Grim's Hall

NIS

National Intelligence Strategy:

The new National Intelligence Strategy is out. It's the first major product by the new "National Intelligence Director" (NID), currently James Negroponte. I was always opposed to the creation of an "intel czar," and now I remember why.

This thirty-two page document is one of those corporate creations that Dilbert founded its success on mocking. You can tell that every word was negotiated at length in committee. And what did all that negotiation produce?

Our Vision -- What we will become:
A unified enterprise of innovative intelligence professionals whose common purpose in defending American lives and interests, and advancing American values, draws strength from our democratic institutions, diversity, and intellectual and technological prowess.

Most of this is a corp-speak description of what an intel agency does. However, deciphering the corporate code, we find that there are three pieces of information contained there which show what will be changing, and what will not:

1) From "unified enterprise" and "common purpose": The NID actually intends to unify the intel services. Since that was his job, this is not surprising.

2) From the specific inclusion of "diversity": Stripping away the political correctness that has bedeviled these organizations will not be a priority. It's too hard, and too deeply set.

3) From "advancing American values" and "draws strength from our democratic institutions" -- Negropont is doing just what Bush sent him to do, which is to snap the intel services to heel from an ideological standpoint. The CIA in particular has been an ideological enemy of the President and his policies. This signals that all "intelligence professionals" will be required to share "American values," including the promotion of democracy as a core concern.

Point three is, I gather, the main purpose of this document. It is job one under "Our Mission," with the relevant codewords highlighted:

Collect, analyze, and disseminate accurate, timely, and objective intelligence, independent of political considerations, to the President and all who make and implement US national security policy, fight our wars, protect our nation, and enforce our laws.

The first few words there, again, are a description of what an intel service does. Yet then there is the mention of "political considerations," which must not be allowed to influence intelligence; and the mention of 'the President and those who make our policy,' to remind the intel services that they don't get to do that.

Reviewing the recent history of CIA leaks, particularly of pessimistic or negative intelligence estimates, and particularly during last year's election cycle, I can see why the President thinks this is a desirable thing to do.

Enforcing ideological conformity among intelligence officers, however, is not a good idea. It is an idea with a history, and the history is not pretty.

Jimmy Carter put Admiral Stansfield Turner in charge of the CIA during his tenure. Turner had an ideological thing against covert and clandestine operations. He felt like a lot of human intelligence operations were immoral (which is absolutely true), and that the United States of America should never do anything that was plainly immoral (which, sadly, can't be true in the area of intelligence). As a result, he essentially scrapped the CIA's capability to carry out these ops, and focused on signals intelligence instead.

Didn't work out too well, did it? But we were in luck: Turner was only in charge of the CIA. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) retained a lot of capabilities that the CIA lost. We still lost a lot: intel networks take years, sometimes even decades to bring to full fruition. When one is cut off and withers, it cannot be replaced right away. Clandestine service intelligence professionals (i.e., spies), though they are at best amoral and often immoral, possess a lifetime of valuable knowledge of the lay of a political landscape, the important figures within it, and personal connections that let them penetrate that landscape and learn where pressure ought to be applied to get results. They are a necessary evil, and one that takes years to develop.

What happens if we get a bad NID now? DIA is going to be forced to conform just like CIA will. If there's another Stansfield Turner down the road, we could wreck our whole intelligence apparatus at a blow -- and the tool for doing it, the precedent that allows the NID to insist on ideological conformity, is now forged.

In addition the danger to covert and clandestine networks, the analysis part of intelligence work above all requires genuine intellectual diversity. That, as we know from education, is the one type of diversity that is not meant when the word "diversity" is included in a document of this type. You need people with a fully developed opinion counter to yours, even if you're right and they are wrong, to keep you honest and keep you from getting lazy. You need the challenge.

Consider this debate at Winds of Change, on the subject of whether democracy promotion will in fact reduce terrorism. That's a healthy debate. I side with the pro-democracy argument, but it is clear that an argument is still required, and evidence is yet to be gathered that will inform the argument.

The NIS short-circuits the argument entirely. Democracy promotion is the #3 "strategic objective." If an analyst wants to argue that, in a particular country for particular reasons, it may not be wise to back an apparently democratic movement (e.g., as it turned out not to be wise to back Castro in Cuba), he will now face a substantial risk to his career. He may, in fact, leave "the company" altogether. While he may be wrong most of the time, he may be right on this one occasion. Even if he isn't right, his presence makes the other analysts work harder getting their facts and getting them straight. He's the mark of a healthy intel service, even if he hates the President's guts and is utterly opposed to the policies being put forward -- whoever the President might be.

