Harsh but fair

Speaking of the Tim Cook of terror--the best shorthand I've heard in a long time for second-rate pseudolegacies--here is Kurt Schlichter's assessment of the Democrat presidential field.  He thinks the nod definitely goes to Biden, but is less sure of the VP slot.

[M]aybe Biden will pick him for VP – if so, I’ve got $10 that says Smart Joe will get caught on tape at a rally explaining to disappointed feminists that, “Well, a gay guy counts as a woman, right?” You know that will totally happen.

Understudies

John Podhoretz ponders whether killing Soleimani is a fundamental change, or only the usual opportunity for a leadership rotation in terrorist circles.  He comes down on the side of change:

It may be true that if you kill one terrorist mastermind, another will rise in his place. But the fact is that masterminds like Soleimani do not grow on trees. If you think of him as the Steve Jobs of state-sponsored terror, then it seems plausible to likely that he will be followed by a less creative type — the Tim Cook of terror, say.

I hope he's right. There's no doubt Soleimani had stiff competition in the eel-brain department, but as an effective leader maybe not.

As Podhoretz argues, deterrence isn't peace, and deterred enemies aren't friends.  By the same token, enemies don't become friends when you cozy up to them and offer appeasement.  Trump seems adept at using the carrot and the stick, which makes his foreign policy more coherent than the usual run of American deep-thinkers.

Thinking Too Much of Ourselves

A criticism of criticism. The fellow is from Brookings, which is institutionally suspect on Middle Eastern issues because it receives vast funding from Qatar; however, I see little wrong with the major point he's making on this occasion.

Those who said there will be war may not have realized there already was war.... Iran... may find new ways to escalate, but Iran had already been escalating. The regime of the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, with its Iranian patrons, led by Soleimani, has been waging a brutal assault on Syrians for more than eight years. War, in short, has been happening—costing hundreds of thousands of Syrian civilians their lives—since long before Donald Trump ordered the drone strike against Soleimani.

In the aftermath of the strike, critics of the Trump administration’s foreign policy, particularly on the left, have described the move as one more rash American intervention that’s sure to further destabilize the region. Yet this formulation gives U.S. policy, for all its flaws, too much credit. Not everything is America’s fault; others are sometimes to blame; and no one, not even the weaker parties, are devoid of agency or freed of responsibility. The burden of de-escalation does not fall entirely on the United States; Iran, too, can choose to de-escalate.

Actually, his minor point is pretty good too.

There is also the problem of Trump himself. Because killing Soleimani was very much his decision—reflecting the impulsiveness and disarray a decision by him implies—it seems fair to assume that one’s view of the president will affect how one interprets the fallout from Soleimani’s killing. Correcting for subconscious bias isn’t easy, but at the very least, observers should be aware of the Trump effect.

Well, indeed. One might begin trying to correct for this particular one by examining how one responded to President Obama's very regular targeted killings -- or whether you felt like the War Powers Act was being openly flaunted by Team Obama in its decision to overthrow Libya for no apparent reason.

Maybe Major General Solemani was higher profile than most of Obama's victims -- though he was a Major General out of uniform, operating in a foreign country while under UN travel sanctions and US State and Treasury designation as the terrorist head of a terrorist organization that is itself a subset of a terrorist organization. He wasn't a higher profile victim than Qaddafi, though; and President Trump didn't overthrow a whole country just to get at him.

Speaking of which, Turkey is apparently moving forces into Libya to try to quell the remaining fires of the civil war Obama kicked off nine years ago. They have, of course, chosen to back the wrong side; but it's also the side Obama had picked, quite a few of whom were al Qaeda affiliates in the grand days of that movement. The Trump administration doesn't seem to care about Libya one way or the other, and will likely let the Turks decide the issue if they are able. Trump, at least, doesn't share the opinion that America is indispensable to these conflicts.

Stuck in the last war

Jim Geraghty chronicles the state of the MSM reportage on who exactly it was that bombed the Saudi oil facilities several months ago.  The early reporting included hostile suspicion of all Trump administration attempts to pin the responsibility on Iran.  That went on for several months, until a magically quiet revolution reversed the story without any acknowledgement that the early reports were flat wrong.

