Events are moving quickly in Syria after Hezbollah was crushed. The Turkish terrorists have taken Hama, the Iraqi parliament has authorized troops to enter Syria, and Russia has pulled its fleet from Tartus. Because Turkey has closed the Bosporus to them, the Russians will have to sail to northwest Russia to reach a friendly port. What a mess. I blame Israel ;-).
Syria
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17 comments:
After Assad is gone, will Syria still serve as a conduit for Iranian armaments to Hezbollah?
Not as readily or easily.
Assad’s little war was orders of magnitude more destructive than Israel’s, but nobody called his a “genocide.” Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.
My first thought as we started seeing the signs that Assad may be done was what are the odds things get better and not worse? I'm thinking it's a coin flip, maybe worse odds that things get any better. Most of the rebel groups have plenty of downside, as we were noting in pointing out the spider's web of 'alliances' there.
Well, I certainly didn't have "Turkey has closed the Bosporus to the Russians" on my bingo card! ;-)
nmewn
I've read that the Christians will be worse off once Assad is gone. This is not a reason to want him to hang on but is this true?
Sounds right to me. I can't believe there are still Christians in Syria who've managed to hang on this long.
Potentially yes. In areas taken over by the Brotherhood-linked militia, especially elements with ties to still more radical Islamist elements, there may be renewed ethnic cleansing of Christians and any remaining Jews.
But maybe not; at least temporarily they’re signaling that they want peace with Israel, at least long enough to purge Iranian-aligned elements and consolidate. They may well not elect to bother Jews for that reason, and possibly not Christian groups either.
Also, the core Brotherhood accepts dhimmi relationships as doctrinally valid. If they more than the most-radical predominate, they may accept and protect Christians in return for submission to the religious tax. It’s not a great outcome, but neither had been the ongoing civil war.
In the Eastern Orthodox Church, the Antiochian Orthodox Church is headquartered in Damascus, as is the Oriental Orthodox Syriac Orthodox Church.
It's weird, but Saddam Hussein was better for Iraqi Christians than those who succeeded him, even though he was a monster.
Thomas, the Baathists (both Saddam in Iraq and the Assads in Syria) found the Christians useful and therefore protected them. This was a double edged sword for the Christians, as it did protect them, but made them even more a target to the Islamists if they ever got power. Rock and a hard place.
One thing I think people forget, and I've been reminded by studying Twentieth century Chinese history a little lately, is that an awful lot of alliances in human history were based on survival far more than preference ideologically or even religiously. The rate at which alliances changed in China in the early to mid Twentieth century is just staggering, and in all directions. It was almost all about convenience in the moment and survival.
I've heard that, but I've never understood how they were useful. Do you know?
Thanks for the info, guys. I agree, Tex, it's amazing Christians are still hanging on there but I suppose it's just hard to leave home. I wonder where they could go.
Looks like opposition fighters are on the outskirts of Damascus.
https://apnews.com/article/syria-assad-sweida-daraa-homs-hts-qatar-7f65823bbf0a7bd331109e8dff419430
Couldn’t happen to a nicer government.
It's tough competition to be more appalling that the Assad family, but this crew may be up to the challenge.
Well, looks like Assad's security people forgot to take out the trash as they left.
https://pjmedia.com/charlie-martin/2024/12/08/interesting-times-assads-gestapo-didnt-clean-up-before-they-fled-n4934947
I don't have much expertise here, aside from some syrian acquaintances and what I read, but basically that it's informal and just that Assad wasn't Islamist, so there's a natural benefit to 'supporting' him over other elements. They also seemed more willing to work in the government and military to some extent (my Muslim Syrian acquaintances dodged service).
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