Senator Zell Miller - Printer Friendly Document

Repeal the 17th?

Senator Zell Miller has introduced legislation to the Senate that would fundamentally alter the way Senators are elected. It would, that is, restore the fashion in which they were chosen under the original Constitution:

[N]o matter who you send to Washington -- for the most part smart and decent people -- it is not going to change much.

The individuals are not so much at fault as the rotten and decaying foundation of what is no longer a republic.

It is the system that stinks. And it's only going to get worse because that perfect balance our brilliant Founding Fathers put in place in 1787 no longer exists.

Perhaps then the answer is a return to the original thinking of those wisest of all men, and how they intended for this government to function.

Federalism, for all practical purposes, has become to this generation of leaders some vague philosophy of the past that is dead, dead, dead. It isn't even on life support. That line on the monitor went flat sometime ago.

You see, the reformers of the early 1900's killed it dead and cremated the body when they allowed for the direct election of U.S. senators.

Up until then, U.S. senators were chosen by state legislatures, as Madison and Hamilton had so carefully crafted.

Direct elections of senators, as good as that sounds, allowed Washington's special interests to call the shots, whether it's filling judicial vacancies or issuing regulations.

The state governments aided in their own collective suicide by going along with the popular fad of the time.... As designed by that brilliant and very practical group of Founding Fathers, the two governments would be in competition with each other and neither could abuse or threaten the other.

The election of U.S. senators by the state legislatures was the linchpin that guaranteed the interests of the states would be protected.

Today, state governments have to stand in line. They are just another one of many, many special interests that try to get senators to listen to them. And they are at an extreme disadvantage because they have no PAC.

Miller is under no illusions about this bill's chances:

So, having now jumped off the Golden Gate Bridge of political reality, before I hit the water and go 'splat,' I have introduced a bill that would repeal the 17th Amendment. I use the word 'would,' not 'will,' because I know it doesn't stand a chance of getting even a single co-sponsor, much less a single vote beyond my own.

Abraham Lincoln, as a young man, made a speech in Springfield, Illinois, in which he called our founding principles 'a fortress of strength,' but warned that they 'would grow more and more dim by the silent artillery of time.'

A wise man, that Lincoln, who understood and predicted all too well the fate of our republic and our form of government.

It is true, of course, that the bill will not even get a co-sponsor. It seems a bit odd, and a little sad, that there should be that little support for the founding principles of the Republic. You'd like to see at least a few Senators ready to stand up and fight for them, even if they're doomed to lose.

Maybe the plan even deserves to lose--this is the first time I've heard the suggestion, and would want time to consider it before choosing a side. Still, it's not a bad idea to formally reconsider the major changes to our Republic once in a while, and whether or not they've had effects baleful or healthful. There is no interest in doing so, not even in the Senate--that glorious debating society we learned about in school has no time for this debate, nor any similar one.

IRAQ NOW ...... Media Analysis With A Sense of Insurgency

SOA:

Congratulations to everyone involved with the Spirit of America blog war! As you have probably seen elsewhere, the combined efforts of the blogs raised more than $50,000 for the Marines. Outstanding work, all.

Philadelphia Inquirer | 04/29/2004 | No guns for contractors in Iraq, Pentagon is proposing

Morons:

Lest anyone think that I am an unmitigated defender of the Pentagon, allow me to point out that occasionally the brass suggests something really dumb. Today's entry: Contractors in Iraq Should be Unarmed.

As the insurgency in Iraq remains strong, the Department of Defense has proposed a new rule for most of the estimated 70,000 civilian contractors working in the region: They cannot carry guns.

Deidre Lee, the Pentagon's director of procurement and acquisition policy, whose office proposed the rule, said it was designed to settle one of the biggest questions facing contractors: "to arm or not to arm."

It is a life-or-death issue because "we don't have the military providing security for our contractors," Lee said.

This is the same logic at work in gun control proposals everywhere:

1) There is too much crime.
2) Guns cause crime.
3) Therefore, we should reduce the number of guns.

The problem, in Iraq as everywhere else, is that the only people whose guns the government can readily reduce are the people who respect the government's authority. This is true even in American cities, where there are not and can't be enough police to be everywhere and search every home; it is far more true in an unstable foreign nation, where a large number of persons are actively warring against the government. All that can be accomplished by this is to disarm the people on our side, leaving them prey to all our enemies.

Imagine trying to drive a supply convoy across a hostile foreign wilderness. You know that there are raiders who want to destroy your convoy, and kill you personally, in order to hurt the war effort that your convoy is supplying. Your employers say, "Oh, one more thing--you can't carry guns, and there will be no military security." What do you suppose you're apt to do?

[T]op department official acknowledged that the war effort was suffering a "brain drain" of civilian workers who were fleeing Iraq because they did not feel safe.

Truck convoys in Iraq are "more like a journey through the wild, wild west," Gen. Darryl A. Scott, director of the Defense Contract Management Agency, told a conference of government and corporate contracting officials in Orlando.

"That's a reality there," he said this week. "People leave every day... . It does make operating in that environment more difficult."

Really. Imagine that. What could they be thinking?

Many workers in the region are former military personnel and prefer to be armed, said Cathy Etheredge, a manager for BAE Systems, which provides information technology in Afghanistan.

The problem with the proposed rule is that it tells contractors that they are responsible for their security, but then says they cannot be armed, said Nick Sanders, who leads the contract finance committee for the National Defense Industrial Association, a trade group for traditional defense contractors.

"It doesn't appear to be a well-thought-out, coherent policy," Sanders said. "It appears to be a one-way door where contractors will have all the responsibility and cost."

There you go. Supporters of the plan offered three reasons in favor of banning weapons:

Armed contractors would be more likely to be shot at or kidnapped. Second, as civilians, they do not follow the same strict rules of force as the military. And by picking up weapons, contractors could lose any death- and accident-insurance coverage they may have.

The first suggestion is astonishing. Armed persons are more likely to be kidnapped? Armed convoys are more likely to be attacked? If there is any lesson that should have been learned in fighting the mufsidoon, it is that they prefer unarmed targets. They prefer them very much.

As to the second reason, it is wise to have clear guidelines, and to enforce them. If such guidelines don't exist, they should be created and enforced. Making the contractors into hostages to the goodwill of guerrillas and terrorists is not the answer.

The third reason is the kind of thing that ought to be addressed through legislation or contract bargaining. Here's a proposed negotiating point: an insurance company is much less likely to have to pay out a death benefit for these contractors if the contractors aren't asked to walk unarmed through a war zone filled with people who consider kidnapping and killing American citizens to be a prime tactic.

There is hope:

Lee said the proposed rule could change, depending on contractor reaction. The official comment period ends in late May, but there is no timetable for a final regulation. In the meantime, some contractors are carrying guns.

The rule can be read here. Comments may be directed via the DPAP website. The proposal in question is "Contractors Accompanying a Force Deployed." The rule does create an exception whereby combatant commanders may, on their personal authority, issue government-owned arms to contractors if they feel it is absolutely necessary. As with all such bureaucratic "exceptions," of course, the tendency will be not to make the exception--if you follow the rule you are protected by the institution if there is a tragedy, but anyone who breaks the rule is personally responsible. Bureaucracies (of which the military is certainly one) tend to be risk averse for that reason.

This risk aversion puts brave men at terrible risk, and will make it harder to find such contractors in the first place. Please do what you can to help protect these men, and the interests of the Republic.

UPDATE: IraqNow has a post up on this topic. He suggests some additional measures that might be mentioned in the public comments:

The measure is supported by Kellogg, Brown and Root officials, who argue that they'll lose insurance coverage on employees when they pick up weapons.... The insurance for the workers is a nonissue. They can be adopted into the same risk pool as American servicemen, and pay SGLI premiums--probably elevated premiums, to reflect the brief time of their service in Iraq (military personnel pay premiums during peacetime and wartime as well, spreading the risk out over many years), but that can be figured out by actuaries, and the cost passed on to the US government.

The liability factor for Halliburton is a slightly more difficult issue. If they allow their contractors to carry firearms, over the objections of retarded bean counters in air conditioned offices who have no conception what the risk tradeoffs are in Iraq, then they potentially expose themselves directly to bank-breaking lawsuits on the part of aggrieved families.

Hey--ever hear of purchasing a rider?

Ever heard of reinsurance?

And if the insurance industry gives them a hard time, Insurance regulators could weigh in and force the issue.

It wouldn't be that hard, since supporters of the bill are proposing that we create an additional layer of expense to hire private security firms to protect KBR convoys. And presumeably someone insures them.

Fusileer Pundit also has a post, as does A Collection of Thoughts.

Spirit of America

SOA Challenge:

Just to remind everyone, the Spirit of America challenge is winding up. We of the Fighting Fusileers have been ahead, but that's no reason to stop. Remember the Tortoise and the Hare! It's not over until it's over, &c., &c. Give today!

Grim's Hall

Tip for Bloggers:

A contact of mine suggests that the correct word for referring to Islamist terrorists is "mufsidoon." This is the Arabic for "evildoer," and can be prefixed by "Saddam's" or "Osama's" as appropriate.

The idea is that Mujahedeen and Mahdi Army (Army of the Messiah) cast the enemy as soldiers of God. That makes Coalition forces the opponents of God, soldiers of the devil. Mufsidoon more correctly identifies them, and therefore, our forces likewise.

Mehr News Agency English

Helping Out:

We can thank the Honorable Clinton for giving an interview to the Arab press--Asharq al-Awsat, out of London. One of the challenges in a counterinsurgency is convincing people that yours is the winning side. Senator Clinton was helpful indeed:

The democrat Senator stressed that the U.S. is trapped in the quagmire of Iraq. It can not free itself from the country.

