How Do You Know Who the Experts Are?

There are two ways to know if someone is an expert. The first one is to have some expertise yourself, so that you can judge the quality of their work. However, no one can be expert in every field, and we often need to judge the quality of an 'expert' exactly when we aren't expert enough in that field (and consequently need to hire someone who is moreso to help us).

The second way is to rely on their reputation. If lots of people report that they did a good job in this field, you might have some reason to judge that they are indeed expert in that field. You might pick a plumber based on online reviews of their work, for example.

However, this method is subject to fraud. Online reviews can be concocted. What happens when a large, overlapping class of fakes mutually reinforce each other's claims to expertise?

The farce that has passed for public discourse the last two years was fueled by a concerted effort of the media and the pundit class to obscure gaping holes in logic as well as law. And yet, they all appeared to be credible because the institutions sustaining them are credible.

Michael McFaul was U.S. ambassador to Moscow—he knows everything about Russia. He wouldn’t invent stuff about national security matters out of thin air. Jane Mayer is a national treasure, one of America’s greatest living journalists who penned a long profile of Christopher Steele in the pages of the New Yorker. Susan Hennessy is a former intelligence community lawyer, who appears as an expert on TV. And how about her colleague at the Lawfare blog, Benjamin Wittes, a Brookings Institution fellow and a personal friend of James Comey? You think he didn’t have the inside dope, every time he posted a “Boom” GIF on Twitter predicting the final nail just about to be hammered in Trump’s coffin?

Many more jumped on the dog pile along with them, validating each other’s tweets and breathless insider sourcing. The point was to thicken the echo chamber, with voices from the right as well as the left in order to make it seem real. Hey, if this many experts are saying so, there must be something to it.

Except, there wasn’t—ever.

What to do about that? You can become expert yourself, or develop a better network of validators.

The sky's not falling. The sky's the limit.

Ken Paxton (Texas Attorney General) summarizes in USA Today:

It’s a sad commentary that alarms go up among Washington elites when the Trump administration defends the Constitution and holds Congress to its word. That is, after all, what the Department of Justice did this week by agreeing with a federal court that all of Obamacare is unconstitutional.

Pundits declare that this decision will have disastrous political consequences for Republicans. The Constitution’s approval rating is far higher than Congress’, so I think reports of our demise are greatly exaggerated. However, if the pundits are right, the Trump administration deserves all the more credit for putting the Constitution and the rule of law ahead of politics.

* * *

The end of Obamacare is not the end of health care reform, but the beginning. Each state can now decide for itself what type of health care system it wants and how best to provide for those with pre-existing conditions, just as the Founders intended.

States like Texas will be able to return to their plans for pre-existing conditions that use high-risk pools; other states, like Massachusetts, can opt for a system along the lines of Obamacare or something else entirely. The Trump administration knows the sky is not falling on health care — it’s now the limit.

And now for something completely different

No snark on this one, despite this week's unusually rich pickings.

OSS Man Sterling Hayden

Soldier of Fortune magazine has an article about this very interesting career: OSS, Marine Corps, smuggler, Hollywood actor. Unfortunately at points a Communist sympathizer, he had a major role in Dr. Strangelove and was also in The Godfather.

More on Male & Female Brains

Another study on the issue, this one doing actual brain scans of fetuses.

Red Flag Laws

As the Trump administration makes bump stocks a felony, the GOP-led Senate is considering allowing the police to pre-emptively seize your guns if someone files a 'red flag' report.

These laws allow law enforcement, and in some states, relatives and other concerned parties, to petition judges in order to temporarily restrict access to firearms from people who may be a harm to themselves or others.

Supporters of the laws say they can save lives by removing guns from individuals who should not have them. Some states have used the laws to successfully protect individuals from suicide, at least one study shows. Opponents of such laws say they violate the second amendment and say they do nothing to thwart the underlying issues causing the threat....