Again, I can understand why this particular President feels like this is a necessary step. Nevertheless, I think both the NID concept, and this NIS, are extremely unwise.

Two final, unrelated points:

1) The focus of the NIS on asymmetrical threats ignores real symmetrical threats, which could easily be as or more dangerous than any terrorist organization.

Job #1 is counter-terrorism. Job #2 is anti-WMD. Job #3 is democracy promotion. Yet isn't one of the biggest intel threats and challenges China? China isn't a terrorist nation or a terror-supporter; they're happy to prevent the spread of WMD (having foremost in their minds the examples of Taiwan and Japan); and democracy promotion in China, though a worthwhile goal, doesn't really get at the particular nature of the threat posed by China. The place where we need to be building intel assets in China isn't inside its democracy movements, but inside the navy. That's where we will get any forewarning of an invasion of Taiwan.

2) It's good that "the protection of privacy and civil liberties" is mentioned in the strategy. But absent, so far as I can see, is any call for a robust declassification process for information that no longer needs to be secret. The best defense against intelligence services' capability to do evil is sunshine. Of course, sunshine makes it impossible for them to do good as well, so it has to be applied judiciously. When we can, however, we who are citizens of the Republic ought to know what our government has been doing with its secret forces. That is a critical need for the long-term health of the Republic in my opinion, and it deserves more attention.

Const.

The USS Constellation

While doing some research on modern Sigma-class corvettes, I came across this site which treats the "restoration" of the USS Constellation, in Baltimore harbor. I've seen her, but was not aware of the history behind the ship.

During 1852-53 the old 38-gun frigate USS Constellation, a contemporary of USS Constitution, was broken up at Gosport (Norfolk), VA. At the same time, in the same yard, a new 22-gun sloop-of-war was constructed, and was given the old frigate's name. This new vessel was commissioned in 1855. To get around a Congressional prohibition on new ship construction, the new sloop-of-war was considered a "repair" of the old frigate, but she was actually a new ship.

In 1956 the sloop-of-war, by then aged and deteriorated, was donated to a museum group in Baltimore. This group wished to portray the ship as the 1797 frigate, not the 1855 sloop, so they "restored" her by cutting away bulwarks and decks. This weakened her hull structure, and contributed to her eventually [sic] deterioration.

Apparently the restoration included cutting gunports into her bulwarks, so she would look more like what we think of as an "age of sail" fighting ship. The photographs show the process of restoring the "restored" ship, and getting her back out on the water.

Well, she may not be what she's been made out to be, but she cuts a fine figure. Pity, though: an 1855 sloop-of-war would have been a good display piece also, and a better teaching tool. Few people today realize how small and poorly-equipped the US Navy was at that point. Yet, within ten years, it had grown to such a size as to be able to conduct a massive naval blockade that eventually closed every port of the Confederate States of America.

The CSA helped out a bit, by making a notable error: it chose to forgo the purchase of a fleet of ready-made warships that the British had to offer, instead spending the monies it had on the construction of a few modern raiders, such as the infamous USS Alabama. If they'd taken the British up on their offer, they might have been the ones with the momentum to stage a naval blockade. The US Navy, in 1861, was in no shape to stop one.

Anyway, have a look.

Withdrawal

A Political Victory:

Harriet Miers withdrew today. I wish her well, and do truly regret that this whole episode was necessary. May she find that the rest of her career is rewarding and successful.

When the president makes his next selection, I hope he will be guided by the lessons learned here. Certainly enough has been written about this nomination to provide a full guide to what a nominee ought to provide. The Court, and the Republic, deserves no less.

Monument3

Monuments:

Captain Tyler Swisher, commanding Easy company. He has one of those biographies that remind you what is great about America. He had quite a few hardships and obstacles he was born with, but it never stopped him. Through hard work and devotion he gained an education, rank, and a position of high honor.

Corporal Benny Gray Cockerham III. JHD knew him, so I will let him say what ought to be said.

Lance Corporal Kenneth James Butler. He was a bullrider.