Yesterday, Reuters: “Yemen’s Houthi group did not launch an attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities in September, according to a confidential report by U.N. sanctions monitors seen by Reuters on Wednesday, bolstering a U.S. accusation that Iran was responsible.”

Also yesterday, a New York Times article declared: “with tensions between the United States and Iran at the highest level in four decades, the unexpected success of the September strike on the Saudi oil facilities is a stark reminder that Tehran has an array of stealthier weapons in its arsenal that could pose far greater threats if the hostilities escalate.”

Somewhere along the line, the American national news media either decided or realized that Secretary Pompeo and the U.S. government were not lying, were not making this up, and were not using shoddy intelligence to hype a threat from an authoritarian Middle Eastern regime. The declaration that Iran was responsible stopped being controversial, disputed, or unproven. It just became a fact, one that can be cited in an article about how dangerous the current moment is and the high risks of the president’s actions.

This is all leftover guilt about the Iraq War, isn’t it? So many of the people in foreign affairs journalism imbibed the “Bush lied us into war” rhetoric so deeply that they’ve concluded that American officials must be treated with way more skepticism than officials in secretive and serially dishonest authoritarian regimes. They say generals are always fighting the last war; apparently journalists are always covering the last one, too.

Clean Air

In LA, better school air filters raised test scores — a lot.

On Marriage

Or at least, on my marriage.  Yesterday was a special day for me.  January 7th wasn't a birthday, or anniversary, or indeed any particular date of note in and of itself.  But January 7th, 2020 marked the day where I had been married to my wife longer than I had ever been single.  Yes, I counted.

And while on one hand it represents just a statistical oddity, and was marked by no great fanfare, it was nonetheless important to me.  And it struck me as the sort of thing that Cass would have marked on VC back in the day.  And moreso, she would have some valuable insight into the institution of marriage, or time, or the relationship between men and women that would have sparked an interesting discussion.  As I said, I've been reading my way through the archives (currently I'm on September of 2013), and I decided that since she's not posting about this sort of thing at the moment, I'll do my best to channel the inner Cassandra and find something interesting to observe.  I can't promise I'll be successful.

Official fictions

I am as usual very confused about international military strategy; the American people can count themselves lucky that I'm not their chief executive.  Still, I've been impressed with Lee Smith's reporting on the appalling Russian collusion story to have some confidence in his ability to sift through propaganda and outright lies, so I thought I'd give his Iranian analysis a try:

The Iranian revolution was evidence to our ruling class of how much their fathers had gotten wrong—and thus proof of their own virtue.

* * *

U.S. policymakers preferred the fiction that Hezbollah was a homegrown product because it supported both their emotional needs and their policy goals: The West had earned the righteous anger of the natives, and there was nothing to be done except atone by way of offering human sacrifices.

* * *

Six U.S. administrations were complicit in turning Iran into a regional power. In that context, the Obama administration’s decision to flood Iranian war chests with cash and recognize its right to build a nuclear bomb was the logical culmination of the rot eating away at the Beltway for four decades. It was perhaps to be expected that an outsider who often doesn’t know when to keep quiet, and can’t stay off Twitter, would be the one to sing out like the boy in the fairy tale. It’s true, the emperor has no clothes. The rules have changed but that doesn’t mean the Iranians won’t be looking for revenge.

BB: Methodists Split Over Remaining Christian

Apparently a tough choice.

“There was just no way to reconcile differences,” said Rev. Lloyd Patrick, one of those dismayed by the recent push by traditionalists to follow the Bible instead of each person’s own heart. “A lot of people still want to follow Jesus -- a person from 2000 years ago who made no statements about pronouns and thus has no relevance today -- which is just silly since we all know so much more now and have a better grasp on morality than a bunch of ancient people.”

The Altai Band - Jingle Bells

Greek Helmets

North of the Black Sea, for the first time.

A Carol to Celebrate the Epiphany

Just thought a carol would be appropriate to celebrate today, the Epiphany.  Allison Kraus and Yo-Yo Ma doing the Wexford Carol, for your enjoyment:

Success and Killing Your Children

An article against the proposition that is necessary.

