Credit

Credit Where Credit Is Due:

I see that InstaPundit points to a P.A. Miller piece asking why there are suddenly calls for withdrawal from Iraq. The fellow posits a theory: that victory is nigh, and political opponents of the White House and the war must derail it if at all possible.

Grim's Hall asked the same question two weeks ago, and credit for having come up with that line of argument may properly belong to commenters "g wood" and Noel. They both articulated forms of it at that time.

Is it true? Howard Dean said that defeat is certain, as did Richard Cohen. John Kerry is expanding the complaint, accusing the military of terrorizing children in Iraq. That sounds like three of the top figures for the Left, all asserting not only that we are going to lose, but in fact that we ought to lose. It would be morally improper for a military force that makes its way by terrorizing kids to win any victory. Any good American should oppose it.

Evidence against that proposition is legion. Consider this graph, or General Abazaid's comments:

[The General] is amazed as he goes around the country and testifies before the Congress how many of our countrymen do not know or understand what we are doing or how we are doing. There are very few members of Congress who have ever worn the uniform (of our armed forces). He said that the questions he gets from some in Congress convince him that they have the idea that we are about to pushed out of Iraq and Afghanistan. There is no relation between this and the reality on the ground.

As he goes around the region and talks to troops and junior officer he is very impressed by their morale and their achievements. They are confident that they are capable of defeating the enemy. You will never see a headline in this country about a school opening or a power station being built and coming on line, or a community doing well. Only the negative things will get coverage in the media. He told the mid-grade/senior officers to go to their local Lions Clubs when they go home and tell the people what they are doing. If they don't get the word out, the American people will not know what is really happening.

You can also consider Bill Roggio's reports from the ground. I've had the pleasure of working with Bill, and while I know him to be devoted to the cause of victory, I also have faith that he would give it to you straight if he thought we weren't winning. Yet his reports, which unlike the media reports actually come from someone who understands strategy and tactics, are quite positive and well informed.

At this point, I think that anyone who asserts that we are being defeated in Iraq falls into one of three categories:

A) Someone ignorant of military science.

B) Someone acting out of a political agenda that benefits from defeat in Iraq.

C) Someone who should be challenged to prove it.

I have never seen a convincing argument based in military science that the war is unwinnable, or even that it isn't being won. Concerns that it could be handled better in certain areas, which I sometimes share, don't amount to an overriding argument that the war is failing overall. Even if every area of the war were being mismanaged, that war could still be won if the enemy is weaker (as ours is), your resources are greater (as ours are), and the dynamics of the war favor you rather than your opponent. I believe that the dynamics favor our side, for reasons explained in these several pieces I have written over the last year and a half.

Anybody who wants to prove me wrong is invited to break lances with me. If they cannot explain why we are supposedly losing, with actual evidence to demonstrate that their trend analyses are correct or at least plausible, I must assert that they fall into category A or B. When I wrote about this topic first some weeks ago, I found it hard to believe that any serious political figure in America could prefer defeat just because it would confer a domestic political advantage. Yet, as Sherlock Holmes said, "When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." Here, then, is a chance to prove that it is possible to believe we are losing, and not fall in camp A or B.