Telegraph | Opinion | Tough dove

More on Powell:

From Mark Steyn, writing the week of Powell's famous appearance before the UN.

Foreign Policy: Powell Valediction

Matters of State:

One of my chief complaints with the Bush administration has been that Bush would not force a settlement between his advisors. It's fine to have advisors who disagree, so long as once the boss has made his decision, both sides resolve to follow his lead in full measure.

It is, therefore, with no sadness whatever that I watch the departure of Secretary Powell. Mr. Hitchens seems to share my opinion, by and large. Indeed, his disdain for the man outstrips my own by an order of magnitude.

I could wish for a better replacement: Dr. Rice has never impressed me in her current position, and I am not sure what virtue except loyalty justifies her promotion. The Secretary of State is one of those jobs which cannot accomplish much benefit even if it is done well, but can cause a great deal of harm if it is done badly. Having someone as notoriously indecisive as Dr. Rice in the position is probably not going to work very well. Still, at least she will follow the President, and thereby devote herself to working to undermine our foreign enemies rather than the Department of Defense. So, even if she is a poor choice, she represents an improvement.

BLACKFIVE: Marine Messages In Fallujah

3/5:

The 3/5 Marines leave a message at "Kos' Bridge."

Michael J. Totten: They Ain�t Studying War No More

On War:

Your boy Kevin Drum is right on [UPDATE: KGC correctly points out that Drum didn't write this; he was merely citing it. The actual author was Heather Hurlburt]:

Many Democrats who came of age during the Vietnam War retain a gut-level distrust of the military. Younger staffers, who may not carry the same psychological baggage, have few mentors urging them toward military or security issues. I speak from experience: My main qualification for my first Washington job -- covering European security for Congress -- was that I could locate the Warsaw Pact countries on a map and correctly identify the acronyms of the relevant international organizations.

But lack of expertise is only a symptom. The malady is an irresponsible lack of interest. The issues that drive most contemporary Democrats into politics are reproductive rights, health care, fiscal policy, or poverty, not national security. Even those young Democrats who are interested in foreign affairs tend to be drawn to 'soft' subjects such as debt relief and human rights. Aspiring foreign policy wonks will often get pulled into military affairs by way of, say, their work on demining. But when these young people visualize exciting jobs in the next Democratic administration, they think State Department, not Pentagon.

I've had a chance to know quite a few Democratic activists. I've never known one who knew, or cared to know, the first thing about military science. Of them all, Sovay is the closest: she's read some books on military history.

The rest of them just sneer.

I know liberals who care about these issues, and who know what they're talking about -- a few of them (Deud, I'm looking at you) post here. But where are they among the ranks of the activists, and the movers of the party?

I just finished saying that ParaPundit is the most convincing voice of the antiwar movement. ParaPundit, however, is a paleoconservative.

If you don't know a refused flank from a Notre Dame Box Formation, how am I supposed to believe you can win a war for us?

Why should I believe you if you say this war is the wrong one?

A German Lesson for Remaking Iraq (washingtonpost.com)

On Revolution:

The most peaceful revolution of all time was the fall of the Berlin Wall:

By way of illustration, she told the story of a woman in Mecklenburg who learned, after the Wall fell, that the citizens of other East German towns had occupied their local Stasi headquarters. Since everyone else in Mecklenburg was otherwise occupied -- people still had to go to work, take care of children, clean the house -- the woman walked up to her local Stasi headquarters alone, knocked on the door, and said she would like to occupy the building. The guard solemnly handed over his pistol, gave her the keys and let her in.

Still, things are far from perfect: in fact, former East Germans are so miserable that twenty percent say they wish the wall had never come down at all.

