History rhymes, they say:
Although Russia suffered a number of defeats, Emperor Nicholas II remained convinced that Russia could still win if it fought on; he chose to remain engaged in the war and await the outcomes of key naval battles. As hope of victory dissipated, he continued the war to preserve the dignity of Russia by averting a "humiliating peace". Russia ignored Japan's willingness early on to agree to an armistice and rejected the idea of bringing the dispute to the Permanent Court of Arbitration at the Hague. The war was eventually concluded with the Treaty of Portsmouth (5 September [O.S. 23 August] 1905), mediated by US President Theodore Roosevelt. The complete victory of the Japanese military surprised international observers and transformed the balance of power in both East Asia and Eastern Europe, resulting in Japan's emergence as a great power and a decline in the Russian Empire's prestige and influence in eastern Europe. Russia's incurrence of substantial casualties and losses for a cause that resulted in humiliating defeat contributed to a growing domestic unrest which culminated in the 1905 Russian Revolution, and severely damaged the prestige of the Russian autocracy.
The Russians have once again found themselves in a conflict with a power they assumed inferior that they can neither seem to win nor escape. In this case the sticky element is again that the supposedly inferior power proved to have military might much greater than expected: the Japanese because they'd carefully constructed Western-style technologies over the decades following the Meiji Restoration; Ukraine because NATO and especially the United States have found ways to support the conflict without being dragged into it (so far).
Russia is still making slow progress in the Donbas region, which was the main objective of their offensive, so they may avoid a 'humiliating peace.' Their reputation as a military power has been savaged, though, and the prestige of the Putin regime badly damaged. Whether that portents a future revolution in Russia remains to be seen.
6 comments:
1868 to 1905. Go from a feudal society waving swords in a country where mass production of anything was non existent, to defeating a major European power in what was the most technologically advanced form of combat.
37 years. One of the most astounding examples of progress I have ever heard of.
Japanese tourists still make a side trip to Portsmouth when they come to Boston. The Treaty of Portsmouth is still taught in schools there. There isn't much for them to see other than Strawbery Banke, but they come anyway.
Interestingly they also like to go to Prince Edward Island to see Anne of Green Gables sites. Unfortunately, it's not near anything big, so it's more than a day trip from anywhere.
I see it in much the same way, the east of Ukraine was always the stepping stone to securing Crimea as a warm water port. The issue pooty poot got into was greed in trying to create a "shoreline land bridge" over to Transnistria & Moldova.
It is one thing to throw away thousands of Russian conscript lives and multiple hundreds of T-72's, artillery & logistics in a disorganized "feint attack" on Kiev, if thats what it was. Its quite another to be bold enough to try and take Odessa and then march up to the border of Romania through Moldova ...a member in good standing with NATO for almost two decades.
It would never be tolerated.
History is replete with the downfall of nations (and people) who overplayed the hand dealt to them.
Its poker, not chess ;-)
nmewn
37 years. One of the most astounding examples of progress I have ever heard of.
It really is astonishing. In the same period, there was also a lot of progress in the United States -- but it was already well begun by the 1860s, and it had a very large pseudo-colonial base from which to extract resources both in the defeated South, and in Latin America. Japan at this time was doing it all by itself.
"...bold enough to try and take Odessa..."
I expected an assault on Odessa, but things have gone so badly now I think that must be out of reach. If the push from the Crimea had gone better, so that they could have enveloped Odessa by land and then proceeded with an amphibious assault, it might have worked. At this point, unless they resort to tactical nuclear weapons it is probably out of range.
Although modernization really got going after the Meiji Restoration in 1868, Commodore Perry convinced the Japanese in 1854 that they needed to modernize and the shogunate and some individual provinces began doing so. It was slow from 1854-1868, but they began importing rifles and artillery and hired foreign advisors to train some of their troops.
The rebel provinces modernized faster, leading to some lopsided battles where rebel rifle units with light artillery fought against shogunal units armed with spears and swords. However, there were some straight up modern battles where both sides were armed primarily with rifles and light artillery.
Of course, the British-French competition was involved. The shogunate chose French advisors and purchased French arms, so the British smuggled in British arms and advisors to the rebel provinces.
Going from armies of sword and spearmen in 1854 to defeating Russia in 1905 is still quite impressive.
(If you want to see a John Wayne movie about the first consul in Japan in 1856, you could watch The Barbarian and the Geisha. I don't remember it being a great movie, but it's John Wayne, geisha, and samurai, so kinda something for everyone I guess.)
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