Celebrate

New Orleans Resignation:

Grim's Hall would like to join BlackFive in celebrating the departure of a cowardly, corrupt official. A corrupt official I can sometimes endure, but cowardly ones I can't stand at all.

I did post a link to a MSNBC video of New Orleans Police looting a Wal-Mart. I posted about the desertions on the police force (and praised the ones who stayed on duty throughout the madness in the aftermath of Katrina).

But the one reason that this guy should step down is because he and his security detail ran from armed thugs in the Superdome. They ran when they should have served and protected.
Lots of links at B-5's place. Good riddance.

NfK

Notes from Knights:

The Knights Simplar have a list of things they'd like you to do. One of them is to call your Congressmen to support the creation of a citizens' border patrol. It would be organized under Congress' power to call up the militia, interestingly enough.

They also have a compromise proposal for dealing with an objection from Sarah Brady:

Brady's concern is that we're "going to get the right to use them [firearms] willy-nilly." To show that we are not above compromise, I encourage you to ask your Congressmen to take the phrase "willy-nilly" out of any pending legislation.
I'll support that.

Truth in advertising

Illumination Through Partial Translation:

Have a look at this statement from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front's spokesman. He is herein denying the "legitimate" membership in MILF of some fighters captured by the army. The statement is partially in English, partially in the local tongue known as Tagalog.

"Nagtataka kami kung bakit pinapatulan sila ng mga military at bakit nagpapaloko ang mga military sa kanila. Babalik din yan sila sa illegal na activities pag wala ng makuha," he added.
I had the pleasure recently of taking one of the several government "artificial language" tests (actually, I think I've taken all of them at one point or another). Often, though, there's a lot to be gleaned just from the "loan words."

wic

Women in College:

InstaPundit points to the problem that does not exist, too many women in college:

Currently, 135 women receive bachelor's degrees for every 100 men. That gender imbalance will widen in the coming years, according to a new report by the U.S. Department of Education.

This is ominous for every parent with a male child. The decline in college attendance means many will needlessly miss out on success in life. The loss of educated workers also means the country will be less able to compete economically. The social implications -- women having a hard time finding equally educated mates -- are already beginning to play out.
He links to Althouse, as well as Jokers On the Right and Lies and Statistics.

OK, here's my take: which disciplines show which biases?

Glenn suggests three explanations. I think the real choice is one in between two of the ones he offers: that more men are choosing profitable careers outside of education, and that women are overrepresented in higher education. This is because more female-oriented careers insist on credentials. More male-oriented careers insist on demonstrated skills.

Here's what I mean by that: how many of these women are majoring in literature, library science, psychology, sociology, and the other "soft" arts and sciences? If we're looking at a future where the vast majority of public school teachers, librarians, and psychologists are female, how is that a threat to men?

If we're looking at a future where the majority of mathematicians, general officers and scientists remain male, how is that a bonus to women?

When I took my Master's Degree, almost everyone there was female. And almost all of them were taking degrees in Education, nursing, and the like. In order to get the full rate of pay as a public school teacher or a librarian, you have to invest a ton of money and time getting a graduate degree in "education" or "library science," even though neither in any way requires such a degree. If you're a public librarian, you need to know the Dewey Decimal system, and how to be nice to rude people.

A public school teacher? They need to know their subjects. They don't need courses in education: every one of them has been twelve years in the system as a student, and has had an additional apprenticeship as a student teacher. None of them needs instruction in 'the philosophy of education.' They need to learn their subject matter. And that, of course, is just what they can't study -- because they need that "Education" degree to get their money in many places.

Wasted.

There's no cause for concern here. The problem is not that men aren't "welcome" in academia, as Althouse puts it. It's that men are better judges of what is critical and what is laughable. The majority of millionaires in this country have no college degree.

It's not that education is unimportant. It's that academia is.

Vegans

Vegans Go To Jail:

Ace has a story about some Vegan parents who almost starved their poor kid to death, because they wouldn't give her any milk:

I have a question: Were these people so f'n' crazy they rejected the notion of even breastfeeding their child, as breastmilk would be an "animal product" and hence not fit for human consumption? From what I can see, that would appear to be the case.

