The war entered a new phase last week, between the retreat in the south, the advance in the center covered by a wave of missile strikes, and the big diplomatic push that is being made to end the war. The later is a good cop - bad cop approach, I think, with Ukraine in the role of bad cop. They can't continue the war without external support, however, both in funding and weapons; so the West can pretend that the bad cop holds the reins, but in the end Russia knows that the 'good cop' can cut them a deal.
Railroad Nation
Partly because the Russians were never able to establish air superiority, Ukraine's on-time railroads remain the backbone of the nation and its war effort. Trains running on-time would normally make easy targets for bombing runs, but Russia's military strategy did not prize air superiority the way the American way of war has done. As a result, the Russians are unable to cut these flourishing supply lines; for the same reason, they are vulnerable to the artillery we have been supplying to their foes.
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This war is far from over, and Russia could still win it all. In fact, the odds favor that outcome.
However, as the Vietnamese and Afghans proved, a minor power can defeat a superpower if they refuse to quit, and if they get generous outside support.
If Europe's economy is wrecked this winter, it may be that the EU sues for peace.
I agree that the winter is likely Russia's strongest ally here; whether or not they can 'win it all,' or indeed what exactly they intend to win, is less clear. I had thought they hoped to close the Black Sea to Ukraine, but the withdrawal from Kherson as well as the freedom of Odessa puts that out of range for now (absent the use of nuclear weapons, which they continue to state that they disavow, and which even China has praised them for disavowing).
Kyiv is half out of power as of yesterday due to Russian strikes on its energy infrastructure, and last week the mayor of Kyiv was warning that the whole city might need to be abandoned this winter if it can't maintain power. Ukraine has plenty of food for the winter, though, especially if the grain corridor remains closed. There are rumors that Russia will stage a new invasion in the early spring from Belarus, which might find it easy to take an abandoned Kyiv; but there is no great advantage to holding an abandoned capital city, as the government will already be operating elsewhere, and there are also rumors of spreading illness among the soldiers in Belarus (which I would tend to assess as plausible: such illness is another well-known feature of winter warfare historically).
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