I have no idea of how typical these two videos of the Ukrainian and Russian armies winter diggings-in are, but to the extent they are at least a little representative (I suspect they're actually extremes but that they do indicate essential differences), they indicate why a Ukrainian winter offensive would be highly successful, whereas a Russian offensive would...not be.
A Ukrainian trench: https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1593929751693258753?s=20&t=7kAnEz4gmLqqWZ8iqzIBMg
From a Russian surface camp: https://twitter.com/BorlandTrubo/status/1593931319427440641
The Russian text claims that, at the time the video was taken, it was -25 outside. Omsk is about 65 mi from Kazakhstan, so it's not an entirely fair comparison, but if this is typical of the preparation the Russian soldiers are getting enroute to the Ukrainian cauldron, I don't see how they can be effective.
Hence the barbaric assault on the Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, in an attempt to deny Ukrainians the fuel, power, and food necessary for winter survival.
Eric Hines
11 comments:
Minus 25?
Positive numbers with regard to temperatures and the scales thereof can be deceptive. +10 F is pretty darned cold but +10 C is mildly chilly.
Negative numbers start to trend toward a perception of parity.
So, just for clarity, -25 C is -13 F. BOTH are what we in Texas would call DAMNED COLD.
Yeah, surely Celsius. The degrees are almost twice as big as Fahrenheit degrees, but they’re padded on the low end by the 32 degree difference.
Ukraine has conducted excellent information operations, so I wouldn’t put too much faith in video they put out on purpose. There were only three days of air fighter to fighter contact before the ground based air defense systems were positioned and effective on both sides, but UKR saved up all its video and released it slowly to give the impression that they were staging a lengthy and hard fought defense in the air. The intended audience here is surely Russian intelligence.
The Ukrainian Nazis have spent 8 years shelling and murdering ethnic Russians in the Donbas, and you didn't notice?
By the way, those are more likely Polish or Romanian troops, Ukraine is pretty bled out by now.
Hard to believe anything that either side is releasing. That said, it's pretty obvious the Russians have lost the ability to conduct any sort of offensive, and it seems to me that they are trying to drag it out in hopes of something good for them happening. I think we will have to see how cold the winter is in Europe this year. That could could cause some events.
They’re managing advances in the center, well north of the Kherson area where they are digging in. Ward Carol had an interview with a British air expert who thinks UKR can’t continue to hold off Russian air superiority past next spring without new fighters and tech, which means the war could turn hard next year. If they’d had air superiority this would have been a different war.
Others, like Gen. MacGregor, have clearly stated Russian war praxis: if Russia doesn't need the territory, let it go. Thus, Kherson, which was costing the Russians a lot of manpower just for supply purposes; it was a beachhead across a river.
So they retreated in a very organized and well-disciplined way, blowing up the bridge after their exit.
You seem to KNOW that Russia has no offensive capacity, Eric. How did you come across that knowledge?
Dad29, it's my assessment, also, based on the Russian army's performance so far, including last winter. Carol's interviewee said that videos of the Ukrainian shoot-downs over the first three days were broadcast over the next several weeks, and he's likely correct. The fact remains, though, that the shootdowns occurred, and the Russians still are unable to gain either air superiority or even to conduct air support of their ground forces. And since the start of the war, either the Russian air force has conducted no BAI, or it's incapable of it. Their ground forces still still are road and rail bound, wholly incapable of moving cross country over any distance at all.
Russian precision weapons--air or ground--seem increasingly in short supply, as indicated by the increasingly poor shooting at their targets. That's another reason for their shifting to more area-like civilian targets, and their increasing dependence on foreign-originated ammunition.
Ward's interviewee also is likely correct that Ukrainian air defense capability will suffer from system attrition and ammunition consumption unless the West chooses to resupply. That risk also exists for Ukrainian ground weapons.
Eric Hines
Russia is substituting Iranian drones for precision-kill weapons. They're not as powerful, but they are a sort-of substitute. (This in a sense is fair play; we're providing UKR with loitering munitions like the Switchblade, which are approximately the same thing only better.)
Russia is, however, advancing in the center. I suspect this is mostly to force UKR to redeploy forces from the Kherson region -- which I definitely do not interpret as a sideshow, Dad, as I think closing the Black Sea to UKR was a major strategic goal of the whole war -- so that Russian forces in the trenches will be more likely to hold through the winter.
I strongly suspect that the intent of the Russian assault on energy in Ukraine is to make the winter as punishing as possible. Officially at the current moment the Ukrainians are rejecting diplomacy and the US is following their lead after having suggested it; but in fact, I think this is probably a good-cop/bad-cop play. Russia is in a much weaker position now than it will be in the late winter or early spring, after a ruinous winter in Ukraine and a hard one in Europe has made everyone more tractable. Russia would have to give up a lot more at the table now than they probably will have to next year, especially if UKR air defense is no longer able to hold off their mostly-intact air forces.
Let me clarify: Kherson was not a 'sideshow' for the Russkies; instead, it served as a deadweight. So the Russkies jettisoned the position for the time being, relieving a lot of stress on their supply-lines and allowing the current progress in the center, as you note.
We agree that Russia still must retain its warm-water port and desires Eastern UKR because of the Russophiles living there and because of the history of that area pre-Krushchev.
The difference? MacGregor holds that the UKR armed forces have taken serious casualties in the conflict and since the US is not sending its best equipment--nor as much as UKR would like--the UKR situation will continue to deteriorate.
The hits on the UKR power-stations and transformers will make winter terrible for civilians, but more important is that those power-stations also provided power for UKR weapons dumps and transport of troops and weapons. IOW, they were military targets, too. By the way, the only source of replacement 330KV transformers is...............Russia. And that's the sort of equipment which is built to order, not to inventory.
We'll see what happens.
What’s the source for the claim that only Russia can supply the transformers? I haven’t heard that, and I know of German and Japanese 330 kv transformers. On the other hand, I have also seen a case — COP Dragon in Iraq — where we had to bring in Russian electrical engineers to finish a project they’d begun for Saddam. We couldn’t do it for some reason. These UKR plants are similarly legacy Russian/Soviet, so it’s plausible. I’d like to know more about that.
Found that at this place: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/11/ukraine-switching-the-lights-off.html
However, that appears to be inaccurate (unless some technical specs are not clearly mentioned) given what THIS site says:
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/ehv-uhv-above-330kv-power-transformers-market-2022-trends-industry-size-share-emerging-trends-top-leading-players-and-forecast-2028-2022-10-11
Quote: The global major manufacturers of EHV and UHV (Above 330KV) Power Transformers include ABB, TBEA, SIEMENS, GE, JSHP Transformer, Schneider, Sanbian Sci-Tech, SGB-SMIT and TOSHIBA, etc.
So...........it's a tossup.
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