Clear as mud
Locust Update
Modeling human action is hard
Still More Truckin' Songs
Believe These Scientists?
Oz loses it
In the United States, we tend to think of the Aussies as rugged individualists with little tolerance for government oppression. In that sense, we probably see some similarities between our two peoples. But as one Aussie analyst recently quipped during the evening news, the problem isn’t that Australia is peopled by folks who are the descendants of criminals and prisoners. The problem is that it’s being ruled by the descendants of jailors.
Hamstringing your own IQ
In 1859, John Stuart Mill laid out the case that we need critics to make us smarter, and that we should have no confidence in our beliefs until we have exposed them to intense challenge and have considered alternative views:[T]he only way in which a human being can make some approach to knowing the whole of a subject, is by hearing what can be said about it by persons of every variety of opinion, and studying all modes in which it can be looked at by every character of mind. No wise man ever acquired his wisdom in any mode but this; nor is it in the nature of human intellect to become wise in any other manner. The steady habit of correcting and completing his own opinion by collating it with those of others, so far from causing doubt and hesitation in carrying it into practice, is the only stable foundation for a just reliance on it.* * *
By abolishing the right to question, a monomaniacal group condemns itself to holding beliefs that are never tested, verified, or improved. We might even say that monomaniacal groups are likely to be wrong on most of their factual beliefs and their diagnoses of the problems that concern them. And if they are wrong on basic facts and diagnoses, then whatever reforms they propose to an institution are more likely to backfire than to achieve the goals of the reformers.
Maintaining a healthy skepticism is not the same as nihilism. We can remain open to information and ideas even while adopting temporary, tentative conclusions that aid whatever decisions cannot rightfully be postponed. There will even be times when a potentially temporary conclusion seems so obvious that we feel entitled, not only to adopt it for our own behavior, but to impose it on others by force. On those occasions, however, our willingness to tolerate seeds of doubt in ourselves and others is heightened, not relieved. As compelling as is our duty to use discernment and judgment in reaching conclusions that guide our own behavior, we'd better be all that much more rigorous in our discernment and judgment about people to whom we delegate power, or whose crusades we enlist in, because when we act in concert, we multiply both our power and our blameworthiness if we get it wrong.
We should be fastidious in action and the use of force, but generous in entertaining new data and counterintuitive notions. What I'm seeing increasingly in my country's culture is the opposite: careless abandon in imposing wild new schemes of mandatory behavior or commandeering of resources, combined with rigid control over the discussion and dissemination of contrarian ideas and puzzling information.
Rank Betrayal by the 82nd Airborne Commander
During the last hours of the evacuation, according to troops under his command and as documented by photographs and witness statements, Donahue ordered all of the passengers aboard a C-17 transport plane to disembark so he could have a souvenir loaded onto the plane. That souvenir, or “war trophy,” was an inoperable Taliban-owned Toyota Hilux with a fully operational Russian ZU-23 anti-aircraft autocannon mounted in the bed. Once the Hilux was loaded passengers were allowed back on the plane, but, of course, there wasn’t room for all of them. According to troops on the scene, at least 50 people and perhaps as many as 100 people were left at Kabul to make room for the Hilux.It is believed that many of those left behind have been or will be killed by the Taliban, in part because of information allegedly provided to Taliban commanders by Donahue himself....One military intelligence source, who requested anonymity, told RedState:“Some of those on the last planes out were key HUMINT assets. At least 50, likely as many as 100 were left behind after being removed from the flight. But the 50 were bonafide personnel that should have been evacuated. They will likely never be heard from again. The Taliban was given literally everything that would prevent any of those people from hiding or escape and evasion, and we know that there are a lot of ‘disappearings’ going on.”
Nor was that the only failure that the RedState report reveals. The commander did not apparently obey US laws governing war trophies.
He also failed to destroy sensitive equipment left behind, which can be reverse engineered by the Chinese military now operating in Afghanistan. Learning to defeat this counter-rocket-and-mortar technology endangers every ship in the US navy, should the Chinese go to war with us.
So far no accountability has occurred for senior leaders, though; only for the one guy brave enough to put his rank on the line and demand it. He's still in jail. Several Congressmen have demanded his release, so far fruitlessly.
