As of this morning, I see the "Experts Cautious" story is still about the fourth story, rather below the story about the perils of icy roads in the D.C. area. And then there is this story, which for some reason they think is worth a headline: "Four... Vikings Charged in Boat Incident." Well, what did you expect?
They also have a link to an opinion piece which link states that "The struggle for Mideast democracy will be a human triumph if it succeeds -- but not, by itself, a victory for American national security." Emphasis added.
The Post's link is more negative than the article itself, which is the point. The editors are playing up the negatives. The author, Susan E. Rice, is raising the still-unresolved question of whether liberty is enough:
As the joyous display of purple fingers in Iraq again attests, the national struggle for democracy is a moral good and, if it succeeds, a human triumph. But it is not by itself a victory for American national security. We need a policy based on the recognition that democracy in the Middle East and beyond is definitely desirable, maybe necessary but hardly sufficient to secure our future.The terms "necessary condition" and "sufficient condition" are from the discipline of logic. Let's say that you want to have a fire. In order to do so, you need oxygen. The presence of oxygen is a "necessary condition" because you can not have fire without it.
It is not a sufficient condition, however, because the presence of oxygen doesn't guarantee fire. Rice says that the presence of a successful democracy in Iraq and the Middle East doesn't guarantee American security. That remains to be seen (even Rice says that "the jury remains out"), but let's grant the point.
If it is still a necessary condition, then there is no point in arguing over it. Even if it isn't enough, we still have to have it. We can't give up on the oxygen. It's necessary.
Her suggestions are "flawed in another way," as she says about Bush's policy:
From Mali to Tanzania, from Bangladesh to Indonesia, poverty hobbles many nascent democracies, which cannot prevent terrorists from operating on their territory or contain outbreaks of disease. To strengthen weak states, we must do more than promote democracy. We must join with others to build state capacity, in substantial part by helping to alleviate poverty.Of course Ms. Rice will have noticed this year's efforts to "build state capacity" in the wake of the tsunami. But, being a senior fellow of the Brookings institute, she must also know that the U.S. leads the world in real dollar donations of foreign aid.
The charge against the U.S. on foreign aid is that it doesn't donate as large a percentage of its GNP as other nations. If you follow that link, you'll find two bar graphs, one that shows real dollar amounts, and the other that shows percentages. The U.S. donates about 0.15% of its GNP in foreign aid, much less than Norway. Yet the U.S. donates $18,999,000,000 in real dollars. If you combine the next two top countries (Japan and France), you don't get that much. Norway, however generous their government may be as a percentage, donates less than 1/8th as much.
Where else do we see this situation? A situation where a lower rate of donations actually leads to far higher real numbers? Why, right here: in the U.S. tax system, which is also condemned because it doesn't demand 'a large enough percentage of the incomes of the richest.'
Again, a chart: the percentage is down, the receipts are up. This is not a coincidence. It's an economic law. People who complain about the "rate" of giving apparently believe that we can raise the "rate" of giving without negative impact on the total production. It's not so. Take fuel out of the economy, and it produces less.
The U.S. could raise its taxes, or spend less on internal improvements and more on gifts to the world. But if it did, it would have negative consequences for our economy. In spite of the improved percentage of foreign aid, the real dollar amounts would drop.
Whatever. If the most serious charge against Iraq that can be raised now is that we must give more aid in addition to achieving victory, I'll call that a win.
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