How stupid do you have to be to decide, based on some kind of insane eating-disorder-cum-political ideology, that human milk is itself unfit for consumption by a human baby?
The first commenter says, "This supports my theory that vegan diets lower IQ by 50 points."

That really must be true. I have a buddy who's a falconer. As a young fellow, he went to a college whose name escapes me at the moment, but which was founded by hippies in the mountains of North Carolina.

One day, he noticed that his hawks seemed to be getting sick. He couldn't figure out why -- some illness that touches only birds? But none of the other regional falconers were reporting it.

Still, his birds got sicker and sicker, weaker and weaker, until they could barely fly. Finally, one night, on a hunch he staked out the mews.

Sure enough, shortly after he put out the food, one of the local vegan hippies slipped in and stole all the chicken and other meat from the hawks. My good friend picked up a tire iron, and went out to have a "wee chat" with the fellow. Turns out the kid had this notion that the hawks shouldn't be eating meat, but ought to be eating this fine soy-bean protein instead, and...

Hawks can't live on soy beans.

Babies need milk.

That's just how it is, folks.

Just War

Taking "Just War Theory" Seriously:

As I do not watch television, it will not disturb the networks to discover that this or that new show does not appeal to me. However, this review of the pilot for "Commander in Chief" does merit some comment. Among other things, the show apparently attempts to demonstrate to viewers that a good liberal President would not be a pacifist, but would use the military vigorously in defense of proper principles. In particular, what interests me is the test case they set up for the righteous use of arms:

Liberals are serious about human rights in this world too. Working out a subplot, Allen’s aides keep reminding her about the Nigeria situation: In accordance with sharia, Nigeria is about to put a woman to death for committing adultery. Allen is concerned.

Throughout, Allen is shown confidently ordering around generals and positioning aircraft carriers (see, this is why stereotypes are bad). And as Commander limps through its 38th minute, she brings the Nigerian ambassador to a Joint Chiefs’ meeting and proceeds to illustrate how the Marines will storm his country if the woman isn’t released immediately.

“I can’t believe the U.S.A. would take such a unilateral action,” the ambassador mumbles.

“If you think I’m going to sit by while a woman is executed, tortured, for having sex, you’re sorely mistaken,” retorts Allen.
So, this is what a proper use of force looks like in the liberal Hollywood imagination. There is a problem, however.

It is not a proper use of force.

Deploying the military, particularly in an invasion by Marines, is going to result in loss of life and social chaos. These are bad things, which always inevitably result on the occasions that the military is used.

If a war is just, however, there may be some good ends that will result as well. It is important to see that the good ends and the bad results balance, in a way that favors the good. You cannot morally use force if you don't attend to that balance.

"Just War" theory, which is the backbone of Western ethical thinking about military force, addresses the issue using a technique known as "the doctrine of double (or dual) effect." The doctrine originally arises in Medieval Catholic thought, but applies very nicely to questions of morally using force. (This is true for liberals as well as conservatives, by the way -- one of the finest books on the subject, and indeed my original textbook when I was first studying the concept of Just War, was written by liberal thinker Michael Walzer.)

The doctrine of double effect holds that, when you contemplate an action that has both a good and a bad effect, you can morally take that action if:

1) The action is "discriminate," by which they mean that the bad effect is neither your goal, nor the means to the good end you hope to achieve. The way to test this is by imagining that the good end could, by miracle, be achieved without the bad things coming to pass. If you would be happy with that result, the act is discriminate.

An example: You wish to bomb a weapons' factory, but there will be workers there who will be killed. The workers are forced labor; it's not their fault they are making weapons for the enemy. Is the act discriminate? You imagine that the bombs fall and by miracle destroy the factory, but the workers all escape unharmed. Would you be satisfied? Of course! Therefore, the act qualifies under the first test.

2) The act must also be "proportionate," meaning that the good accomplished must be at least equal to the harm caused. This has to be tested before the fact -- one can't be blamed for harm that one could not have reasonably imagined.