The Fall of Númenor
Sent by a Friend
An Impeachable Offense
Potential consequences for non-compliance with Pentagon vaccine mandate are dire, including loss of eligibility for a range of important benefits, opportunities, honors and rights. A United States Marine corporal who served in Afghanistan during Operation Freedom Sentinel and Operation Southern Vigilance is facing dishonorable discharge for refusing to take the COVID-19 shots as required by the secretary of defense.Having been diagnosed with two heart conditions, arrhythmia and right bundle branch blockage, taking an experimental drug with unknown long-term side effects isn't a medical option for him, he says, especially since the shots have already been proven to cause blood clots and heart inflammation. However, he was informed that the only medical waiver he could receive was if he was diagnosed with congenital heart failure.
In terms of correlation-not-causation, anecdotal evidence, my blood pressure has shot from 120/80 before the vax into ranges that are causing the nurse practitioner I recently sought out for a physical to demand that I start taking medication. There's no obvious other explanation for why my blood pressure would shoot up tens of points on both scales in months; but if clots are thickening my blood, I might have all kinds of medical problems resulting from it. You can't ask a guy with known heart conditions to take the thing if a previously healthy guy like me develops serious conditions at least correlated with it and with no obvious other cause.
Likewise, in the UK there is a mysterious rise in heart attacks from blocked arteries. Correlation, not proven causation; but that doesn't make people less dead.
Using the weapon of dishonorable discharges -- a species worse than 'bad conduct' or 'other than honorable' discharges -- is evil and wrong. This guy deserves an honorable discharge, even if you parted ways with him on this contentious issue. Other case may be otherwise, but 'dishonorable' is almost certainly out of order. It denies you civil rights, including the right to own or bear arms. It's another weapon our enemies in our own government are using against all of us, any of us whom they can.
The Reverend on a Saturday Night
You'll doubtless get a different one on Sunday morning.
And because this is Grim's Hall, here's the Rev doing Johnny Cash.
Old Days Gone
Much of this has to do with the fact that the ‘Old’ left was young, and consequently lacked power; whereas the ‘Modern’ left is old, and has become possessed of all the power of the institutions.
A Plague of Locusts
Unfortunately my brother-in-law, my wife's brother, will be visiting all next week. I may be called upon to play host, or possibly may be in jail, so I might not be around as much this coming week.
Report: FBI Running Dragnet Against 200,000 Conservatives
An Actual Conspiracy
So, AVI is hosting a useful set of reposts about the dangers of paranoia and conspiracy theories. He and his commenters all have good points, and these things are worth keeping in mind.
At the same time, consider the Durham investigation (link is to an Andy McCarthy piece, whom I assume we all think of as a non-conspiracy theorist but rather a reasonably fair former prosecutor). This investigation is looking into what looks increasingly like a very successful conspiracy by the Clinton faction to suborn the national security state, paint Donald Trump falsely as a Russian spy, and obtain (a) FBI investigations that destroyed the lives of several citizens associated with him, none of whom proved to be working with Russia; (b) a Special Counsel investigation, accompanied by loud media coverage of how plausible it supposedly was that these were Russian spies; (c) two impeachments; and (d) the deposing and arrest of a National Security Adviser of the United States, who happened to be a retired three-star general who'd held security clearances his whole adult life (and was therefore regularly, rigorously investigated). Flynn was almost sent to prison, requiring a Presidential pardon to keep a Federal judge who'd bought into all of this from finding a way to put him behind bars.
Indeed, the Presidential election of last year -- one faction of which self-described as a 'conspiracy' -- was largely constructed around Biden's rhetorical painting of Trump as somehow a friend of Putin. This was never plausible; in fact, Biden's decisions e.g. on Russian pipelines have benefitted Putin's strategic position far more than anything Trump ever did. Yet people believed it, and still do believe it, because a vast number of respected professionals across government and the media all told them so.
Ask the same questions about that. How many people had to know? How many people participated without having to know, because they were willing to do just do what their faction asked? How many leaks were there over the years? How much did it matter, given that the media was aligned politically with the faction running the operation and therefore willing to play up the false stories and suppress the true ones? Did anyone have to ask, say, Rachael Maddow to take the latest Trump-Russia leak super seriously and trumpet it to her audience? Did she need to be in the know, or was she functionally a part of the conspiracy who didn't have 'need to know'?
