Doc

Doc Russia Needs You:

Well, some of you. Seems the gentleman is having a hard time of it at his new station -- far from home, far from his beloved wife, and the duty is rough too.

Unfortunately, the scoundrels who frequent Doc's place are unsympathetic:

1. Moriarty made this comment,

"I got puked on something good and proper by a patient."
Congratulations! *Now* you're a doctor.
;-)

...

5. Grim made this comment,

Just wait until you're a father. Then you'll get puked on every night for a year.

Perhaps some of our gentler readers might want to drop by and give Doc some encouragement.

The Purges Continue

The Purges Will Continue:

The Commissar has an interesting post on the subject of how the anti-Lieberman campaign reminds him of the leftist infighting in the Spanish Civil War. I noted in the comments:

A fine professor I once had, a self-described socialist, said that this pattern appears in all “democratically oriented revolutions” (by which he meant Jacobin revolutions and other leftist events, rather than republic-oriented revolutions of the American and British type). I assume there is a body of leftist scholarship on the subject, he seemed so confident in his assertion. Indeed, he was and is a fine scholar, however foolish the politics to which he subscribes, so I don’t doubt that the body of scholarship not only exists, but is fairly well-founded.

The idea, as I recall, is that the initial success of the revolution leads to the establishment of a class of revolutionaries who find — wonder of wonders — that they don’t actually agree. So, they begin to restrict control to smaller and smaller circles, with those left in the outer circles exercising less and less control, and finally being the controlled instead.

A student of Soviet history such as yourself won’t need elaboration to see how this applies there, but it apparently is usual for these sorts of events, starting with the French revolution. Purges of the impure are to be expected in “people power” revolutions.

The difference here is only that the “initial success” of the Kossack revolution was just in building an online community. They never actually had any real-world success. They seem, however, to have gotten right on to the purges.

I think the reason you don’t see this set of events in the Anglospheric model of revolution is the focus on federalism and traditional freedoms. The problem with “democratic” revolutions is that they wish to assert a single correct solution, which is to be binding on everyone — that’s why it is so important to purge the impure. We must all live by the same law, so it must be the correct law.

The idea that the state can include spheres of influence not directly under the sway of the central government is a profoundly radical idea — the existence of states that have real rights, religious institutions that the central government may not regulate, etc. Yet those radical, free institutions provide a space for people with different preferences to each have (at least most of) their way. As a result, classical liberal revolutions do not lead to the cycles of purges, but rather to the unsatisfied minority turning its attention to local politics when it fails to control the federal politics.
The Democratic Party is apparently collapsing along these lines. I'm not sure why, but consider the comment by "West" at Captain's Quarters. They had run an anti-Lieberman sneer, and he responds:
I live in CT. Registered Independent, vote mostly Republican at the federal level. I will sign petitions, etc., and vote for Joe, not because I like his politics, but because I respect his integrity. You don't get much of that these days. In some ways, Joe could be viewed as he liberal counterpart to Zell Miller. He did not leave the party, the party left him.
It was the same party.

Once it had room for both of them, and others besides. A few years ago it moved to run out the Zell Millers, and prevent traditional Southern Democrats from being able to support the national platform. Now, it's moving on genuine liberals like Lieberman.

For a point of comparison: David Brooks mentioned that Lieberman's "Christian Coalition" rating was 0. I looked up Zell Miller's. It was the full 100.

In the American system, a party which can maintain that kind of real diversity is strong. The Democratic Party had room for serious disagreement on the kinds of social issues the Christian Coalition cares about, not that long ago. Now, even the zeros are being attacked if they don't heave-to on every other issue.

I suspect that the self-destruction will spin off into two separate events. The internal disintegration of the Kossacks will continue. Within the Democratic Party as a whole, however, the next group to be purged will be the Kossacks themselves. The practical politicians will recognize the destruction that these people are bringing to bear on their electoral power, and with it their fundraising capabilities (which are largely based on the ability to deliver actual results, which requires actual power).

How long will it take for that round of purges to get here? I doubt they'll be in time for November.

The Best Defense

Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution states:
Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.
In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.

I read in the news that there is discussion in Japan on re-interpreting their self-defense clause to allow a pre-emptive strike on North Korean launch sites.

The best defense has always been a good offense.

Bill Faith virgins

Bill Faith...