An example: You invade a country to stop a genocide in progress. In the process, your advancing troops disrupt the tribal social order far more completely than anyone expected, thus touching off a revenge genocide that kills far more people than the original one would have done. Your original action (trying to stop the first genocide) qualifies as proportionate because the greater harm was neither expected nor probable. Now, you must choose whether to try and stop the new genocide -- for which you are partially responsible.

In our Hollywood dream scenario, we have a liberal President planning to invade Nigeria with Marines in order to rescue a single person. Rescuing the single person from torture and execution is a good effect (at least, it's a good effect if one doesn't believe, as the people in that part of Nigeria do, that "having sex" in this context is an offense against God that has a divinely mandated punishment). Well enough. What are the bad effects of invading Nigeria?

* There is, to start with, the loss of innocent life that will unavoidably happen when you deploy Marines to secure a city.

* If one has taken the line that the Iraq war is a bad thing because it pits Americans against Muslims, then this war is far worse. It pits America against, not "some Muslims," but Islam itself. We are undertaking to enforce a Western notion of justice over, not a socialist-fascist tyranny, but over sha'riah.

* A major nation state in Africa is disrupted. Given the regional instability, this could have fearsome consequences -- for which we will be unprepared, because our national commitment, both in terms of force levels and political will, is only up to the task of rescuing a woman.

Thus, the good to be accomplished is not in anything like a proportionate relationship to the harm caused. While discriminate -- we don't have to imagine the scenario where no harm is caused, because Hollywood does it for us, with the Nigerians backing down -- the act is not at all proportionate. The action is improper, and immoral.

The supposed President's actions are also, I can't help but notice, shocking to the degree that they are unaware of basic military realities. She went to the enemy and told them what her plans for invasion were?

Pity the poor Marines who are asked to take those landing zones. They'll do it, of course, but it would have been a good idea not to "illustrate" the plan beforehand.

In addition, given the size of the mission objective, it was very unwise. As we have seen from the time it took to capture Saddam, and the continuing inability to find Zarqawi, it is not hard to hide a single person from an army in a large nation. This is true even if, as in Saddam's case, absolutely everyone can recognize him on sight.

The "woman" in question could easily be hidden from the American forces or, more likely, sent back to them in pieces. If the goal was to rescue this woman, the goal will not likely be accomplished in the fashion imagined.

If you had to imagine military action in this context, the thing to do was to send an unannounced commando raid backed by light infantry to secure the area. Navy SEALs acting in concert with Army Rangers, as in the Jessica Lynch raid, might work. Such an action might indeed be proportionate, although it would still have the bad effect of casting America as the enemy of sha'riah -- but only for an evening, rather than committing to months and years of fighting to prevent the implementation of sha'riah. It would, at least, avoid the more major type of disruptions.

They might actually get the woman back, too. President Geena's plan was not too likely to manage that.

HuT

Hizb-ut Tahrir:

Since I mentioned them in the last post, I'd like to point out that HuT has an interesting anti-abortion stance.

Approximately 5,000 members and supporters of Hizb ut-Tahrir from Jakarta and surrounding areas rallied in great numbers in front of the President's Palace on Merdeka Barat Street, on Sunday September 18th 2005.... And a giant banner read "Laa ilaaha illallah Muhammadur Rasulullah", the participants brought several posters with the slogans... “legalising abortion made free sex easy.” Other posters condemned the Liberal ideas and called for the Islamic solutions.
There are two things to be said about this. The first is that they have put their finger on the truth: "Legalizing abortion made free sex easy" is really the #1 argument in favor of abortion. It is an argument that no one ever seems to make plainly, even here (where "free sex" enjoys high popularity as a concept, if not as a reality). Nevertheless, that's what this is really about.

The second is that HuT is astonishingly blind to think that they can take the #1 argument in favor of abortion, and use it as an argument against abortion. It reminds me of a certain anti-drug campaign from a couple years ago:
According to the National Center on Addiction and Substance Abuse (CASA) at Columbia University, teens who use drugs are five times more likely to have sex than are those teens who do not use drugs. . . . Kids need to hear how risky marijuana use can be.
Oh, yeah. Just what I'll tell my teenage son. "It makes it five times as likely that you'll have sex!" Good God.
The "human nature" thing keeps evading some people.

