pipes are illegal except for racetrack use in California, but here in the mountains of Western North Carolina the opinions of California legislators are a source of great humor.
A Brutal Ad
Sisters
When Father Richard Sutter, a former U.S. Army Airborne Ranger Infantry Officer, summoned a handful of his strong-backed St. Gabriel Catholic Church parishioners for what he called a recon mission to Swannanoa, North Carolina, a community devastated by Hurricane Helene, we did not hesitate.Once there, we were surprised to learn that the earlier-arriving boots on the ground were not boots at all, but sandals, and small ones at that. Sisters of the Missionaries of Charity were already at St. Margaret Mary Catholic Church, our designated rally point, by the time we gents had arrived in town.
I was aware of the Missionaries of Charity and their service to the poorest of the poor. But I’d never seen them in action, and certainly never expected to do so two hours from my home. The strength of the hurricane notwithstanding, theirs was a masterclass display of the most powerful force in the universe: love.
The author doesn’t intend this as a comment on gender or gender roles, but it’s interesting to see that come out in a natural way. The important thing, though, is the work of helping people.
UPDATE: A video from the NC DOT showing work they're doing to 'put the river back so we'll have a place to rebuild the road.'
Satire/serious?
[T]hose who make good decisions tend to enter a virtuous cycle: good decisions lead to better outcomes, which in turn provide more opportunities and resources to make even better decisions in the future. This compounding effect also leverages white supremacy to result in an ever widening gap between those who make consistently good choices and those who do not.The idea is that people make bad decisions because they lack the opportunities and resources to make good ones. One example might be starting a savings account early in life and benefiting from the power of compound interest.I'm afraid the argument leaves me unmoved. Granted, the more money you have in youth, the easier it would seem to be to set some of it aside as savings. Honestly, though, it's not a pattern I've ever detected in real life. Whether people live within their income appears to be remarkably untethered to whatever their income happens to be. Some people are dirt poor and manage to make ends meet and set aside money for a rainy day; my Depression-Era parents were a good example. Others are rich as Croesus and consistently overspend. It's not a question of how much you earn but of your ability to see reality clearly and control your own impulses: if you can't afford it, you can't afford it, no matter what you think you deserve to be able to afford.
World War... VII?
Voices of sanity
Levers of power
“No one is listening to [Biden] anymore, and his words have little power and less reach.” It was clear since he dropped out of the race that Biden was going to be an absentee president, but to have people who work for him admit that now “no one is listening to him” is a damning indictment of Biden when he is still the one ostensibly in charge of the executive branch for another three months.
This is what will cement Biden’s legacy as a failure. Biden spent three years ruining everything he touched: making inflation worse, botching the withdrawal from Afghanistan, watching wars break out in Ukraine and Gaza when he inherited a peaceful global situation, and running moral interference for terrorists while antisemites swarmed college campuses. There is not one aspect of Biden’s presidency that could be described as successful.Meanwhile, the candidate I hope is going to blow him out of the water in a few days is literally Hitler, according to an unimpeachable source who discovered this five years, kept working for him afterwards until he was fired, then stayed quiet until a couple of weeks before the election. So we're definitely not to conclude that we're simply being lied to 24/7 and should decline to be alarmed or even interested in the next piece of garbage that is served up breathlessly to us.On a lighter note,
When he left McDonald’s, [Trump] promised, if elected, to fix the ice cream machine and make Taco Bell pay for it.
Curses Foiled Again
In the subreddit "r/WitchesVsPatriarchy," user "feelmycocobeats" claims that witches have been mentioning that doing spells "directly against tRump are not as effective as we might hope as he seems to have some kind of protection around him."The user then begins to strategize about spell casting, saying a "freezer spell against Project 2025 would likely be useful," but even if what she was suggesting was actually based in reality, it wouldn't matter because Project 2025 isn't Trump's, it's the Heritage Foundation's plan. Trump's plan is Agenda 47.The user then suggested "uplifting" spells to help Kamala Harris and the Democrats.
This is apparently an ongoing thing. There are news articles at least from 2017 and 2020 about this.
Hanging in there
'The Remarkable Redneck Airforce of Asheville'
The relief effort after Hurricane Helene is powered by private citizens, and volunteers have discovered that it's better to ask forgiveness than permission.At a Harley-Davidson dealership in Appalachia, one expects to encounter the occasional roar of some serious horsepower.Less expected is the sight that has accompanied that sound in Swannanoa, North Carolina, for the past three weeks: helicopters, many of them privately owned and operated, launching and landing from a makeshift helipad in the backyard of the local hog shop. According to the men who organized this private relief effort in the wake of devastating floods unleashed by the remnants of Hurricane Helene, more than a million pounds of goods—food, heavy equipment to clear roads, medical gear, blankets, heaters, tents, you name it—have been flown from here to dots all over the map of western North Carolina."We're not the government, and we're here to help," says one of the two men standing by the makeshift gate—a pair of orange traffic drums—that controls access to and from the Harley-Davidson dealership's parking lot and the piles of donated items neatly organized within it. "We can do it quicker, we can do it efficiently, and we genuinely just want to help our neighbors." He identifies himself only by his first name and later asks that I don't use even that. It's an understandable request, as what he's doing is probably not, strictly speaking, totally legal.
