Netanyahu offers a deal: those who hand over hostages will receive permission to leave Gaza (granted immunity and safe passage)... Netanyahu: Hamas will no longer rule Gaza, this is the beginning of the day after. To the Hamas terrorists - whoever holds the hostages and lays down his weapon, we will allow him to live and whoever harms them - blood on his headKnesset Speaker Amir Ohana posted a message in Arabic on X: "A year ago he was a hero, now he is annihilated. Where will you be in a year? Return the kidnapped, lay down your weapons, save your souls." - to the people of Gaza.
Safe Passage
Asheville Resumes Normal Search and Rescue
Thousands of volunteers checked and re-checked at least 15,982 households, helping worried loved ones find reassurance that their friends, family and neighbors were safe.
The scale and success of these volunteer efforts in the emergency should be encouraging to all.
'The Opposition is Crazy'
Third, we’re facing a mental health and social isolation crisis. Young men are lonelier and struggling with mental health issues at higher rates, partly fueled by social media and the erosion of traditional community institutions (churches, men’s groups, etc.). White men in America are four times more likely to commit suicide than any other group. This is a national crisis, and we’re barely talking about it.Fourth, there’s an identity crisis. Gender roles and societal expectations are shifting (which is a good thing!), and young men are left wondering where they fit in. Without positive role models, many gravitate toward toxic figures like Donald Trump, because at least someone is speaking to their frustrations—however inartfully (which is being generous). Democrats haven’t done enough to offer better alternatives, though I think we’re starting to, with people like Tim Walz, Pete Buttigieg, and Doug Emhoff stepping up as strong role models.Fifth, forming relationships—especially romantic ones—has become harder. Economic pressures and the rise of online dating have created new dynamics that are disincentivizing young men (and women, for that matter) from building meaningful connections. This only adds to their sense of isolation and fuels resentment, particularly toward women and those who are economically better off....We can’t keep acting like white men don’t have real issues. Everyone is suffering from something, and everyone deserves to have that suffering addressed by their government. If we address these issues with the same seriousness we give to other communities, we won’t win them all—but we don’t have to. We’re building a multicultural coalition to move this country forward, but we can’t ignore the real challenges young white men are facing.
An aside: I'm not sure that anyone deserves to have the government address their suffering -- haven't they already suffered enough?
Leaving that alone, though, the Hot Air post begins on the relatively solid ground that a lot of actual diagnoses have been given to young liberal women. Even that is doubtful to me: I think you get a mental health diagnosis essentially anytime you ask for one, because that's the only way to get your insurance to pay for whatever it is you want, and the psychologist/therapist/doctor/whomever wants to get paid. Thus, I don't think 'more mental health diagnoses' actually demonstrates more mental health issues: I think younger people are more likely to seek out psychology/therapy than older people, women than men, and liberals than conservatives for what amount to cultural reasons. If old conservative men went to therapy at the same rate as young liberal women, in other words, I'd assume they'd receive diagnoses of some sort at the same rate -- i.e., approximately 100% of the time, so that the money can flow.
It is interesting that Hot Air views the gender issue as already a mental health issue, while the liberal poster views the changes in gender identity as a good and healthy thing that is nevertheless provoking mental health issues (apparently by not providing 'better alternatives,' which may begin with the fact that the poster himself seems to think that fake-combat-veteran-and-non-CSM Walz represents a better alternative).
What really is driving this deep division isn't, I submit, craziness. It's interest. The administrative state directly employs or supports a vast percentage of our population. Its interests and theirs are aligned to such a degree that they will tend to support it.
Because that state has become ossified and thereby nonfunctional, however, it is harming us all. Also, as Weber knew from the beginning, the administrative state is inherently corrupt, and creates a class of administrators that rules in its class interests in a way that diverges from the public good. The interest in significant reform (or replacement) is therefore also quite large.
Both of these collections of interests are rational, rather than the working of some deep irrational urge. We do need reform, but those deep and powerful reforms will definitely disrupt the rice bowls of tens of millions of people. It's going to cause real pain when the reforms come.
To my way of thinking it still needs to be done, and ultimately it's better to do it in a planned and intentional way than to wait for the eventual unplanned collapse. I can easily understand why public school teachers shudder at the thought of a thoroughgoing reform of the way we educate children, though; or academics of academia; or Federal/state employees of the civil service; or those who have obtained degrees in social sciences the revocation of the power of Human Resources over corporations and society; or those who are heavily invested in the big corporations, the loss of regulatory barriers to entry for new competitors; etc.
