Today, the risk that we’re facing is not of societies collapsing one by one, but because of globalization, the risk we are facing is of the collapse of the whole world.Well, I could say that collapse has a 50% chance of occurring: either it will, or it won't.
How likely do you think that is? That the whole network of civilization would collapse?
I would estimate the chances are about 49 percent that the world as we know it will collapse by about 2050.... At the rate we’re going now, resources that are essential for complex societies are being managed unsustainably. Fisheries around the world, most fisheries are being managed unsustainably, and they’re getting depleted. Farms around the world, most farms are being managed unsustainably. Soil, topsoil around the world. Fresh water around the world is being managed unsustainably. With all these things, at the rate we’re going now, we can carry on with our present unsustainable use for a few decades, and by around 2050 we won’t be able to continue it any longer. Which means that by 2050 either we’ve figured out a sustainable course, or it’ll be too late.
On the other hand, he has some surprisingly positive things to say about the role of corporations.
I see that corporations, big corporations, while some of them do horrible things, some of them also are doing wonderful things which don’t make the front page. When there was the Exxon Valdez spill off Alaska, you can bet that made the front page. When Chevron was managing its oil field in Papua New Guinea in a utterly rigorous way, better than any national park I’ve ever been in, that certainly did not make the front page because it wasn’t a good picture.That sounds suspiciously like sanity. So maybe give him your ear, and see what you think.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpaACo-7qn0
What's going to happen is:
Mini ice age
Flat Earth Theory
Aliens
WW3
Not in any particular order.
So far, Civil War 2 is still inevitable, but not WW3 or nuclear holocaust. Age of Resurrection is still on track and inevitable.
The Earth is apparently going to go into a reset period to get the fish back. That means Frost punk temperatures though, but slowly.
The Earth does not need humans to maintain it, although it would help.
So before things collapse in 2050, the Earth will reset. Which might bring out the darkest roaches as the light encroaches, creating what seems to be Armageddon.
Well, I'll take those odds, especially as it can't take into account one of the most important factors in such calculations- Human ingenuity. How many times have we seen circumstances at least as indicative of catastrophic collapse and not seen it happen? Several at least. When there is a problem that's addressable by humanity, at some point it makes itself impossible to overlook, and we reach a point of agreement in addressing it, and usually because someone has devised a new technology or understanding that makes dealing with the problem feasible.
A few specific critiques-
-When he speaks of Cahokia, he suggests that they created an environmental disaster that caused their collapse. I can see them ruining/depleting the resources immediately around them, but at worst that necessitates a move, not utter collapse of the society. Yet he suggest otherwise- "subsequently we’ve learned that there was a very good study about the role of climate changes and flooding on the Mississippi River in ruining Cahokia. ... Past societies have destroyed themselves." So the Cahokians by themselves cause more severe flooding of the Mississippi River? Doubtful.
-He claims "recognition by the American public as a whole that there is quite a change in that we are responsible for it." I'm pretty sure that most Americans do not in fact believe in AGW, or whatever the alarmists are selling now.
-When he gets to the bit about corporations and mentions that he’s on a couple of boards, I see a potential self-interest in some of what he’s building a case for. Proves nothing, but worth noting.
-"California makes me optimistic. It does have the environmental problems but nevertheless we have, I would say, one of the best state governments, if not the best state government in the United States." Well, at this point, your suggestion that his is exhibiting sanity is coming into question- and I say this as a Californian.
-I probably have to agree with him that living in the Northeast in an urban center is nuts.
So, I’ll put him down as Malthusian and not worry too much about what he’s saying.
Oh, forgot one point- He talks about globalization tying us together and worrying that it could bring us down together. Even with globalization, regions and nations are not all at the same phase of civilization, nor stage of economic development, and the same stresses work differently on those differences. Having markets that interact doesn't link us into a single global civilization, so I'm skeptical that collapse would be widespread and catastrophic across the board.
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