Belmont Club

Woof:

Wretchard's got one for you today. Here's something to ponder:

"The genius of the founding fathers," European Commission President Romano Prodi commented in a speech at the Institute d'Etudes Politiques in Paris (May 29, 2001), 'lay in translating extremely high political ambitions . . . into a series of more specific, almost technical decisions. This indirect approach made further action possible. Rapprochement took place gradually. From confrontation we moved to willingness to cooperate in the economic sphere and then on to integration."
Yeah? It all makes sense, if you remember that your founding fathers were George S. Patton and Winston Churchill.

If you've got some reason to pretend that isn't so, it all falls apart.

The New Yorker: Fact

"The Picture Problem"

The New Yorker recently ran an article which provides more insight into the problems of intelligence. In this case, it's a kind of intelligence that seems quite solid -- pictures, which you can see with your own eyes.

You can build a high-tech camera, capable of taking pictures in the middle of the night, in other words, but the system works only if the camera is pointed in the right place, and even then the pictures are not self-explanatory. They need to be interpreted, and the human task of interpretation is often a bigger obstacle than the technical task of picture-taking. This was the lesson of the Scud hunt: pictures promise to clarify but often confuse.
In exploring just how that can be true, the author casts a wide net: USAF hunting in the "Scud Box" during the Gulf war, the trouble with mammograms, the tremendous sacrifice and utter failure of WWII bombing runs on German ball-bearing factories, and the reasons why Colin Powell's UN presentation on Iraqi WMD went wrong.

Take a few minutes to read it. You'll find it fascinating, and be better informed as to some of the problems of intelligence too.

Asia Times - Asia's most trusted news source

The Asia Times on CIA Reform:

This article treats a perceived collapse of the Central Intelligence Agency, and the hope for its recovery under Porter Goss. They are "shading to cautiously optimistic" on his prospects.

What do Goss and his new DDO Jose Rodriguez aim to do to fix the clandestine service? "More stars on the wall," said a DO officer, referring to the stars placed on the wall of the lobby in CIA headquarters at Langley for every CIA officer killed in the line of duty. What must change, according to Goss, is the agency's "culture of risk aversion". He wants the DO to "launch a more aggressive campaign to use undercover officers to penetrate terrorist groups and hostile governments" - a high-risk strategy to increase drastically the number and use of non-official cover (NOC) officers instead of the current practice of deploying the majority of DO officers as diplomats assigned to US embassies with the benefit of diplomatic immunity as they attempt to recruit and gather intelligence from foreigners.
That is what we need the CIA's Directorate of Operations to do. The rest of the article outlines how the culture of risk aversion came into place, and why.

It is not hard to understand. Those nameless stars represent a sacrifice as final and terrible as the one represented by the Tomb of the Unknowns. Yet these risks must be run, if the agency is to provide us with the intelligence we need to make right decisions and correct assessments.

From the Halls to the Shores

A Rifleman:

Mike is enjoying some well-earned gloating. That's a good looking range report.

BLACKFIVE: Global Voices

BlackFive at Harvard?

So he says. I always thought he was pretty smart... for someone who wasn't in the Marines, of course.

You'll enjoy meeting the brothers, B-5. They are an inspiration.

Grim's Hall

On Spirit of America, and Iraq:

As mentioned, I went last night to the Spirit of America gathering at the Cosmos Club in D.C. I met and greatly enjoyed a short conversation with the Major and his Lady. The highlight of the evening, I am sure they will not mind my saying, was meeting and listening to Omar and Mohammed from IRAQ THE MODEL.

But first, a story.

I had never heard of the Cosmos Club. The email invitation I got mentioned the address of the place, and the name, but nothing more about it. Emailed invitations are particularly informal; this one came from a US Marine, for a time after business hours; and it was at a place called a "club." So, naturally I assumed it was a bar of some sort.

It happened that I had another engagement in town that required semiformal dress, so I figured I'd take a bit of ribbing. Still, I had no way to change, so I planned to go in my suit. It's charcoal grey, in a traditional cut. I wore it with my black Ariat boots, my black Stetson hat, and a bolo tie.

