A few days ago, the President "invoked" the Defense Production Act, leaving some question in the press whether he has actually "used" it yet. The New York Post is reporting, however, that President Trump took a call from Senator Schumer formally requesting DPA action to spur the manufacture of ventilators and personal protective equipment, and was heard to agree and to instruct a subordinate to make it so.
More good news: Novartis plans to donate up to 130 million doses of chloroquine worldwide by the end of May. A little slow, but a scale that's starting to approximate what we'll need.
PS, I'd hope we could "embrace the power of and" concerning this constant rhetorical battle over whether we should be optimistic about the reports of useful treatments, or focus on obtaining solid data from double-blind tests. I'd like proof as much as the next guy, but we can do more than one thing at a time. It would be unbearably stupid to put off large-scale use of chloroquine while we conduct leisurely double-blind studies and write them up for the journals. We can already be reasonably sure we're not doing violence to the balance of benefit and harm by giving hospitalized SARS sufferers chloroquine, because the risk of suffocation is already known to be extremely high, while the risk of the drug is already known to be extremely low. Neither is 100%, but that's not the point.
Good stat source
"Watts Up With That" now posts this daily worldwide virus summary. Two things to note: the scales are logarithmic, so a hopeful sign is a curve under 45%, but of course any convex curve beats a concave one. Also, this is deaths per million of population, not the case fatality rate. I prefer the former, because we still have no real grasp of the total number of cases, but we can get a pretty good handle (except in countries we suspect of straight-up lying to us) about both the total deaths and the total population. That rate will of course confound two variables: the cases per population (spread), and the death rate for cases (severity/efficacy of medical system/health of population), but that's the breaks.
From the same source, here is a far more informative than usual recap of the prospects for treatment with chloroquine and remdesivir. I believe there are interesting things happening with convalescent serum, too, though those are hard to scale. Most of these treatments have problems with either evolved resistance, cost, or scalability that mean they will be most helpful in buying time while we work on an effective vaccine. Still, my biggest concern at the moment is finding an approach that relieves our fear of crashing the medical system enough to let most of us go back to work supporting the prosperity that enables us to have a first-class medical system in the first place. If we have to give up on the medical system, we might as well let the virus rip, accept the losses, and remember what it was like to live a century ago, because you can't stop producing essential goods for fear of every contagion out there.
From the same source, here is a far more informative than usual recap of the prospects for treatment with chloroquine and remdesivir. I believe there are interesting things happening with convalescent serum, too, though those are hard to scale. Most of these treatments have problems with either evolved resistance, cost, or scalability that mean they will be most helpful in buying time while we work on an effective vaccine. Still, my biggest concern at the moment is finding an approach that relieves our fear of crashing the medical system enough to let most of us go back to work supporting the prosperity that enables us to have a first-class medical system in the first place. If we have to give up on the medical system, we might as well let the virus rip, accept the losses, and remember what it was like to live a century ago, because you can't stop producing essential goods for fear of every contagion out there.
Old Norse Handwashing
Dr. Crawford offers a couple of stanzas from the Havamal that will take about twenty seconds to recite, if you care to learn a bit of the language.
The dog that hasn't barked
This is puzzling. An L.A. writers makes the reasonable case that the city's homeless population is a coronavirus explosion waiting to happen. The question is, why hasn't it exploded already? Is it really taking that long for the disease to spread to L.A.?
If it weren't for Italy's experience, I'd be more skeptical than I am that this thing is spreading as fast as we feared. Washington looked like a special case. New York is disquieting, though.
If it weren't for Italy's experience, I'd be more skeptical than I am that this thing is spreading as fast as we feared. Washington looked like a special case. New York is disquieting, though.
Knock It Off, Lady
Headline: "The Coronovirus is a Disaster for Feminism."
Thesis: Yes, men die at much higher rates from this disease, but the real tragedy is that more women will have to care for their own children instead of pursuing paid employment or great works.
That may not be universal, but it's certainly on the menu. If you've actually got a great work in you, and not that many people do, you can work it out. If you don't, you know, you'll probably appreciate the time you spent with your kids more than the time you spent at work. When you finally get to a place where you can reflect on what really mattered about your life, you'll be glad of that time.
Thesis: Yes, men die at much higher rates from this disease, but the real tragedy is that more women will have to care for their own children instead of pursuing paid employment or great works.
When people try to be cheerful about social distancing and working from home, noting that William Shakespeare and Isaac Newton did some of their best work while England was ravaged by the plague, there is an obvious response: Neither of them had child-care responsibilities.My sister's husband -- a great guy, this guy, who appears to have majored in college in 'being cool' and then built a life around it -- is the one watching their child all day every day. They won't even let my mother do it, though she's just down the street, out of a desire to keep her quarantined.