Rev.

"Revolution"

We talked a bit about the BBC writer, Justin Webb, who wondered out loud if the US was finally headed to a revolution against the capitalists. Cassandra was more disturbed by the piece than I was, as she is putting it in a larger context, that of an ongoing media assault on American values. The BBC writer, for me, was a fellow who would never agree with us because his principles are opposed to everything America stands for; and yet, he was seeing some fine and praiseworthy things in the American reaction to Katrina, and was forced to recognize that in spite of his openly admitted prejudices. I respected that, and still do.

A middle-aged Brit who wants to speculate about why we don't have a revolution is one thing. He's not trying to start one. He just wonders why we don't, and the answer demonstrates an ability to see people with whom he disagrees on principle in a kind and humane light.

The wider context that bothers me is the domestic attempt to provoke a civil war. Nor is it limited to powerless protestors:

Mr. Rangel, a Democrat who has represented Harlem for almost 35 years, spent his portion of yesterday’s forum reminiscing about the civil rights struggles of the 1960s, and calling on his audience to undertake similar action today, inciting them to “revolution” after the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina and particularly its impact on indigent blacks in the Gulf Coast region.

The storm, he said, showed that “if you’re black in this country, and you’re poor in this country, it’s not an inconvenience — it’s a death sentence.”
Then there are the groups who want to incite the the destruction of all humanity.
By accident they stumble on an outpost of The Coalition Against Civilization, an organization dedicated to an ideology called eco-primitivism. The harmless-looking vegetarians are passing out pamphlets looking for a few good species traitors, who would work towards "spreading and developing theories and practical means to bring about the destruction of civilization and defend what wilderness remains." For a real-life account, read Baron Boddisey's and Dymphna's description of their experiences in the Gates of Vienna.

Societies whose goal is the destruction of human civilization or even humanity itself have existed on the margins for some time. The Voluntary Human Extinction Project (VHEMT) argues it is not enough to reduce the population that is burdening Gaia. Humanity must disappear down to the last man, woman and child to "allow Earth's biosphere to return to good health". Theodore Kaczynski, AKA the Unabomber, a trained mathematician of extremely high intelligence, embarked upon a terrorist program whose aims were put forth in the manifesto Industrial Society and Its Future.
Then there is the Caliphate. And then there is the small but radical fringe, to whom I will not link at all, which advocates a "race war" from the other side of the question.

These people are hostis humani generis, enemies of all mankind. Some of them think that they are enemies only of part of mankind, but they are really the enemies of all of us. The people they think will benefit from their revolutions are the ones who will suffer the most, should they be fool enough to follow the path.

When was the last real Revolution in the West? So long ago, apparently, that no one remembers what one looks like. The terror of the word is lost on them.

Taxes

Republicans Audit The Poor:

Just to show you that I take my co-bloggers seriously, I'm going to cite an article by Eric's favorite blog, Dennis the Peasant, which I've been reading lately. This particular article was on a plan to sic the IRS on the poor people of the nation, rather than using their auditors' time and energy to go after the rich and the corporate.

First, the cost of EITC [Earned Income Tax Credit, whereby the government sends "refund" checks to poorer families with children even though they didn't pay the "refunded" taxes to start with -- Grim] over-claims (payments made to taxpayers by the I.R.S. due to taxpayer preparation errors related to EITC) was between $4 billion and $5 billion in for the tax year of 1994. Total EITC payments for tax year 1993 totaled $15 billion. Simple math gets you to the realization that as of 1994, between one of every four and one of every three dollars paid out as EITC were the result of "noncompliance", the term used by the I.R.S. to indicate tax return preparation error. Second, the cost of EITC over-claims was estimated to be $11 billion for the tax year of 1999. In other words, the dollar payout by the I.R.S. for EITC noncompliance more than doubled in 5 years.