...and the Virgins of Paradise.

History and Story-telling

History and Story-telling
[This post is a slightly-edited verson of something posted elsewhere. The novel which helped ignite this train of thought was I, Claudius, written by Robert Graves.]

One of the books I've been reading and commenting about is a work of fiction which tries to present itself as history.

This book raises several questions in my mind.

Robert Graves wrote his book in a way that made it hard to distinguish from translations of actual 1st-Century Roman writings. The bare factual outline of the story is hard to dispute: the succession of the first four Caesers (Augustus, Tiberius, Caligula, Claudius); the death/banishment of many members of the Imperial family; the military victories of the armies of Augustus; the position of lowly Sejanus during Tiberius' years on the isle of Capri; the uneasy stasis between Tiberius' armies and the Germanic tribes; the madness of Caligula. All of these things are attested to in at least one ancient source.

Yet the tale that Graves weaves around these events isn't strictly history. Part conjecture, part prejudicial reading of the available data, this story places blame heavily on certain characters, and absolves or exonerates others. The tales of political intrigue within the complicated familial connections of the Julio-Claudian dynasty are told with a particular slant in mind.

I don't know if I agree or disagree with Graves--the details are too distant, and the crimes seem too unimportant. History has moved on; the vast Empire that was claimed by the power-struggles has crumbled.

But the methods Graves used to arrive at his conclusions and weave his story are methods that are regularly used by historians.

Historians often work with more information than they can present to their audience. Some of the data are from doubtful sources; some of them are widely-known but poorly sourced; some of them are indisputably true. The historian selects these items and arranges his historical rendition around them.

It is simple to say that good historians select only obviously true information and discard the rest. It is too simple: the set of obviously true facts doesn't contain all of the historical data. The historian may have three good sources about Caligula's military campaigns at the northern edge of the Empire. But if they all disagree about the sequence of events and the trail of the campaign, which one is dependable?

Also, facts by themselves don't assemble into history by themselves. The information needs a story to bind them together. Is it a story about the madness of an Emporer who thought he was divine? Is it a story about an army that was sent out without a clear objective or strategy? Is it a story about generals playing politics while politicians played generals?

So the historian often fits the information into a framework--a story--that helps him figure out what the information means. (Of course, scrupulous historians pay a great deal of attention to the information itself, and to its pedigree of trustworthiness. But even that process has subtle interactions with the pre-existing story.) This inner meaning puts some of the information at the forefront, and reduces other information to irrelevance.

Historians also must deal with a different problem. Sometimes, an event will be known to have happened, but the direct cause of the event can't be determined. Many members of the Imperial family died of poisoning: the perpetrator in most of these cases is unknown, as is the motivation.

How does a historian tell that story? Does he invent a plausible story to fill in the blanks in his knowledge? Does he pick the most plausible explanation advanced by contemporaries? Or does he say that he does not know why this event happened? If he uses speculation, does he warn his readers which part of his history is speculation and which is known fact?

I suspect that these processes are also used by other people (non-historians) on an everyday basis. When a person hears information about the world that is outside of their direct experience, they compare the new information to a story about that subject that already exists in their minds. If the information doesn't fit the story well, some accomodation must be made. Either the information is suspect or the story is suspect. The story, if suspect, may need extension, revision, or a complete rebuilding.

Revision of this pre-existing story is much less drastic than rebuilding from scratch. Extension is less drastic than either, although extension and revision are not always distinct.

This process looks simple at first, but can quickly take on confusing complexity. The story isn't constant. Every time information is added or rejected, the story's structure has to change a little bit to explain why.

Other examples from ancient history can be found. Did the end of the Roman Empire occur when it was split into Eastern and Western halves? What about when Rome was sacked? What about the fall of Byzantium? Each one represented a diminution of the power and prestige of Rome. Each event is important in the decline and fall of the Empire.

What about the difference between Medieval Culture and Renaissance Culture in European history? Medieval culture is often defined by its focus on religious thought. The Renaissance culture is described as based on humanistic thought and making heavy use of the rediscovered literature of Rome and Greece.