Clearing all that away is wise and necessary, but the considerations about how much suffering it will entail are rational ones. Your opponents may sometimes scream and wail as they contemplate it, but they are not thereby crazy.
Operation Airdrop
Crime Up Significantly
When the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate fell by 2.1%. This quickly became, and remains, a Democratic Party talking point to counter Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime.But the FBI has quietly revised those numbers, releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5%. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.The Bureau – which has been at the center of partisan storms – made no mention of these revisions in its September 2024 press release.
John Lott, the author here, has been on this for a while. I admit that I initially took the UCR statistics at face value, as most of the ways I was familiar with seeing them manipulated happen at the local level rather than the Federal level. Douglas warned me in the comments to the post on murder rates that major cities were choosing to omit themselves from the statistics, which is a local-level manipulation but on a grand scale.
(Also, here is an Obama-era exception in which the Feds were changing rates by changing definitions, though that change appears to have been ideological rather than strictly manipulatory: they wanted rape understood differently from the traditional definition of 'physically forced to have sex.')
This, however, is apparently the FBI putting its own finger on the scales at the Federal level. Lott notes that this kind of major 'stealth edit' is becoming a standard practice.
The actual changes in crimes are extensive. The updated data for 2022 report that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. The question naturally arises: should the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed?...
The FBI isn’t the only government agency that has been revising its data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics massively overestimated the number of jobs created during the year that ended in March by 818,000 people.
If you're going to go that far towards destroying your credibility as a source of data, why not wait another month to publish the revisions? Obviously the desired effect was achieved -- the headlines were that crime was 'down,' and the statistical revision won't make the NYT or CBS News. Still, you could have avoided even having it here by putting off your revisions a short time.
DOJ Thinks Firefighter Math is Racist
[T]he lawsuits... claim that tests are racist because blacks fail them at a higher percentage than whites, and require cash awards to be paid to those blacks who failed them. Most blacks generally pass the tests, and the lawsuits do not explain how the tests can be racist against only some blacks. Blacks who passed the tests are excluded from the financial payouts.Last week, Durham, North Carolina settled with the DOJ, saying blacks failed the tests required to become a firefighter more often, and “Employers should identify and eliminate practices that have a disparate impact based on race.” It said the Durham Fire Department must pay nearly a million dollars to people who failed the test, and hire up to 16 of them.While the DOJ said the tests were not relevant to actually being a good firefighter, an online practice test suggests that it is directly relevant, that people could die if such firefighters were hired. One question asks if a building is 350 feet away, how many 60-foot hoses would be needed.
The tests are of uneven quality at best. The way they work is that the questions are drawn at random from a large database of test questions that were approved in advance, and the instructor has no way of knowing which questions will appear. The test is administered by a proctor, so the instructor doesn't even see the test on the day of the test.
The intent is to foster honest testing, but the effects entail that there is no guarantee that the firefighters will have been taught the material on which they are tested. The testing database is only reviewed occasionally, so there are reasonable odds that a question might appear that is out of date. Two examples: in the helicopter rescue operations test we were asked one question about an outdated practice dating to pilots who would have been trained on Medievac in Vietnam; on another occasion, we were asked multiple technical questions about standards for Type I Harnesses, which no longer exist because that entire type was disqualified as acceptable by the NFPA standard a long time ago.
I've also seen test answers that were outright violations of logic. For example, once we received a question about how much heat a device could be exposed to before needing to be replaced. The answers were, I believe, 100 degrees, 200 degrees, 240 degrees, and 300 degrees. Logically only 300 could be correct given that only one answer was acceptable, because if you were exposed to 300 degrees you were also exposed to at least 240, 200, and 100 as well. However, the correct answer was (IIRC) 240, even though being exposed to 300 degrees would exceed that standard also.
So there's a lot of cramming and memorization, just stuffing your head with the exact technical figures that are likely to turn up on a test. Almost none of it is relevant to an emergency, as the decisions about what equipment you will have on the occasion were made long ago when the stuff was purchased -- and the purchases were made by people who had ample leisure to check the technical standards and be sure they were correct.