I could go on, but you get the drift. EITC has been problematic since its inception 30 years ago. Tax Compliance Measurement Programs in 1982, 1985 and 1988 found significant levels of noncompliance. I.R.S. testing in 1995 confirmed those findings. What all of this does not prove is that noncompliance equates with fraud. While there is anecdotal evidence that EITC is a fraud hotspot, the reality of the matter (to which I can attest on a professional level myself) is that EITC rules are complicated and complex. It would seem the most noncompliance is related to the difficulties in understanding the eligibility requirements, rather than outright criminal intent.

But that doesn’t mean that you simply ignore the problem. For a management perspective, one cannot simply ignore a problem of the magnitude of EITC noncompliance without jeopardizing the integrity of the entire system.
EITC is kind of an oddity in the system. I've never quite gotten the way in which people who haven't paid taxes are due a "refund," though I do understand why the system is in place. Essentially, it exists to make sure that working is a better deal than welfare -- that nobody falls into the category where they and their kids are so poor that they'd be better off not working and take the dole.

So, let's say that it's a reasonable idea. However, a plan to hand out free money obviously has to be intensely regulated because it will be very popular. The result is, as Dennis says, that the rules for collecting the EITC check are very complex and technical -- and they tend to fall upon that group of people which is least prepared to deal with such technicalities, because as a group the poor are less well educated and less able to hire an accountant.

The charge raised against these audits is that it is motivated by politics, by class warfare, by a desire to squeeze the poor in the fashion of That Scurvy Prince John:
If [the author raising a complaint about the audits, T. Christopher] Kelly happens to be right – that increased EITC auditing is not appropriate at this time – it’s not because he actually understands the issue nor has the facts at his command. Most certainly it would be more in the order of a happy (for him) accident. Realistically though, let’s come to the understanding that he’s completely wrong in all respects. But because he has no grounding in fact, and no understanding of the primary issues involved, he has latched onto an idea that everything can, and must, be reduced to the political. There can be no considerations, management, organizational, or whatever, that matter in Kelly’s world... because he can’t fathom what they are.
One suspects that the emotional content of the anti-audit argument is something like this: "These people are working poor with kids, and need the money more than you do. So what if they screw up their taxes and get a little extra money back? They need it. We should just ignore that, and raise taxes on the rich and the corporations to make up the difference."

There are negative consequences for the poor in higher taxes on the rich and the corporate, of course -- just as there are negative consquences for the poor in any sort of higher cost. The benefits arising from "extra" EITC payments probably don't make up for them, and more to the point, can't be assumed to do so: the "extra" payments are going to people outside the class the EITC is meant to help. That's why they're "extra" payments that are not authorized by the rules. The truly poor lose out here. Benefits meant for them are going to others who are not in such a hard case. Meanwhile, the rich and the corporate, taxed extra to make up the difference, push their costs downward. The result is that the lot of the genuine working poor is worse than it was if EITC was administered properly.

I remain convinced that we need to replace the tax system with a far simpler one. Insofar as we are stuck with this one for the time being, however, we have to take a hard look at it. What the emotional argument really wants is higher EITC payments, which in fact is a political issue that they should take to Congress. As much as I love to join in detesting the IRS, an agency I will be only too happy to see the end of if we can arrange a better system, they are not the ones at fault here.

tests

Political Tests:

I'm always amused by these attemps to model personality and political thinking. Patrick Carver and Feddie took this one, and posted their results. Here are mine:

You are a

Social Liberal
(70% permissive)

and an...

Economic Conservative
(70% permissive)

You are best described as a:

Libertarian




Link: The Politics Test on OkCupid Free Online Dating
The test is somewhat biased in a few ways. These are two of four graphs they show you. One of the ones not shown is "Famous People," which graphs you against a number of political figures. I fall closest to Jefferson, which actually might be a statement of the test's accuracy -- the wing of the Democratic Party that survives in the mountains of Georgia is strongly Jeffersonian, as it has been since its founding. (It shows how far the national Democratic party has fallen, too -- their founder, Jefferson, is now very far away from the furthest border of what the test considers a "Democrat" position. As we keep saying, we Southern Democrats can't "return to the fold," because we're still standing right where the fold used to be. It's the rest of you who need to hie yourselves back here.)

