A Palestinian cleric, brandishing a knife, commands his brothers to stab Jews. 'Now we know why the Jews built walls around Jerusalem: to keep their throats from being cut.'
Well, the walls you see around the Old City today were built by the Turks. But the purpose was the same. He is, in this limited way, correct: that is what walls are for. They are to protect the goods of civilization from the barbarians outside.
Israel has become incredibly isolated in the last few weeks. Even a month ago, it was possible to believe that Israel could unilaterally destroy Iran's nuclear program if it decided it had no other choice. Such action would have required them to become open about their possession of nuclear weapons, most likely: even our ground-penetrating conventional weapons might not accomplish the task. If we were going to take military action against Iran, it would be better to go in on the ground and use sappers, reserving the air forces to pin down and destroy the IRGC units that tried to stop us.
With the Russians deploying air forces and advanced anti-aircraft weapons in Syria, however, the odds that Israel even could stop Iran have lengthened considerably. Indeed, at this point it will be difficult for us to maintain our limited deployment in Iraq. Those forces are cut off in every direction, a danger that I wonder if the Obama administration has begun to ponder. They would probably be allowed to withdraw, if they go now. Alternatively we could send up a force through Kuwait to provide them a salient through which they could withdraw even in the face of Iranian opposition. But they are completely exposed to the whims of our enemies as it stands. They are even sharing basing with Iranian militias.
In time the logic of that will play out one way or the other. Either we will go, or our forces will serve as hostages for our good behavior, or they will be killed in a deniable act of war ordered by Iran but carried out by proxies they need not acknowledge.
Israel is very much alone at the moment. It would take very bold action for America to protect them, action that would need to be both bold and wise if it was not to set off a war with Russia. We do not currently have the leadership for such action. Our civilian leaders are neither bold nor wise, not in their carrying out of foreign policy in the Middle East, and Central Command is dogged by a scandal that reaches to its highest levels. It will be some time before that could possibly change for the better, and at this point it must be doubtful that it ever does.
6 comments:
Israel is not going under without a fight, and I do not think we have a clue as to how much fight is in them. It would not surprise me if as a last ditch measure, a Masada if you will, that they decide to take out not just Iran but the entire Ummah. When you ain't got nothing, you got nothing to lose. They have been made a pariah by the rest of the Nations of the World, so why not? Can they be any deader than dead? Realistically, they are better off with quick death , than the protracted horror the Muslims would inflict on them. So my bet is we will see an Israel free from all those years of self imposed rules of engagement, operating on an existential total war footing.
Could be suicidal. Pakistan can reach Israel with nukes. Would Pakistan launch risking an Indian reaction? Probably not, but are you going to count on rational logic here? I'm not.
I think the Israelis would be the most likely to go in on the ground, rather than air strike- everyone expects the air strike, and I'd bet Mossad has contacts in country they could exploit.
That is what I meant by "taking out the Ummah",they may decide to launch on the whole shooting match- Pakistan, Iran,Syria, the gulf states, every Islamic state of any significance. In short, reduce the entire proposed caliphate to rubble.
Given the repeated rhetoric that Israel must be destroyed, and all the Jews killed, and long history of terrorist attacks and the repulsion of any peace overtures, and the apparent support of most of the rest of the world in this abomination, and the example of the latest rape, torture, and slavery ring, they may just do it.
Is there any rational reason , IF they do decide to hit Iran with nukes, to NOT hit the rest? At that point, is there any downside to taking out the rest of their foes?
I don't know what the status of their arsenal is. But Jerusalem has walls. I wonder how many of us might be inclined to go defend them.
The wages for being an American ally is the death and the betrayal.
Or maybe better put as death from betrayal. It has usually been thus when the US was in American Evil Empire mode under certain administrations and/or regime philosophies. Bay of Pigs. Diem assassination. List can go on for awhile. No matter the past glories of WWI, the Philippines, and WWII, Democrats can always overturn any glory with betrayal and sabotage. With time, certainly with time.
Is there any rational reason , IF they do decide to hit Iran with nukes, to NOT hit the rest? At that point, is there any downside to taking out the rest of their foes?
There is probably no military reason against that, Raven, however, the Israelis have been time and again limited by the Culture of Life in their political and warrior classes. It's not merely an ROE for them, this is the contest of their identity, the culture of life, vs the Arabs and Muslims, the culture of death.
Normally the warrior castes have enough elements from the culture of death to do the killing, but Israel's warriors are controlled by the civilians. So that is kept in check more or less. What would it take to unleash that? Hard to say, but Israel has almost always chosen the least amount of force.
The American military used to be like that as well, as well as the American police organizations. They are becoming more and more a culture of corruption, a culture of death, where people are expended for some SJW social political benefit like transexual or homosexual bennies. The Left used the Culture of Life's preference for least force projections, and turned it into a weapon to replace the Culture of Life with the Leftist and Islamic Culture of Death. the transformation will only grow exponentially in rate and power.
That does mean they are giving the anti Leftists the weapons and mental philosophies (power of death) needed to kill the Left or Islam, but it's a race. To eliminate the caliphate, the population must be depopulated, as the Mongols figured out. Ironically, Genghis Khan is a feared and hated figure in Islam. For good reason. He killed them more than any other force in human history. He wiped them from the face of existence.
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