"I think passing a federal law is probably beyond what the market will bear. But creating an incentive at the federal level for states who want to go down this road...I think that's the best way, at least initially to solve this problem," [Sen.] Graham said.

Instead, he hopes to get a federal law enacted to incentivize states to create their own unique extreme risk laws.

California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the committee's top Democrat, said future red flag laws should include what amounts to be a progressive wish list of gun control measures, including universal background checks, closing the so-called Charleston loophole and banning assault weapons.

"To be clear, extreme risk gun laws are a vital part of that effort," Feinstein said.

I'm not entirely sure what I think about these laws. On the one hand, there have been several cases of school shooters, etc., who were repeatedly reported to police before they carried out their murders. It might make some sense to create a mechanism for handling cases like that. On the other hand, since they haven't yet committed any crime, seizing their property -- even temporarily -- would ordinarily be out of line for the government. And, of course, there's no reason to believe that the power to 'temporarily' seize your guns, until you satisfy the government that you're fit to retain them, won't be expanded and abused. The fact that Sen. Fenstein can't help but slaver over the additional measures she wants on top of this highlights the risk of letting this camel get its nose into the tent.

So on balance, I think I'm opposed to the idea, even though I can see why it might be a reasonable thing to want to do in some cases. However, my opposition is weaker than it usually is to gun control measures.

Green New Deal Shot Down

It may rise again, but it garnered zero "yea" votes in the Senate -- not even from its co-author, not even from its co-sponsors.

NBC reports this as "the Senate fails to advance Green New Deal."

Some Minor Changes in Boston

The law hasn't changed, but the prosecutor has taken it on herself to alter the way in which the law is applied.

Not that I'm a huge fan of laws, but it is traditional to consult the legislature before effectively legalizing things like shoplifting, larceny, wanton destruction of property, trespass, breaking and entering....

The part where she is personally to be immediately informed if any personnel suspect an ICE or Homeland Security agent may be attending court is a nice touch, too.

This is absolutely hysterical!

I know this is long, but please make it to at least 4:30.

Alcosynth

I would prefer that you could come up with a way to improve the human body's ability to handle alcohol, rather than coming up with a substitute for alcohol; still, this is a potentially helpful field of research. Lots of people's lives would be improved by this.

What Nutt now knows is that there are 15 different Gaba receptor subtypes in multiple brain regions, “and alcohol is very promiscuous. It will bind to them all.” Without giving away his trade secrets, he says he has found which Gaba and other receptors can be stimulated to induce tipsiness without adverse effects. “We know where in the brain alcohol has its ‘good’ effects and ‘bad’ effects, and what particular receptors mediate that – Gaba, glutamate and other ones, such as serotonin and dopamine. The effects of alcohol are complicated but … you can target the parts of the brain you want to target.”

Handily, you can modify the way in which a molecule binds to a receptor to produce different effects. You can design a peak effect into it, so no matter how much Alcarelle you consume, you won’t get hammered. This is well-established science; in fact Nutt says a number of medicines, such as the smoking cessation drug varenicline (marketed as Champix), use a similar shut-off effect. You can create other effects, too, while still avoiding inebriation, so you could choose between a party drink or a business-lunch beverage.

Coming up with the concept was the easy bit, says Nutt. Finding the right molecule was more challenging, “but the real challenge is taking that molecule to a drink. The regulatory side is much harder than the science.”

Now that I believe.

Chicago Justice

That actor who filed a fake hate crime report? All charges dropped, records sealed.

Many years ago there was a populist politician in Knoxville politics named Cas Walker. Dad used to tell stories about him. On his famous radio show, the Cas Walker Farm and Home Hour (which sometimes featured the likes of Roy Acuff), Cas would often complain about other local politicians. One time he was complaining about the police's new habit of running DUI checkpoints around Knoxville.

'This practice has got to stop,' Dad reported him having said. 'Some of our best citizens are getting caught up in these things.'

