Dawn over Cimmeria





Several shots from the same location at dawn, showing how the Smoky Mountains raise a fog with the first solar energy. Before dawn the stars were clear. 

The National Guard is supposed to be sending a squad up here today. We saw the first law enforcement officers yesterday, five days in to the business. The school system turned its fuel over to emergency services, so we are still running patrols to vulnerable families. Today we are planning a full sweep of the district to advise everyone of what aid is available and how to access it, as power, cellular towers, phones and internet remain down. 

UPDATE: The National Guard did not in fact appear; apparently a paperwork error at the State Capitol sent them somewhere else. No word on if that might get straightened out. 

One Way to Help

 When Kentucky was flooded a while back, the guys at Stocking Mill Coffee put together a 'strike team' of relief, and headed up and helped people out- no big NGO, no overhead, just dudes helping people who needed it.  They're at it again, and I trust them to put my dollars to good use up there.  The CEO is a vet and a "get it done" kind of guy, so the right man for the job.  They are targeting the area between Spartanburg and Ashville, and that seems like a good target zone for the operation.  I offer this as I know many here share my distrust of the big NGOs, and as I mentioned, I trust these guys.  Link to their donation site.

Second Update

Operations for the first day focused almost exclusively on clearing local roads enough for emergency access. This does not mean that the roads are clear: frequently just enough of a fallen treetop was cleared to allow a rescue vehicle to pass through one lane. Some twisty and forested roads were like mouse mazes, swerving from this lane to that to take the tunnel cut through the next tree. Many roads remained completely impenetrable after the first day. 

The second day we continued access operations on the remaining roads, and began health and welfare checks in earnest. Up here the populations are mountain people and vacation/second-home people. 

Most of the mountain people had cleared their own roads, or hadn’t bothered because they didn’t need a road. Mountain families have extensive home-canned food and usually gravity-fed spring water. They own chainsaws; a surprising number of them own excavators, and thus an even larger number have kin or neighbors who do. I met one lady without a spring who cans water, ensuring a secure supply of clean water even if the creek fouls. These people have only two problems: some have family members with mental health issues, and some have extreme elderly who need oxygen concentrators or other powered medical equipment. They need gasoline for the saws and equipment, eventually, but the ones who have to keep a generator going are coming to a very hard decision. They will, however, be fine: the worst they face is grief for the few they may lose. We are focusing our efforts on trying to spare them that grief. 

The second-home people are happy and prosperous, and depend on stable social organizations like stores that take credit cards. They don’t realize how bad things may get if a way to get fuel in here doesn’t arise soon; more on that later. Some of them cleared their own roads by the happy expedient of having hired a local family as caretaker or groundskeeper of their property, and in this way another large chunk of work got done by someone other than the rescue service. 

Everyone we checked on was fine, including the dubious tent-campers-in-a-hurricane “where the sheriff got shot.” (The sheriff got shot nigh a hundred years ago, but everyone here knows exactly where that location in the backcountry is better than they would understand an address.)

Day three, today, we switched to actual clearing operations on the roads. Most of them are clear, all of them where we are aware of anyone living. We also continued health and welfare checks until 1700 local time. 

Starting at that time and until further notice, we are restricted to emergency operations only. “The present emergency,” which really is an emergency and a catastrophe, doesn’t count. 

We are nearly out of gasoline, you see. Even the emergency services. Diesel we’ve got for the big trucks, but gasoline is now almost gone. When it’s gone most county vehicles stop, including ambulances and police cars. Those generators powering the oxygen concentrators stop too. 

I hope the people working on that part of the problem have had as productive a last three days as we have. A lot hangs on whether or not more gasoline appears. If it doesn’t, the mountain folk will grieve, and a lot of other folk will learn about how hard life can get. 

We’ve done what we can where we are. If they have too, maybe it’ll still work out. 

There’s a Chinook. That’ll be the 30th Armored Brigade of the National Guard. I was with them in Iraq for a while in 2009. It’s funny how much this has been like that: rise at first light, shave by candlelight, gather for a mission briefing followed by a dawn patrol from the base to carry out your several missions. I was enjoying it, surprisingly so. It was sort of like the good-parts version of war. I hope we get some gasoline, so we don’t get the bad parts. 

Hurricane Update

This is the first time I have been able to communicate since the hurricane hit Thursday night. The situation here is catastrophic. The hurricane dropped its load of water here in the mountains of North Carolina. All cellular towers are down. All power lines are down. I-40 is closed and so is I-26, eliminating the major ground lines of communication with eastern N, SC, and TN. Locally our county seat has no power or phones, although I have heard that 911 is back online for anyone who has a phone that can call them. No cellphones work, but some landlines do.

Our rescue operations are 24 hours a day currently. I can report steady progress; yesterday at dawn it took me five hours just to cut my way out with a chainsaw to reach the highway and the rally point. Today we have saw crews and a three man team from DOT with earth moving equipment to clear landslides. We have established a temporary shelter for the elderly until they can be moved to proper facilities, but our hospitals are overwhelmed-- one of them is closed, but yesterday all of them were.