The greatest poet of Medieval Europe was Dante; his Divine Comedy is peppered with mentions of people and stories from Classical times. Plato and Aristotle (as well as legendary characters like Aeneas and villains like Brutus), appear in Dante's Inferno. The greatest religious scholar of Medieval times was Thomas Aquinas; yet Aquinas read and commented heavily on Aristotle. Classical literature was not unknown during that time. The growth of humanistic thought is probably measurable, but the beginning of the Renaissance is still hard to pinpoint. The historian who tries to draw such a line must depend on a story--usually the growth of challenges to Church authority, the growth of natural philosophy and the sciences, or the growth of voyages of exploration--to help him define where the dividing line should be put.

Examples of overarching stories that define how history is told abound in the political history of the past few centuries. Ask a Marxist disciple about that history, and he will tell you it is a story about class warfare and the exploitation of the laborers. Ask a trans-nationalist progressive about history, and he will tell you about the rise of international institutions which overshadow the dominant nation-states of the world. Ask an American of the Jacksonian tradition, and he will tell a story of America trying to deal honorably with the world--and of America needing to send her soldiers to deal with various enemies around the globe.

This is not to say that none of these stories are truthful, or that all have equal validity. Some of these stories are more trustworthy when used for predictions. Some of these stores produce a need for large conspiracies that beg for the application of Occam's Razor.

When Cuba became a Socialist Worker's Paradise, what happened to its agriculture and economy? Before the Revolution, Cuba was home to a significant number of tractors and other mechanized farming tools. At that time, the street-markets were awash with lemons and oranges, among other products of agriculture. Today, most of the farm work is done by hand and oranges are reputedly rare. Starvation is an ever-present worry. As a more important question, why weren't people getting in rafts to go from oppressive capitalist America to Worker's Paradise in Cuba?

(I have my explanation, which is that "Worker's Paradise" does not describe what was and is going on in Cuba. Likewise for "oppressive capitalism" and America.)

Which returns me to revision of the Big Story, the meta-narrative that I use to analyze history. I don't want to change my version of the story at the drop of a hat. But I also don't want to keep a bad or unusable version of the story. I suspect that I'll continue doing what I've been doing for some time: analyzing incoming data for information that looks discordant with the meta-narrative that I am analyzing it with. I will then test the data to see if it is trustworthy, as well as testing my meta-narrative to see how trustworthy it is. I try to make the overall story, the meta-narrative, more robust as I go on. Generally, this method is successful.

Most of the time, this process goes on without too much conscious thought. Sometimes, it requires a great deal of thought. Occasionally, it produces vociferous disagreement with people who use a different story to define and analyze the information that they come across.

Sometimes, the disagreement is about whether scientific study precludes religious belief; sometimes the disagreement is about the guilt or innocence of soldiers charged with war crimes; sometimes the disagreement is about the necessity of higher mathematics in college curricula; sometimes the disagreement is about the choice of a candidate to vote for; sometimes the discussion is about the definition of "sensible gun laws".

But now, every time I enter into such a discussion, I come fore-armed with the knowledge that the disagreement is probably not about data--it is about the interpretation of which data is important, and why the data is important.

The hard part is convincing the other participants in the discussion that they may need to re-evaluate the story they use to analyze and interpret the data at hand.

Place bets DPRK

Place Your Bets:

The line on North Korea is now available.

Chuck Z Liberia

Military Science, Gangsta Style:

Chuck Z gives us the lessons from Liberia. I'm trying not to laugh, Chuck, and it's not working. Dude brought a feather-duster to a firefight?

Old War Dogs

Old War Dogs:

I've had the honor of guest-blogging alongside Bill Faith, at Mudville back when Greyhawk went off to war. Bill's opened a new blog for older veterans, called Old War Dogs. "Rurik," a Grim's Hall reader and friend of the blog, is one of Bill's new co-bloggers. It's a pretty impressive crew, in fact, as George writes:

Bill Faith of Small Town Veteran, Steve Gardner, "the Tenth Brother" (ask John "Magic Hat" Kerry if you don't remember what that means), Russ Vaughn the Poetrooper, and several other angry hounds, including 1st Cav Page, Gene "Blood-n-Fire" Harrison, John Werntz, proven bloggers Zero Ponsdorf and Jim Bartimus, and myself, Rurik.