Referring to the Bush Administration policies as arrogant and insolent, the wife of the former U.S. president further added that Bush is not willing to admit his mistakes in Iraq, the grave mistakes that have endangered the lives of both the Iraqi people and the U.S. servicemen alike.

The mistakes have also threatened peace and stability in the region, she further explained.

Clinton said the Bush Administration did not have a plan for Iraq and did not have a full understanding of the situation there.

She said the United States was in trouble because it could not abandon Iraq, nor provide enough manpower to run the country, nor gather world allies willing to provide the necessary assistance for the gigantic task.

Thanks, doll. It'll be a lot easier now.

North County Times - North San Diego and Southwest Riverside County columnists

Echo Company:

There's a good writeup on the battle in Fallujah by reporters with the North County Times, embedded with Echo Company, 2nd Bn, 1st Marine Regiment, I MEF.

[Navy Corpsman] Duty and [1st Sgt.] Skiles said the Marine killed and most of the wounded Monday were hit with shrapnel from grenades tossed by rebels into open windows. At least two of the Marines were also shot, said Duty, whose boots were black with the blood of his comrades as he recounted the fight.

Duty said he had to fire his pistol at gunmen just to get into the building where Marines lay bleeding, still fighting off insurgents, some of whom were only 10 yards away.

"I walk into a place like that -- everyone's down -- and you just don't know where to start," he said. "You just have to calm down and think, and then it all comes to you."

Skiles said Duty saved several of the Marines, and worked to save a fatally wounded Marine by continuing CPR in the back of a humvee as it sped through enemy fire over a jarring ride to a field hospital.

Marines cited the bravery of a lance corporal who was wounded in a rebel mortar attack nearly two weeks ago in which two other Echo Company Marines were killed, and was wounded again by shrapnel in Monday's fighting.

In both incidents, they said, he ignored his own wounds to help other wounded Marines. In Monday's battle, he fought off insurgents and ran back to the Marines' lines even while wounded in three places.

Happy Birthday Sgt. Hook!!!

Belated:

Happy Birthday, Sgt. Hook. It appears I missed the big day while I was away, but now that I have returned, please accept the congratulations of the Hall.

DefendAmerica News - Profile Article

Travels:

First, a small update: I'm going to be out of pocket until Tuesday. Should be back by then.

Before I go, I would like to draw your attention to this story from the Defense Department. It is the tale of a Marine pilot who was POW in Iraq for 37 days. He's currently assigned to one of the most underreported, but highly important, units in operation: Combined Joint Task Force Horn of Africa.

CRS

CRS:

The Congressional Research Service has a new report out on the role of security forces in peacekeeping operations, including Iraq. It can be found here (.pdf warning). If the topic interests you, you'll find this to be a brief (58 pages is brief for the government) history lesson, coupled with lessons learned.

One of the most interesting sections is the "problem areas," which identifies gaps that show up regularly in operations of this type:

The second problem area is the presence of three security gaps in the ability of the international community to establish law and order in peacekeeping and other
post-conflict situations. (Deficiencies in recruitment and training systems can contribute to the first two of these gaps.) These gaps can be particularly troublesome in situations where not all parties to the conflict are dedicated to peace or where criminal networks have taken root, and where local authority has been removed or
replaced by an international intervention.

*The first of these security gaps is the deployment gap, or the failure or inability to deploy police forces as quickly as needed, or in adequate numbers to perform the mission assigned to them. This was noted in the U.S. unilateral intervention in Panama in 1989, and subsequently in some of the earliest international missions of the 1990s, for example in Cambodia. There, the UNCIVPOL mission could not perform some of its mandated tasks because it took several months to deploy CivPol components and some 10 months for the mission to reach its authorized size. In Somalia, it took nearly a full year to deploy the first dozen UNCIVPOL. In other cases, such as Bosnia in the mid-1990s, the United Nations was able to recruit only about half of the number authorized for the mission. Although deployment time apparently has been somewhat reduced as missions have become more complex, it still is not considered optimal. In addition, a gap remains in the U.N.'s ability to deploy a sufficient number of people with specialized skills.

* The second is the enforcement gap, or the inability of deployed police forces to assure the level of security needed to provide the necessary climate to conduct normal policing operations. In these cases, the police deployed often lack the necessary skills to handle the situation, in particular the military skills needed to carry out constabulary functions in hostile situations, and investigative and intelligence-gathering skills to deal with organized crime. When military forces have not been available to assist police in handling hostile situations, either because they were in short supply (as occurred in Somalia in 1993-1995) or because their mandate did not include law enforcement functions (as in Bosnia in 1996), peacekeeping operations have been compromised.

* The third is the institution gap, where the indigenous law enforcement system lacks adequate numbers of honest and efficient judicial and penal personnel, as well as sound judicial and penal institutions, and thus are unable to effectively follow-up to police work with prosecution and punishment necessary for sustainable security. In many post-conflict situations, understaffed (if not partially intimidated or corrupted) judiciaries and penal systems, lacking even basic resources, have not been able to handle effectively the increased workload that results from more efficient policing.

We have, of course, seen all of these kinds of problems again in Iraq, though one or two of the specific examples has been avoided. Unfortunately, as often is the case with government--and especially Congressional--bureaucracies, the paper is much better at identifying problems than positing workable solutions. Indeed, predictably, the suggested reforms generally involve the creation of large, new bureaucracies.

The State Department comes in for some criticism in having attempted a market-based solution:

In what was intended as a major innovation in the U.S. CivPol system... the Department of State has issued contracts (as mentioned above) for the establishment and maintenance of a reserve cadre of up to 2,000 U.S. law enforcement personnel, who would be available for international police service on short notice....

As envisioned by the bidding proposal, the new cadre of U.S. civilian police would "eliminate the requirement to conduct from scratch, recruitment, selection, and training activities each time the U.S. contributes police to an international CivPol operation." The RFP also called for the contractor to identify technical advisors, who are not police officers, who could be called upon to assist with establishing institutional capabilities in police, judicial, and corrections systems.

The State Department's decision to award contracts for the new CivPol cadre program to multiple companies, rather than one as originally envisioned, has raised some questions about whether the process will be as expeditious as originally planned. While there may be some advantages to be gained by continued competition for CivPol deployments, and the greater number of applicants from which to choose, which some may judge necessary because of the Iraq and Afghanistan missions, some analysts fear that these advantages will be offset by additional costs and delays.

It sounds to me like State's on to something, for a change.

SOAII

Spirit of America:

The contest has begun! You'll find the donate button to the right, just below my shield, or you can follow this link.

The Fighting Fusileers, HQ company, is the place to report for updates.

ROE

ROE:

I've had an email question I can't answer on the Rules of Engagement in Iraq's Marine area of control. If any of you feel competent to shed some light on it, drop me an email and I'll pass along the query.

Belmont Club

Belmont Club:

The Belmont Club today offers a couple of useful pieces of analysis on the current state of Iraq.

Welcome to Castle Argghhh! The Home Of One Of Jonah's Military Guys.

Spirit of America:

A reminder: today begins the Spirit of America campaign among bloggers. I'll update through the day, but be sure to check out The Fighting Fusileers for Freedom, HQ Company.

UPDATE: Hmm. At the last minute and without warning, the kickoff has been postponed to tomorrow. This really does remind me of the military.

New War

Big and Small Wars:

It appears that the war has entered a new phase. My conclusions are that things are about to escalate sharply; that the Bush administration is aware of it, and has decided to support escalation; and that we should expect to see, in the near future, much higher rates of casualties and an enlarged scale of warfare. There are two roads for such warfare, which I will outline below. I will conclude with some remarks on the upcoming election, and how we need to change the debate.

I. Drums at Night

The story on the Syrian firefight appears to be wrong on a critical point. The news media is claiming that the attackers were breakouts from Ramadi and Fallujah. That is highly unlikely, for two reason:

1: The numbers involved in the attack on the border were as large, or larger, than the total forces we've seen committed to battle anywhere else. With a cordon around Fallujah and Marine Recon in Ramadi, it is highly unlikely that this number of forces escaped without our notice, assembled unwatched with their mortars and equipment, and attacked in surprise. It is much more likely that these are infiltrators rather than exfiltrators, from Syria rather than from deeper in Iraq.

2: The attack was majestically coordinated, with three waves of surprise attacks carried out almost flawlessly. This is not the work of a cobbled-together force of breakouts, but of a unit that has trained together for some time.

This should not be surprising. Enemy statements and recovered evidence have suggested increased collusion between the non-state actors in the region: consider the statements, cited below, by Hezbollah's leadership and al-Sadr which are mutually reinforcing; consider also the extended tribal ties that bind so many in this region, but particularly al-Sadr and the leadership of Hezbollah; and consider the expansion of coordinated bombing of bridges on caravan routes. According to a letter published in National Review Online, 82 truck convoys have been hit in the last ten days.

The stakes in the region likewise suggest collusion, both between state and non-state actors: al-Sadr, as mentioned frequently on this page, has to win or die. The stakes are also very high for Iran, which is on the list of "Axis of Evil" nations, suffering domestic unrest against the mullahs, and which has standing border issues with Iraq and will continue to under any new government. The stakes for Syria are also high, and the reverence with which Assad regards Hezbollah suggests that he would be amenable to joining an expanded war on their side. There is every reason to believe that the war in Iraq has unified certain domestic militants with foreign opposition, which is providing (Iran, Lebanon) or at least not restricting (Syria?) overland routes, training bases, and havens for guerrillas.

