I've been wondering if the "death from all causes" rate was going to drop in 2021, as a result of a virus whose defining characteristic may be its ability to carry off vulnerable and/or elderly people with unusually short life expectancies. Are we already seeing the trend begin? The September number took a real dive.
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I don't think it did. That looks way lower than anything before. I'd guess incomplete reporting makes it look low. I'd bet those two last bars will look higher in 2 weeks.
James is right. The reporting can take up to 4 weeks, so everything in September is probably going to go up.
I'm thirding James as right -- I've seen similar reports each month since March based upon some country's data, and in each case it was an artifact resulting from incomplete data that went away later.
I do still think that eventually we're going to see this, as a large proportion of the excess deaths -- particularly in places like New York and Sweden, were premature deaths, whether directly COVID-19 complicated or from indirect COVID-19 induced causes such as delayed treatment of non-covid medical problems.
William Briggs (https://wmbriggs.com/) has a good series of updates where he explains the excess deaths measurement. According to his site (and CDC, I think) the lag can be up to eight weeks, but a delay of three weeks gets you pretty close.
That does sound like a good theory. We'll have to take a look again in a few weeks.
One Critical Item that contaminates all of the mortality rate data (as opposed to information) is the apparently vast per centage of Wuhan Virus "deaths" that are attributed to the virus if it's merely present in the body, without regard to the comorbidities that also are present and might have been the actual cause.
Eric Hines
E Hines - doubt no more - https://assistantvillageidiot.blogspot.com/2020/09/excess-deaths-are-c19-deaths.html
I suspect that you are correct in that we will likely see a dip below the line, but as to whether we're there yet or not- agree with all the above. The Wuhan virus plucked a lot of low hanging fruit, and that has to mean we will see a period in the relatively near future where deaths are down at that point because of the 'early harvest' (to be a little cold about it).
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