As
Paul Rahe notes at Ricochet, Putin understands very well that the only people facing any real threat from the President of the U.S. are his domestic enemies:
Russia does not now have the means by which to pursue [its global ambitions], and it is not going to acquire the requisite means. . . . Russia is a banana republic with nuclear weapons. Economically, it is almost as dependent on resource extraction as Saudi Arabia, and the pertinent resource is slowly being depleted. . . . At the same time, Putin's Russia is ignoring the only strategic threat it faces. The United States is not Russia's enemy. It is not even a rival. We once had an interest in containing and dismembering the Soviet empire in eastern Europe and the Soviet Union itself. We have no interest in further reducing Russia's extent; and, insofar as we see Russia as a potential trading partner, our interest lies in Russian economic development. The same can be said even more emphatically for Germany, France, Britain, and the other countries in Europe.
There is, however, one country with an imperial past and a renewed craving for empire that has territorial ambitions which make of it a threat to Russia, and that country is China.
5 comments:
The PRC is just one serious strategic problem that Russia faces.
Another is demographics.
Russia will at some point in the not too distant future once again experience natural population loss: the youth cohort born during the chaotic 1990′s is simply too small to keep births at their current level. However the extent and rapidity of this eventual population loss is very much up for debate, and it’s worth remembering that Russia has, over the past several years, exhibited a resiliency that was entirely unexpected by professional demographers.
They're at a tipping point, and their population growth rate puts a premium on "repatriating" as much of their ethnic Russian population as they can; if the rate turns negative again, for any length of time, Russia will become especially dangerous.
Demographically, Ukraine is in even worse shape.
Eric Hines
I haven't seen this 'demographic' argument work yet, anywhere.
It might not this time, either. But we've also never been an aging species before, either as a whole or in any of our jurisdictional divisions.
Eric Hines
You ever been to Florida?
Putin's been addressing that with incentives and campaigns to encourage having children. He's no dummy.
Post a Comment