Operation Airdrop

I’ve been talking about all the volunteer help and donations we got during the recent hurricane. Smoky Mountain News wrote up an article about the volunteer air supply effort for those who would like to read more. 

Crime Up Significantly

We've talked about the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting many times since this blog's inception decades ago. One of the talking points of the Biden administration has been that crime has been falling during its tenure; that seems to be out of order with the evidence of our eyes, but such evidence is anecdotal, not statistical. 

Well, it turns out the eyes have it.

When the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate fell by 2.1%. This quickly became, and remains, a Democratic Party talking point to counter Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime.

But the FBI has quietly revised those numbers, releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5%. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.

The Bureau – which has been at the center of partisan storms – made no mention of these revisions in its September 2024 press release. 

John Lott, the author here, has been on this for a while. I admit that I initially took the UCR statistics at face value, as most of the ways I was familiar with seeing them manipulated happen at the local level rather than the Federal level. Douglas warned me in the comments to the post on murder rates that major cities were choosing to omit themselves from the statistics, which is a local-level manipulation but on a grand scale. 

(Also, here is an Obama-era exception in which the Feds were changing rates by changing definitions, though that change appears to have been ideological rather than strictly manipulatory: they wanted rape understood differently from the traditional definition of 'physically forced to have sex.')

This, however, is apparently the FBI putting its own finger on the scales at the Federal level. Lott notes that this kind of major 'stealth edit' is becoming a standard practice.

The actual changes in crimes are extensive. The updated data for 2022 report that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. The question naturally arises: should the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed?...

The FBI isn’t the only government agency that has been revising its data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics massively overestimated the number of jobs created during the year that ended in March by 818,000 people.

If you're going to go that far towards destroying your credibility as a source of data, why not wait another month to publish the revisions? Obviously the desired effect was achieved -- the headlines were that crime was 'down,' and the statistical revision won't make the NYT or CBS News. Still, you could have avoided even having it here by putting off your revisions a short time. 

DOJ Thinks Firefighter Math is Racist

Now, here's a subject I do know something about: firefighter examinations in North Carolina. I've taken several of the certification exams in the firefighter series as part of my training as a volunteer; I'm also a fully certified Technical Rescuer in rope rescue, water rescue (Swiftwater and still water), and wilderness rescue, and those certifications come out of the same department (the Department of Insurance, whose elected head is ex officio State Fire Marshal as well).

[T]he lawsuits... claim that tests are racist because blacks fail them at a higher percentage than whites, and require cash awards to be paid to those blacks who failed them. Most blacks generally pass the tests, and the lawsuits do not explain how the tests can be racist against only some blacks. Blacks who passed the tests are excluded from the financial payouts.

Last week, Durham, North Carolina settled with the DOJ, saying blacks failed the tests required to become a firefighter more often, and “Employers should identify and eliminate practices that have a disparate impact based on race.” It said the Durham Fire Department must pay nearly a million dollars to people who failed the test, and hire up to 16 of them.

While the DOJ said the tests were not relevant to actually being a good firefighter, an online practice test suggests that it is directly relevant, that people could die if such firefighters were hired. One question asks if a building is 350 feet away, how many 60-foot hoses would be needed.

The tests are of uneven quality at best. The way they work is that the questions are drawn at random from a large database of test questions that were approved in advance, and the instructor has no way of knowing which questions will appear. The test is administered by a proctor, so the instructor doesn't even see the test on the day of the test. 

The intent is to foster honest testing, but the effects entail that there is no guarantee that the firefighters will have been taught the material on which they are tested. The testing database is only reviewed occasionally, so there are reasonable odds that a question might appear that is out of date. Two examples: in the helicopter rescue operations test we were asked one question about an outdated practice dating to pilots who would have been trained on Medievac in Vietnam; on another occasion, we were asked multiple technical questions about standards for Type I Harnesses, which no longer exist because that entire type was disqualified as acceptable by the NFPA standard a long time ago.

I've also seen test answers that were outright violations of logic. For example, once we received a question about how much heat a device could be exposed to before needing to be replaced. The answers were, I believe, 100 degrees, 200 degrees, 240 degrees, and 300 degrees. Logically only 300 could be correct given that only one answer was acceptable, because if you were exposed to 300 degrees you were also exposed to at least 240, 200, and 100 as well. However, the correct answer was (IIRC) 240, even though being exposed to 300 degrees would exceed that standard also.