II: Small Wars

If the analysis is correct--and I have seen no reason to doubt it, but could spend three days pulling up more OSINT to reinforce it--we should expect to see a wider, and harder, guerrilla war. When considering how to respond, it is not enough to look at the static situation. We have to consider not just how to respond to the threats faced today in Iraq, but to the threats likely to be faced in the future. Steps taken to address the current attacks will be met with responses from the enemy. That said, we need a strategy that isn't based on reaction to threats as they occur, but rather an overarching strategy to win this kind of war, regardless of the particular new threats which arise. "Action beats reaction" is a standing piece of military wisdom. What actions are possible? How do you beat a guerrilla war? There are two answers available, the first of which needs little argument, and the second a great deal.

The first--the standard--answer is to engage in "clear and hold" tactics. In American military history, the USMC pioneered this technique, and used it with great success in Vietnam, in contrast to the Army and air campaigns:

In Vietnam, the strategic concept of the Marine Corps emphasizes small wars. As the legendary Marine general, Victor H. Krulak, noted in his book, First to Fight, the Marines employed an approach in Vietnam -- the Combined Action Program -- that the Marines had first used in Haiti (1915-34), Nicaragua (1926-33), and Santo Domingo (1916-22). "Marine Corps experience in stabilizing governments and combating guerrilla forces was distilled in lecture form at the Marine Corps Schools...beginning in 1920," Krulak wrote. The lectures appeared in Small Wars Manual in 1940 and later adopted as an official publication.

The Marine Corps approach in Vietnam had three elements, according to Krulak: emphasis on pacification of the coastal areas in which 80 percent of the people lived; degradation of the ability of the North Vietnamese to fight by cutting off supplies before they left Northern ports of entry; and engagement of PAVN and VC main-force units on terms favorable to American forces.

The basic approach is sound, but the particulars--especially the definition of "terms favorable to American forces"--need to be updated for the war in the Middle East. Such warfighting is done with an eye toward the medium and long term, and can result in heavy casualties at times. Nevertheless, there is a century of success behind the policy.

The key features of USMC "Small Wars" as it would apply to Iraq are: keeping the regular military confined to Iraq; using special operations and air forces to eliminate training camps and supply depots inside Syria, Iran, or elsewhere; trying to maintain control of major population centers rather than trying to engage the enemy; and patrolling the regions we need to protect to secure supply lines, but leaving the areas we do not need to control to the enemy. Control the towns, let him have the deserts. In this way, you reduce the amount of damage that the enemy can do to small-scale bombings and sabotage, which kills some but leaves the majority of the population and economy untouched. Protecting the population, over time, denies the guerrillas the 'sea in which they swim,' to paraphrase Mao Tse-Tung. It also gives you time to train local forces that will be loyal to the new government, who can prosecute the war after your withdrawal.

III: Big Wars

This does not appear to be the route the Bush administration has chosen. In accord with the "Bush doctrine," they appear to have decided to fight not a small war but a big one. The underlying philosophy for such a war is sound, but it is a risk. It is genuinely dangerous, though "dangerous" does not mean "bad." Sometimes great danger is worth daring if there are great rewards. As Tolkien reminds, in the voice of Gandalf the White Wizard, "Dangerous? And so am I." So is the US military.

The Bush administration has a different answer to the question, "How do you fight a guerrilla war?" They appear to be drawing, not on the American model, but the Israeli one. Negotiation fails: guerrillas who are fighting a successful campaign use negotiation only to extort concessions while they rearm and strengthen. In addition, the guerrillas and terrorists opposed to the U.S., like those opposed to Israel, have very large goals. A negotiated settlement with someone whose goal is to see the last Western soldier (or the last Jew) out of the Middle East is unlikely to prove fruitful: withdrawing half the soldiers just means they feel they can fight harder; withdrawing from half the territory just gives them more havens from which to fight.

The West has an option that Israel does not have, which is to withdraw. The unity of our enemies would collapse if we did not provide them with a common enemy. Once that collapse occurs, much or all of their strength is wasted on infighting. After the groups have wrecked each other and the last one standing rules, in a decade or in fifty years, the West can return and fight only the straggler--you return, ally with a few of the survivors from among the opposition, and make them kings. Consider Afghanistan, where the Taliban were the strongest remnant of a shattered Mujahedeen, which once destroyed the Russian army. By allying with the Northern Alliance, tenuously holding a fraction of Afghanistan, we quickly eliminated the government and have been able to move to antiinsurgency operations with less than a tenth of the forces used in Iraq.

The problem with this approach in Iraq is that it is the approach. We could withdraw, but we just did. Fifty years back the place was under British rule. We've let the opposition sort itself out, allied with the exile and Kurdish groups, and are now making them the kings. Withdrawing again doesn't fix the problem, it just puts it off. There is a second problem, which may be called the China problem, again after Mao--once a guerrilla army has beaten its opposition, it is ripe for overthrow only until it develops nuclear weapons. Recent events have shown how close we are to seeing that even in Iran.

If negotiation and withdrawal are not options, what remains in this Israeli model is escalation. Guerrilla fighters must be forced off their game by creating situations in which time is not on their side. Instead of letting them "strike and fade," you have to force them either to attempt to hold ground, or to engage in conventional fighting. The usual two methods for this are assassination of leadership agents, which reliably causes reprisals; and an assault on a region that they feel bound, out of honor or religion or for pure practicality, to defend. By forcing the guerrillas to take the field in a conventional war, you eliminate their advantages and make them fight on the terms least advantageous: a stand up fight against a regular army. You dare them to do their worst--indeed, you force them to do it--and then you fight them down.

Does this sound familiar? It is exactly what the Marines have been doing to Saddamite elements in Fallujah. It is what Israel is doing by assassinating Hamas leadership targets with a new prejudice. Bush has changed two major policies this week as regards Israel, both of which move the US out of the "honest broker" role, and into a partisan role: the tacit endorsement of Israel holdings in the West Bank, and the rejection of "right of return." Now project forward: the Coalition has surrounded Najaf and Karbala with thousands of troops. Both Iranian and Iraqi insurgents--as well, it might be noted, as more responsible voices in Iraq--are warning that an assault on those cities would be intolerable. It is territory that the enemy has to defend.

Conclusion

As this is an election year, there is an opportunity to have this debate among the citizenry and force the politicians to adhere to what we decide. Currently no such debate is engaged. The Bush administration is not forthcoming as to their intentions, and the Kerry campaign appears to lack serious military thinkers necessary to address the question. Kerry's recent "plan" for Iraq addresses exactly none of these points, nor outlines which strategy he might use in the war. Calling for reinforcements--which is essentially what he does by asking for UN guidance and NATO forces--is not a strategy. I have seen nothing to suggest that his campaign contains anyone who understands the issue, which is exactly what is to be expected from a man whose career, inspired by his antiwar protests, has been run for two decades against "the military-industrial complex" and the intelligence community. Nevertheless, there are strategists on the Left, both inside and outside of the Democratic party. The party needs to engage them.

I said at the beginning that there are two options in Iraq, but in fact there are three. The first is the American model, "Small Wars" campaign. The second is a broader, Bush-doctrine campaign that will aim to widen the war and eliminate terrorist havens--first Fallujah, then perhaps Najaf or Karbala, Iran, Syria. The third is to fail to adopt an overall antiguerrilla strategy, attempting to bring stability through the use of military forces in a police action, or engaging in a withdrawal. Any such non-strategy will result in defeat in the medium to long term.

As it stands now, I believe a vote for Bush is a vote for option two, and a vote for Kerry is a vote for option three. We need a candidate for option one. If enough people understand the issue and can bring it forward in the campaign season, we may get one--either Bush or Kerry may move to that position if pressure is brought to bear. Ideally the election should be a referrendum on whether the Global War on Terror is fought as a series of small wars, or one big war.

What we don't need is to have a choice made by default. This is a free Republic, and we are here considering the largest of questions. It is proper to consult the citizenry, and I see no evidence that anyone in the government wishes to do so.

Firefight on the border

Firefight on the Syrian Border:

Big news from the Syria-Iraq border. As usual, the Marines killed--either five or six, depending on the source--were slain in the surprise attacks that opened the battle. There's an hour-by-hour account of the battle through the link.

The attack was well designed, with a decoy bombing followed by small-arms and machine-gun fire to pin responding forces. When they called for reinforcments, those were met with a coordinated mortar assault from two dozen positions. It sounds as if the number of enemy KIA and captured will provide some good intel. Once they'd worked through their surprises, they were steadily eaten up by the Marines, with the final kill ratio being somewhere in the neighborhood of ten or twelve to one, again depending on the source. The captures, at least as important, were over twenty.

Just in case anybody reading this thinks the Marine are being heavyhanded, do take special note of these two paragraphs in the story:

At one point, many of the insurgents reportedly had gathered in a local mosque, and Marines were preparing to bomb the building. They pulled back the attack, however, when they couldn't not get positive identification of the occupants of the mosque....

"We're trying to get the snipers in position for a shot," Major George Schreffler told the other commanders through tactical radio communications. "They're looking at guys in blue uniforms and others with black clothes and black masks. Some are using children to shield themselves. We will not take shots in which we could possibly hit children."

With one hand tied... It continues to astonish me what these young men can do.

The Onion | New Negative Campaign Ads Blast Voters Directly

Negative Ads:

Honestly, we're not far from this:

The Bush people initiated this volley of negative ads, but we won't be lured into a reactive campaign against the Republicans," Kerry campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill said Monday. "It's time to redirect the cheap name-calling away from Bush and toward those Americans who might be idiotic enough to vote for him...."

