HotAir looks at a poll on how Rs and Ds misperceive each other:
If you replace "Agnositcs or atheists" with "unaffiliated," the Rs are a little less off: the portion of Ds would be 26%.
7 comments:
Gringo
said...
The Demo perceptions of Evangelicals, Southerners and over 65 are not that widely off. They see 44% of Pubs earning $250k or more a year, but should be aware that would constitute less than 5% of the population. Which doesn't make sense when one realizes that the two parties each get about half the vote.
< 30k 53%D 41%R 30k-49k 51%D 42% R 50k-99k 46% D 50% R $100k-$199k 47% D 48% R 200k-249k 48% D 49% R > 250k 46%D 48% R
There was a fairly even split in the upper income levels between Democrat and Republican support.
In Connecticut, Hillary's percent of the vote was about 5% below that of Obamaa's 2012 support. The 2 towns that most bucked this trend, where Hillary's votes were 18% greater than Obama's vote in 2012, were New Caanan and Darien, which happen to tie for 2 in per capita income in the state. These are NY suburbs, where bigwigs in the NYC financial markets reside. Avon, a Hartford suburb, ranks 1st in per capita income, also bucked the trend with Hillary getting 7.3% more than Obama.
The 10 CT towns that had the biggest increase in Hillary versus Obama 2012 averaged $86,000 in pe capita income. The 10 Ct towns that had the biggest increase in Trump versus Romney 2012, averaged $29,000 in per capita income.
The poll is over three hears old, yet Allahpundit is adding perceptions of Trump voters to the discussion. That long run of 44%'s looks suspicious to me as well.
I think that was a good pickup on the "unaffiliateds" T99. It is a different type of overestimation by Republicans and the religious preferences of Democrats: they see their unchurchiness as more extreme than is so.
I admit the Republicans the found for this poll are pretty dumb.
I'm a little surprised that you get such a difference in results by exchanging "agnostic" for "unaffiliated." I'd have guessed those were closer categories for people to describe themselves by.
It's interesting that the Republicans don't make up a majority of any bracket you cite, but they control the majority of statehouses, both houses of Congress, and the White House. Some people aren't being entirely forthcoming about their party affiliation, I'll wager.
"That long run of 44%'s looks suspicious to me as well." The footnote that the researchers verified the 44s was interesting. It gives me the impression that the democrats in the poll didn't' really give much thought to their answers...
7 comments:
The Demo perceptions of Evangelicals, Southerners and over 65 are not that widely off. They see 44% of Pubs earning $250k or more a year, but should be aware that would constitute less than 5% of the population. Which doesn't make sense when one realizes that the two parties each get about half the vote.
It'd be interesting to see the same poll in 2018.
Eric Hines
According to the NYT 2016 Exit Polls, income levels split thusly:
< 30k 53%D 41%R
30k-49k 51%D 42% R
50k-99k 46% D 50% R
$100k-$199k 47% D 48% R
200k-249k 48% D 49% R
> 250k 46%D 48% R
There was a fairly even split in the upper income levels between Democrat and Republican support.
In Connecticut, Hillary's percent of the vote was about 5% below that of Obamaa's 2012 support. The 2 towns that most bucked this trend, where Hillary's votes were 18% greater than Obama's vote in 2012, were New Caanan and Darien, which happen to tie for 2 in per capita income in the state. These are NY suburbs, where bigwigs in the NYC financial markets reside. Avon, a Hartford suburb, ranks 1st in per capita income, also bucked the trend with Hillary getting 7.3% more than Obama.
The 10 CT towns that had the biggest increase in Hillary versus Obama 2012 averaged $86,000 in pe capita income. The 10 Ct towns that had the biggest increase in Trump versus Romney 2012, averaged $29,000 in per capita income.
The poll is over three hears old, yet Allahpundit is adding perceptions of Trump voters to the discussion. That long run of 44%'s looks suspicious to me as well.
I think that was a good pickup on the "unaffiliateds" T99. It is a different type of overestimation by Republicans and the religious preferences of Democrats: they see their unchurchiness as more extreme than is so.
I admit the Republicans the found for this poll are pretty dumb.
I'm a little surprised that you get such a difference in results by exchanging "agnostic" for "unaffiliated." I'd have guessed those were closer categories for people to describe themselves by.
Gringo:
It's interesting that the Republicans don't make up a majority of any bracket you cite, but they control the majority of statehouses, both houses of Congress, and the White House. Some people aren't being entirely forthcoming about their party affiliation, I'll wager.
"That long run of 44%'s looks suspicious to me as well."
The footnote that the researchers verified the 44s was interesting.
It gives me the impression that the democrats in the poll didn't' really give much thought to their answers...
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