Duct Tape

If You Can't Duct It...

I broke my toe about a week ago, and have been hobbling around ever since. Actually, I can walk pretty well, as long as (a) I duct-tape the broken toe to the toe next to it, and (b) don't walk too fast. Today, a week or so on, I decided to try going without the duct tape, but it didn't go too well.

In tribute, then, I offer Duct Tape Uses and Duct Tape fashions as a guide to other things you can do with the stuff. It's just real handy.

GH

Two from Greyhawk:

Hawk has a post today about an organization of particularly admirable women in Iraq. I can't express my pleasure at having read of their adventures.

He also has a helpful suggestion for shrinking the OODA loop.

4th rail

The 4th Rail:

My colleague and friend, Bill Roggio of the 4th Rail, is heading to Iraq to embed with a Marine unit. He would appreciate your support in making it happen.

I've enjoyed working with Bill, and I think we've all been impressed with his work at the 4th Rail: he has really hit his stride this autumn, and has been producing some of the best writing on Iraq out there. Good hunting, Bill.

Two More

And Two More:

2/2's Warlords lost two more on Friday. The names are now being released.

Lance Corporal Kenneth J. Butler.

US Navy corpsman Petty Officer Chris Thompson.

"I can't let my Marines go without me," Chris Thompson, 25, told his father, just before shipping out on his second combat tour. "I take care of them."

His brother David is also a Navy corpsman assigned to Marines. There's a family I'd be proud to know.

M&W

Men, Women, And Why You Should Not Worry:

Glenn Reynolds links to another post on the topic that seems to be causing a constant fret among blogosphere academics, the Men/Women ratio at college. The post is by Ginny at Chicagoboyz, and treats her thoughts and experiences in dealing with young men and women.

The lady has some good thoughts, and I think she even backs into the answer to the problem that concerns her. Unhappily, being overly concerned with people's feelings, she doesn't recognize the solution when she strikes it. That more or less captures the entire business.

After describing herself as "quiet and embarrassed" over a dispute with a colleague on the question, she then reflects that "anger speaking is seldom thought speaking." Her "gut-level anger is also from mothering," which gives rise to fears that her own sons will be distorted by being taught that they are oppressors of women [UPDATE: or possibly that her daughters will be bent by believing men are their enemies?]. She thinks that famed blogosphere psychologist Dr. Helen "is right to draw our attention to this, to worry us with it." And then she proceeds to worry a lot more.

As does Dr. Helen. There, and here also, in spite of some very sharp comments that ought to assuage the concern.

Well, don't worry. Men are pretty good at sorting out problems. It's what we do.

For example, you shouldn't worry -- as she does -- that "The twenty-first century, like the nineteenth, may lead to an even more intense feminization of American culture." Let's examine that for a moment.

When you think of the 19th century, what do you think of? There are some notably feminine images: Queen Victoria, the suffrage movement, the temperance movement. That's about it, though, right? Maybe a few poets and writers?

Queen Victoria was no problem for men. Quite the opposite. Victoria presided over a great masculine reawakening in England, in which art and poetry and literature were joined to engineering and warfighting. The image of the youthful Queen, thrust suddenly into the perils of power, caused the whole nation to remember the King, Arthur, and to take up the sword he cast away. The writings of Lord Tennyson are some of the highest expressions of what men are and ought to be: and they came right out of this dynamic.

The suffrage and temperance movements were certainly problematic for men, who were beaten about the heads by them for half a century. Still, in time they ran their course; women still vote, but beer is back on the shelves. Men survived.

The rest of the 19th century is a great masculine canvas. We remember the Kate Chopins, but only because they were women. The great writers of the 19th Century, with the possible exception of Jane Austen, were all men: Herman Melville, Mark Twain, Sir Walter Scott, Tennyson and Lord Byron, the writers and poets who can stand on their own are almost exclusively men. And that's in the very temple of the female empire of the modern academy, literature. Take any other field of human endeavour, and see where the women are. The 19th century was a grand adventure of engineering, war, travel, thought, and right at the forefront were men in every case.

Is it really any different today? How many of the great bloggers are women, even with women making up the grand majority of students of writing and literature? How many bioengineers are women, as we stand poised on the start of a new adventure? How many soldiers, as we look towards decades of trying to keep and extend the peace and the order of the West? How many police officers, with terrorism and smuggling the two great concerns of the day?