Over a series of images of America's senior citizens, the narrator of another 30-second spot says, "The Medicare drug bill is a triumph of right-wing ideology masquerading as moderate reform. The pharmaceutical-drug and insurance industries are tickled pink. Guess who's paying for it? You. Congratulations, moron. I'm John Kerry and I approved this message."

The New York Review of Books: In Search of Hezbollah

Hezbollah:

It is, I fear, time to start talking seriously about the probability of Hezbollah activity in Iraq, and what that means for the campaign in the Middle East. I'm going to try something I've seen on other blogs, and have an "open thread" on the topic--well, open as long as you're talking about Hezbollah. Thoughts welcome, posting encouraged.

The Command Post - Iraq - Marines "Dirty Deeds" in Fallujah

PSYOPS in Fallujah:

Thanks to The Command Post, we have this story:

In Fallujah's darkened, empty streets, US troops blast AC/DC's "Hell's Bells" and other rock music full volume from a huge speaker, hoping to grate on the nerves of the city's gunmen and give a laugh to Marines along the front line.

Unable to advance farther into the city [...because of orders, not enemy action... -G], an Army psychological operations team hopes a mix of heavy metal and insults shouted in Arabic--including, "You shoot like a goat-herder"--will draw gunmen to step forward and attack. But no luck this night.

Not all the operations affecting the enemy's psyche are done by soldiers attached to the Marines. Some of the most effective are these:

Laying on his stomach on a rooftop and wearing goggles and earplugs, a Marine sniper keeps an eye to his rifle site.... In his position--reachable only by scaling the outside ledge of a building--he sits for hours with his finger poised on the trigger of a rifle that fires .50-caliber armor piercing bullets with such force that the muzzle flash and exiting gasses from the weapon have blackened the bricks around the gun.

Now that's intimidation.

FreeSpeech.com

A Piper, Piping Away:

Del ovear at FreeSpeech has an article on the USMC's use of bagpipes in Fallujah. It's from CNN, which means that there has to be a bit of foolishness:

When he is not on the front-line, Farr wears a kilt when playing, and some Marines have been skeptical about a member of one of the toughest fighting forces in the world donning what looks like a skirt.

Nonsense. But if a heavy-weight wool kilt in the Leatherneck tartan isn't right for Fallujah, try the Survival Kilt.

DefenseLINK News: General: Marines Not Hampered by Rules of Engagement

Marines Cut the Rat Line:

Major General of Marines John Sattler, USCENTCOM, spoke about I MEF operations:

The general also said that coalition forces in the area are comfortable with the level of intelligence information they're getting in the area and are content to let the Iraqi Governing Council work to negotiate an end to the tense situation in Fallujah.

He noted that he feels it's important to give the negotiations a chance to succeed. "Keep in mind, our goal is not to capture the town of Fallujah," Sattler said. "Our goal is to go and free the town of Fallujah, to go in and eliminate those fighters, foreign fighters, those extremists that are in the town that have taken it away from those who reside there."

Garnering far less publicity than operations around Fallujah, Marines have stepped up efforts to shut down Iraq's border region with Syria as a throughway for foreign fighters and smugglers.

Sattler said efforts are particularly focused in an area known as "the rat line," where foreign fighters were traveling through the countryside around Qaim, near where the Euphrates River passes from Syria into Iraq.

"We had an extreme amount of success on the front side, meaning that we did find, fix, and ultimately finish a number of cells that were out there, that were facilitating this type of movement," he said.

This seems to be the result, in part, of good recon and planning:

Part of the Marines' success in tightening the border region can be attributed to their forethought in upping the number of troops they brought when they replaced the Army's 82nd Airborne Division in the region.

"When (the Marines) went out and did their reconnaissance (before assuming control of the region), they made a conscious decision to bring more so they could, in fact, work that border region very hard," Sattler said.

Ooh-rah.

Guardian Unlimited Books | Extracts | First, skin your squirrel...

Squirrel Problems?

The historian Roger Scruton explains a simple solution to the plague of squirrels troubling many places. I have to attest that his solution works perfectly--I myself had an infestation at my cabin two years back, when I was still resident in Georgia. We resolved it entirely using the method he recommends.

Personal Data Feed:

Regular readers probably know more about me than they want to know already. Still, I thought I'd mention for the interested that there's a picture of my son Beowulf in Sovay's "cat blogging," today. The caption mentions my wife, who can be seen (and read about) on her own website. She doesn't do politics or milblogging, though--just painting, sculpture, and other artwork. The photo there is a good picture of her, but be warned: like Doc Russia's wife, she is a dangerous woman.

Wouldn't have it any other way.

Spirit of America

Spirit of America:

By now probably all of you know of the Spirit of America campaign, whereby the US Marines are raising money to spend in Iraq, most especially on television stations. The idea is to help the Iraqi people get the truth, and to help the Marines make allies among the populace. Grim's Hall will, of course, participate.

Since this is taking the form of a competition, we'll be assuming a role in the Milblog brigade. Donate early and often--the competition starts Monday.

Captain's Quarters

The Rough Riders:

A contractor writes from Fallujah. I won't excerpt it; it's worth reading in full. I've been considering the question of the legal status of contractors since KOS made an issue out of people who do our kind of work. If we aren't mercenaries--as has been established--just what are we?

I think I may have sorted it out. Article 4, Section 1 of the Geneva Conventions provides that P.O.W. status applies to:

Members of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict as well as members of militias or volunteer corps forming part of such armed forces.

Section two:

2. Members of other militias and members of other volunteer corps, including those of organized resistance movements, belonging to a Party to the conflict and operating in or outside their own territory, even if this territory is occupied, provided that such militias or volunteer corps, including such organized resistance movements, fulfil the following conditions:

(a) That of being commanded by a person responsible for his subordinates;

(b) That of having a fixed distinctive sign recognizable at a distance;

(c) That of carrying arms openly;

(d) That of conducting their operations in accordance with the laws and customs of war.

Either of these terms would seem to apply. A militia is a possibility, as it is also composed of civilians under arms, directed by military authority. A Volunteer Corps, like Theodore Roosevelt's "Rough Riders" may even be a better explanation of the status of contractors. Like Roosevelt himself--who was too blind to gain service in a regular army regiment--the "Rough Riders" were men who demanded to serve their country in her wars, regardless of the demands of the bureaucracy.

I'll leave it to the lawyers to hash out which one is correct. Either way, I prefer "militiamen" or "volunteers" to "contractors," which tends to suggest that the contract, rather than patriotism, is the motivating factor. I'd like to propose that we adopt "Rough Riders" as a nickname for such contractors. I have to imagine any of them would feel honored by the name, and it shows the real spirit behind the movement.

Sgt Hook: Rooney Asks

A Partial Answer to Rooney:

Sgt Hook answers Andy Roony, based on a poll of soldiers serving with him in Afghanistan. Rooney was really asking about Iraq, of course. Maybe JarHeadDad will pass the questions on to "Arms" the next time they talk, and we can get a reply from al-Anbar province.

TVNEWS

TVNews:

I see via Doc Russia that Fox has posted an interview with our boys in Ramadi in video form on the internet.

Mailbag

Mailbag:

I'm going to post out of a couple of the letters I've seen, one of which is being passed around and has been posted elsewhere; the other, as far as I know, hasn't. I'm informed both are OPSEC safe, but I've held them another 24 hours just to be certain.

[T]he Ramadi front is designed to take heat off Falluja.... [A Moblie Assault Platoon] was called to provide relief to ' X.' XXXX says that as they moved up, the rags were performing disciplined, as he calls it, "bounding fire and movement---they knew what they were doing---even when we knocked them back, they were 'bounding.'"

The relative military discipline being shown in Ramadi has been one of the more interesting points of the war. Three "good news" points of analysis: 1) This is almost certainly the best that the enemy in Iraq has at the ready. 2) There are not many of them--a surprise attack on a rearward station is all they could manage, and they were repulsed there by a platoon of reinforcements. Confer with the often-cited Tet offensive, which threw into the fray guerrillas across South Vietnam, and even had trained sappers to dig inside the US compound. 3) These guys are not, in any sort of immediate sense, replacable. It takes months of secure training to produce a coherent unit, disciplined under fire, of a size capable of carrying out an assault like this one. The VC never recovered from the Tet Offensive. After that, the war had to be carried by NVA units, even though the VC had a relatively secure training area in North Vietnam and the underground support of China and the USSR. There are no players of that strength in the region, though possible supporters include, Syria, and Hezbollah.

Whether or not they will contribute replacement forces, or whether or not there are are foreign training areas that will be left secure because of US policy, remains to be seen. Reuters carried a story today that Iran has sent 'thousands' of such fighters. However, there are two strong caveats to believing this story: first, they were supposed to back the Shi'ite uprising, not the Sunni one. There appears to be some coordination between these, but the Army isn't reporting any sharp increase ('maybe two percent') in foreign fighters in the areas where you'd expect Iran to focus. Second, the source for the claim is The National Council of Resistance in Iran. They are an exile group that has an interest in manipulating US policy, a factor which can't be ignored when deciding whether or not to trust their reports.

Returning to the letters:

[A Marine Sergeant] got an AK round through shoulder and disobeyed LT's order for MEDEVAC. Remained with MAP for 4 hours and used an M-203 to continue fight.

Probably get a reprimand for that, but brag about it for the rest of his life. Good on him.

As MAP was entering Ramadi on Wed minaret loudspeakers were pronouncing, "This is the day you die, come forward and we will kill you in name of Jihad, bla, bla." Wpns Company Commander grabs interpreter, puts him on OUR loudspeaker and begins, "Come out and fight you goddamn pussys and fight us in the streets like fucking men!" XXXX relates that some did and, "We mowed them down."

