The New York Times > Washington > U.S. Commanders See Possible Cut in Troops in Iraq

MILSCI: What Victory Looks Like

Now that even The New York Times admits that Iraq is going well, I think it's time to recognize that we are on the road to victory. There remain pitfalls, to be sure, but they are mostly -- as they have been all along -- political rather than military. There is much more risk in the Iraqi political process than in the enemy's attacks.

The enemy has resorted to bold, futile attacks that have little prospect of success -- the rough equivalent, in roulette, of putting all your remaining chips on 22 in the hope of winning enough back to make up for what you've lost. All there is to win, even should they be successful, is a propaganda victory. There are adequate reinforcements to retake any areas almost at once. The increase in Iraqi security forces has allowed for persistant control even in what were "no go" areas six months ago.

In addition, our own units -- always superior to the foe -- have improved and hardened. JHD reports on 2/2's movements via email. For OPSEC reasons, I won't share the details, but I will pass on this: according to his thumbnail estimate, 75% of the 2/2 Marines are now "Senior Marines." Such men will not be lightly overthrown on the field. Indeed, they will ravage anyone who dares to rise up against them.

That said, I invite readers to reconsider the analysis I wrote of the Iraq War back in mid-September. It is called Clausewitz and the Triangle. I think it's fair to say that it predicted all these trends accurately, and well in advance of their appearance.

I wrote at the time that a study of military science was of tremendous importance to all citizens. It allows, I held, for a correct evaluation of what are otherwise confusing and frightening issues. The nation's fortunes are never more at risk than in matters of war and law, two matters on which it is so easy to become dependent on expert opinion. Both are complicated areas, with huge and arcane libraries of information and thought, eternally growing under the hands of men whose lives are devoted to filling them.

Still, we are called by our duty to understand. It can be done, as I hope this exercise has proven. It can be done by citizens, with no better tools than an education in military science, newspapers, and friends in the service who will give them the straight story.

What is unexplained, as yet, is why it couldn't be done by the CIA. But that is a question for another day.