So there's a lot of cramming and memorization, just stuffing your head with the exact technical figures that are likely to turn up on a test. Almost none of it is relevant to an emergency, as the decisions about what equipment you will have on the occasion were made long ago when the stuff was purchased -- and the purchases were made by people who had ample leisure to check the technical standards and be sure they were correct. 

I don't think the tests are racist, unless there's a racial disparity in the ability to memorize trivia. I do think they're not the most useful way to test qualifications. As for the one question they ask in the article, maybe it's helpful to know that you will need six hose sections; but probably you aren't going to have an exact measurement of the distance, and you'll just keep adding hose until you get there. I have trouble imagining an occasion when you'd park the apparatus 350 feet away from the fire you wanted to fight anyway; more likely you'll be parked a lot closer, and using the hoses to link multiple apparatus together to boost pressure (and, in rural environments without fireplugs, to increase your water supply or to enable tankers to tie in and out as they go to get more).

The whole system could usefully be rethought. The DOJ's effort, however, is not likely to improve it because it isn't aimed at the parts that don't work well.

VDH on Harris' Mythology

The noted historian raises many of the strange things we are asked to believe in spite of evidence to the contrary, or serious omissions.

My favorite of these is that she was raised in a "middle-class" household. This is meant to make her sound like an ordinary American, as almost all of America thinks of itself as "middle class" even though that isn't statistically feasible. 

Yet to be 'middle class' means less to be part of an economic category, and more to have certain values. Both of her parents were college professors, one feminist and one Marxist, each deeply critical in its way of that cultural 'middle class' that they refer to as the bourgeoisie. (In this she is very like Obama, except that both of her parents were aliens and she mostly grew up not in Hawaii but in a foreign country, Canada.) College professors earn a comfortable living; the only reality behind the claim that she was 'middle class' comes from the fact that her parents divorced, leading to straitened circumstances she would not have experienced if they had done that most 'middle class' thing and "stayed together for the children."

As we discussed some time ago, what she actually comes from is a caste -- the Brahmins -- that is so famously upper-class that its name was assumed by the historic elite of Boston. Her values are the values of the academic heights that can continue to entertain fantasies like Marxism, generation after generation, because they are so insulated from pragmatic realities. Vladimir Lenin wrote a book about why Marxism hadn't come true more than a hundred years ago, but Marxists and 'Marxian' economists and historians like her father remain gainfully employed at universities around the world. 

Oh, and she likes Glocks. Sure. 

Columbus Day

Today Columbus Day is celebrated, in the words of Joe Biden as a monument to Italian-Americans. It's still better than his replacement's version.

As we stand on the brink of another age of exploration, let us not forget to celebrate the spirit that drove those earlier explorers to seek new lands and go beyond known frontiers of knowledge. We may ourselves know children who will go on to explore farther reaches yet. They will need courage and confidence. Knowing they come from a heritage of such feats will be helpful to them.

Let's go to the stars. Ad astra per aspera.

'Not Worse than Landmines'

The least discriminate weapon in common military use is the landmine; they are nevertheless very commonly used because of their military utility. One of the AI bros in Silicon Valley thinks he's thus got a great argument for building killer robots:

'The U.S.’s adversaries “use phrases that sound really good in a sound bite: Well, can’t you agree that a robot should never be able to decide who lives and dies?” Luckey said during a talk earlier this month at Pepperdine University. “And my point to them is, where’s the moral high ground in a landmine that can’t tell the difference between a school bus full of kids and a Russian tank?”'

Unlike rifles, which are the weapon of democracy and a tool of equality, automated killing is a tool of oligarchy. The ability to manufacture and deploy large numbers of landmines that will kill anyone who comes close is an industrial ability that favors the state, not the individual. Things that seem justifiable by analogy to landmines are things wisely avoided. The world would be a better place without them.

At War Again

The US is deploying THAAD to protect Israel in its current war. I support this war, and Israel, but did Congress debate this entry into a regional war at all? Did it even become a matter of debate in the Presidential campaign? You’d think that it might, given that the Democratic administration has a base divided over the war.  

Democrats control 2/3rds of the elected branches. How much democracy is really going on here? We keep hearing that it’s important, and on the ballot. Is it really?