I notice that the dead-center of the test is represented by John Kerry. Kerry's ADA rating puts him to the left even of Ted Kennedy, yet somehow he strikes the test-makers as a "centrist." Not on your life.

Another bias is in the sample, which is of course self-selecting and non-scientific. Still, it's interesting:

Kerry voters: 166,789
Bush voters: 79,171

Percentage of these voters who say they are in favor of gun control: 37.

That's kind of interesting, isn't it? Kerry to Bush voters ought to be close to 1-1, since the election was so close; instead, it's 2-1 Kerry. Yet gun control still only manages support among slightly more than a third of test takers.

Kind of a hopeful sign, from where I sit.

UPDATE: Another thing that bothers me about this test, on reflection: it judges both axes based on "permissiveness." That seems like an odd standard to me, and I imagine that it's a more complex one than the test-makers believe it to be.

Two examples, one minor and one not:

1) The minor one -- statements aren't clearly about "permissiveness," so I'm not sure how they judge based on them whether you are willing to grant permission. One of the statements you are asked about is, "I would defend my property with lethal force." If you agree with that, is that the absence of economic permissiveness, or social permissiveness? Even an anarchist, believing that property is theft, would nevertheless suggest that you aren't obligated to 'grant permission' to someone who doesn't bother to ask for it.

2) The major one -- often one permits one thing in order to avoid permitting another.

One of the statements is, "People shouldn't be allowed to have children they can't provide for."

This is a question that would appear to be designed to bring out the closet eugenicists and haters of welfare (particularly coupled with the Natural Selection and homelessness question that appears earlier in the test). Yet it my experience that "I couldn't afford a child" is a frequently offered reason for practicing a certain kind of choice.

You will probably find a lot of members of the Religious Right who would "strongly disagree" with this proposition, precisely because of their moral opposition to abortion. They will happily permit extra kids, to avoid permitting abortion. Meanwhile, some outright socialists will happily support abortion, to avoid the backbreaking costs of extra children on their social systems.

That's all probably quite a bit of analysis for a simple online test. Still, as I said, I am always amused by these attempts to make models of the mind. Examining their flaws can often be illuminating.

Finally, one good thing about the test -- it sees no distinction between "Socialist" and "Communist." That's fine with me. As my old professor of Political Science used to say, "Where I come from, they use the tems 'Socialist,' 'Communist,' and 'Satanist' more or less interchangeably."

Sunday

Some Links of a Sunday:

Chester posts about a "massively multiplayer online role playing game" that is experiencing something new -- an unplanned virtual plague infecting the player characters.

Daniel survived Rita and got a lousy T-shirt. He also reports on looters in Houston after the hurricane. The looters, it turns out, are former citizens of New Orleans.

Doc talks about two women he met during the evacuation.

I myself don't have much of anything to talk about. The arrival of autumn has kept me away from the "crystal ball" for as much of the day as I can manage. I've been hiking along (and right up the middle of) the Rappahannock river, going to the gun range, taking the boy on trips, and the like. All very pleasant, but it hasn't inspired any particularly deep thoughts about the world.

Well, maybe next week.

Saying too much

Saying Too Much:

I saw that Althouse slammed the BBC's Justin Webb, for which she was approvingly linked by InstaPundit and The Corner (at least, I assume that "BBC Bashing" indicates approval).

Y'all should have read to the end of the piece. Of course a British socialist thinks that America's lack of a welfare state is a problem. Of course he believes we need a revolution to institute a more socialist form of government.

But he also does understand America, as it turns out.

My children attend the same school that Charles Wheeler's daughter Shereen graced in the early 1970s.

In the last few weeks my e-mail inbox has been filled with earnest messages from fellow parents about places we can give money to victims of Katrina, drop off teddy bears we no longer want, dispatch clothes for which we have grown too fat and so on.

Many are giving their time as well as their money

No e-mail in those days of course, but I bet Charles got parchment scrolls, or whatever they used then, with lists of good causes to which he could contribute.