More, certainly, than in the 19th century. We have made room for women. More than that -- we actively encourage and support them. We are glad to have them along. Some of them, the best of them, stand equal with any of us. I myself don't know what I would do without two of the three most important people in my life, my wife and Sovay. Both are women, and quite remarkable ones.

Yet we are told we ought to worry because a lot more women are getting degrees in literature, psychology, sociology, and the like. If I spare a moment to worry about this, I'll worry about the women. Good luck to them: but it sounds like they're being set up to spend their lives not making much of a difference in the world around them.

If the 19th century is the model, it is the century that saw the foundation of the Texas Rangers and the gambling of Doc Holliday, the great British adventures in India and Afghanistan, the end of slavery on the high seas, the Civil War, and the rise of Teddy Roosevelt. If the 21st century does as much for muscular masculinity as the 19th, we'll be in fine shape indeed.

Ginny backs into this answer at several points, but never quite seems to realize it. She mentions the winning of the West. She hits the answer full on right here:

I suspect they will find other worlds to conquer – and if they have to learn something to get there, they will teach themselves. And, because they want to make money and women want them to make money, our system may be changed in ways that by-pass an increasingly hostile establishment.

That should have been the moment that this whole train of thought went roaring off White Oak mountain. That's exactly right. Society, and the market, will adjust itself -- and men will meet them halfway. They'll learn what they need to know to be where they need to be. If the great concerns of the new century are terrorism, homeland defense, technology and engineering, guess who will be there filling the largest part of the critical roles? The most dangerous jobs, which will consequently -- and increasingly -- command greater and greater respect and pay? The movement is already on: Border Patrol Agents, for example, have in the last few years received an increase in their maximum rate of pay to the GS-11 level. The military has seen one pay raise after another, as the volunteer military tries to compete with the market for manpower. Both jobs increasingly involve academic pursuits, even if they don't involve formal college: second (and subsequent) languages, studies in regional history and cultural awareness. It used to be that every man, however poorly schooled, knew how to mix black powder and pour bullets out of liquid lead. Now, it may be that men who don't go much beyond high school can still speak several languages and know the internal structures of a number of local tribes. If men turn less often to the old institutions for education, they will still be out there learning whatever they need to know.

It may be, in other words, that it is the institutions that are becoming obsolete -- not the men. That's a problem for someone, but I don't see why it should be a problem for men. It seems to me like a problem for those people -- say, women -- who are increasingly attaching their hopes to a foundering social institution. The liberal arts college is not necessarily the best place to learn even the liberal arts, anymore. It's certainly not the best place to get a classical education. The Marine Corps reading list will introduce you to many of the great classics of literature, and they'll teach you discipline and manners and the school of arms, too. If you're an officer, you'll spend half your life in schools of one type or another. You want to be a man like Washington or Robert E. Lee, Roosevelt or Jefferson? Join the military.

I think there is no cause for concern. Let as many women go to college as wish to do so. Good on them! Good luck to them! It does not hurt us men at all. We have our own concerns, and our own adventures, and let each man choose his according to his best hopes and abilities.

2/2

Monuments:

All too soon, Grim's Hall must again join the families of the 2/2 Marines in mourning the deaths of fighting men.

Staff Sergeant Rick Pummill.

Lance Corporal Andrew David Russoli.

Lance Corporal Steve Szwydek.

Also, JHD sends a link to a monument of his own:

I did a small tribute to the Beirut Marines we lost in 83. And yeah, I KNOW is was Oct 23 and not the 22 but they were 8 hours ahead. We had just pulled into the Charleston Harbor from our successful run to supply Beirut when we got the news. It was around 2200 on the 22nd so I always mark that time and date. I received three e-mails telling me I had the wrong date.

May the next world be a better place for these men. Yet if it is not, I imagine they will set about making it so.

An armed society isn't always a polite society. Example: Brazil.

But even so, Brazilians appear to recognize that if you outlaw guns, then only the criminals will have them. So, it seems that a referendum to ban gun sales to citizens has been defeated.

Something to be said for the wisdom crowds, I gather.

USMC Monument

We Are Reminded:

That is the purpose of monuments, such as this one at the head of Forsyth Park, down in Savannah, Georgia. The tag to the photo notes that the monument was laid in 1947, to honor Marine Corps dead from Chatham County. What it does not note -- a remarkable omission -- is that the monument has become a tomb.