Apparently Chicago feels much the same way.

9th Circuit Court A Little Less Wobbly

These judicial picks are good news.

The Glaciers are Growing

It's been a tough week for the major narrative.

Maybe Next Lent

An Army vet loses 25 pounds on his Lenten fast.

When Lent began March 6, Hall initiated a fully liquid diet in order to become less dependent on fatty foods and sugar.

Only, the fluid he settled on consuming to provide his greatest sustenance is beer....

Hall’s fasting inspiration comes from 17th century Bavarian monks, he said, who would observe the holy time of Lent through fasting on a “Bock Beer Diet.”

“Fasting is a big part of being human and we don’t really do that anymore,” he said in a YouTube video documenting his progress. “It’s not necessarily about the weight loss as it is the challenge of replicating what the monks did" over a 46-day fast. “It’s about the journey and learning about yourself.”

I imagine a lot of that lost weight is muscle, though, because beer isn't a great source of protein.

C'mon, would it kill you to submit a little?

That which does not kill you is not a crime, unless it involves a plastic straw or hate speech that hurts feelz.

Trump was exonerated only in the Electoral College report

Kidding.  Sheesh, his readers do take things a little literally.

Below, at Elise's suggestion:

A Good Summary

Seppuku is an option, members of the press.

The betrayal narrative was not reported as metaphor. It was not “Trump likes the Russians so much, he might as well be a spy for them.” It was literal spying, treason, and election-fixing – crimes so severe, former NSA employee John Schindler told reporters, Trump “will die in jail.”

In the early months of this scandal, the New York Times said Trump’s campaign had “repeated contacts” with Russian intelligence; the Wall Street Journal told us our spy agencies were withholding intelligence from the new President out of fear he was compromised; news leaked out our spy chiefs had even told other countries like Israel not to share their intel with us, because the Russians might have “leverages of pressure” on Trump.

CNN told us Trump officials had been in “constant contact” with “Russians known to U.S. intelligence,” and the former director of the CIA, who’d helped kick-start the investigation that led to Mueller’s probe, said the President was guilty of “high crimes and misdemeanors,” committing acts “nothing short of treasonous.”

Hillary Clinton insisted Russians “could not have known how to weaponize” political ads unless they’d been “guided” by Americans. Asked if she meant Trump, she said, “It’s pretty hard not to.” Harry Reid similarly said he had “no doubt” that the Trump campaign was “in on the deal” to help Russians with the leak.

UPDATE: I just want to say one thing about this fiasco. The whole thing began with General Flynn, who was fired as NSA for having spoken to the Russian ambassador about a possible quid pro quo relationship going forward and then not reporting that fact to the Vice President. The fact that the Russians felt the need to pursue a relationship like that going forward meant that one wasn't already established prior to the election.

The original grounds of the investigation logically entailed an absence of pre-election collusion. That no intelligence officer would ever recruit a man like Donald Trump -- reckless, careless of speech, impulsive, undisciplined -- requires experience to know. That the Flynn accusations contradicted an already-established relationship should have been instantly apparent to anyone with clarity of thought.

Comey was fired, we think, because he wouldn't let go of an investigation that logic should have forestalled. Two years of investigation followed to try to establish what was clearly not the case, just based on the very thing that the Flynn investigation was supposedly about.

This is a huge failure of the press; it is a huge failure of the security state. But it is also a failure of our education system. What do they teach in these schools on which we spend so much money?

A Song of the Beautiful Time

It's a little before '69, which AVI says is the end of the period rather than the beginning of it. I wasn't quite there, so I'll bend to the judgment of my elders on the point.



You can easily see what I like about it: the rejection of the city, the embrace of the canyon, the love of simple beauty and a renewed sort of human relation. It's interesting for those of you who follow my movie recommendation of last week, as it turns up in an interesting context.