The lesson of the East German transition after 15 years should, in other words, be phrased as a warning: Even if it is possible to get every political and economic element right, even if it is possible to avoid violence entirely, the psychological transition to liberal democracy from a regime ruled by fear is one that takes at least one generation, if not two. Few people are able to walk from a closed society into an open one without self-doubt and discomfort. Few people find it easy to readjust their thinking overnight, even if they want to. Few people are able to look at themselves in the mirror, tell themselves that the first few decades of their lives were all a bad mistake, and go out and start living new lives according to new rules. It was no accident, a wise teacher once told me, that God made the Israelites wander in the desert for 40 years before bringing them to the promised land: That was how long it would take them to unlearn the mental habits of Egyptian slavery.

The rest of the article is just as interesting.

Camera phone smuggling rife in Saudi Arabia - NOV 14, 2004

Smuggler's Blues:

Did you know that camera phone smuggling was a serious problem for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia?

Cattle smuggling troubles Mozambique.

North Korea has to worry about radio smugglers.

Smuggling is also a problem for Iran and Azerbaijan. There's no word on what kind of smuggling is problem, however. It would be fascinating to know what either one has that the other one doesn't want coming in. Whatever it is, it's a serious problem: Al Jazeera cites a panel of Iranian economists, who cite smuggling as one of several critical threats to what remains of Iran's economy.

It could be, in part, archaeological treasures. Here's a fascinating report on "underwater archaeology" that treats several ancient cities sunken off the coast of Iran.

And, of course, there's this from down Mexico way. Nothing funny about that link.

ParaPundit : November 2004 Archives

The Hundred Thousand:

I never thought the Lancet survey of civilian casualties in Iraq would take off. For one thing, Lancet is a peer-reviewed academic journal, which publications are only rarely read outside the community they intend to serve. For another, the survey was so badly and obviously flawed that nobody could take it seriously. Surely, in the next issue the editors will correct what was a tremendously bad job.

However, perhaps because there are so many people eager to believe what it purports to say, I've started to see "the US has killed 100,000 civilians in Iraq" popping up on discussion boards everywhere.

ParaPundit ably examined the problems with the survey when it came out earlier this month. ParaPundit is very much anti-war: in fact, he is far and away the most convincing anti-war voice in the blogosphere, because he argues out of an understanding of the military science. The issues he tends to raise are the real and severe problems we have to overcome if there will be success in Iraq. I don't share his pessimism about our prospects, but I respect his knowledge and recognize that he points to real concerns.

Still, being of a serious mind, he hates bad argumentation from his own side even more than from his opponents. This is often true of people who are at the top of their game: they recognize that hackery and bad-faith argumentation from their side weaken their argument. Even though they agree with the conclusion, they'll still dispute the method.

As ParaPundit demonstrates, there are two serious problems with the Lancet piece:

1) The survey's "Confidence Interval" runs from 8,000 to 194,000 dead. The "100,000 dead" estimate is merely the middle of that range. However, the confidence interval means that 8,000 is just as likely as 100,000 to be the real number; and that 160,000 or 194,000 are also just as likely. That makes this, as one person sneered, "not an estimate but a dartboard."

2) The estimates that push this out of the 8,000 range and into the 100,000+ range come from hospitals in areas that were insurgent-controlled during the survey. The estimates out of other parts of Iraq, even those which have seen heavy fighting, are much, much lower.

It was standard practice in Ba'athist Iraq to inflate vastly the numbers of starvations resulting from the UN sanctions, and to invent out of whole cloth mass disease and other ills supposedly the result of those same sanctions. This is just business as usual.

DRUDGE REPORT 2004�

That Was Fast:

From Xinhua wires:

Chief of PLO executive committee Mahmoud Abbas, Abu Mazen escaped on Sunday night an assassination attempt as he was attacked by unknown militants at the mourning tent erected to receive condolences for Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat who died on Thursday.

The run-on sentence is characteristic of Chinese-to-English translation. In this case, however, it neatly captures the pace of events: Death -> Mourning -> Succession -> Assassination Attempt -> Civil War.

WFTV.com - News - Police Taser 6-Year-Old Boy At Elementary School

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot:

I'm not a real big advocate of the "cops are fascist" line of thinking. But then I see this report of a six year old boy being hit with a 50,000 volt taser.

