We've had statements from Colin Powell, Tony Blair, and many others denying that we are planning invasions of Syria or Iran. I believe them. I still wonder what's going on with the Syrian oil pipeline, though. The Gulf Daily News, citing unnamed "analysts" and "economists," says that Syria can absorb the loss of contraband Iraqi oil--thought to have been supplied to the tune of 200,000 barrels a day!--if and only if it engages in market reforms and exploratory drilling:
Syria may miss the extra cash from Iraq, but some economists say it has enough foreign exchange to cushion the fall for now, and its own oil production of about 500,000 bpd can meet immediate domestic needs. "Iraqi oil was a boost for Syria's economy, but is not essential," said Syrian economist Nabil Sukkar.So, my guess at this stage: the administration is after free market reforms in Syria, combined with a drop in revenue available to the government for the purposes of sponsoring terrorism. Since we will soon be in charge of the Iraqi oil fields, at least for a while, access to them on generous terms would be a nice carrot to go with the "or else" stick represented by the I MEF, 3rd and 4th Infantry, 7th Cavalry, and 101st Airborne.
"Syria has been alright as far as foreign exchange is concerned since it discovered and started extracting its own oil."
But Syria's oil reserves are dwindling and economists and diplomats say it must find new oil or develop its gas sector fast if it is to continue seeing revenue from energy exports.
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