The 2020 field

But before I laugh too much at this, I try to remember the SNL skit from the run-up to the 1992 election, when the Dem field was huge and all the contestants gave the distinct impression they'd rather not run.  SNL had them all in a room together, each explaining why he wasn't the right candidate this cycle.  Mario Cuomo kept saying "I've got mob ties."  Tipper Gore appeared for Al and objected that her husband wasn't there to defend himself.  I couldn't find the video clip, but here's a transcript.  Note the conspicuous absence of a particular candidate.

Campaign '92: The Race To Avoid Being The Guy Who Loses To Bush

Moderator: Good evening. I'm Fay Sullivan, of the League of Women Voters. Welcome to this, the first in a series of debates among the five leading Democrats who are trying to avoid being forced by their party into a hopeless race against President George Bush. Most of them have already announced that they're not interested in the nomination. But each, of course, is under enormous pressure to be the "chump" who will take on the futile task of running against this very, very popular incumbent. They are... Sen. Bill Bradley of New Jersey.

Sen. Bill Bradley: I am not a candidate for President in 1992.

Moderator: House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt of Missouri..

Congressman Dick Gephardt: I do not seek my party's nomination.

Moderator: Sen. Lloyd Bentsen of Texas.

Sen. Lloyd Bentsen: I do not wish to be my party's nominee in the next election.

Moderator: Here for her husband, Sen. Al Gore of Tennessee, Tipper Gore.

Tipper Gore: He's not interested.

Moderator: And Gov. Mario Cuomo, of New York.

Gov. Mario Cuomo: No way!

Moderator: Gov. Cuomo, let's begin with you. In a way, one might say there's no reason for any of you to be forced into this race. After all, there are already several announced candidates for the Democratic nomination - Sen. Kerrey, Sen. Harkin, former Gov. Brown, and so on. Why is your party begging you, or any of you, to enter the race?

Gov. Mario Cuomo: Fay, I don't know. But I'll tell you something - if the Democratic Party were to make me its candidate in 1992, it would go down as its worse defeat in history.

Sen. Bill Bradley: Oh, come on, Mario! You're probably the best candidate we've got!

Everyone: Cuomo! Cuomo! Cuomo! Cuomo!

Gov. Mario Cuomo: Please, please! Bill! Now, I resent the implication that I'm the strongest candidate here. Let's be frank - you're far better than any of us, or have you forgotten your brilliant play as you led the New York Knicks to victory in the 1973 NBA Finals?

Everyone: Bradley! Bradley! Bradley! Bradley!

Gov. Mario Cuomo: Now, Bill, you could show me polls that have me losing to Bush by 7 points, and I can show you polls that have me losing to Bush by 40 points - that's not the issue! The issue is my record. After eight years of my mismanagement as governor, the economy of New York State is in a shambles! Now, I don't think anyone here can point to a record like that.

Congressman Dick Gephardt: Now, wait a minute.

Moderator: Congressman Gephardt?

Everyone: Gephardt! Gephardt! Gephardt! Gephardt!

Congressman Dick Gephardt: Well, hold on! Now, if you wanna talk about shambles, let's talk about the U.S. House of Representatives, of which I am the Majority Leader. You know, the real enemy facing this country isn't the Soviets, it isn't the Japanese - it's people like me! And the American people know it. The fact is, I couldn't beat David Duke in Harlem! What this party needs is someone with the vision, the integrity, and the guts of an Al Gore.

Everyone: Gore! Gore! Gore! Gore!

Tipper Gore: That isn't fair! My husband isn't here tonight to answer to that kind of smear!

Congressman Dick Gephardt: Then, I have to ask you, if your husband doesn't think he should be this party's nominee, why didn't he bother to show up here tonight?

Tipper Gore: My husband is with our kids at a gay porno theater.

Everyone: Oh, come on! Come on!

Moderator: Gentlemen, please! Sen. Bentsen, we haven't heard from you yet.

Everyone: Bentsen! Bentsen! Bentsen! Bentsen!