Charity is part of the warp and weft of American life and it is telling that Hurricane Katrina has encouraged an outpouring of giving on a scale never seen before.

Americans are cross with the government and disappointed with the response from Washington, but they have not sat on their hands and waited for the government to sort itself out. Much the opposite.

Americans have given with unbridled enthusiasm and generosity.

Is that not something governments do?

Americans do not think so and never will.

This is unquestionably a source of strength and spine in troubled times, but boy does it put a dampener on revolution.

Charity ameliorates it, softens blows, pours oil on troubled waters. It does not lead to social change.

Inequality is a part of American life and so is self reliance. Nothing I have seen in the last few weeks alters that.

American government is a mess. American bureaucracy and red tape is a national shame. American political clout around the world has been reduced by the Katrina fiasco.

But in Biloxi three weeks ago I watched a man with a chainsaw and two handguns beginning the process of rebuilding his house.

He will be joined by others after this weekend's devastation. They represent an America that Charles Wheeler would recognise instantly, and even now after the flood, is little changed.
American government is a mess, and the red tape and bureaucracy are a shame -- just look at the Julie Myers political appointment we've been railing about for a week, or really just take a close look at any bureaucracy in the government. I don't know about American political clout being reduced. I don't think political clout really has much to do with how people want to see you. It has to do with how they can't help but deal with you. By that score America isn't going anywhere: neither the UK nor the EU nor ASEAN nor the OIC can really afford to do without us, and though they won't admit it, they all know it.

Still, the important and notable thing about the article is not that the fellow said that "the real question, to put it baldly, is whether there is going to be a revolution."

The real thing to note is that he answered his question: No, there won't be. When he looked hard and honestly at America, what he saw was no mob of discontents fomenting violence. He saw a nation spurring itself to ever greater acts of charity and goodwill. He saw a people who would not and did not ask their government to fix things for them. He saw a man with a chainsaw and two handguns, who had put up his house once before and was going to do it again.

That's the America I want people to see. I've got no problem with this author. Whatever I may think of his politics, and whatever he thinks of mine, I respect the fact that he has eyes that are not blind.

meds

Perhaps it's the "Medicine":

A report from the Times of London:

A UNITED Nations report has labelled Scotland the most violent country in the developed world, with people three times more likely to be assaulted than in America.
England and Wales recorded the second highest number of violent assaults while Northern Ireland recorded the fewest.
Got that? Scotland and England are both far more dangerous than Northern Ireland.

Well, it is a UN report.
It found that people living in Scotland were almost three times more likely to be victims of violent assault than people living in the States and suggests that more than 2,000 Scots are attacked every week, almost 10 times the official police figures.
I've done some work with American crime statistics, and so I know that the manipulation of these things by police departments is quite usual. I don't know how things work in the UK, but in the US the central crime statistics are compiled by the FBI in what they call the Uniform Crime Reports. UCRs are based on stats compiled by local police, and transmitted to the FBI.

There are two serious openings for manipulation in the UCR methodology. The first is the fact that the FBI only tracks certain named crimes. Because local police are themselves compiling the stats, all they need to do is reclassify a "forcible rape" (a UCR tracked crime) as a "sexual assault" (not tracked by the UCR) and the rape disappears off the crime statistics entirely and forever. As far as the statistics are concerned, it never happened, and your city had one fewer rape last year.

Alternatively, if you are lobbying for increased funding, you can start reclassifying things as UCR crimes. This brings us to the second great flaw: the FBI doesn't have a standard for how the police count. The police may report to the FBi the number of crimes that were reported; or the far smaller number "cleared by arrest"; or the far, far smaller number prosecuted; or the very much smaller number for which a conviction was actually obtained. One police department will choose to report on reported crimes, and another only on crimes cleared by arrest (reasoning that they don't know that the other crimes really happened, since they never caught anyone who seemed to be guilty of it).