I suppose I've been in a few conspiracies myself, some of them successful. It's not as hard to believe once you've seen it done, and once you've done it.
That said, paranoia really is dangerous, and many conspiracy theories really are false. I don't mean this as a counterargument so much as a counter-example; something to consider as leavening what are also important lessons.
Angry Parents are Domestic Terrorists
Science Deniers
Last year [the Federal Government] spent $6.6 trillion. How much is that? Well, if you spent a dollar a second, you would finally spend $6.6 trillion by about 6 p.m. (as of writing) on April 30. Of the year 112,932. (It will be Wednesday, presuming the heat death of the universe has not yet occurred.)
"Super Speeder"
Manchin Talking Sense
A Definite "No" From Me
CDC implements study on "gun violence" after labeling it a "public health threat," aiming to "craft swift interventions, as they have done to contain the coronavirus pandemic and other national health emergencies." (NPR)
A Visionary
US Govt Blocks American Citizens’ Flight Home
Hot Rod Race
The Times of London: Trump Was Right, It Was Rigged
And people say he's senile
I appreciate the mental agility that allows someone to argue that reducing taxes is spending money, but spending money doesn't cost anything.
Faded Gloryville
Hope You Like Eating Bugs
Only Courageous Officer in USMC Now in Brig
RIP Commander Cody
“In about 1966 I found a Bob Wills album and marijuana," [he] told No Depression in 2018. "I’m pretty sure those guys were stoned most of the time. I started listening to Jerry Lee Lewis’ album that had 'Crazy Arms' and Buck Owens’ greatest hits. We did [Owens'] 'Tiger by the Tail' regularly. What country music afforded for us was there was no rehearsal, we listened to the record, we drank a bunch of whiskey and coke, and played. Country music is easy to do if someone knows the lyrics and the song, you can follow along relatively easily.”
Referenda on Immigration
Some Concerns About Policing
"Climate Change Started Those Wildfires"
A former forestry student-turned-shaman and yoga teacher has been charged with starting a huge California wildfire that has destroyed 41 homes - and was being investigated in connection with other fires - after claiming the blaze was triggered accidentally while she tried to boil bear urine so she could drink it.
During questioning by investigators, Souverneva... claimed that she had been thirsty whilst out hiking and found a puddle in a dry creek bed which contained bear urine.She then claims she attempted to filter the water using a tea bag but when that failed tried to start a fire to boil the water. Souverneva said that it was too wet to start a fire so she drank the water and continued walking.
Souverneva is known to be a graduate of the California Institute of Technology and former Bay Area biotech employee.She has also worked as a yoga teacher and describes herself as a shaman - a person who claims to have a direct connection with the world's good and evil spirits.
Riding with the Peshmerga
FBI Investigating Vet-Led Afghan Rescue Efforts
In one instance, agency officials showed up at the home of Scott Mann, founder of Task Force Pineapple, said Tim Parlatore, the group’s legal counsel. Such a visit is normal for the FBI, and the group cooperated fully, Parlatore said.Some of the people described the outreach as nothing out of the ordinary and part of the growing public-private partnership on evacuations. “In my mind, the FBI was trying to be helpful, not intimidating,” a person familiar with the outreach said.Others saw it differently.
Yeah, ask LTG(R) Michael Flynn how that friendly, helpful FBI visit 'just to clear things up' worked out for him.
Related: FBI Admits its Really Hard to Solve Crimes They Didn't Make Up Themselves.
The Mountain Heritage Festival
Redrum MC
Arizona Audit
The report was published today, and apparently has found issues with ballots at five times the margin of victory. I have not yet had a chance to read it, listen to the hearing, or review the findings. Nevertheless it is important to note.
The margin of victory was only about ten thousand, and normally in an audit of 2.1 million votes a difference of 50,000 wouldn't necessarily be out of line with expectations. It might change the result, but a certain amount of user error and mistakes are to be expected in a large election.
In this case, though, they knew how many extra votes they needed and had extra days to generate them. Sure enough, Wendy Rogers reports, 96% of the duplicate votes that were counted in the audit arrived after election day. The fact that the total numbers are relatively small doesn't mean that this wasn't a fraudulent outcome, because they had the opportunity to know exactly the target they needed to hit.