There's the news from the Ramadi front. From Fallujah:

Early in the morning we exchanged gunfire with a group of insurgents
without significant loss. As morning progressed, the enemy fed more men into the fight and we responded with stronger force. Unfortunately, this led to injuries as our Marines and sailors started clearing the city block by block. The enemy did not run; they fought us like soldiers.

Again, these trapped enemy elements aren't replacable.

Your husbands were awesome all night they stayed at the job of securing the streets and nobody challenged them as the hours wore on. They did not surrender an inch nor did flinch from the next potential threat. Previous to yesterday the terrorist thought that we were soft enough to challenge. As of tonight the message is loud and clear that the Marines will not be beaten. Today the enemy started all over again, although with far fewer numbers, only now the rest of the battalion joined the fight. Without elaborating too much, weapons company and Golf crushed their attackers with the vengeance of the righteous.

This above letter is from a Lt. Col. Kennedy, addressed to the wives of Marines in Fallujah. Doubtless he's sugarcoating a little, but probably not too much--Marine wives are extremely tough.

If the enemy is foolish enough to try to take your men again they will not survive contact. We are here to win. The news looks grim from back in the States. We did take losses that, in our hearts, we will always live with. The men we lost were taken within the very opening minutes of the violence.... We can never replace these Marines and Sailors but they will fight on with us in spirit. We are not feeling sorry for ourselves nor do we fear what tomorrow will bring. The battalion has lived up to its reputation as Magnificent Bastards. Yesterday made everyone here stronger and wiser[.]

The Marines Have Landed, and the Situation... and indeed, it appears to be. If the politicians don't flinch, we should be able to deal the serious insurgents a blow from which they may not be able to recover.

Fallujah Gains Mythic Air (washingtonpost.com)

Mythic Fallujah:

Been reading letters from Fallujah today--I'm going to sit on them a while longer, although some of them (thanks, JHD) are said to be in the clear. Still, it sounds like the Marines agree with the casualty figures being reported out of Fallujah, except with the percentages of noncombatants--the Marines report confidence of 95% combatant kills or better, whereas the AFP is reporting statements from doctors inside Fallujah that post a worse percentage. The Washington Post, meanwhile, has this conversation:

"The fighting now is different than a year ago. Before, the Iraqis fought for nothing. Now, fighters from all over Iraq are going to sacrifice themselves," said a Fallujah native who gave his name as Abu Idris....

"Our brothers who went to Fallujah and came back say: 'Oh, God, it is heaven. Anyone who wants paradise should go to Fallujah,' " Abu Idris said.

They came back, did they? If it's heaven, what are they doing back in Baghdad? The Marines are still around.

War Reporting

Battlefield Journalism:

Another Russian piece, from the Sage of Knoxville. Why can't we get war reporting like this? From The Moscow Times:

The Iraqi insurgents in Fallujah outnumbered the Marines and were armed with Kalashnikov automatic rifles, RPG-7 antitank grenade launchers and mortars. Chechen fighters used the same weapons in Grozny in 1995, 1996 and 2000, killing thousands of Russian soldiers and destroying hundreds of armored vehicles.

Just like the Russians in Grozny, the Marines last week were supported by tanks and attack helicopters, but the end result was entirely different. U.S. forces did not bomb the city indiscriminately. The Iraqis fought well but were massacred. According to the latest body count, some 600 Iraqis died and another 1,000 were wounded. The Marines lost some 20 men.

The Marines are far better trained, of course, but the Iraqis were fighting in their hometown. The decisive difference between the two sides was the extensive use of a computerized command, control and targeting system by the U.S. military. Satellites, manned and unmanned aircraft collected precise information on enemy and friendly movements on the battlefield night and day.

Modern U.S. field commanders have real-time access to this system, allowing them to monitor the changing situation on the battlefield as no commander in the history of war has been able to do. This technology has greatly enhanced the effectiveness of aerial bombardments in the last decade. And now the nature of house-to-house combat has changed as well.

The more accurate historical analogy to the current war in Iraq is not Vietnam but, say, the battle at Omdurman, Sudan, in 1898, when Horatio Herbert Kitchener, a British field marshal, crushed the Sudanese forces of al-Mahdi by bringing machine guns to bear against the enemy's muskets and spears.

Evidence

Evidence:

Sovay cites Josh Marshall, with her own appended commentary:

The question is whether, when faced with a dire warning and given a few clear hints as to where and when, the president exerted some leadership and got everyone focused on the problem."

Evidence suggests the president failed on both counts.

Today's Secrecy News--lately no friend of President Bush--has this:

In another recent example of politically-driven declassification of ostensibly "top secret" information, the White House has released two partial sentences from the September 4, 2001 National Security Presidential Directive (NSPD) 9 on combating terrorism.

The point of the release was to document that the Defense Department had been instructed to plan for military options against Taliban and al Qaeda targets prior to the September 11 attacks.

According to Clarke's new book, the Clinton administration had made some informal inquiries about military options in Afghanistan:

And the response from the Joint Chiefs of Staff--those beribboned guys who get big jobs at Boeing and General Dynamics when they're done--was unvarying:

*It would take a very large force;
* the operation was risky and might fail, with U.S. forces caught and killed, embarrassing the President;
* their "professional military opinion" was not to do it;
* but, of course, they would do if they received orders to do so in writing from the President of the United States;
* and, by the way, military lawyers said it would be a violation of international law.

The Bush administration put the orders in writing--'ill advised or not, draw up the plans.' That looks like evidence of leadership and focus to me. Pity more of both weren't shown... oh, around 1995.

EurasiaNet Human Rights - To Bolster Stability, Uzbekistan Reins in Press

Uzbekistan:

EurasiaNet carries a Russian report that a "state of emergency" appears to be underway in Tashkent, capital of Uzbekistan:

An April 6 analysis published by the Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta is representative of the reporting by many Russian-language media outlets. The Nezavisimaya Gazeta article suggested that the militant attacks were the product of a domestic insurgency movement. "Many people in this closed and fairly poor country are unhappy with the ruling regime," political analyst Vladimir Mukhin wrote. "Peasants are worn down by officials' tyranny."

"A considerable portion of the inhabitants of the Uzbek capital polled by Nezavisimaya Gazeta describe the perpetrators of the explosions as insurgents," the analysis added. "It also seems incorrect to view the explosions as religious fanatics' revenge for the US base located in Uzbekistan."

The article went on to say that a virtual state of emergency exists in Uzbekistan. The newspaper cited an Uzbek government security source in asserting that "every suspicious individual, vehicle or apartment block was being subjected to blanket inspection in the Uzbek capital."

Articles such as the Nezavisimaya Gazeta piece directly contradict state-controlled Uzbek media accounts of the violence and its aftermath. For example, a poll published by the Vecherny Tashkent newspaper on April 6 claimed that 98.9 percent of Uzbeks believed that "anti-social forces are striving to deprive us of our main values, which are independence, peace and stability." A 99.6 percent margin supported "the actions being taken by the country's leadership, which are aimed at strengthening security and stepping up the fight against terrorism."

Meanwhile, the Uzbek militia in northern Afghanistan has withdrawn from Maimana. There was a skirmish between the militia and local fighters in another Afghan city, Kod-i-Barq, but it appears to have been very low-intensity. It's a simmering issue, and it's hard to know just what to make of it yet.

In other Afghan news, The Times of India has what may be the worst quote from Colin Powell in history:

President Bush's commitment to de-mine and repave the entire stretch of the Kabul-Kandahar highway was fulfilled. The road had not been functional for over 20 years. What was once a 30-hour journey can be accomplished in just 5 or 6 years.

That's progress!

Aaron�s Rantblog, aka Aaron the Liberal Slayer � BAG on April 15

Buy a Gun Day:

Aaron is a little nuts--I trust he'll forgive my saying so--but the sentiment is noble. He's declared April 15 to be Buy A Gun Day. Anyone who wants some advice on what sort of gun they ought to buy is invited to email me, or take it to the comments section.

INDC Journal: "Documenting the Moonbat Swarm": International Answer Protests in DC

International ANSWER:

Via Blackfive, a link to the weekend's Stalinist protests against Western success. My favorite is "psychoanalysts for peace." This is yet more evidence, if more were needed, that psychology is not a science.

IRAQ THE MODEL

Easter:

Easter is a celebration of renewed life. This was true when it was called Ostara, after the heathen goddess of the same name. It is the focus of the Christian holiday, which is about the return from death of Jesus. In time, there may be an Iraqi holiday:

The first candle

It's the day that brought me back to life. It's the 9th of April and I'm free, and they will not steel my joy again and they will not silence me. A year ago at the same date, the thieves and criminals prevented me from celebrating my freedom in the open air, and today thieves, criminals and fanatics are doing the same, but they will not steal my happiness that is making my soul fly and dance with joy and they can't stop this.

A year ago, words failed me as I met the 1st American soldier, and I still remember his name, "corporal, Adam" and all I could utter was "thank you!" how could I ever put my whole life in few words? How could I have thanked that soldier enough? How could I have told him what it meant to me to see him and his comrades--who brought me back to life--at last? Thank you Adam, Lieutenant Antonio, Captain Brian Curtis and all the coalition soldiers who I can't remember their names, and those I never met.