Moderator: Please... please... Senator, tell us why Lloyd Bentsen should not be President.

Sen. Lloyd Bentsen: Oh, Fay, there are so many reasons. But, ultimately, it comes down to one - this election is about ideas. And the fact is, I have none. Nothing, covers empty, nada, not a one! You know, I remind myself of that commercial, "Where's The Beef?" And that's the problem with Lloyd Bentsen - where's the beef?

Sen. Bill Bradley: Uh, may I?

Moderator: Sen. Bradley?

Sen. Bill Bradley: What about me? If Lloyd wants to talk about lack of substance, I say what about me? I'm an ex-jock. End of story. The fact is, Lloyd is one of the finest minds in the Senate! In fact, he reminds many of us of another great democrat - John F. Kennedy.

Sen. Lloyd Bentsen: Sen Bradley, I knew Jack Kennedy. I worked with Jack Kennedy. I am no Jack Kennedy.

Sen. Bill Bradley: Senator, that was uncalled for.

Sen. Lloyd Bentsen: The fact is, when most people hear the name Lloyd Bentsen, they don't think of Jack Kennedy; they think of two other fellows - Michael Dukakis and Willie Horton.

Tipper Gore: Lloyd, that is shameless!

Gov. Mario Cuomo: Sen. Bentsen, I resent the suggestion that you are somehow more the candidate of Willie Horton than anyone else here! The fact is, as governor of New York, I have pardoned criminals far worse than Willie Horton! Including key figures in organized crime, who happen top be close friends of mine! Yes! I'm talking about the mob!

Moderator: Well... gentlemen, Mrs. Gore...we've reached the end of our alotted time. Each of you is now allowed a brief closing statement. Let's begin with Tipper Gore.

Tipper Gore: Thank you, Fay. I'm a mother of three children, and, like any mother, I want the best possible future for my kids. When I think of a future with my husband as President, frankly, I'm scared. Thank you.

Moderator: Congressman Gephardt?

Congressman Dick Gephardt: There's a feeling abroad in this land. You can sense it from the textile workers in South Carolina, from machinists in Detroit, and ranchers in Wyoming. The feeling that Dick Gephardt represents everything that's wrong with this country. You don't want me as your president, and neither do I. I want to remain in Congress. After all, that's where the money is - your money. Thank you.

Moderator: Sen. Bradley?

Sen. Bill Bradley: Well, there are people that will tell you that I can beat George Bush. Why? Because I'm a sports celebrity. But I think you, the American people, are smarter than that. You want a leader you can defend against terrorism, not jump shots; who can make a foreign policy, not an inbound pass; a leader who can run an economy, not a three-man weave. If America ever needs a man in a low post... perhaps I'm the guy... but, when it comes to our nation's highest post, I just don't cut it. Thank you.

Moderator: And now, Sen. Bentsen.

Sen. Lloyd Bentsen: I'm old.. and I'm only gonna be getting older. Older and more confused. Hell, I can't tell you all the names of the people that are standing right here. One thing I can tell you, is that George Bush would beat the living bejebus out of me. He's done it before, just ask a couple friends of mine - Michael Dukakis and Willie Horton. 

Moderator: And, finally, Gov. Cuomo.

Gov. Mario Cuomo: Thank you, Fay. Tonight, we've heard a lot about images of perception, about what poll shows what candidate losing by the least to whom at any given time. Now, I could stand here and talk about the inaccuracy of polling, or the subjective nature of the process - but that's not the real issue here! The real issue is simple - I... have... mob ties!

Moderator: Well, that brings to a close, the first in a series of Democratic Presidential debates. Thank you, all of you, for your participation here tonight. And I'd also like to take this opportunity to remind our viewers at home that democracy works only when you vote. When you don't take the time to vote for the candidate you find the least offensive, you run the risk of electing the candidate you find the most offensive. Good night.

I did find a link, but it has an annoying ad first.