Full anti-Musk freakout mode

I've been re-reading with pleasure a John Ringo 2010 scifi adventure called "Live Free or Die," about a one-man engineering/entrepreneurial powerhouse's effort to combat an extraterrestrial invasion. It's an enjoyable romp, but on this reading I'm noticing a remarkable pre-figuring of the Elon Musk phenomenon.

When the action starts, hostile aliens have emerged through a galactic gate and cratered Earth's economy by demanding all its heavy metals as tribute. Our hero is a down-on-his luck ex-IT engineer who makes ends meet by multiple odd jobs. The hostile aliens being only one of the alien races in contact with Earth, the hero takes a stab at finding any non-heavy-metal terrestrial product that might interest the friendlier ETs, and stumbles by luck on a substance that has an irresistable psychic effect on them.

Abruptly the richest man in the world, the hero quickly applies his new leverage to master alien technology, resist the bad-guy ETs, and launch mankind into a new era. Naturally he incurs the wrath of government bureaucrats and the press in a way that quite sharply resembles the current anti-Musk clown show. This book being written before iPhones (to judge by the references to Blackberries as the ultimate in net-linked accessories), Ringo is unlikely to have had Musk in mind, but it's great fun to see how good his guesses were. That's one of my favorites parts of scifi, anyway, seeing which authors guessed trends early. Bonus points if the author is one of the few conservative free-market enthusiasts publishing in the field.

"Live Free or Die" follows the basic Heinlein juvenile-series formula: the protagonist is posited as Everyman, but of course is unusually bright, self-directed, trained in basic science in engineering, and Boy Scout to the core. Plunged into conflict, he rises to the occasion, vaulting through level after higher level of influence and crisis, until he saves the world. A good example is the highly entertaining "Have Space Suit--Will Travel," a book I'll never get tired of.

Happy Birthday

I was born fifty years ago today. I don’t usually make a big deal about birthdays, but half a century is worth celebrating. I started putting aside a little money the summer before last so I could afford to buy something fun for the occasion. 

Conan seems to approve.  

A Quiet Evening in October

Things have mostly calmed back down here in my neck of the woods. The weather is getting pretty, with fall colors coming in upon cool mornings and warm afternoons. I hope we'll yet have a very nice October.

Two Hurricanes and a Solar Storm

We could all use a laugh, I think, though some of us more than others, I'm sure. Here's a random collection of things that made me at least chuckle; I hope you find something amusing here.

First up, Merle Hazard, who usually sings about economics but has taken up another theme here.

Tours

By Charles de Steuben - Bataille de Poitiers en octobre 732 - Unknown source, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=363367

Douglas reminded us of the anniversary of the Battle of Lepanto on October 7. Today is the 1,292nd anniversary of the Battle of Tours, where armies from Gaul and Aquitaine led by Charles Martel defeated an Islamic army led by Abd al-Rahman al-Ghafiqi, governor of al-Andalus (AKA Spain).

There is some debate about its historical importance, but in any case it seems to be agreed that it sealed Frankish domination over western Europe. What seems to be in question is the extent to which it stopped the Islamic imperial advance into Europe. Was this incursion merely a raid in force or was it an actual invasion to help the Umayyad empire expand? At least, that's the debate as I understand it; this isn't my area.

Terror Arrests in OKC

According to the local CBS affiliate on October 9th:

The FBI has arrested an Afghan man who officials say was inspired by the Islamic State militant organization and was plotting an Election Day attack targeting large crowds in the U.S., the Justice Department said Tuesday.

Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, 27, of Oklahoma City told investigators after his arrest Monday that he had planned his attack to coincide with Election Day next month and that he and a co-conspirator expected to die as martyrs, according to charging documents.

Tawhedi, who arrived in the U.S. in September 2021, had taken steps in recent weeks to advance his attack plans, including by ordering AK-47 rifles, liquidating his family’s assets and buying one-way tickets for his wife and child to travel home to Afghanistan, officials said.

...

Tawhedi’s alleged co-conspirator was not identified by the Justice Department, which described him only as a juvenile, a fellow Afghan national and the brother of Tawhedi’s wife.

PJ Media actually covered it on the 8th. They provide a copy of the criminal complaint filed in the US District Court at the end of their report.