It's the 9th of April and I feel safe! And I don't care what those 'political experts' on the newspapers and TV channels, say about the 'occupation', deteriorated security and 'unemployment'. You can't understand this, because you never experienced real fear this long. Let me tell you about it, as I'm one of those who passed Saddam's filthy test of life.
The statue fell and with it, horror fell. You don't know what it means to be scared to death most of your life, brothers and sisters. I knew that and I faced it during the reign of evil and darkness. I was afraid to talk, I wasn't allowed to think and I wasn't allowed to feel... I wasn't allowed to love.

How dare anyone imply to me how should I feel? And who they think they are, those who try to put words in my mouth? I'm alive and I'm free, and I have the right to say whatever I feel and chose the words I like. No one will tell me again what to say and what to feel.
Yes, it's the 9th of April. I lit the 1st candle today to celebrate my 1st year, as a free man and no one will prevent me from celebrating. I, who the earth is no longer enough to contain my feelings, I who have wings now, and I don't have to carry an ID... I'm Iraqi. I have the right to wander through my country southwards and northwards, without being stopped by someone to ask me who I am and where I'm going. I'm the son of the 9th of April....

I'm the son of the 9th of April, tyrant's clowns, and you have to fear me, you who betrayed me every minute and every day, and you want to chain me again???
You know why it's impossible now? I was a slave and I never knew who I am.... and now I'm free! Thanks to all who dared to tell the truth and didn't fear the consequences. And as for you, who saved me and my people, I can't thank you enough. My voice goes feeble and my eyes swell with tears as I think of the Iraqis, Americans and all the coalition soldiers who gave their lives to free Iraq and make this world a better place. God bless their souls and all those who decided to fight to the end and never been discouraged, even in the toughest moments. I hope you can call me brother, because I'll never fail you, as you never failed me.
This time, the 9th of April has come again and in what way! The powers of darkness and evil are trying to stifle my candle with their foul breaths but this time I'm alive and free and I will face them, and I will lit it again and again... and again.

Iraq has a number of problems right now, as everyone knows. To me they look like problems with solutions:

Hopeful signs: US forces surrounding Najaf have been observing a pause in operations because of al-Arbeen, a Shi'ite holiday (that is, particular to Shi'a Islam--it has to do with the martyrdom of a Shi'ite hero). Sadr's forces in Karbala have answered by entering into a similar cease-fire. The hostage taking that we've seen lately is also a hopeful sign, as odd as that may sound, because it means that the Shi'ite insurgents recognize that they are outgunned and are turning to defensive measures.

The Sunni insurgents in Fallujah have been involved in negotiations with the Iraqi Governing Council. So far, they've made demands that aren't serious, but the USMC has made good use of the time by bringing up an additional battallion and extra supplies. We've succeeded in evacuating about a third of the civilian population of the city with no large noncombatant casualties--small enough that I can't report any for certain. Al Jazeera is reporting the death of two military intelligence officers in Falluja this morning, but I don't know if they know what they're talking about or not. They've got videotape of two dead somebodies, but whether or not they're ours I couldn't say.

If it proves that these are, in fact, two separate fights that happened to occur at the same time--it's worth remembering that we started the fight with al-Sadr, which undermines the theory that there's coordination--we'll be all right.

The Sunni insurgents probably have to be defeated on the battlefield, but there's every reason to think we can come to an arrangement with the Shi'ites. Al-Sadr's accused of a terrible crime--the murder of a superior cleric, al-Khoei, inside the Shrine of Ali. A lot of his support will fade as evidence of his guilt becomes public. Some of it won't, because it's tribal. Those who have relied upon tribal connections to his family for protection over the years will stand up and fight for him. If they lose him, they lose their protector, and that's frightening in a tribal society.

The worrying situation is if the foreign elements have been successful in unifying the opposition. Iran and Syria are backing two different horses, but if they've decided to shake hands and each back proxy forces, the fight will be a lot longer and bloodier. If we can't convince them to withdraw their support by negotiation, we may have to widen the war.

There's a third possible player, too, which is Hezbollah. The head of Lebanese Hezbollah is a cousin to al-Sadr. Hezbollah is the best guerrilla/terrorist army in the world, and would be stiff opposition if they commit to the fight. On the other hand, the Marine Corps owes them for the 1982 embassy bombing. There won't be a troop morale problem if we have to go after them, whatever the casualties--it's a debt keenly remembered.

There are those who think that we are out of our depth:

In Fallujah, you are fighting fighters. This is an integral part of their culture--to fight and not allow surrender. We're not talking about West Point here. This is a way of life. No one can win the battle in Fallujah, unless your army withdraws. That would be the only kind of victory you could achieve. Your only victory can be to minimise the loss of life--both in your forces and within the civilians of Fallujah. It is a fiercely independent and tribal system that is operated there. Our 'fixer' in Iraq learnt to shoot a gun, ride a horse and swim at the age of seven.

Fair enough. The enemy is brave. Remember, though, the Talibani who smoked scorpions? He got an admiring interview in the British press. How could we ever hope to fight such a warrior? In the Phillippines, the warrior culture ranged against us produced men who would leap out of trees with spears, facing certain death in order to kill just one American. My wife's grandfather, in the US Cavalry, saved General Black-Jack Pershing from such an assassin.

There are parts of America which can claim the same. I grew up in a hunting and fighting culture, too, in the American South. My pass-times as a teenager included racing cars down mountain backroads at speeds I smile to remember. I've carried a pistol almost every day since I came of age, and I never leave home unarmed, in case I'm called upon by fate to do my duty as a citizen to defend the common peace.

The US military certainly has a warrior culture of its own. But it has another thing that is worth at least as much: professionalism. The lessons of endless wars like this one are gathered and taught in Quantico, Virginia. There is a school there called "The United States Marine Corps Small Wars School of Excellence." They know what they are doing. Give them time, and trust, and they will carry you to victory and Iraq to freedom.

In the meantime, happy Easter. The renewal of life follows the harshness of winter. This is meant to be a promise in the cold and difficult times, a thought to warm you as you huddle by the fire. Spring is coming. Have faith.

Grim's Hall

Did Bush Do Enough?

OK. We all know that my position on the 9/11 hearings is that the attempt to assign political blame for 9/11 is more harmful than most of the good likely to come out of the hearings. I hope that the initial bi-partisan report will be taken seriously by all parties, and the attempt to find some American to blame--Bush, Ms. Rice, Freeh, Clarke, whoever--will end.

That said, I think the evidence we've seen clears the President of any wrongdoing. What he did wasn't enough to prevent 9/11, obviously. It was, however, everything we should ask of a President.

Imagine that you're the President, and that it's now 2001. You've got no background in law enforcement; you're interested in intelligence and understand how it works, thanks to your father, but you haven't been in intelligence yourself. You're informed that the biggest threat facing this country is from a group called al Qaeda, which has been the focus of counterterror efforts for some time.

"Well, what are we doing about them?" you ask.

You're informed that there are 70 full field investigations by the FBI into their activities inside the United States. There are also ongoing intelligence activities directed against them by various three-letter agencies, and coordinated by the NSC. The professionals are at work.

So, you decide to:

1) Retain Clinton's chosen head of the FBI, [Matter of public record]
2) Retain Clinton's chosen head of the CIA, [Likewise]
3) Retain Clinton's entire counterterrorism staff, [Rice's testimony]
4) Reverse Clinton's policy of never meeting with the CIA, instead meeting daily with CIA advisors, both in the White House and when abroad [R. Kessler's CIA-authorized book, The CIA at War]
5) Have your National Security Advisor meet almost daily with the head of the CIA, [Rice's testimony]
6) Direct regular questions at the NSC and CIA about al Qaeda, [Rice's testimony: "[T]he president received at these daily meetings more than 40 briefing items on al Qaeda, and 13 of those were in response to questions he or his top advisers posed."] and,
7) Order the head of counterterrorism, Richard Clarke, to develop a comprehensive plan to destroy al Qaeda rather than 'fly swatting.' [Clarke]

It wasn't enough--we know that because the Towers fell. Still, given Bush's particular qualifications and personality, it was a good approach. Bush didn't try to micromanage the FBI or CIA, recognizing that he wasn't an expert. He didn't put the usual political patronage above national security--I am sure that there are a lot of Republicans who could have filled those jobs, but Bush chose continuity of expertise over patronage.

He said, in effect, "I want you to start figuring out how to take al Qaeda down rather than trying to restrain this or that plot. You're the experts, and since you've been on this for years, you know more about it than I do myself. This is important enough that I'm not going to replace you with friends or political allies. I'll trust you. Keep me informed."

It turns out that most of the failings were structural problems inside the FBI, CIA, and other federal agencies. What really needed to be done, we know with hindsight, was not to trust the professionals, but to clean house. Clarke's book suggests that the professionals weren't that impressive:

In March 1995, a wacko Japanese religious cult, Aum Shinrikyo, released sarin nerve gas in the Tokyo subway, killing 12, injuring more than 1,000 and prompting Mr. Clarke--a Xanax commercial if ever there was one--to worry about Aum pulling the same stunt on the I.R.T. The F.B.I. told him to relax: They didn't have a file on Aum, ergo, they don't exist. Not convinced, Mr. Clarke had a chat with his new bureau liaison, John O'Neill.

"'How can you be so sure there are no Aum here, John, just because you don't have an FBI file on them? Did you look them up in the Manhattan phone book to see if they're there?'

'You serious?' O'Neill asked, not sure whether I was being funny. When I assured him that I meant it, he directed his deputy to leave the conference room and call FBI New York. A while later the FBI agent returned to the room and handed O'Neill a note.

"O'Neill glanced at it and said, 'Fuck. They're in the phone book, on East 48th Street at Fifth.'"