Cave Emptori
Addendum on Eating
The Big Leak
TOP SECRET is information whose release could cause "exceptionally grave damage to the national security." No one may access this information who has not been through the very thorough background investigation, and even then you must demonstrate need to know.SI means "Special Intelligence," and is a subset of SCI, or "Sensitive Compartmentalized Information." This information is tightly controlled, so that not only do you need to have need to know, you must have been properly read into the specific program from which the information comes.TK is "Talent Keyhole," which governs our best aerial and satellite reconnaissance. It is always SCI information, and is extremely sensitive because it gives enemies a sense of exactly how good our reconnaissance technology has become.NOFORN means "not releasable to foreign nationals." This caveat is discouraged because "NOFORN" means not the British, not the Canadians, not the Australians, not New Zealand. You can mark the data to be shared with the other Anglosphere powers, our very closest allies, with the caveat "FIVE EYES," or "FVEY". We have a treaty with them that governs the controls of sensitive signals intelligence. If the Inspector General has determined this item was properly marked NOFORN, it means that the information was so sensitive that we shouldn't share it with the British or the Australians in spite of that treaty.
Whether the Biden-Harris administration possesses the political will to let the counterspies do their job is another matter. In normal times, such a high-profile investigation, touching multiple agencies, would be coordinated by the National Security Council, specifically by the NSC’s director for intelligence programs. That big job is currently held by Maher Bitar, who in his position has access to every IC secret. He is no hardliner towards Tehran. When he was a student at Georgetown University, Bitar held a leadership position with Students for Justice in Palestine, a radical group that’s an apologist for HAMAS (itself an Iranian proxy) which has coordinated anti-Israeli protests at campuses nationwide during the Gaza War.
Abortion as The Fundamental Freedom
NBC News Senior Washington Correspondent Hallie Jackson asked, “So, is a question of pragmatism then, what concessions would be on the table, religious exemptions, for example, is that something that you would consider if the Republicans control Congress?”Harris answered, “I don’t think we should be making concessions when we’re talking about a fundamental freedom to make decisions about your own body.”
Hay for My Horses
Although the pens normally used to hold animals awaiting their run in the sales arena haven’t held much livestock in the weeks following the flood, they are packed with tons upon tons of all kinds of feed. And that’s in addition to the dozens of round bales and hundreds of square bales of hay at the south side of the building.The whole thing morphed several times as it grew, and what started as an effort to provide for people who couldn’t provide for their livestock in the wake of the storm now coordinated deliveries of medication and oxygen, tents and sleeping bags, clothes and food.... In this case, because of the magnitude of the disaster and the large area affected, nonprofits such as Fleet of Angels and The Sanctuary at Red Bull Run took note of the operation at the WNC Regional Livestock center and started routing donations there.
The Redcoats are Coming
Assisted Suicide #5 Canadian Death Cause
Democracy in Action in Georgia
Old Fort
Blowing Rock
Up on the north end of the state, my favorite little mountain town of Blowing Rock is having trouble drawing visitors. October is normally one of their best months, with all the leaf traffic; this month, it's pretty bare.
I go up there when I go to the Grandfather Mountain Highland Games, as it's just a few miles from the mountain. When riding the line up to DC, I always try to stop over there. I imagine it's quite gorgeous right now. If you're up on that end of things, try to stop by. Be sure to eat at Hobbit Mellow Mushroom pizzeria.
Old Glory
- The simplified 1939 version of history had the British as the Bad Guys in the Revolution, Westward Pioneers as the Good Guys and Indians as the bad guys, the Union as the Good Guys and the Confederates as Misguided Sons and Daughters;
- The revisited ~1969 version has the British as the Bad Guys for being Settler Colonists, but the American Revolutionaries as also Bad Guys for the same reason; Native Americans as the Good Guys; the Union still as the Good Guys while fighting against slavery, but the Bad Guys while fighting against the Native Americans.
- Yet the Cherokee were on the British side of the Revolutionary War (Bad!) and then the Confederate side of the Civil War (Bad!). Nevertheless, they have to be shoehorned into the Good Guys side because they were Natives (Good!).
Life in a comedy sketch
"I got a bunch of nutty stories. SpaceX had to do this study to see if Starship would hit a shark. And I'm like... it's a big ocean. There are a lot of sharks! It’s not impossible, but it’s very unlikely. So we said, 'Fine, we’ll do the analysis. Can you give us the shark data?' They were like, 'No, we can’t give you the shark data.'
Well, then, okay, we’re in a bit of a quandary. How do we solve this shark probability issue? They said, 'Well, we could give it to our western division, but we don’t trust them.' I’m like, 'Am I in a comedy sketch here?!'
Eventually, we got the data and could run the analysis to say, 'Yeah, the sharks are going to be fine.' But they wouldn’t let us proceed with the launch until we did this crazy shark analysis.
Then we thought, 'Okay, now we’re done.' But then they said, 'What about whales?'
When you look at a picture of the Pacific, what percent of the surface area do you see as whale? If Starship did hit a whale, honestly, it’s like the whale had it coming, cause the odds are... so low. It’s like Final Destination: Whale Edition.
And then they said, 'What if the rocket goes underwater, then explodes, and the whales have hearing damage?' This is real!
US 276 & NC 215
The Haywood side is much less clear for travel. It's technically open as advertised -- I got the bike all the way across it to the junction to NC 215, and then all the way back over Pisgah Ridge at Beech Gap. However, the road is in much worse condition. Pavement is broken at many places, so the highway suddenly becomes a gravel road, especially at stream crossings where the highway itself is washed away. In at least one place, only one lane is traversable so the road becomes single-lane.

