I don't think the tests are racist, unless there's a racial disparity in the ability to memorize trivia. I do think they're not the most useful way to test qualifications. As for the one question they ask in the article, maybe it's helpful to know that you will need six hose sections; but probably you aren't going to have an exact measurement of the distance, and you'll just keep adding hose until you get there. I have trouble imagining an occasion when you'd park the apparatus 350 feet away from the fire you wanted to fight anyway; more likely you'll be parked a lot closer, and using the hoses to link multiple apparatus together to boost pressure (and, in rural environments without fireplugs, to increase your water supply or to enable tankers to tie in and out as they go to get more).
The whole system could usefully be rethought. The DOJ's effort, however, is not likely to improve it because it isn't aimed at the parts that don't work well.
VDH on Harris' Mythology
Columbus Day
'Not Worse than Landmines'
'The U.S.’s adversaries “use phrases that sound really good in a sound bite: Well, can’t you agree that a robot should never be able to decide who lives and dies?” Luckey said during a talk earlier this month at Pepperdine University. “And my point to them is, where’s the moral high ground in a landmine that can’t tell the difference between a school bus full of kids and a Russian tank?”'
At War Again
Full anti-Musk freakout mode
Happy Birthday
A Quiet Evening in October
Two Hurricanes and a Solar Storm
We could all use a laugh, I think, though some of us more than others, I'm sure. Here's a random collection of things that made me at least chuckle; I hope you find something amusing here.
First up, Merle Hazard, who usually sings about economics but has taken up another theme here.
Tours
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| By Charles de Steuben - Bataille de Poitiers en octobre 732 - Unknown source, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=363367 |
Douglas reminded us of the anniversary of the Battle of Lepanto on October 7. Today is the 1,292nd anniversary of the Battle of Tours, where armies from Gaul and Aquitaine led by Charles Martel defeated an Islamic army led by Abd al-Rahman al-Ghafiqi, governor of al-Andalus (AKA Spain).
There is some debate about its historical importance, but in any case it seems to be agreed that it sealed Frankish domination over western Europe. What seems to be in question is the extent to which it stopped the Islamic imperial advance into Europe. Was this incursion merely a raid in force or was it an actual invasion to help the Umayyad empire expand? At least, that's the debate as I understand it; this isn't my area.
Terror Arrests in OKC
According to the local CBS affiliate on October 9th:
The FBI has arrested an Afghan man who officials say was inspired by the Islamic State militant organization and was plotting an Election Day attack targeting large crowds in the U.S., the Justice Department said Tuesday.
Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, 27, of Oklahoma City told investigators after his arrest Monday that he had planned his attack to coincide with Election Day next month and that he and a co-conspirator expected to die as martyrs, according to charging documents.
Tawhedi, who arrived in the U.S. in September 2021, had taken steps in recent weeks to advance his attack plans, including by ordering AK-47 rifles, liquidating his family’s assets and buying one-way tickets for his wife and child to travel home to Afghanistan, officials said.
...
Tawhedi’s alleged co-conspirator was not identified by the Justice Department, which described him only as a juvenile, a fellow Afghan national and the brother of Tawhedi’s wife.
PJ Media actually covered it on the 8th. They provide a copy of the criminal complaint filed in the US District Court at the end of their report.
NC Solar Power Set Up
For those who have followed my links to the other Thomas's experiences with Hurricane Helene, he has posted his solar set up. Although his area is without power, and may be without electricity for another couple of months depending on how long it takes to rebuild the roads, he never lost power. He goes into some detail on it in his most recent post. Interestingly, he uses Tesla batteries.
I also noticed his family name is Witherspoon and I should probably have called him TW here to differentiate from myself.
Micro-preemie still micro
Maybe the race isn't that close
If allowance is made for the fact that the Democrats carry California and New York by almost 5 million more votes than the Republicans comfortably carry Texas, Florida, and Tennessee, Trump is leading by about 8 million votes in the other 45 states.Of course, it's not about the popular vote, it's the vote in the likely swing states.
Leif Erikson Day
Many believe that roughly a millennium ago, Leif Erikson — a Norse explorer — and his crew were the first Europeans to reach the shores of North America. His spirit of adventure, curiosity, and resilience would inspire generations of Danes, Finns, Icelanders, Norwegians, and Swedes to sail across an ocean and begin new lives in America. These immigrants built bustling homes and enriched their communities, supporting and realizing the American Dream. They fought for our freedoms in the military; built new churches, businesses, and schools; and spearheaded social movements. Today, Nordic communities continue to enrich the fabric of the Nation.