Thus, a police captain who wants to light a fire under people can cause his city's crime statistics to "soar" just by changing to counting-by-report, and having a policy of classifying reported crimes whenever possible as a report of a UCR crime. A sheriff who wants to show "progress" in his tenure can do the opposite, causing the rates to "fall" again. A clever politician in the police department can play with these statistics both early and late, charging his predecessor with "unethical underreporting" to explain why the rates soar shortly after he enters office, and then making changes over the course of his term to bring the "rates" down.

Do Scottish police do the same thing? I don't know: maybe the UK has a rock-solid methodology. It would be a bit surprising to me, though, to learn that was the case.

handbook

"Handbook for Bloggers and Cyber-Dissidents."

Reporters sans Frontiers has issued a manual on anonymous blogging. It is intended to protect bloggers in parts of the world where they may be the only honest reporters (say, China) or for people who have reason to fear government censorship of their speech (say, State Department employees). The guide looks good on its face, with advice on keeping your identity secret from authorities, while getting your message out by getting publicity and attracting the notice of search engines.

It's a good idea. Any of you who are techies might want to look it over and see if you can spot errors that might undermine the purpose of the manual, or make suggestions to refine their concepts.

NRAsuit

NRA Files:

The National Rifle Association has apparently filed for a restraining order to stop the unconstitutional gun seizures in New Orleans. The comments in their news article about it are publicity statements -- I haven't yet seen the actual motion. It will be interesting to see where they take their stand on the law, and under just what terms their lawyers decided they could make the strongest case.

rita

Rita Rides In:

Grim's Hall co-blogger Daniel is going to ride out Rita in Houston. Doc hit what sounds like a miserable highway, but has apparently made it out safely. His lady wife, however, is remaining behind -- she is a medical doctor who has volunteered to care for the wounded.

I'm not too worried about Daniel -- neither storm nor thunder should trouble a man of his ilk -- but I hope you will all keep Mrs. Doc in your thoughts. And best to Doc, too: being away from a loved one in these circumstances is a worse pain than being in danger yourself.

Feddie

Stare Decisis:

Feddie of Southern Appeal writes to say that he would be only too happy to serve if nominated. Fat chance, Fed. Nice pic, though.

Whisky

Whisky, yer the divil!

The LA Times today has a review of a new book on the happiest subject of them all:

He evokes the whisky-sodden world of the 18th century Scottish Enlightenment; you wonder that Edinburgh, a city where everybody downed half a cup of whisky promptly at noon (a bell was rung), produced so many important writers and inventors.

The 18th century attitude, MacLean writes, "is summed up by a story about a group of gentlemen who had been drinking together in a club in Glasgow. They had been at it for several hours when it was noticed that one of the number had been keeping quiet for some time. 'Whit gars Garskadden luk sae gash?' (What makes the laird of Garskadden look so ghastly?), asked the laird of Kilmardinny. To which Garskadden's neighbour replied, 'Garskadden's been wi' his Maker these twa hours; I saw him step awa', but I dinna like to disturb gude company.'"
A half a cup of the pure each noon? I get about that much yearly these days, but I can certainly appreciate the concept. Perhaps when I've retired.

The author does have the right attitude about it:
Because whisky was long considered a medicine, the Scots often added spices and other supposed medicinal ingredients to it, along the line of tonic liqueurs like Chartreuse. MacLean mentions an 18th century recipe that added mace, cloves, cinnamon, nuts, coriander, cubeb peppers, raisins, dates, licorice, saffron and sugar to what was probably perfectly good Scotch to start with.
'With Scotch, mix only water -- and that, only in an emergency.' Just so.

Weap.sys.

A Gallery of Weapons:

Thanks to Secrecy News, you can see the US Army Weapons System Handbook for 2005. It is, of course, unclassified. The information is quite basic, but it treats some near-future weapons as well as current stuff. It can be useful as a primer if you should be interested in an article that mentions this or that piece of weapons tech with which you're not already familiar.

NOR

Nation of Riflemen:

The Nation of Riflemen forums have moved. I'm not a regular participant there, simply because my time for contributing to forums is quite limited, so I normally spend it on blogging here or at The Fourth Rail. It is, however, an interesting and useful resource.