That may not be universal, but it's certainly on the menu. If you've actually got a great work in you, and not that many people do, you can work it out. If you don't, you know, you'll probably appreciate the time you spent with your kids more than the time you spent at work. When you finally get to a place where you can reflect on what really mattered about your life, you'll be glad of that time.
"Survival Necessities"
An email from Cold Steel.
I suppose I might need a 1917 Naval cutlass. If things get bad enough, piracy is always an option.
I suppose I might need a 1917 Naval cutlass. If things get bad enough, piracy is always an option.
Goodbye, Senator
One of my new Senators -- new to me since I moved here, I mean, he's been in office entirely too long -- is Richard Burr.
(a) The replacement must be of the same party, and,
(b) Must be chosen from a list of three people selected by that party's leadership.
So there's really nothing to lose in pushing him out. It's all upside.
By the way, the other Senator who chose personal profit over warning the public about the dangers was the one that Georgia Governor Brian Kemp appointed instead of Doug Collins. Kemp's a skunk too, as we were just discussing, and here's evidence that skunks run in packs. Fortunately there is an actual election in Georgia,and the Republican primary is right around the corner. If you're a Republican voter and citizen of Georgia, you should definitely pick Collins to run in the general in November. [Correction: the Senate Special Election will not have a primary, but will feature all candidates from all parties on 3 November. --Grim]
Also, get rid of Kemp when you can. That's my advice.
UPDATE: In researching the Senate Special Election, I discovered that one of the candidates is a man I know personally, Richard Dien Winfield. Don't vote for him. He's a nice guy, but the kind of political philosopher who thinks that the Wise should rule over all of you, and assign guaranteed employement jobs that befit your talents as assessed by them, etc. He should continue teaching Hegel, which he is as good at as anyone in the world, and not move to D.C.
UPDATE: Ah. Sen. Kelly Loeffler, the Senator appointed by Kemp, is married to -- wait for it -- the Chairman of the New York Stock Exchange. That explains why it seemed plausible to Kemp to appoint a non-native Georgian to a Senate seat. Everybody explained that in terms of 'trying to appeal to the white suburban female demographic' or 'trying to appeal to the large transplant population in Atlanta,' but it still seemed amazing that a recent transplant with no longstanding ties to the state who had never held any other political office would be appointed to the Senate. Now it makes perfect sense.
Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., and Sen. Kelly Loeffler, R-Ga., dumped stock holdings worth millions ahead of the market plunge that began in February after they received briefings on the coronavirus, according to published reports Thursday.If you're worried about the state of the Senate should he resign, you need not be. Under NC law, if there is a vacancy in the Senate unexpectedly the governor does appoint his replacement, but...
Burr, the chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, sold the stocks on Feb. 13, ProPublica reported, citing disclosure filings.
Loeffler began dumping shares Jan. 24, after a private briefing for senators from administration officials, including the CDC director and Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institutes of Health, the Daily Beast reported.
Shares of the companies whose stocks she sold are down an average of 33%, since then, according to the report. Loeffler's sales totaled between $1,275,000 and $3,100,000, according to the report.
On Feb. 7, Burr wrote in an op-ed co-authored with Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., that “the United States today is better prepared than ever before to face emerging public health threats, like the coronavirus, in large part due to the work of the Senate Health Committee, Congress, and the Trump Administration.”
Earlier Thursday, NPR reported that Burr offered a far more dire forecast in comments in late February to a private luncheon organized by the Tar Heel Circle.
He warned that travel restrictions, school closures and military involvement could all come to pass, as indeed they have.
(a) The replacement must be of the same party, and,
(b) Must be chosen from a list of three people selected by that party's leadership.
So there's really nothing to lose in pushing him out. It's all upside.
By the way, the other Senator who chose personal profit over warning the public about the dangers was the one that Georgia Governor Brian Kemp appointed instead of Doug Collins. Kemp's a skunk too, as we were just discussing, and here's evidence that skunks run in packs. Fortunately there is an actual election in Georgia,
Also, get rid of Kemp when you can. That's my advice.
UPDATE: In researching the Senate Special Election, I discovered that one of the candidates is a man I know personally, Richard Dien Winfield. Don't vote for him. He's a nice guy, but the kind of political philosopher who thinks that the Wise should rule over all of you, and assign guaranteed employement jobs that befit your talents as assessed by them, etc. He should continue teaching Hegel, which he is as good at as anyone in the world, and not move to D.C.
UPDATE: Ah. Sen. Kelly Loeffler, the Senator appointed by Kemp, is married to -- wait for it -- the Chairman of the New York Stock Exchange. That explains why it seemed plausible to Kemp to appoint a non-native Georgian to a Senate seat. Everybody explained that in terms of 'trying to appeal to the white suburban female demographic' or 'trying to appeal to the large transplant population in Atlanta,' but it still seemed amazing that a recent transplant with no longstanding ties to the state who had never held any other political office would be appointed to the Senate. Now it makes perfect sense.