The Cosmos Club turns out not to be a bar at all. It turns out to be... well, this. This is the place where the National Geographic Society was founded, in the 19th century. It is contained in a mansion with Second Empire architecture. The interior is as rich as the exterior, and includes numerous treasures of great value, brought back from the corners of the earth and donated by the members.

Well, I'm a gambler from way back, so I simply put on my best poker face and walked right in. The doorman bowed as I entered, and I went upstairs to the gathering.

After a few minutes, a gentleman came up to me and shook my hand. He introduced himself as LtCol Couvillon, United States Marines, and former military governor of Wasit province.

"I had to shake the hand of any man," he said, "who could get in here wearing cowboy boots and a bolo tie."

Turns out the past president of the Cosmos Club is a former officer of Marines, which is why we got to use the place. It was a remarkable evening. Listening to the Colonel gave insight into the state of Iraq, outside the river-regions where the insurgents have managed to operate. He said that he had requested red, white and blue soccer jerseys from Spirit of America during his time there, to distribute to Iraqis. He'd wanted them because the number one request he got was for American flags. Under the rules of engagement, however, Marines weren't to display the flag, so he had none to offer.

He spoke about the elections they held in Wasit province, where turnout of adults was so close to one hundred percent that he couldn't calculate the difference. He talked about the opening of art galleries, inaugural ceremonies for Iraq's first elected officials in more than thirty years, and the friendships his Marines and sailors developed with the populace.

Omar and Mohammed spoke later in the evening. I quote from memory and without notes, for what it is worth, but they impressed me deeply and I do not thing I will depart very far from the words they actually spoke. They had just come from a meeting with President Bush, with whom they were quite impressed. It showed that America was a place where anything could happen, Omar said: 'Yesterday I came to your country. Today, I met the President.'

Spirit of America is helping them to do great things in Iraq. One of the things they're doing is putting out newspapers at Iraq's universities, where support for the democracy is running high. Iraq, like many similar nations, has a more formal class structure than we have. Apparently, among the educated classes, there is a lot of hope for the future.

Another thing Spirit of America is funding is an Arabic-language blogging tool. This is to help these young, educated Iraqis gather and communicate online, and to help them build communities of like-minded men across the nation. It will be a way for them to speak directly, to have their voice heard rather than filtered through our media -- the only Western institution for which they had hard words.

But that is not all the tool will do. It will also allow the voices of tens of thousands of pro-democracy students to get out on the Internet, so that the young Arabs of surrounding nations can hear them, listen to them talking about taking control of their futures and the building of their country. This is what Jim Hake, the founder of Spirit of America, calls "viral freedom."

Omar in particular was adamant about the elections. He is sure Iraq will surprise us. 'Iraqis want to take their place among the nations,' he said. 'We want to help you fight this war against the terrorists.

'The Iraqi people will never disappoint you.'

He means, of course, the ones who have not chosen to join the insurgents. But he is dismissive of them, in spite of all they do. What we don't understand, he said, is that the kind of terror they can create is nothing to the people of Iraq. Under Saddam, terror was systemic. It was daily. It meant every night, listening for the police at the door.

'Compared to that, these insurgents are nothing.'

I knew Spirit of America was a good cause, but I didn't realize just how good. "Viral freedom." If you can spare anything to help spread it, click the tartan at the top right of the page.

Spirit of America

Spirit of America:

I want to thank everyone who has been donating to the Leatherneck Bloggers. We're up to $350, which isn't much compared to the big teams -- but given the overlap of this blog's readership with one of those bigger teams (the FFF), I'm very pleased.

I've been invited to attend the Spirit of America's D.C. event tomorrow night, where I'll get to meet some of the folks behind Iraq The Model, an Iraqi blog. Some of the Marines behind the SoA efforts will also be there. It will be my pleasure to represent you. I don't know if there will be a question and answer period, or any opportunity similar to that, but if any of you have questions you'd like asked, I'll be glad to entertain them. Drop them in the comments.

For those of you who haven't donated, but would like to do so, I'll say two things more. First, donations are anonymous, so I don't know who gave or what they gave (except for myself and what I've given, naturally). Second, any amount is accepted. If you want to kick in a buck or two, or ten, that's fine. I won't know whether you were the one who gave a buck, or the one who tossed in a C-note. You'll have my thanks either way.

