The dam seems unlikely to be overtopped; the river is still 50 feet below "maximum water level" according to the WSJ.
It's not a new structure, but it's not old, either--some 20-ish years. I don't see the dam being blown over by the pressure from the full-to-overfull reservoir, either. I don't know how bad the undercutting has become in the dam's base.
PRC engineering skills aren't the only question mark; so is their construction skills. Both have seemed inconsistent--very good when the prestige and strength of the State are important--tech development, the PLA, space--but not so much when mere lives are at risk.
I think the dam will survive the present situation, but it won't have many more of these cycles before it fails.
One of the concerns is that a section of the dam had already begun deforming after the last major flood. That's not a good thing, and makes me wonder what other structural problems are in/around the dam. How well has it been tied to the surrounding rock? Were all the reinforcing materials really put into the structure? Just how badly has it silted up already, and will that stabilize the dam structure or cause other problems?
My area of interest is rock-core earthen dams, like most of the ones in the western US, so I have lots of questions but no good answers when it comes to cement gravity dams.
More on this--not the likelihood of TGD failure, but the possible outcomes of a failure--from Huntsman on Twitter. I have no idea of his credibility, but here it is.
https://twitter.com/man_integrated/status/1287836332883050498 RTWT; the last 11 pieces of his remarks are under an "11 more replies" link.
A map of his expected economic results is here: https://twitter.com/man_integrated/status/1287836374557696001/photo/1
I think his military risk analysis is off. Assuming the PRC does mount a military response, I don't think they'll sabre rattle first; I think they'll strike from the outset. If Huntsman's economic analysis is correct, the PRC won't be able to sustain sabre rattling and more or less measured military action; they'll need to strike hard and win quickly.
6 comments:
Really, I don't have a notion. Not a civil engineer, don't know anything about big dam construction, and the thing might hold.
I’m not either, but I lived in China long enough to have a sense of the quality of Chinese engineering. And that thing’s not brand new.
The dam seems unlikely to be overtopped; the river is still 50 feet below "maximum water level" according to the WSJ.
It's not a new structure, but it's not old, either--some 20-ish years. I don't see the dam being blown over by the pressure from the full-to-overfull reservoir, either. I don't know how bad the undercutting has become in the dam's base.
PRC engineering skills aren't the only question mark; so is their construction skills. Both have seemed inconsistent--very good when the prestige and strength of the State are important--tech development, the PLA, space--but not so much when mere lives are at risk.
I think the dam will survive the present situation, but it won't have many more of these cycles before it fails.
Eric Hines
IF it does fail, there are some 3.5 million souls in the areas that would be affected...
One of the concerns is that a section of the dam had already begun deforming after the last major flood. That's not a good thing, and makes me wonder what other structural problems are in/around the dam. How well has it been tied to the surrounding rock? Were all the reinforcing materials really put into the structure? Just how badly has it silted up already, and will that stabilize the dam structure or cause other problems?
My area of interest is rock-core earthen dams, like most of the ones in the western US, so I have lots of questions but no good answers when it comes to cement gravity dams.
LittleRed1
More on this--not the likelihood of TGD failure, but the possible outcomes of a failure--from Huntsman on Twitter. I have no idea of his credibility, but here it is.
https://twitter.com/man_integrated/status/1287836332883050498 RTWT; the last 11 pieces of his remarks are under an "11 more replies" link.
A map of his expected economic results is here: https://twitter.com/man_integrated/status/1287836374557696001/photo/1
I think his military risk analysis is off. Assuming the PRC does mount a military response, I don't think they'll sabre rattle first; I think they'll strike from the outset. If Huntsman's economic analysis is correct, the PRC won't be able to sustain sabre rattling and more or less measured military action; they'll need to strike hard and win quickly.
Eric Hines
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