I'll look at it as I'm able. I hope some of you will as well.
UPDATE: I think she might have misunderstood what he said, but the spike is obvious and significant.
UPDATE: The Federalist has a piece analyzing the results.
A Lamb
He spoke very gently to her when they were first together.For example, she once asked him if he had ever seen a lamb."I saw a lamb this morning," he said. "I looked in his eyes."Then he stopped speaking, and she knew he was not happy.
...And If You Don't Like Me, Then Leave Me Alone
The sea is my lifeline the shore is my homeI've been to your cities I didn't stay longI stared at the bright lights the dark city waysI'll tell you that's not for me, no I couldn't stay....I'm a fisherman's son got fisherman's bloodJust hauling the lobster and jigging the codAnd if you don't like me then leave me aloneAnd I'll go on singing my fisherman's song.
The Barrow Downs
From the outside, they typically look just like small grassy hills, perhaps buttressed by some jagged, upright slabs that could’ve been nicked off of Stonehenge. But, each one also has a doorway literally into the hill, and some feature shelves lined with human remains, like a public mausoleum built into the earth....Angel, whose company, Sacred Stones, has built three barrows since 2015 and is exploring building another six, recalls a visit to an ancient barrow.... the Cairn Holy tomb, which dates back to the fourth millennium B.C. The identities of those interred there are long lost, but something caught the eye of Angel and his daughter: fresh flowers recently left inside. “This is thousands of years old,” says Angel. In the intervening millennia, burial practices changed countless times. And yet, he says, he makes a point of returning to this same ancient barrow on every Scottish holiday he takes. Each time, without fail, he finds fresh flowers. The identity of those interred seems less important than celebrating their time on Earth, and the ancient barrow’s permanence made that possible thousands of years later.
Who Needs Industries?
Australian Horror Show
What Just Happened Here?
Hey Oney!
This woman was tired of working at Walmart, and decided to tell the world.
After letting out a deep exhale, Mcgrath began by saying, “attention Walmart shoppers and associates, my name is Beth from electronics. I’ve been working at Walmart for almost five years and I can say that everyone here is overworked and underpaid.”
She continued to express her frustrations by calling out the store’s policies and management. “The attendant policy is b*******,” she continued. “We are treated from management and customers poorly every day. Whenever we have a problem with it we are told we are replaceable. I’m tired of the constant gaslighting. This company treats their elderly associates like s***.”
Mcgrath then got personal with her criticism of the store’s management. “To Jared, our store manager, you’re a pervert. Greta and Kathy, shame all y’all for treating your associates the way you do. I hope you don’t speak to your families the way you speak to us,” she declared. Mcgrath ended the video by exclaiming, “F*** management and f*** this job. I quit!”
In honor of that, a song from Johnny Cash.
More from Wuhan
New documents show that just 18 months before the first Covid-19 cases appeared, researchers had submitted plans to release skin-penetrating nanoparticles containing “novel chimeric spike proteins” of bat coronaviruses into cave bats in Yunnan, China.They also planned to create chimeric viruses, genetically enhanced to infect humans more easily, and requested $14million from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (Darpa) to fund the work.Papers, confirmed as genuine by a former member of the Trump administration, show they were hoping to introduce “human-specific cleavage sites” to bat coronaviruses which would make it easier for the virus to enter human cells.
So, they told us they were going to do this. DARPA has been one of the leading agencies on preparing for coronavirus and other pandemics, and in fairness they have had notable successes in preparatory work. All the same, "let's engineer new spike proteins and release them to the wild" is not the kind of plan I would expect from anyone other than a James Bond villain.
VP Harris: Biden Administration's Handling of Border Must Be Investigated
Adventures in Headline Writing
#TraitorCawthorn
Requiescant in Pace
One Quarter to a Third of Navy SEALs Reject Vaccine
Younts said the Pentagon has put its threat in writing that unvaccinated SEALs, including those who get a religious exemption or already have natural immunity, will be forbidden from deploying with their teams, all but ending their special operator careers. Some were given a deadline of this week, he said....Tim Parlatore, a lawyer who helped win the acquittal of Navy SEAL Eddie Gallagher in the alleged death of an ISIS prisoner, said he has confirmed large numbers of SEALS are declining to get the vaccine right now."It's in the hundreds. And it's not the senior leadership. It's all the shooters and it is going to have a huge impact," Parlatore said. "If they continue to with this asinine police you are going to have the complete decimation if the SEAL teams," he said.