Winds of Change.NET: Milstuff for Dummies: Force Structure

MILSCI Project:

Winds of Change has posted a very useful look at American military force structure. It is designed for the layman, and treats only the recent history for the most part. Nevertheless, it answers several questions of current interest (e.g., "Do we have enough troops for Iraq?").

Since none of you have asked any questions about Warfighting, I'll propose one. "Maneuver warfare is a warfighting philosophy that seeks to shatter the enemy's cohesion through a variety of rapid, focused, and unexpected actions which create a turbulent and rapidly deteriorating situation with which the enemy cannot cope." How can this concept be brought to bear against a distributed enemy force, such as the Iraqi insurgency?

The Jawa Report: (Shock) Dropping Paper 'Peace Birds' on Terrorists Fail to Bring Peace

Peace Doves Can't Fly:

Maybe we should go back to "Death from Above" after all.

The New York Times > International > Middle East > INTELLIGENCE: 2 C.I.A. Reports Offer Warnings on Iraq's Path

Flash News:

The CIA is releasing classified memos again:

But over all, the officials described the station chief's cable in particular as an unvarnished assessment of the difficulties ahead in Iraq. They said it warned that the security situation was likely to get worse, including more violence and sectarian clashes, unless there were marked improvements soon on the part of the Iraqi government, in terms of its ability to assert authority and to build the economy.
"The situation is going to get worse, unless it gets better." Thanks for that, Poindexter.

American Cowboy Magazine. Should there be a National Cowboy Day?

Cowboys:

Should there be a National Cowboy Day?

Times change. The cowboy doesn't. While our culture might sell out; the cowboy stays true to his values (and his horse). Rock stars, rap stars, movie stars come and go--loudly. The cowboy remains--quietly. When our children watch the Twin Towers crumble on CNN, they worry for our security, our future, our very foundation. The cowboy represents that foundation, that self-reliance, survival instinct, and integrity. We know that he'll ride out of that dusty ruin and survive, and with the grace of God he'll get the cattle to Amarillo. There's a little bit of him in every American. That's why we need him.

John Fusco, Screenwriter; Hidalgo

My father liked to watch Westerns when I was a boy. He was a big television watcher when he was home, which was only on the weekends. His job had him up and gone before the sun rose, and the only time of the year you'd see him before sunset was the summer -- because the day was longer in the summertime. On the weekend, though, he'd be at home, working at home and car repair, and serving as a volunteer fireman, instead of doing his regular job.

He would usually find some time on Sunday afternoon to watch some television. The TV was always on when he was home, and it would usually show one of three things: a football game, a NASCAR race, or a Western movie. These were dependable features.

I had no time for Westerns -- I very much preferred Star Wars movies, more progressive, not mired in the past. We lived out on the edge of civilization, it seemed, although I knew that there was more civilization if you just kept going: run far enough from Atlanta and you'll hit Chattanooga. But there was a large swath of country that lay out beyond the uttermost suburb where you'd find cattle country and timberland. North Georgia ground isn't very good, so other forms of farming don't work well. But you can raise cattle, and you can raise short needle pine for pulpwood. This all felt very far from the action, to a boy; I recognized Luke Skywalker's complaint about being on the planet farthest from the bright center of things, and greatly admired Han Solo.

So, I would usually leave my father to his Westerns. I still spent a fair amount of time with him when he was home, though, helping him work on the cars and with other tasks around the property. He spent a lot of that time telling stories, one right after another. Almost all of them were about growing up with my grandfather, who had run a body shop and service station for long haul truckers on I-75. In the imagination of youth, it sounded a great deal like Mos Eisley: there was a cantina filled with dangerous, armed men where my young father sometimes had to go to get and carry back family friends, and which produced occasional fights and drawn guns. Hot rods as finely tuned as any starfighters had occupied my father's free time as a young man. Freightliners paused there to gas up, seeming like smugglers, hauling over their limit, often running on amphetamines as much as gasoline. High stakes poker games ran in the back, while mechanics fixed up the rigs in the bays.