What ensues is not cause for comfort. First, the chemical-weapons geniuses at the Pentagon said they don't want to muddy their HazMat suits, which are in a locker four hours down I-95 anyway. So off trotted a helpful somebody from the U.S. Attorney's office posing as a city fire marshal to inspect the building. He reported that Aum was furiously loading up a rental van with boxes of God-knows-what--news that produced, at long last, an F.B.I. surveillance car. You can guess what happened: They lost the van in traffic.

In retrospect, we needed a top-down shakeup even before Bush came into office--the above happened in 1995. We didn't get it when Clinton was in office, and we didn't get it with Bush. Yet, as a new president with little experience in such matters, Bush was probably wise not to try it--he wouldn't have known just what to shake, and the destruction of the continuity of expertise could have allowed 9/11 to happen just as much as the bungling of the experts did.

I know there are things that the government should have done it didn't do. I agree that it's possible that 9/11 might have been prevented if things had been done right. I thank the commission for helping to highlight the errors and problems, which I hope we will repair for the future.

All that said, 9/11 was not Bush's fault. What he did wasn't enough, but it should have been. If the experts in their agencies and bureaus had been kept shipshape, Bush's approach would have been exactly the right one.

Power Line: World War II Memorial to Open

Memorial:

Most of you will have seen this at the Sage of Knoxville's site, but some of you--I know--don't go there. You should take a moment to look at the World War II Memorial. You should also read the comments relating it to the war in Iraq:

Look at the single column of stars closest to you. That single column of stars represents well over twice the number of American servicemen killed in Iraq in the past year.

That single column of stars represents the number of casualties we suffered roughly every six days -- week in, week out, for almost four years -- during WII. At the casualty rate we have suffered in Iraq over the past year, it would take well over 600 years to fill this wall with stars.

In your mind, line 62 of these walls up, end to end (that's somewhere close to a mile long). That's roughly the number of people who live in Texas, New Mexico and Arkansas. That's the number of people that are no longer ruled over by Saddam Hussein.

For the benefit of the esteemed Mr. Blix, that wall could also represent the estimated number of Iraqi citizens that Saddam Hussein put into mass graves in the past 10 or 15 years.

Anticipatory Retaliation:

A.R. has moved. You can now find the master of the silos at his address in an undisclosed location.

Afgha.com - Afghan city falls despite troop dispatch

News from Out East:

Uzbeks allied to General Abdul Dostum have taken one of Afghanistan's provincial captials, in defiance of the US-backed government in Kabul. The city, Faryab, fell to the Uzbek militia in spite of reinforcements from the central government.

Meanwhile, Radio Free Europe reports that the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan is still operating in Afghanistan, although the only dispatches mentioning it or its known members place it in Waziristan. The AP had an interview with a surrendered member, granted amnesty by the government of Uzbekistan.

Uzbekistan is something to watch. We've been hearing a lot more out of them for a while now. Hizb ut Tahrir has been on a publicity campaign for months, and now there are signs of life among Uzbek radicals. Those of you who love Google News might start punching "Uzbek" or "Tahrir" in now and again, to see what comes across your screen.

Ammo Red

Ammo Situation Red:

All that below being proper and true, it's worth remembering that it doesn't look that way to the PBIs: even if she isn't in the infantry. If it's hard to see the big picture when you're running low on ammo and not getting the evac you've been yelling for all night, it's surely hard to see it when you're just a journalist with no training, no gun, and no sense of the military arts at all. Some of this bias-toward-fear is to be expected, and can only be educated out with time and experience.

Carry On:

Carrying On:

Blackfive has an article on American media bias against the military in Iraq. He saw, on his commute, this Chicago newspaper misrepresenting a grieving Marine for a shell-shocked one. The UK papers ran the same picture, but got it right:

A STUNNED Marine wiped a tear from his eye after hearing a pal in his platoon had been shot during fighting in Iraq yesterday.

But the American soldier bravely regained his composure and went to join the combat.

I agree with Blackfive that this represents a kind of bias, but I don't think it's a conscious one. It arises from a complete failure to understand the military, its culture or its science. I was listening to NPR last night, and the same theme carried across. The war in Iraq was "hopeless," according to one commenter who was given several minutes--I didn't hear who he was. He said, though, that it was 'just like 1968, and you get the call from the President, and he says the Tet offensive is on. What do you tell him? I don't know. We are without any hope of victory.'

The truth is that, from a military perspective, the Tet Offensive was a complete victory for US and South Vietnamese forces:

The Communist offensive was decisively repulsed. There was no general uprising in favor of the North. The South Vietnamese army did not buckle, though operating at 50% strength because of imprudent holiday leaves. The indigenous Viet Cong were destroyed, leaving the rest of the war to be conducted by troops recruited in the North.

This kind of fight is exactly what our forces are trained to do. This is the kind of fight we should be glad to have. There is nothing more we can ask of Iraq than that the enemies of stability should be out in the field, engaged in battle with us. They are now a clear military problem, one for which the officers in the field have studied and the men in the field have trained. They are engaged in a stand-up fight with us. They can't hope to prevail, and in fact are breaking: witness today's shift on the part of al-Sadr's forces to hostage taking. Having gotten them into the field, we shall clear the field. Iraq will enter its successor government with a whole lot fewer insurgents, and witnessed memories of the abject failure of insurgency against US forces.

To those who report without understanding, however, this looks like bad news. It's scary, like the Tet Offensive was scary; there are fires and angry men with guns who hate us. The news crawl startles them--US forces engaged in fourteen cities across Iraq! What they forget, or rather never knew, is that the US forces were designed for simultaneous engagement on up to three continents. The instability won't last. The wave will break, the Coalition will bind these insurgents in fourteen rings of steel, like the one cast already around Fallujah. In a few days those who have not been captured or killed will be hiding in fear. We will be flush with victory, and in possession of a great deal of new intelligence information on who is backing these groups--whether it is official government aid from regional powers, or factional aid from folks like al-Sadr's cousin, the leader of Hezbollah. Then we can tailor the next phase of action, to take the fight to those who hoped to bring the fight to us.

No hope? Despair is the worst thing, and encouraging it is no fit use of the talents of an educated man such as NPR prefers to consult. There is always hope, even in darkness: but there is never better reason to hope for victory than while the United States Marines are still deployed in the field. The Eagle, Globe, and Anchor is a very sign of hope, hope for victory, and for liberty.

Cogicophony: A Zoo of Thoughts: The Terrorist Threat

Terror Types:

KGC at Cogicophony has an interesting debate about types of terrorism. At issue is which forms require state support, and which do not, and how each can be fought. It follows this post, where the debate begins.

U.S. Forces Fire Missiles at Mosque in Fallujah (washingtonpost.com)

The Rules Have Changed:

Today's news shows that the Rules of Engagement have loosened under USMC authority. Marines destroyed a mosque in Fallujah using missiles, after taking fire from inside of it. During the war, we were forbidden to strike at mosques for any cause--the 101st Airborne was required not to return fire when assailants hid inside the Shrine of Ali.

This strike still required approval at the regimental level. The Shrine of Ali is probably still off limits, as it's not just any mosque. The gloves haven't come off, in other words--but we may have slipped a pair of brass knuckles on underneath them.

Pulling out the stops

Pulling Out the Stops:

Well, al-Sadr proves to be braver than I expected. When he withdrew to Najaf, it looked to me like he was responding to the elders by going to negotiate. It appears, instead, he's decided to adopt Muhammed's own strategy, which is to come to conqueor.

He's reported to have taken control of the Shrine of Ali, as well as several government buildings. It's a bold play: US forces have in the past been forbidden from striking the Shrine, and probably will continue to be forbidden to do so to avoid inflaming Shi'a sentiment. It therefore makes an excellent headquarters. Furthermore, to the Shi'ite Moqtada al-Sadr's revolt must look rather like the end of the Hijira and the conquest of Mecca.

The big question is the Ramadi attacks. Fox is reporting that the forces are "thought to be" loyal to al-Sadr. That seems unlikely on its face. Ramadi is upriver from Fallujah, toward the Syrian border. It's in the Sunni Triangle and, when in 1999 Moqtada's father was killed by assassins, it's the place Saddam shipped captured dissidents to be held and questioned pending execution. Shi'ites loyal to the al-Sadr family are in short supply there.

That's something to watch, then--if the reports prove true, it's a big problem because it means either that (a) al-Sadr has succeeded in unifying, to some degree, Sunni and Shi'ite opposition to the Coalition, or (b) that the Sunni opposition is willing to allow his fighters to move freely in their region for some other cause. The first is unlikely, as al-Sadr hasn't proven popular even among most Shi'ites. The second, though, is not entirely unlikely. The most likely "other" cause is this: that Iran and Syria have come to agreement on the need to derail a free Iraq. They could be using their proxy forces, both Shi'ite and Sunni, to attack the Coalition in concert. These attacks "to the rear" have been expected, to relieve the insurgents trapped in Fallujah, but the scope of them is surprising.

If the reports prove false, the possibility of an overaching alliance of our enemies in Iraq lessens somewhat. Nevertheless, the scale of the uprising, and the surprise with which it was achieved, are worth noting. A serious response is needed, to crush the enemy forces in the field. More, however, we need to try to capture what leaders and documents we can, to see if this is indicative of a foreign alliance. If it's that, we've got some other work to do--either convincing Syria and Iran that their interests require them getting out of Iraq, or making them do so.

Samizdata.net

Chemterror:

Samizdata reports that a chemical warfare attack has been averted, in London.