This is going to take a while. Power restoration is estimated between 5 days and weeks, depending on who you consult. I have Internet while standing next to this one fire truck with a mobile Starlink system. Many people have generators, but fuel is an issue: with the interstates down supplies will dwindle, and the economy is cash only because credit card systems can't reach their banks. We are especially concerned about elderly on oxygen, supplies of which will also dwindle.

I will be in touch as I can be, but expect that to be limited especially at first. I have not heard anything about when cell towers will be back online. Once power is restored, I'll have Starlink from home. I haven't been at home much, though.

The community is pulling together in the best traditions of America. The support systems are heavily stressed, though.

"Let the hoarding begin"

The EU enacted a law intended to prevent members from buying all kinds of products without first requiring overseas suppliers to prove they weren't deforesting. It's not working out quite as hoped.

Well, I'm sure EU residents will be happy to do without. When I hear the EU anthem now I always fill in the lyrics in my head as "Schadenfreude."

Flying to Peril


I’m sitting at an airport bar in Dallas, waiting for a flight that will carry me to the outer bands of this hurricane. My fire/rescue district is dead center of the bad zone on this map. 

It’s been a pleasant two weeks, which looks likely to be followed by some interesting days. 

UPDATE: Through already-heavy rains, we made it home. We’re on station for what follows. 

UPDATE: We've had one land slip with downed trees and power lines so far; the rain has continued to be heavy, meaning that the earth is saturated with water and the heavy rains/winds to come will be more dangerous. The National Weather Service is being comforting.
This will be one of the most significant weather events to happen in the western portions of the area in the modern era. Record flooding is forecasted and has been compared to the floods of 1916 in the Asheville area. The impacts from this event are expected to be greater than Tropical Storm Fred from August 2021, the mountains in 2004 from Frances and Ivan, and in Upstate South Carolina the Saluda River Basin flooding from 1949. 
We plead with everyone that you take every single weather warning very seriously through the entirety of this event as impacts will be life-threatening and make sure to have multiple ways to receive the alerts. The protection of life and property is the overall mission of the National Weather Service, and we pledge to stand by the folks of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. We cannot stress the significance of this event enough. Heed all evacuation orders from your local Emergency Managers and go to a storm shelter if you do not feel safe at your current location.  
Hurricane Helene will make landfall later this evening near the Big Bend of Florida. Significant to catastrophic, life-threatening flooding will occur along and near the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Historic flooding will be possible in this area as an additional 9-14" of rainfall will be in store. Many landslides will occur as a result, with a few large and severely damaging slope failures or debris flows are likely.  
Possible hurricane-force gusts in the North Carolina mountains, northeast Georgia, and the western portion of Upstate South Carolina. 60-70 mph wind gusts possible elsewhere. The combination of strong winds and super saturated soils will lead to widespread trees down and numerous power outages. 

The day has been spent in preparation, and I suppose we are as ready as we can be. Any of you who happen to be local to this region, batten down the hatches. It should be over by tomorrow evening, and then we'll start figuring out how hard it will be to put things right.

American Wildlife Museum



One of the best things about Jackson Hole is the national wildlife art museum. I highly recommend it if you’re ever out there. 

Note to Frank in IF

Thank you again for the kind invitation. It turns out that my mother, my sister, and my wife fully planned my weekend for me, and I had no leeway for a trip. 

My mother volunteered me to tie a knot board for the local community, the sort of thing that rescuers and Boy Scouts use to learn knots. Here it is in progress. 


My sister planned a lengthy hike near Teton Canyon, as well as a dinner I was to cook for friends and family. 



And my wife planned yesterday’s expedition to Dubois. 

So my life was quite completely ordered by the women, which I am told is the best thing for men. I am sorry that I didn’t have time to get out your way. Thank you for the asking. 

But it's OUR immunity

This is the kind of immunity people should be worried about.

Dubois Rhymes with Cowboys

Today we visited the extremely scenic town of Dubois, Wyoming. It is located on the western edge of Wyoming’s badlands, so that if you ascend the ridge by the town cemetery you will be able to look West upon a mighty gap with ascending trees, or East upon a barren land of colored and banded hills. Look either way, or any way, and you will face stern and glorious beauty. 

Mrs. Grim photographs the scenery.




The town itself is less glorious. It does have an Old West charm, a general store that plausibly claims Butch Cassidy as a former customer, at least one good restaurant called the Cowboy Cafe (est. 1937), and two bars

Schrödinger's Rental Car

I had hoped to post some nice photos for you today, as a complement to Grim's travel pics. However, apparently reserving a rental car in advance no longer guarantees that there will be a real car waiting for you at the appointed time and place. Some of you, maybe all, probably knew that but I discovered it yesterday. I had reserved a car two days in advance and, in the past, I'd always been able to rely on my reservation.