Each of us is a military veteran, each with opinions founded on experience. Between us I believe we have 3 CIBs, 2 Navy Combat Action Awards, 1 Purple Heart, 2 Bronze Stars, an Air Medal, an Army Commendation Medal, 2 Croix de Guerres with palms, and lots of other awards. One is an emeritus Ivy League professor, and another a published commercial author. Not too bad for nine old dudes. Enough to justify an opinion or two?
Just having Russ Vaughn on board is a coup. I'd be glad to have him blog here, even if it were just to post his poems (which I always mean to do, but only sometimes get around to doing). They've got him, and several other good writers and thinkers besides.

You might want to check them out.

Heh-heh-heh

Heh-heh-heh:

If IANSA isn't happy, I'm happy.

But Rebecca Peters of the London-based International Action Network on Small Arms accused governments of letting a few states "hold them all hostage and to derail any plans which might have brought any improvements in this global crisis."
Well done, then. Anything that makes Ms. Peters frustrated in her professional capacity is a thing I'm glad to see. Odd list of allies this time, though:
IANSA identified the main players blocking agreement as Cuba, India, Iran, Pakistan and Russia. Other gun control activists named China, Egypt and Venezuela as well.
I'm not accustomed to seeing my interests line up with Venezuela's and Iran's. We'll need to look into that, after the party.

Still, I'm glad to see my letters got there all right:
The meeting was dogged from the start by zealous members of the U.S. National Rifle Association, who flooded the United Nations with letters falsely accusing it of secretly plotting to take away Americans' guns on July 4, a U.N. holiday marking U.S. Independence Day when delegates did not meet.
This is a news story, right? Not an editorial? Which part was false? That they were meeting the week of Independence Day? No, they were, and the fact that they didn't hold formal talks on that one day hardly means there were no meetings or conversations going on behind the scenes.

That they were plotting to take away America's gun rights? No, that part was true too. Ms. Peters said so herself.
I think American citizens should not be exempt from the rules that apply to the rest of the world. At the moment there are no rules applying to the rest of the world. That’s what we’re working for.

American citizens should have guns that are suitable for the legitimate purposes that they can prove.

I think that eventually Americans will realize that their obsession with arming themselves in fear, in a paranoid belief that they’re going to be able to stave off the ills of the world through owning guns, through turning every house into an arsenal, eventually Americans will go away from that.

I think Americans who hunt—and who prove that they can hunt—should have single-shot rifles suitable for hunting whatever they’re hunting. I mean American citizens should be like any other citizens of the world.
So -- if you can prove (to Ms. Peters and her ilk) that you have a legitimate purpose, she thinks it might be proper for you to have a single-shot rifle (suitable for hunting). But the Second Amendment has to go -- Americans must live under the same rules as the rest of the world. Rules she wants to write. Yet, of course, it is a fearful-paranoid-false-accusation to say that... well, to tell the truth about what she herself says she wants.

If I said I thought "the rest of the world should live under the same laws as Americans," that would be jingoistic Cowboy-speak. Reverse the formula -- "America must live by the same rules as the rest of the world" -- and it's progressive wisdom.

Not on Independence Day. That's what "Independence" means.

Molon Labe. Remember the Spartans? Remember the Alamo?

I do.

BACK TO IRAQ.

BACK TO IRAQ.

Soon I will be leaving our fair shores to return to Iraq. Consequently, I will be taking a hiatus from all blogging activity for sometime. However, I do hope to resume posting upon my return. In the meantime I am sure that my co-bloggers will continue the good fight for freedom.

Semper Fi.

21 yr brk

An End To Rest:

Our friends at Military.com, who sponsored so much of I MBC, have a great story today. It treats the story of New York City Police Detective Evan L. "Pappy" Schwerner, who recently rejoined his Marines following a short twenty-one year break. Well, who doesn't need a break now and then?

I'm sure the Marines around here will be only too glad to say, "Welcome home, Corporal... that is, Pappy."

NORTHCOM DPRK Missiles

NORTHCOM Speaks:

The Northern Command has said that they were good to go for intercept, but determined there was no need. It's good to know that NORTHCOM detected all the launches, and it's good that they didn't say exactly how they did.

Just what is going on here?

According to Reuters, the AP, CNN and Fox, North Korea actually test fired that ding-dong missle of theirs. It appears to have "failed".

But other missles were fired, too.

Like, 5 or 6 in all.

In a two hour period.

All the accounts above are just slightly different.

I'm wondering if that Taepodong-2 missle was in fact, shot down, and the other missles were a response to that.

A battle may just have occurred.