Yeah, the kid was "armed." With broken glass. Yeah, he was cutting himself.

But in what world can't a pair of fully grown men restrain a six year old without blasting him with a taser?

Good God.

On Concealed Carry:

You probably saw Dave Kopel's latest over at the Sage. It's an interesting, scholarly treatment of the question -- and like all good scholarly writing, it has a fair bit of humor to liven up the dull parts.

My favorite part:

When the Ohio prohibition was challenged, the Ohio Supreme Court ruled that the prohibition of concealed handgun carrying was constitutional, because state law still allowed the carrying of unconcealed handguns. As a result, large numbers of Ohioans began carrying unconcealed handguns; in response, the Ohio legislature quickly enacted a "shall issue" law to legalize concealed handguns.

Ignorance is bliss, I suppose. I'd rather have the pistols out where I can see them, but suit yourselves.

Concealed carry is more effective as a counterterrorist (and general anti-crime) precaution, because it makes it impossible for miscreants to accurately estimate the danger presented by their target. Do we need a five man team for this office building filled with a hundred Americans? Or are half of those office drones going to prove to be good old American gunslingers armed with .357 Magnum revolvers?

That uncertainty reduces crime, as the criminal discards most marginal targets -- i.e., targets who might be armed, which includes almost everyone. A terrorist has more devotion to his cause, but the need to plan for larger operations creates new vunerabilities for him. The need for larger teams, and more time, means that law enforcement has greatly increased opportunity to uncover and disrupt the plot.

Iraq�s �Special Forces� continue training, ops

36th Commando:

CENTCOM provides a window into the training of the commando battalion of the Iraqi National Guard.

Boston.com / News / Local / Mass. / Elderly veteran killed in parade tragedy

A Tragedy on Veteran's Day:

Per LQ, sad news from Boston. Requiescat in pace, old soldier.

DRUDGE REPORT FLASH 2004�

Another Affront by the Bush Administration:

Bush's folks are appealing the WTO ruling that internet gambling is legal.

This is just another affront to the rights of Gambler Americans such as myself. I suppose the Navy/Marine Corps Relief Fund will continue to benefit from their stubborness, however, so I suppose there is some moral argument to be made. I'd probably just blow the money on new shoes for the boy.

The Corner on National Review Online

More on Marine Ethics:

On the other hand, sometimes those Corps Values pay off:

'On another occasion, the snipers tensed when they heard movement in the direction of a smoldering building. A cat sauntered out, unconcerned with anything but making its rounds in the neighborhood.

'Can I shoot it, sir?' a sniper asked an officer.

'Absolutely not,' came the reply.

Midnight and Snowball would be proud.

Belmont Club

More Military Science:

The Belmont Club remains one of the best sources on the internet for writing about the war. Today he has a piece on Arafat, but also a piece on the war in Iraq beyond Fallujah. It's fascinating, insightful, and concludes thus:

Every campaign has a political dimension. The campaign in the Sunni Triangle is probably aimed at convincing the enemy that resistance is now futile and their best hope lies in participating in the new Iraqi government through elections. Personally (speculation alert!) I doubt it can achieve as much. The campaign will absolutely gut the enemy as a guerilla force, but it will not be enough to prevent them from terrorizing Sunni politicians who may wish to participate in the coming elections. But this will only postpone unconditional Sunni defeat for another year because a terrorist enforced boycott will mean that Kurds and Shi'ites will dominate the new administration and most importantly, its Army. By next year, the regular Iraqi Army will be a far more potent force and the Sunni insurgency a far weaker one. But that's the old sad human story; to miss the chance when it comes and pine for it ever afterward.

BLACKFIVE

Veteran's Day:

BlackFive has many posts up, starting yesterday and continuing today, all of which make good reading.

Survived SARS: Bad Elements...3.1 million of them...