It's a bit more than a decimation if it eliminates a quarter to a third of the force. That's on the order of two or three Roman decimations in a row.
The article talks quite a lot about people seeking a religious exemption from the vaccine, but they never bother to explain what the religious objection happens to be. I assume it has something to do with fetal tissue from cell lines drawn from abortions being used in the testing process, but it is never spelled out.
SEALs take a long time to train, and it is difficult to recruit extra people who can pass the selection course anyway, so replacements will not quickly be forthcoming.
An Amazing Display
[I]n January, the Biden administration began to pressure Mexico to maintain and use its National Guard and immigration bureaucracy to slow the flow of expected caravans and of tens of thousands of Haitians and other migrants coming in from all over the world. This was a fairly quiet diplomatic campaign, and it coincided with billions in promised U.S. aid and other benefits such as covid vaccines.
The migrant interviews comport with the arrivals of bus after bus here in Acuna, about every 15 minutes all day long every day for a week, local business owners said. At the main city station, CIS witnessed buses pull in and empty out passengers who all appeared to be migrants....A casual move such as suspending deterring strategies under cover of a holiday, or perhaps for the express purpose of transferring a humanitarian burden to the United States, indicates a diplomatic failure by the Biden administration in choosing carrots rather than Trump’s stick in dealing with Mexico. The move hints at how Mexico’s leadership regards the Biden administration’s quid pro quo arrangements of aid for help with illegal immigration from Guatemala.
This has led to astonishing visuals for a Democratic administration of Border Patrol Agents removing black Haitians using horses and whips.
How can they be so bad at everything? This all happened the same week as the French recalling their ambassador over the submarine fleet being snaked out from under them. In addition to disrupting a major alliance, D29 points out in the comments to that post that the SSN fleet won't be available until 2040 -- thirteen years after the French fleet would have been fully operational. That means that this fleet won't come into service until after China's demographic collapse; during the full time that China has the manpower to wage expansionistic wars, Team Biden has ensured we'll be on the sidelines.
It is an amazing display. I've never seen its like.
UPDATE: The Vice report notwithstanding, I've yet to see any photographs or video of the "whips" they claim are being used. There is a good chance that these are just split reins that are being mistaken for whips by journalists; but the White House spokeswoman didn't push back against the claim that they were whips when asked about it. Of course, she's probably never sat on a horse outfitted with Western tack in her life.
Just a Coincidence, Of Course
Arizona Upcoming
Down on the Border
Followup on Imperial Pints
Non-monoculture
My septic drainfield: what we do instead of a lawn. This year's very wet summer made everything especially happy, but the extra moisture from the drainfield is welcome, too.
Jasmine Cain sings Bobby McGee
Keep Hauling
I would have posted a trailer for the movie Rat Race with John Cleese and every other living comedian, but they all have too many spoilers. Pretty funny movie.
Instead, here's a trailer for Harry Brown, a very good movie that says a lot of wrong thinks about society.
Scenes From the DC Entrapment Festival
LTG(R) Kellogg: Milley Must Go
Any action on the part of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs that gives the impression that he has traveled outside his lane, however slight, should be met with swift and severe recourse. This is not political; this is about the preservation of our democracy....Unauthorized military discussions with a growing adversary about potential action sends a negative signal to an enemy. It conveys confusion, weakness, and calls into question our ability to control our military forces. It also implies that the military, in fact, calls the shots — not the commander in chief. Any undermining of the civilian control of the military is problematic; this was dangerous.
There is more if you'd like to read it.
Where'd I put my magic wand?
A Bloomberg analysis reports the startling fact that wage increases have been outpaced recently by inflation, rendering the new minimum wage an illusory benefit. Who'da thunk? The Bloomberg author bemoans the fact that "the U.S. economy has no system for making sure that wages keep up with inflation."
The fact is, though, that the U.S. economy has a fine way of making sure that wages keep up with inflation: keep increasing productivity and quit trying to control prices. The only way for the real value of wages to increase is for the real value of wage-earners' production to increase. Shutting down workplaces and printing money for stimulus checks isn't the same thing as production.