NC Solar Power Set Up

For those who have followed my links to the other Thomas's experiences with Hurricane Helene, he has posted his solar set up. Although his area is without power, and may be without electricity for another couple of months depending on how long it takes to rebuild the roads, he never lost power. He goes into some detail on it in his most recent post. Interestingly, he uses Tesla batteries.

I also noticed his family name is Witherspoon and I should probably have called him TW here to differentiate from myself.

Micro-preemie still micro

My friend's grandson, born at what they thought was 21 weeks but seems apparently to have been more like 23, continues to do well. He has suffered few and relatively minor challenges so far. He grew taller but until recently couldn't seem to gain weight, but he did go on real food a while back. This week they successfully got him off the ventilator. He gained a diaper size, an excitement for the family on general principles but also because the hospital called them to say the change would be an opportunity for them to hold him for the first time and would they like to come over?

Would we?

He is finally starting to gain a bit of weight. He wasn't even due to be born until December. The family is encouraged to take turns speaking and reading to him. The NICU is great.

Maybe the race isn't that close

Conrad Black in the New York Sun:

If allowance is made for the fact that the Democrats carry California and New York by almost 5 million more votes than the Republicans comfortably carry Texas, Florida, and Tennessee, Trump is leading by about 8 million votes in the other 45 states.

Of course, it's not about the popular vote, it's the vote in the likely swing states.

Leif Erikson Day

Today marks the holiday celebrating Nordic heritage in America; also, jointly with Columbus Day, celebrating the spirit of exploration.

Many believe that roughly a millennium ago, Leif Erikson — a Norse explorer — and his crew were the first Europeans to reach the shores of North America.  His spirit of adventure, curiosity, and resilience would inspire generations of Danes, Finns, Icelanders, Norwegians, and Swedes to sail across an ocean and begin new lives in America.  These immigrants built bustling homes and enriched their communities, supporting and realizing the American Dream.  They fought for our freedoms in the military; built new churches, businesses, and schools; and spearheaded social movements.  Today, Nordic communities continue to enrich the fabric of the Nation. 

Congress needs to step up

From American's Newspaper of Record.

I kid, really. I'm not yet convinced of the stories about FEMA blocking humanitarian aid. Not that I think they'd hesitate if someone pointed out that a blank had been left in an 80-page application: they might not do it to exact revenge on a lot of mouth-breathing alt-right hillbillies, but they'd certainly feel justified in some kind of safety-first protocol stretched insanely out of proportion to the emergency circumstances. FEMA is very comfortable dealing with other huge, sclerotic bureaucracies. They seem to lack the faintest clue what first and second responders need to do, and everyone is probably lucky if they hog some of the last few decent short-term rental spaces available and sit by their phones awaiting orders. A few years from now, some of them may be dispensing some helpful aid to strapped local governments.

UPDATE: After reading Thomas Doubting's linked blog account of another NC mountain community's experience, I'm thinking I judged all of FEMA too harshly. They must have some people who aren't pointy-headed bureaucrats. Not that any of them came to my county, as far as I know. The one FEMA bigwig who addressed my Commissioners Court made me angrier than I've often been in my life, and spurred me to run for office.

Testing newfound ability to add images using Chrome instead of Brave, here is a dog we rescued last year, on her way home from being spayed. She was successfully treated for heartworms and adopted by a couple with a dog so similar they swear they are brother and sister from the same litter reunited:

Another Benghazi narrowly averted?

I don't like to jump to conclusions about single-source stories, but this one seems like a pretty sober, detailed account.

Forty U.S. Army soldiers who were in Israel as the advance team for what they thought was a routine training exercise last October 7 suddenly found themselves in the middle of a war, unarmed, and being forced to beg reluctant Pentagon officials to send an Air Force plane to extract them.

Approximately a quarter of the soldiers were just miles from Gaza in off-base housing near the IDF’s Tze’elim base when the attack began. A group of local Israelis – IDF reservists, police officers, and ordinary citizens – got them to the base, which Hamas terrorists were quickly heading toward. With his men in mortal danger, the U.S. team leader requested permission to open the arms locker so they could retrieve their firearms but was denied at the US Central Command level and “denied and/or ignored” at a level above that, according to a military intelligence analyst with knowledge of the mission and exfiltration.

Glitch?

Apparently I can post here, but I can't comment. All I get is "failed to publish, try again later."