Sadr II

Al-Sadr Update:

Things are looking bad for Moqtada al-Sadr. Yesterday it proved that al-Sadr had been told to stand down by the Shi'ite elders in Iraq, including Grand Ayatollah Sistani. He refused in public, but appears to have abandoned his stronghold and decamped to the holy city of Najaf. Najaf is the seat of the Shi'a elders, and al-Sadr has little support among Shi'ites there. One may reasonably hope that the elders of the faith will bring him to heel, especially if they believe the accusations in the warrant issued by the Iraqi judge that he murdered one of their number.

Try to ignore the sense of fear that seems to be permeating the news today. Drudge is showing two-day old photos on his frontpage as of this writing, which would lead you to believe that there has been a lasting insurgency, whereas it seems to have collapsed--as the Belmot Club predicted, I might add--in about 48 hours. The situation is remarkably better than it was twelve hours ago.

Meanwhile, I have to say that this story is particularly foolish: "Line between militias, civilians blurred in Iraq." There is no line between civilians and militias. A militiaman is precisely a civilian with a rifle. This is true in the United States as well as in Iraq, so there's no excuse for getting it wrong. The United States Code says plainly, "The militia of the United States consists of all able-bodied males at least 17 years of age and, except as provided in section 313 of title 32, under 45 years of age who are, or who have made a declaration of intention to become, citizens of the United States and of female citizens of the United States who are members of the National Guard."

Tartan

Tartan Day:

Welcome to Tartan Day, 2004! The "tartan" is a kind of plaid, one that is symmetrical. It is most famously associated with the Scottish clans, thanks in large part to the British military, which adopted it as a regular uniform for the Scottish regiments. You can read a bit of the later history here. However, the wearing of woven plaids as mantles or cloaks dates at least the period when the Scot Gaels were still just Gaels on Eire isle. In the early period these mantles took the form of a square of cloth, called a "brat," which was worn thrown across the shoulders and secured with a brooch. The use of this kind of cloak seems to have migrated to what we now call Scotland during the kingdom of Dal Riada ("Riada's share"), and spread across Scotland sometime after Kenneth MacAlpin destroyed the last of the Pictish nobles in the 9th century, establishing Gaelic rule.

I mentioned the clans I belong to below, but what isn't as well known is that there are tartans which don't pertain to clans. Some of these are called "district" tartans, which can be worn by the natives of a place. The state of Georgia has one, in recognition of the importance of the Jacobites of the Clan McIntosh in defending the colony against the Spanish, particularly at the Battle of Bloody Marsh. There are also tartans called "corporate" tartans, which can be worn by any member of an organization. The United States Marine Corps has one, called the Leatherneck. There are also "universal" tartans, which can be worn by anyone, and "trade" tartans, which are--I gather--copyrighted designs of particular weavers.

Wearing the short, or "military," kilt is properly done according to uniform regulations. The great kilt, which in Gaelic is called the Breacan Feile, is not worn in a uniform way. It permits a great deal of artistry and individualism. You can find a guide to it at the Wild Highlander's site.

Celebrating the 1745 rising, Sir Walter Scott wrote this song, which was used in his novel Waverly to rouse the clans to battle:

There is mist on the mountain, and night on the vale,
But more dark is the sleep of the sons of the Gael.
A stranger commanded--it sunk on the land;
It has frozen each heart, and benumbed every hand!
The dirk and the target lie sordid with dust;
The bloodless claymore is but reddened with rust;
On the hill or the glen if a gun should appear,
It is only to war with the heath-cock or deer.

The deeds of our sires if our bards should rehearse,
Let a blush or a blow be the meed of their verse!
Be mute every string, and be hushed every tone,
That shall bid us remember the fame that is flown!

But the dark hours of night and of slumber are past;
The morn on our mountains is dawning at last;
Glenaladale's peaks are illumed with the rays,
And the streams of Glenfinnan leap bright in the blaze.

[The young and daring adventurer, Charles Edward, landed at Glenaladale, in Moidart, and displayed his standard in the valley of Glenfinnan, mustering around it the Mac-Donalds, the Camerons, and other less numerous clans, whom he had prevailed on to join him. There is a monument erected on the spot, with a Latin inscription by the late Dr. Gregory.]

O high-minded Moray!--the exiled--the dear!--
In the blush of the dawning the STANDARD uprear!
Wide, wide on the winds of the north let it fly,
Like the sun's latest flash when the tempest is nigh!

[The Marquis of Tullibardine's elder brother, who, long exiled, returned to Scotland with Charles Edward in 1745]

Ye sons of the strong, when that dawning shall break,
Need the harp of the aged remind you to wake?
That dawn never beamed on your forefathers' eye,
But it roused each high chieftain to vanquish or die.
O! sprung from the kings who in Islay kept state,
Proud chiefs of Clan Ranald, Glengarry, and Sleat!
Combine like three streams from one mountain of snow,
And resistless in union rush down on the foe!
True son of Sir Even, undaunted Lochiel,
Place thy targe on thy shoulder and burnish thy steel!

Rough Keppoch, give breath to thy bugle's bold swell,
Till far Coryarrick resound to the knell!
Stern son of Lord Kenneth, high chief of Kinntail,
Let the stag in thy standard bound wild in the gale!
May the race of Clan Gillean, the fearless and free,
Remember Glenlivat, Harlaw, and Dundee!

Let the clan of grey Fingon, whose offspring has given
Such heroes to earth, and such martyrs to heaven,
Unite with the race of renowned Rorri More,
To launch the long galley, and stretch to the oar.
How Mac-Shimei will joy when their chief shall display
The ewe-crested bonnet o'er tresses of grey!
How the race of wronged Alpine and murdered Glencoe
Shall shout for revenge when they pour on the foe!

Ye sons of brown Dermid, who slew the wild boar,
Resume the pure faith of the great Callum-More!
Mac-Neil of the Islands, and Moy of the Lake,
For honour, for freedom, for vengeance awake!

After the collapse of the Highland army at Culloden in 1746, the victorious Lowland Scots and their British allies banned the wearing of the kilt for a time. But it was resurrected in their service, when the Highlanders went forth wearing it to tame the world for them.

UPDATE: I see that most other bloggers participating in Tartan Day mention the Declaration of Arbroath. Grim's Hall mentions it from time to time, although as a living piece of the political arts rather than simple history. See here and here for two examples.

Op VR

Operation Valiant Resolve:

In addition to the fighting around Sadr City, Operation Valiant Resolve has begun in and around Fallujah. US Marines are taking mortar fire as they begin the evacuation of the city. Scroll down for some words on the situation for Spanish and Salvadoran troops, who are also engaged, although--unlike the American forces--not by choice.

The American engagements are necessary for the stability of the successor government, which takes power at the end of June. If al-Sadr is the murderer he's rumored to be, having him at the head of a private army on the outskirts of Baghdad is unhealthy. That there should be a militia in Sadr city is reasonable--it's a Shi'ite area in a heavily Sunni region of Iraq. As in the Edict of Nantes, the possession of arms guards them from similar oppression to that which they suffered during Saddam's regime. That a murderous gamesman should lead that militia, however, is intolerable.

Fallujah is an obvious weak point, and the actions of First Marine will be the key in handing over a stable province to the successor government. The Spanish troops, though, are a problem. As the Belmont Club correctly points out, the fact that everyone knows they are pulling out means that they are in danger of being routed. There is no alternative but to reinforce them with forces that are plainly not going to withdraw, and that means Iraqi forces.

Telegraph | News | 34 killed after Shia call to revolt

Al-Sadr Gets Scared:

Muqtader (also Moqtada) al-Sadr, always called a "firebrand" by whoever is writing about him, has inherited a lot of followers from his father's fame. He's a politician as much as a cleric--the fellow has worked every angle he's come across since the invasion began. There are also lingering rumors that the assassinations of a number of Shi'ite clerics in Iraq have been done at his orders, to solidify control of Iraq's Shia muslims under his voice.

Last week, the Coalition arrested one of his aides in connection to one of these killings, that of Abdul Majid al-Khoei, who was stabbed to death inside the Tomb of Ali in Najaf. In response, al Sadr has called the Shia to revolt. Thirty-four are dead already.

My reading of this is that al Sadr is playing for his life. He's got a number of loyal followers, but a lot of other followers who are partisans of his father's, but who wouldn't approve of an assassination inside the Tomb of Ali. Al-Sadr can't afford to become associated with that in any sort of authoritative way. He needs the Coalition to release his man, and stand down from claims that might suggest al-Sadr was guilty by association. Not only might he lose a lot of his power base, but he might open himself up to revenge from the broader Shia community.

Al-Khoei isn't the only cleric al-Sadr is rumored to have had killed. At the time of the Najaf bombing over the summer, in which Baqir al-Hakim was killed, there were rumors that it was part of al-Sadr's attempt to take over. There were even rumors that the Coalition might arrest him.

Of course, there are rumors about everything in Iraq. Almost none of them prove to be true. There is a tipping point on these things, though, and al-Sadr knows it. This arrest is going to read like a confirmation in the minds of many Iraqis. Al-Sadr has to change the subject, and make the Coalition afraid to touch him or his people. His life depends on it, and he knows it. As a consequence, we see the risk of a real battle developing in this conflict between him and the Coalition. He'll pull out all the stops because, if he doesn't, this could be the endgame for him.

UPDATE: The morning proves that things are worse for al-Sadr than thought. An Iraqi judge has issued a warrant for his arrest in connection with the murder of al-Khoei. Although the report says this was done months ago, it's only been made public today. Meanwhile, Ambassador Bremer, head of the CPA, has branded al-Sadr an "outlaw," and US gunships are over Sadr City. Enforcing that warrant will be one of the hardest pieces of postwar Iraq.