Roger Pielke unwraps the brand-new IPCC report:
For my technical readers, the scenarios judged unlikely by the IPCC are high emission (“such as RCP8.5 or SSP5-8.5”) and the scenarios “in line” with current policies are intermediate scenarios (“RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and SSP2-4.5”).
This is huge news. Fantastic in fact. Why? The extreme scenario RCP8.5 was in the most recent IPCC report identified as our most likely future. Now IPCC has completely reversed that, and it is now considered low likelihood. There could not be a more profound change in the scenario foundation of climate science.
Instead of apocalyptic warnings about “immediate risk” a top line message of this report should be: Great News! The Extreme Scenario that IPCC Saw as Most Likely in 2013 is Now Judged Low Likelihood. I am actually floored that this incredible change in such a short time apparently hasn’t even been noticed, much less broadcast around the world.
2 comments:
Judith Curry is a climate scientist who was previously at Georgia Tech but left academia because she felt the political climate made it almost impossible to do good/honest work in that field. Her recent presentation on what is known and what is unknown can be found here:
https://judithcurry.com/2021/10/22/challenges-of-the-clean-energy-transition/
But.....what would it serve, to notice?
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