In the center of it all was my grandfather, a great and heroic figure, always armed with his revolver, so fearsome that none of the dangerous men who occupied the fringes of the story ever dared to trouble him. This part of the story I knew to be perfectly realistic, for I'd met the man myself. He had no exact Star Wars comparison. Star Wars would have been a different movie with "Jack T." in it. He was big, and strong, and fearless, hard-drinking but not controlled by the whisky, dangerous but kindhearted to the weak. He took care of his family and his friends, kept the peace among those who were passing through, and ran off the ones who wouldn't abide by his rules.

I always wanted to grow up to be just like him. He was the best man I'd ever heard of or met, so I thought as a boy.

Of course you've realized by now what kind of movie features a man like that.

You never know, with stories, exactly how much is an expression of the great archetypes. A lot has been written about Star Wars archetypes: Han Solo the pirate, Obi-Wan the Wizard, Luke as the Young Hero. The most resonant fiction is built on these archetypes, which speak to the depths of the human heart.

It happens with true stories too, though. Jack T. was the Sheriff, or the Marshall; but the Sheriff in the Western is also the King. Like all of these archetypes, he can be good or bad. The Bad King is a tyrant. The Good King keeps order in the world, upholds and cares for the weak, looks out for the poor, drives off the vicious. He has the power to punish and to pardon, which is seen in every Western: the bandit is run off or killed, but the harmless town drunk is endlessly forgiven and helped in his times of particular adversity.

The world can be violent and cruel, filled both with lawful and the lawbreakers. But the stories tell us that it can also be a good place, a happy place, if there is a good King. If this is the story of the Western, it is also the story of the Beowulf, whose time as king is peaceful in spite even of the existence of dragons. His death brings wild mourning, and the folk expect both death and slavery to follow, even though the dragon was slain.

Americans don't want Kings, but we still need the man even if we don't want the office. We want a free-born man, chosen by his equals rather than by his birth -- and in this, it happens that we are following precisely in the footsteps of the Geats, whose kings were elected by the folk.

I inherited my grandfather's Stetson after he died. I wear it often, when I don't wear my own. I carry a revolver, legally and licensed in several states. I find, when I have time that I don't have to spend working, that there's little I want more than to settle in with a good Western. In this, I am just like many Americans, apparently including Doc. We are seeing in our own way the same, ancient things:
It was decidedly cool for Houston, a harbinger for the frost that would set in that night. Anyway, I was walking along in the cool of the evening with a Justin cowboy hat on my head, and Alice on my hip, when I looked up and I saw a most amazing sunset. It was all gold and burning over the rooftops. Little broad streaks of copper and gold clouds fixed high above in a sea of ultramarine blue, while I was drowned beneath in a cool breeze. It was just gorgeous. I paused from my errand for a minute, awed by a beauty that must have awed man in discrete moments throughout the ages, from ancient Greece to a greek eatery in modern Texas.
In the end, I suppose I did turn out to be just like my grandfather. I'm old enough now to know that he wasn't exactly the man who was painted for me. Having become him, I can see only too clearly some of the flaws he must have borne, which now I bear.

Also, I realize -- not quite too late -- that Jack T. was not the best man I've ever known. My father is. I wanted to be like his father not because his father was better than him, but because his father was the man he most respected and admired in the world. All I wanted was for him to respect and admire me just like that.

If the stories proved not to be completely accurate, they were nevertheless perfectly true. I may not always succeed at being a good man, but I know how. I know how to be a good man because my father told me. He told me about his father. Now I have a son, and I have to tell him. Nothing can capture the value of this gift, or the weight of this duty. I have heard only too often the laments of those who did not receive what I was given, who do not know how to pass on what I must.

The Western is our national epic. It is the way in which Americans, the ones who still remember how, pass on the eternal truths to the next generation.

Grim's Hall

Bad Man Blues:

I have quite a few things I'd like to blog about, but it will not be tonight, as it wasn't last night or the night before. These things pass, and I will be back to myself shortly.

Grim's Hall

MILSCI: Warfighting:

Tonight is the end point for the reading of Warfighting. Any discussion you'd like to have, or questions raised, post here. We'll start with what interests you. Posts will follow over the next two days on topics that interest me. :)

The Politburo Diktat: How Many Wounded?

There'd Better Be A Good Explanation:

The Commisar has an important report on discrepencies in DOD reporting on Iraq wounded.

I am as loyal a friend to the DOD as anyone is apt to find. I believe in the men, and I believe in the mission.