Bookies are cheap

Bookies are Cheapskates:

Australian bookies are paying $201 on Bush to win the Nobel Prize this year. Given the nature of the Nobel committee, I'd have to say that a thousand-to-one would be ripping people off. $201 is shameless.

Roundup

Roundup:

Quite a few excellent posts today. MilBlogs has a good running tally, but here are some I noticed:

Cassidy writes about love songs.

The Geek has posted his starry flag on high.

Mudville has posts old and new on the subject of the celebrations worldwide, wherever American servicemen tred.

Laughing Wolf at BlackFive has reposted the Declaration of Independence. However often you've read it, read it again.

Sharp Knife

Sharp Knife:

Normally one can count on Noel for a powerful post on Independence Day. I trust he is delayed by some honorable purpose. In any event, if you missed his Flag Day meditation, it's worth a look today.

Scorpions

Scorpions & Independence Day:

I recall that, just prior to the invasion of Afghanistan, there was an interview with a Talib who impressed the Western journalist by conducting the interview while smoking scorpions. This was meant to be terrifying -- after all, how tough would you have to be to smoke a scorpion?

A few years later, we have our answer:

A discerning guest at a Manhattan cocktail party removed a scorpion from its bed of cheese atop an endive leaf and popped it in his mouth, determined to savor the taste unadulterated.

"Nutty, sweet," was the verdict of Gourmet magazine food editor Ian Knauer at the recent soiree.
See? Even the sort of American who attends "soirees" can munch a scorpion, then give you a critique of its flavor to boot.

Plus, a lot of Americans are descended from Scots, where there was that... well, read it for yourself.

Happy Independence Day. Remember the example of Little Bill, and don't take guff from anyone today.
Hedging your bets department:

Sentator Joseph Lieberman, (Democrat from Connecticut) has announced that he's going to gather signatures for a petition to run as a write in candidate for Senate 'just in case' he loses the Democratic primary.

Plenty of people are not happy with him.

I suppose I shouldn't be surprised at the Senator's decision, really. I mean, he simultaneously ran for Senator and Vice President in 2000.

But what is interesting here is how Lieberman, who has been vilified by the anti-war wing of the Democratic party, is setting fire to his bridges behind him.

I can't imagine that the DNC is happy with this.

So, either the Senator wins his primary, in which case its 'business as normal' sorta/kinda/maybe, or he loses the primary, which sets up a three way contest in which the Senator, by splitting the Democratic vote (assuming that he really does split the vote), may actually give the contest to the Republican candidate.

I'm sure that the RNC is hoping for the latter, but of course, we'll have to wait and see.

I think Bush Derangement Syndrome has just given rise to Lieberman Derangement Syndrome.

(via Memorandum)
Big problems in that chain of command.

The BBC has more on the incident in Mahmoudiya, Iraq in March:
A former US soldier has been arrested and charged with killing four Iraqi civilians after raping one of them, the US Justice Department said.

This is a pretty ugly incident if the guy's squadmates were involved, as is reported in this article from the Army Times.

The Army Times' article reports that:
The affidavit, filed by FBI special agent Gregor J. Ahlers of Louisville, said Green and three other soldiers from the 101st’s 502nd Infantry Regiment were working a traffic checkpoint in Mahmoudiya on March 12 when they conspired to rape a woman who lived nearby.

Which implies to me that a squad team leader is involved, because somebody had to be incharge of that traffic checkpoint.

So the soldier charged was a PFC and was discharged for having a 'personality disorder', which means he had to have been a 'problem child' even before this happened. Now, I can see one crazy guy going off and doing this. But an entire fireteam? There is something wrong in that chain of command.

What a mess this is going to be.

A kind word for KOS

A Kind Word for Kos:

Southern Appeal noticed this diary on Daily KOS, a hate-filled diatribe against the South and Southerners. It is not the first, and doubtless will not be the last, so I was prepared to write it off in that spirit. I hadn't intended to comment on it at all.

The only reason I'm going to do so is the follow-up post at the author's homepage noting that Kos and company had run him off ("like Saint Patrick casting away the snakes," in the author's own words). He has words for Kos in the same spirit as his earlier words for the South, but leave off what he has to say; it doesn't matter.

What does matter is that this was an act of decency by Kos, from whom I had not expected one. It is noted and appreciated.