There was a time in my life when I knew the sergeant's name by heart, but I must admit that it has been so long since I was in Savannah that I cannot now recall it to mind. I can't quite make it out on the photo. I do remember when he died: in the bombing of the Marine barracks, twenty-two years ago today.

I guess a lot of people don't realize it is a tomb as well as a monument. One day, long ago now, I was walking down in Savannah with two Marines I knew, one of whom was a young man I had grown up with and known almost all of my life. He was in Savannah to visit me, following a USMC Reserve exercise he'd been part of, and had brought along one of his unit mates. I was happy to put them up and show them around the town.

As we were walking through Forsyth Park, we came to that monument, which is at the head of it. While we were standing there reflecting on it, a young jogger wearing headphones came running by. He lept up on top of the monument without breaking stride, did a little dance, hopped down and ran off again.

It was all done so nonchalantly that I can't help but think he did not know that he was, literally, dancing on a man's grave. I know that he avoided a bad time that day only because the three of us were so completely shocked that we couldn't accept that we had really seen what we had seen until he was already half a block away from us.

"Comrade, tread lightly." The world is full of graves.

FLoS

"The Far Line of Sand"

The Belmont Club has an excellent post on littoral warfare, and US Navy efforts to prepare for its increased importance. Another critical warfighting system here is the Virginia class submarine, which is always under attack from Congressional budget cutters (giant bridges to nowhere in Alaska, yes; important naval warships, no).

A little known truth about submarines is this: the diesel ones, which are put into battle by third-world nations like Chile, are stealthier than ours. For one thing, you can turn a diesel engine completely off, rendering it perfectly silent. You can lay on the bottom, listen for anything suspicious on your sonar, and give it a torpedo. This is one thing that gives rise to what Wretchard accurately notes: the US Navy may rule the blue water, but it isn't currently capable of dominating close-to-shore conflicts. This is important: Taiwan, the Malacca straits, and a number of other potentially critical battlespaces are exactly where we are vulnerable to third-world (i.e., asymmetrical) power.

The whole battle with submarines is information, and stealth is a huge part of that battle. Stealth is how you keep information about your subs away from the enemy: where are they, what is their course, what do I need to know to program a torpedo to hit it? Because we are wedded to nuclear technology, partially because we need the range-without-refuelling that you can't get with diesels, we have to make up with high-level information technology what we are losing in stealth.

Braiding in C4ISR technology with advanced stealth technology is the only way to make up for what we're losing by not being able to field diesels. Once again, the symmetry/asymmetry model means that we have to be at our very best to compete with people who aren't nearly as capable on their own.

Football

Football:

I love football, but I almost never get to see any of it.

The main thing is that I end up working most weekends -- seven day weeks are the standard here -- and, furthermore, I refuse to pony up the money for cable/sat TV just so I can watch football now and then. As a consequence, I almost never see a good, or even a bad, football game.

Today, however, I happened to be having lunch at a place that had the Indiana U. / Ohio State game. OSU stompied IU into the earth, winning by 31 points.

I only got to watch the fourth quarter, but I could see why OSU did as well as they did. It was the old cliche that you see in every football movie, because it's true -- they had heart. Up three touchdowns in the fourth quarter, I saw an OSU receiver take a tackle that flipped him head over heels into the ground, when he could have stepped out of bounds instead. All that, just to get one more yard.

It's hard to beat a team that plays that way. They deserve to win. As a result, they very often do.

WOC2

Speaking Of...

...Winds of Change, Armed Liberal has a pair of posts taking Matt Yglesias to task over his article advocating surrender in Iraq.

I've got a test for that.

Let Yglesias, or one of his ilk, sit down with JHD's boy and a few of his fellow Devil Dogs, and explain to them that they've lost the war. If he lives through the encounter, I'll be happy to help pack for the withdrawal.

Until then, I'm not buying it.

G.A.

I'm pleased to note that one of my current Senators, George Allen, was among the fifteen who voted the right way on the amendment to redirect pork money to a useful project. I'm sorry to see that neither of the Senators from my beloved home state of Georgia, however, managed to get it right.

Winds of Change had a good post about this. From now on, expect to make your own arrangements in case of disaster -- the US Senate can't be bothered with you.

NIS