But they'd better have a good explanation for this.

Keep watch.

Spirit of America

Spirit of America: Friends of Iraq Blogger Challenge

The Challenge starts at Midnight! I began a team called The Leatherneck Bloggers. You can get to it by that link, or by clicking on the "Leatherneck Tartan" at the top right of the page.

Unfortunately, due to a coding error the team didn't work right the first time, so those of you who joined it are not actually joined to it, and all of our donations didn't get credited to the new team -- $21 stayed in the general fund. That and, of course, these guys got started. I was with them last time, and would have been this time if they'd gotten their act together in time. ;)

Still, it's a good cause. Donate if you'd like to. If you're a blogger with a USMC background, or Marines in the family, join my team! I'd be glad to have you.

From the Foreign Press: Will Thaksin heed the King and Queen?

A Kinder, Gentler World:

More from Thailand's counterinsurgency efforts:

One suggestion [Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra] has embraced is a plan to mobilise the nation to fold 62 million origami paper 'peace' doves that will be dropped on the south by military aircraft on Dec, 5, the King's birthday.
Response has been so enthusiastic among the Thai people that there are, in fact, 81 million "peace doves" to drop on the south.

I've heard of leaflets, of course. But whatever happened to "Death From Above"?

homepagestudio - filemanager

My New Sign:

I bought this sign today at the Tractor Supply Company, where I'm doing all my Christmas shopping.

I hung it up in my office. Be nice if it works.

DSB

Warfighting in the Age of Information:

The most important report I've seen, from any government agency, is the Defense Science Board's report on Strategic Communications. It's being cited in a few places because the New York Times used it for yet another attack piece on the administration and its view of the world.

Leave the politics aside, though, and read through it. It demonstrates the need for a fundamental shift in the way we talk to each other, and the world.

Some of this will not be news to bloggers, especially after Rathergate:

New information
technologies often separate information from the sender’s identity and the social frames that provide credibility and meaning. Social context on the Internet, for example, is not self-evident. Nor is the identity of those who generate information. Terrorists use websites in ways that mask their agendas. Their web-based narratives usually do not celebrate violence so as to elicit sympathy and resonate with supporters. Information saturation means attention, not information, becomes a scarce resource.

Power flows to credible messengers. Asymmetrical credibility matters. What's around information is critical. Reputations count. Brands are important. Editors, filters, and cue givers are influential. Fifty years ago political struggles were about the ability to control and transmit scarce information. Today, political struggles are about the creation and destruction of credibility.
I read a lot of government reports, and I haven't seen that much insight crammed into that few sentences in ages. We've all been wondering if the government was paying attention to the changes we've been seeing.

They have. Read the rest. It's long, but settle in for it.

Those of you in the Military Science class: when you're done, read this. Now take the problems of the DSB report, the issues that Armed Liberal raises, and compare them to the issues of will and morale we were discussing last week. This is where the war will be won or lost: not in the hearts and minds of the enemy, nor even of the general run of Muslim populations, but in our own.

Thailand

Another One:

This time, Thailand got lucky.

A Muslim militant with a price on his head was killed in a gunfight with police while he was moving a cache of weapons and explosives in violence-plagued southern Thailand on Monday, police said.

The man, for whom the government had offered a 500,000-baht ($12,700) reward, sped away in a pickup truck from a poice checkpoint in Pattani province and was chased by police cars, they said.

The police caught up with Muktar Gureng and killed him in a firefight. A companion escaped into a rubber plantation.

Eight automatic rifles, more than 800 bullets and explosives were found in the pickup truck, police said.
And it's Christmas in Thailand, too -- Buddhists or no Buddhists.

The militants in question, calling themselves The Pattani United Liberation Organization, have responded by posting bounties of their own for assassinating Thai officials. Pattani is one of three Muslim-majority provinces in the South of Thailand. The insurgency has been ongoing in all three, but Pattani has been the focus of their efforts ever since the publication of a little book called Jihad for the Liberation of Pattani, urging Muslims to do just that through the use of Koranic verses mixed with political writings.