(Below the fold you may find the rest of this rather pedestrian story explaining why you may or may not ever get a rental car again, along with comments on Schrödinger's thought experiment and even a dramatic suggestion.)

Mesa Falls


Regular commenter Thos. and I met for lunch the last time I was out this way, and he suggested that I go to Mesa Falls. I didn’t have time last year, but this trip we got out there. It’s a beautiful volcanic area with a healthy river, Henry’s Fork, that is heavily aerated by the falls. It is therefore rich with life, including fish and the bears that prey on them (the land below is called “Bear Gulch”).


It’s got an upper and lower waterfall, the upper one being less tall but more beautiful. 


Thank you for the recommendation, Thos.

Jews awake

In my old firm, adding my colleagues' identity as lawyers to their predominantly being Jews and New Yorkers meant a triple whammy for their political alignment. They were intensely capitalist but almost uniformly Democrats.

For years I've wondered if the increasingly obvious anti-Semitism on the left would push them into the arms of the GOP or even--gasp--Trump. After October 7, 2023, I watched even more closely. It seems the moment may have arrived at last.

1 Cor. 13:13

A friend's grandson was just born perilously early, at only 20-21 weeks, as they believed. When early labor commenced a couple of weeks ago, they tried to suspend it ith drugs and by the almost desperate tactic of sewing the cervix shut. In this way they managed to buy about six more days before the mother began hemorrhaging and had to be delivered, but in the meantime they got some steroids into the baby and lots of magnesium into the mother. The family then prepared for the worst, because there was little reason to believe the baby could survive birth.

Whether from pure mercy and good fortune, or the good effects of the steroids and magnesium, or because the gestational age had been misestimated and the baby was really more like 23-24 weeks along, the little guy began breathing, had an APGAR of 6, and has been doing surprisingly well for over a week now. He is taking a little milk and has suffered only a couple of concerning episodes which so far seem to have responded well to treatment. He's tiny, closer to 1-1/2 lbs. than 2, but hanging in there.

At one of the pre-birth crises, when both mother and child were in danger and rapid decisions had to be made in the operating room, the mother called out for quiet. She said she had to do something to calm down and be able to make decisions. The anesthesiologist backed her up and called for quiet in the room. Mom said she wasn't sure whether she needed to pray or to sing, so she began singing "Jesus Loves Me." Immediately the anesthesiologist joined in, and then so did the rest of the staff.

Perhaps many medical teams would have been flummoxed and exasperated by this non-medical interlude. It took kindness, faith, and courage for them all to recognize the mother's need and remind themselves to ask God for help in a moment of such abject grief and fear.

Early in the ordeal, the medical staff leaned toward terminating the pregnancy, believing that the fetus was hopeless and the mother was in unreasonable danger. The parents firmly told them to pull out all the stops to save their son. They had already lost their first pregnancy at an earlier stage, only nine months ago. They are strong young people.

The Big Holes

This year I stuck to the ridges instead of the lush canyons, and consequently saw little wildlife but vast landscapes. 

Elementary Arithmetic

Mom is chaperoning a trip to the Grand Tetons National Park for my niece’s school tomorrow. As a reward, the children of families who chaperone got to choose the groups. 

So tonight mom was complaining to another mom that Clio had made her life difficult by choosing a group of five with TWO boys in it, boys being unruly compared to little girls. 

“I did not!” my niece exclaimed. 

“You didn’t?”

“No,” said my niece. “I chose FOUR boys.”

The Yellowstone, Day II

We spent the morning in the northern section of the park, crossing Dunraven Pass a little after noon. 

The Yellowstone, Day I

Lower Falls of the Grand Canyon of the Yellowstone, from Artist’s Point.

Leaving Eden

I've just thoroughly enjoyed a 2018 book by an author new to me, "Against the Grain" by James C. Scott. The author challenges the assumption that the great civilizations that sprang up after the dawn of agriculture improved things for anyone. Without romanticizing the hunter-gatherer life, he reports solid evidence bearing on the severe disadvantages of sedentary agriculture, and explores the considerable changes (including genetic) it wrought on the human race. He argues that sedentary agriculture succeeded for millenia before agrarian states arose. He draws a parallel between tax-collecting states and the surrounding barbarian civilizations engaged in what must be recognized as a protection racket. Both treated the farmers essentially as domesticated livestock and extracted as much as possible of the excess food they produce via the momentous replacement of hunter-gathering with sedentary cultivation.

Scott's prose is a pleasure. There is no tiresome hectoring against colleagues who might dispute his revisionism. He organizes his thinking clearly and makes a sustained argument with solid evidence and logic--something that shouldn't be rare in academic literature but sadly is. I'm off to read some of his other books, including one on anarchy, a subject he obviously has grappled hard with. It's no easy thing to construct a society that restrains people from seizing the results of other people's labor by force, rather than requiring us all to proceed by some form of consent.

Tetonia


Two of the three businesses are bars.