One Step Away from War... with France?
Killing Children
Fake News Today
If you didn't already know
Durham finally produced an indictment yesterday. The New York Post characterizes it accurately as fresh proof that the Clinton campaign bought and paid for the Russia hoax.
I assume Durham will now try to put pressure on criminal defendant Michael Sussman, a Perkins Coie partner, to implicate others. There will be questions of attorney-client privilege, which crumbles in the context of a criminal conspiracy.
FISA Court: The Government Lied To Us About Everything
A newly declassified ruling from a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) court in June demonstrates that the government lied about its legal basis for spying on former Trump campaign official Carter Page.The ruling states that the information produced by the FBI’s unlawful investigation into Page was illegally obtained and that it “found violations of the government’s duty of candor in all four applications.”
So, the government lied in every application, in an unlawful investigation based on illegally obtained information. Great. That's the hat trick, then.
AUKUS
[A]s a practical matter the Philippines, Formosa — as Taiwan was once known — and Korea will be hard to defend in the first onslaught of a Pacific War. They will be defended if possible but not to the end. In the event of such a loss, Australia and Japan will be to the US what Britain was in 1940: the last line.
We could approach China more aggressively, and in a plausibly deniable fashion that would force them to fight wars we could stay out of ourselves. It should be noted that we almost did one of the things suggested there:
At the same time, as we are withdrawing from Afghanistan, the President could order the transfer of large amounts of small arms and ammunition stored there to the Uighur tribes who live in Afghanistan.
Missed it by that much. Maybe the Taliban will take up the jihad for their Islamic brethren under PRC oppression.
Biden HHS Limits Monoclonal Antibodies to the South
These seven states, which the official could not immediately name but said are located along the Gulf Coast, are facing some of the U.S.’s most severe Covid-19 outbreaks and have been utilizing about 70% of the nation’s distribution of monoclonal antibodies...
Alabama’s State Health Officer Dr. Scott Harris confirmed that his was one of the health department’s contacted by the HHS, saying he was alerted “Alabama and some other states are going to be on an allocation,” as reported by the Alabama Political Reporter.Though the agency has explicitly outlined cutbacks with the group of seven states, the changes will impact the entire country as the HHS will more thoroughly review order requests and utilization rates, and work with state health departments to optimize the distribution of the treatment.The HHS official highlighted that the seven states asked to reduce their orders can ask for more if they need it, but noted the federal government “probably” wouldn’t be able to fulfill the request.
That last paragraph definitely sounds like "we're asking them" doesn't mean that the reduction is voluntary.
No surprise that a DC-based official can't name the seven Southern states on the Gulf Coast because there are only six five: Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida.
UPDATE: Heh. You'd think I'd know Georgia's southern border doesn't reach the Gulf, being cut off by the Florida panhandle; but in fairness, I grew up in the North Georgia mountains, not the swampy southern parts of the state.
Unconstitutional Orders
Two days after the January 6th riot at the United States Capitol, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley secretly took action to keep President Donald Trump from ordering the use of nuclear weapons....“No matter what you are told, you do the procedure. You do the process. And I’m part of that procedure,” Milley said, according to the book.“Got it?” asked Milley.“Yes, sir,” replied his senior staff.
No general has legitimate power to override the orders of the elected commander-in-chief. This is effectively a military coup over control of the nuclear arsenal. Everyone who said 'Yes, sir' violated their oaths and their duty. Milley himself should be arrested if this report is true.
Or if this one is.
In a pair of secret phone calls, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, assured his Chinese counterpart, Gen. Li Zuocheng of the People's Liberation Army, that the United States would not strike, according to a new book by Washington Post associate editor Bob Woodward[,]
"We have seized control of the military assets of the United States and guarantee the elected government will not be allowed to use them against you, Comrade Zuocheng."
Unfortunately the military justice system is helpless here, because Milley doesn't have a chain of command except for the President -- and the current President, to whatever degree he is actually making decisions, approves of the coup to seize power from his political opponent. The elected government will not even fight for the prerogatives of the elected government in our constitutional system. It is now purely about loyalty to political faction.