Although the "spiritual leader" of Muslims in Thailand denounced the book as unIslamic, the insurgency has been growing. It is probable that the leader is a leader in name only (thus my use of scare quotes): the office of Chularajamontri is not an Islamic office per se, but rather an appointment from Thailand's King, a Buddhist. The job of the Chularajamontri is to provide counsel to the King on questions relating to Islam.

But the fact of occupying such an office degrades you in the eyes of the enemy, whose ideology cannot accept Muslims taking an inferior position to an infidel -- not even a Christian or a Jew, to say nothing of a Buddhist, whose faith was not among those 'given books.' Thai Muslims were until recently not prone to Islamism, but rather were upset due to the eternal concerns of recognizable minorities: relative poverty, a certain amount of discrimination, and an alienation from their nation's political culture, whose symbols and celebrations are not their own. "Relative poverty" means one thing in Detroit or Los Angeles, but in Asia it means a kind of poverty that Americans cannot easily imagine.

But it is the alienation that has proven most deadly. Since Jihad for the Liberation of Pattani, Islamist thinking has spread quickly. It offers a critique and a vision that makes their struggle something very different from a civil rights movement; more than five hundred innocents have been killed since the Jihad began. Beheadings followed attacks against Buddhist monks and nuns, the killing of government officials, and especially teachers. It has entered the popular mindset of the young men, who make up the fighters in any insurgency. The speed and depth of the the conversion to radicalism has shocked everyone.
When the Su So village football team won the local league championship last Sunday, the players were the pride of the small community in Songkhla's Saba Yoi district.

But just three days later, the villagers' joy was shattered when 19 of the players, dressed in black camouflage shirts and red bandannas, attacked a police post. They were gunned down and killed.

'It seemed like they wanted to die,' a police officer said. 'I don't understand why they did not surrender.'

The community is now grappling with the reality that the attackers, who were aged 19 to 26 and armed with guns and knives, led secret lives.

The motivation for attacking a police unit equipped with automatic weapons was beyond the parents of the 19 men educated in Islamic pondok schools in neighbouring districts.

'My nephew was a good man, he did not even smoke,' said Mr Adul Lo-sae, his face showing stunned disbelief.

'I was shocked,' said the football team's coach Pittaya Maephrommi, whose brother was among those killed.

'I couldn't believe it when the police told me my boys attacked them with guns and machetes. They spent hours training with me. I don't understand when and where they went wrong.'
The Thai government seems also to have been caught totally unprepared, and still has not settled on whether it wants to pursue a political solution (the Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, has undertaken several economic projects to resolve poverty in the south of Thailand -- but this is a thirty-year project at best), a cultural solution, or a military solution.

The effect of this confusion has been depressing to observe. So, this is good news -- but it is a bright spot on a dark sea. A solution in Southern Thailand is still a long way off. I suspect that it passes the power of the Thai government, acting alone. Thaksin has been creative, and possesses the native salesmanship that made him a filthy-rich businessman before he entered politics. The alienation is too deep for him to bridge, in spite of the support from the Thai "spiritual leadership." Someone trusted by the people of the south must do what Thailand's own leadership cannot: show the way back from the abyss.

Malaysia, concerned about the dangers posed by a growing insurgency just across the border, has begun to try. Whether their efforts will be fruitful, we will learn in the fullness of time.

PACOM

More Good News From PACOM:

Nothing brings a smile to the face like the words "Muslim Extremist Leader Dies In Shootout":

Government troops killed a leader of the notorious Muslim extremist group Abu Sayyaf in a shootout in the southern Philippines, officials said Sunday.

Munap Manialah, also known as Commander Munap, was shot dead late Saturday in a firefight with Philippine army and navy troops in southern Basilan island's Isabela city... Bacarro said Manialah is wanted for murder and the Philippine government has offered a $6,241 bounty for his capture.
Doubtless the pay for soldiers and sailors in the Philippines is not better than it is for our own fighters. Good news all around! And just in time for Christmas.

Abu Sayyaf is a vicious and criminal organization even by the standards of al Qaeda. Their butchery and hostage taking is not even driven by real religious fervor, but by a desire for power and profit; and far from opposing the sins of the West, as we are told al Qaeda does, Abu Sayyaf funds its enterprises by trading in methamphetamines.

War is a horrible thing, but every now and then, it brings around something that everyone ought to feel good about.