Even more like this
Not only does the old malaria drug chloroquine work surprisingly well against novel coronavirus, but it's generic, cheap, and widely available. The FDA still isn't willing to go out on a limb saying it's a treatment whose benefits clearly outweigh its risks, but President Trump is leaning hard on them not to get in the way. Sure, we need some traditional, slow double-blind studies. In the meantime, doctors are free to prescribe existing approved drugs for off-label uses in their own discretion. This one's results in Asia were so promising that people in influential positions, including NY Gov. Cuomo, are clamoring for it, and manufacturers already have taken the hint.
We should be able to see a pattern where identifiable populations are taking prophylactic malaria treatments.
We should be able to see a pattern where identifiable populations are taking prophylactic malaria treatments.
Equinox
Surprisingly, the spring equinox is earlier this year than it's been in a long time. Today does in fact feel like the first day of spring, too: whereas it's been hinting at spring for a while, today is genuinely warm.
We are burning gathered brush and deadwood today to create a kind of natural charcoal fertilizer for a garden patch. In the next few days we will turn over the earth, and begin planting as the weather indicates.
A Place Called Papa Joe's
If you didn't happen to know Billy Joe Shaver, well, you probably should. He is one of the great songwriters of the Outlaw Country era. He almost single-handedly wrote Waylon Jenning's best album, "Honky Tonk Heroes." Now this fellow once got into a little trouble in a place called Papa Joe's. This place:
You should probably think twice about messing with anybody when you're in a place like that, but not everybody does. Billy Joe was an old man by then -- heading to his third divorce with the same woman -- and a younger man decided he could bull the old guy. Well, sometimes that works.
Not every time.
Dale Watson wrote a song about it.
Whitey Morgan's version has easier to understand lyrics, although I don't like the instrumentation as well:
Here's Billy Joe explaining what happened, except that nobody but him thinks the other guy had a gun -- all the evidence presented in court had the other guy with a knife. A knife is of course quite as dangerous as a gun in the right hands; at the right range, more dangerous.
Then, once he won the court case, Billy Joe wrote a song about it too. Willie Nelson pitched in.
If you're really seated in the tradition you'll know that Willie's "don't cross him/ don't boss him" language comes from his own best album, 1975's "Red Headed Stranger" about a preacher who killed his wife and her lover in the year of 1901. It's quite a compliment, in its way. In another way, perhaps less so.
You should probably think twice about messing with anybody when you're in a place like that, but not everybody does. Billy Joe was an old man by then -- heading to his third divorce with the same woman -- and a younger man decided he could bull the old guy. Well, sometimes that works.
Not every time.
Dale Watson wrote a song about it.
Whitey Morgan's version has easier to understand lyrics, although I don't like the instrumentation as well:
Here's Billy Joe explaining what happened, except that nobody but him thinks the other guy had a gun -- all the evidence presented in court had the other guy with a knife. A knife is of course quite as dangerous as a gun in the right hands; at the right range, more dangerous.
Then, once he won the court case, Billy Joe wrote a song about it too. Willie Nelson pitched in.
If you're really seated in the tradition you'll know that Willie's "don't cross him/ don't boss him" language comes from his own best album, 1975's "Red Headed Stranger" about a preacher who killed his wife and her lover in the year of 1901. It's quite a compliment, in its way. In another way, perhaps less so.
Per Hypothesis
Scientists claim they have proven Darwin's theory of natural selection. They are still wrestling with a problem that bothered Darwin himself.
If we really applied the same rules, we would cash out our non-scientific notions of 'different races' in terms of subspecies. Then you would have one human species that can interbreed freely amongst itself; but different subspecies whose different traits arose in different ranges (and often just because of Darwinian natural selection, which favored darker skin or eyes in this environment and lighter skin or eyes in that one).
But of course that cannot be done now for the reverse reason that it could not be done then. Now we have a social imperative to pretend that there are no differences at all instead of the social imperative to pretend that the differences were essential and insurmountable. This is called "progress," but in terms of intellectually accepting the consequences of Darwinian theory it leaves us in exactly the same place.
A species is a group of animals that can interbreed freely amongst themselves.Darwin got as far as declaring that the different races were not different species; but he definitely engaged the idea that there were such things as races, and that they must have some sort of biological origin. Just because he was eliminating distinctions between humanity and the rest of the animal kingdom, it only makes sense within his theory to apply the same rules.
Some species contain subspecies – populations within a species that differ from each other with different physical traits and their own breeding ranges.