Speaking of China:

Here is a report that 3.1 million Chinese joined in protests or demonstrations last year. One of the largest demonstrations in Chinese history happened just this past month, and lasted for "more than a week." Given how much the Chinese Communist Party loves protests, that's pretty impressive stuff. Activism in the US is a sign of deeply held beliefs, but not particular moral courage, as there is no consequence -- even if you're arrested, they'll let you go unharmed straight away, and an arrest record can be shown as a badge of honor in many places. It's a bit different in China, where people disappear on a regular basis, suffer tortures to make Abu Ghraib look like a playground, and are frequently executed outright, with their family finding out they were imprisoned at all only when they get the bill for the bullet.

Conventional wisdom is that the economic boom that China has enjoyed for the last decade has been suppressing dissent. Simon's World has a piece on why the economic numbers this year are probably just regime propaganda. If there's an economic slowdown, it may help to explain the rise in demonstrations against the state.

On the other hand, tensions are high in China. The Nepalese Maoists, who believe that China is a counterrevolutionary government that will have to be fought, continue to enjoy tremendous success in Nepal. I suspect their eventual victory, and the establishment of a Maoist state in Nepal, unless we see increased Indian/Chinese/US efforts to block that. The Nepalese have made some inroads into Tibet, which could help to explain the Chinese crackdown there. A linkup between Tibetian nationalists and Nepalese Maoists must figure into some Chinese general's nightmares.

There have also been riots in China among the ethnic minorities, particularly the East Turkmen (called also the Uighur). There has been a clampdown on news stories about this, but somewhere between 20 and 150 were killed by a Chinese mob two weeks ago, in what would be called a "race riot" if it happened in the US. The entire village in which it happened has been under interdiction since then, with all the roads closed off by the PLA, and no news getting out.

Interesting times.

COUNTERCOLUMN: All Your Bias Are Belong to Us

Against the Sattelite Patrol:

Thanks to E.B. for this. Iraq Now has published a rather harsh critique of the US Marines in Iraq, from the perspective of the US Army. You these kinds of pieces every time the Army and Marines work together, usually from both sides, just like you always see a critique of the Americans from the British, and so forth.

Still, there's usually something to be gained from reading these things, just because it gives you a new perspective. The author is against the "strategic corporal" concept that Commandant Hagee was discussing in the last piece. He also thinks that the Marines made a serious mistake by using squad- rather than platoon- level tactics as their standard. This made the Marines more vunerable, and less able to respond to attacks, as they didn't have a 7.62mm machinegun in the squad. On the other hand, it also cut down on the freedom of movement enjoyed by the insurgents, who had to deal with squads of Marines everywhere rather than large-scale platoon patrols, which are easier to avoid.

He also thinks that the Marines' focus on personal ethics undercut their ability to work with the locals. Because the sheikhs weren't ethical by Western standards, the Marines didn't trust them and wouldn't work with them. The soldier probably has a good point here. I had a hard time adjusting to China for the same reason: by Western standards, the Chinese are totally unethical, liars to a man. It took a while to figure out that lying actually is ethical in China, so long as you're lying for the right reasons -- in other words, that they were trying to do right by me in their own way. Marines, who are taught from Boot Camp that personal integrity is of the utmost importance, would have a harder time with this than many.

There are several other critiques as well, not just of the Marines but the politicians running the show -- the latter of which are all entirely justified, I think. It makes for interesting reading: file under Lessons Learned.

Marine Corps News> Marine Corps' Core Values Remain Unchanged for 229 Years

Corps Values:

The Commandant gives an interview. On Veteran's Day, as on the Birthday, it's good to look back.

Thank you, all combat veterans, and all of you who have supported them.

The Adventures of Chester

More of This:

The Adventures of Chester has exactly what we need more of in war journalism: analysis informed by a solid grounding in military science. Read this post on how the writings of Mao inform the campaign in the Triangle, and in particular the reducing of Fallujah.

If the MSM could produce analysis like this, and would produce it, public opinion on Iraq would be very different than it is.