Hibernation

I almost thought it was Spring, with all the anti-war Democrats emerging.  It's seems like only yesterday, that Smilin' Joe Biden went on record saying that if Iran attacked any American facility it would be considered an act of war and warrant "any" retaliation.  I think Iran is way past due.

 

Something else to investigate

From the Spectator:

Why, you may ask, is the Obama shadow government continuing its efforts to resurrect the atrocious and inexplicably deleterious Iran nuclear deal? The answer to that question may lie in the following May 8, 2018 Tweet by one Raman Ghavami (@Raman_Ghavami) which was made following Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal and imposition of trading sanctions. Citing the senior adviser to Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif, Ghavami’s Tweet reads in full as follows:

H.J. Ansari Zarif’s senior advisor: ‘If Europeans stop trading with Iran and don’t put pressure on US then we will reveal which western politicians and how much money they had received during nuclear negotiations to make #IranDeal happen.’ That would be interesting.

Can this be true? Were western politicians — including members of the Obama administration — paid by Iran to enter into the idiotic and dangerous Iran nuclear deal? Could this also explain why, as found by the Senate Permanent Committee on Investigations, the Obama administration lied to Congress to gain approval of the deal while it worked behind the scenes to allow Iran access to U.S. financial markets? Could it be that officials of the Obama administration were and continue to be motivated by Iranian payoffs to sell out America?

That explains it

Presidential candidate Joe Biden makes a hash of answering the question whether he was lying when he claimed people could keep their plans under Obamacare, or simply didn't understand the legislation he was advocating.

No, look, the fact is that what I’m talking about now is that when – because I get asked the question – since, what I do is I’d add a public option to the existence of Obamacare, meaning that a Medicare-like option is available if in fact you – but there’s 160 million people out there who’ve negotiated a health care plan with their employer that they like and they don’t want to have to give up like Medicare for All requires. It says you have to give it up. You cannot have any private insurance.

* * *

But the fact is that when something’s taken away, when you – people didn’t know. I used to say to President Obama, “Mr. President, why don’t you take a victory lap? You got this passed. Let people know exactly what’s happened.”

…And he’d say, “We don’t have time to take a victory lap. We have too many things we have to do.” So people didn’t know, and we lost the House of Representatives after that passed. And people attributed to the fact that Obamacare passed and that was one of the arguments made, whether it’s true or not.

Continental drift

One of the best things about YouTube is its animated timelines for human or geological history. This one shows the movement of continents from the beginnings of large, organized life almost 550 million years ago. (Simpler life apparently started billions of years earlier, but left much more ambiguous traces.)

One of my favorite parts is the subcontinent of India shooting off towards Asia like something shot out of a sling. That's some impact. It started about 50 million years ago, which was before people, but after dinosaurs. India was hanging around down near Madagascar when it got caught on a fast conveyor belt that was getting sucked under Asia. It looks like a floating raft headed for a storm drain, but too big to fit. Australia is still on a collision path with Asia, though a much slower one.

This video was embedded in an interesting article from Watts up with That, summarizing the hot and ice ages over the last 550 million years, the point being that Earth's heating and cooling during geological eras is affected by the predominance or scarcity of continents in the tropical zones. We are currently in a 30-million-year-old ice age, a condition encountered only about a tenth of the time over geological timescales, but because we evolved during it, it strikes us as the way things ought to be for "life." In fact, however, we're in a geological brief interglacial period within a much more severe ice age. Humans wouldn't care for the more severe manifestations of a typical ice age.

Why are there ice ages? There is an interesting, but far from settled, link between the Sun's orbit through the Milky Way Galaxy and the typical 150-million-yearish cycle of ice ages.

Food on the vine

This was fun. I'd seen some of these crops growing, like pineapples and brussels sprouts, but not others.

Sex Differences in America: A Partial List

It’s one-sided but it’s also AEI. The data is thus probably accurate, even if it is cherry-picked to make their point.

Remember, “Literally” Means “Figuratively” Now

I had a feeling that particular change was going to come back and bite us.

Cultural appropriation