Northern giraffes have three subspecies that usually live in different locations to each other, while red foxes have the most subspecies – 45 known varieties – spread all over the world.
Humans have no subspecies.
If we really applied the same rules, we would cash out our non-scientific notions of 'different races' in terms of subspecies. Then you would have one human species that can interbreed freely amongst itself; but different subspecies whose different traits arose in different ranges (and often just because of Darwinian natural selection, which favored darker skin or eyes in this environment and lighter skin or eyes in that one).
But of course that cannot be done now for the reverse reason that it could not be done then. Now we have a social imperative to pretend that there are no differences at all instead of the social imperative to pretend that the differences were essential and insurmountable. This is called "progress," but in terms of intellectually accepting the consequences of Darwinian theory it leaves us in exactly the same place.
This is what I like to see
More like this, as Instapundit says: factories shift production to emergency items in short supply.
Anatomy of a Love Song
This is Homer & Jethro, if you don't know them. They were a big influence on Billy Joe Shaver, whom you ought to know.
Xi Hu, Hangzhou
I have climbed the pagoda in this photograph, many years ago when we lived in China. The photo is from Xi Hu, literally "West Lake," near the town of Hangzhou, once capital of the Southern Song Dynasty.
Another Book Recommendation
Mike got me thinking about stretching out and exploring even more chili recipes, so I dug out an old cookbook somebody bought me as a gift some years ago. It's a very good one. I have only minor quibbles with it, and I think I might have gotten my "Deviled Beef" chili from it originally (although the version in the book is quite different from mine as it has evolved, and as I wrote it up here a few days ago).
The book is The Chili Cookbook by Robb Walsh. It contains the oldest surviving chili recipe (a lobster chili encountered by Spanish explorers on the coast of what would come to be known as Latin America). It contains Native American recipes, New Mexican recipes, Texan recipes, and then a whole lot of regional American variations.
I made one last night that I'm just trying today, now that the flavors have melded overnight. It's a classic Texas "Bowl of Red" style recipe, with no peppers in it stronger than ancho, and otherwise just paprika. It was still spicy enough to cause the wife to load it down with sour cream though, because it uses a whole two ounces of ancho in the pot. Of course you can always add more of whatever you want, as I always say when talking about recipes.
The book is The Chili Cookbook by Robb Walsh. It contains the oldest surviving chili recipe (a lobster chili encountered by Spanish explorers on the coast of what would come to be known as Latin America). It contains Native American recipes, New Mexican recipes, Texan recipes, and then a whole lot of regional American variations.
I made one last night that I'm just trying today, now that the flavors have melded overnight. It's a classic Texas "Bowl of Red" style recipe, with no peppers in it stronger than ancho, and otherwise just paprika. It was still spicy enough to cause the wife to load it down with sour cream though, because it uses a whole two ounces of ancho in the pot. Of course you can always add more of whatever you want, as I always say when talking about recipes.
Happy St. Patrick’s Day
In honor of the day, and since many of us are looking for new reading material, how about an introduction to an Irish hero of Robert E. Howard’s? For those of you who prefer Vikings, he sails with a crew of Danish pirates. For those who prefer Arthurian stories, the timeframe is supposed to be during the reign of Arthur.
It’s not Howard’s greatest work all the same; it’s more like the drive-in movie Sword & Sorcery films than like the great ones. It will definitely bother you insofar as you are a stickler for historical accuracy. But they’re fun tales if you have read all the Conan stories and want something Irish for the day.
UPDATE: The Dropkick Murphys are doing a free online concert tonight in place of their annual St. Patrick's Day show. If you're interested, it starts at 1900 Romeo, i.e., 7 PM Boston time.
It’s not Howard’s greatest work all the same; it’s more like the drive-in movie Sword & Sorcery films than like the great ones. It will definitely bother you insofar as you are a stickler for historical accuracy. But they’re fun tales if you have read all the Conan stories and want something Irish for the day.
UPDATE: The Dropkick Murphys are doing a free online concert tonight in place of their annual St. Patrick's Day show. If you're interested, it starts at 1900 Romeo, i.e., 7 PM Boston time.
The End of the Russian Part of the Russian Saga
Prosecutors abandon trying to prove that the Mueller-indicted Russians were guilty of the alleged crimes. The Russians were eager to contest the charges and demanded their day in court rapidly. The US government delayed and delayed, and now has decided to drop the prosecution.
The US has already abandoned the claim in open court that the Russian government had anything to do with the indicted Russians.
The US has already abandoned the claim in open court that the Russian government had anything to do with the indicted Russians.
Universal Basic Income
In the end, it wasn't Andrew Yang or Bernie Sanders, but Mitt Romney who seems most likely to bring UBI to America.
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