Although "most" of the scenarios they studied resulted in a US victory, all of them were very costly. The happy case is already bad:
This defense comes at a high cost. The United States and Japan lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of servicemembers. Such losses would damage the U.S. global position for many years. While Taiwan’s military is unbroken, it is severely degraded and left to defend a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services. China also suffers heavily. Its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war.
There are two additional warnings contained in the report on the study. The first is that the worst, "Ragnarok" scenario -- one in which Japan chooses to stay neutral and the PRC finds a way to keep US bombers from playing a significant role, an admittedly difficult task -- results in even more terrible losses.
In total, the United States lost four carriers, 43 cruisers and destroyers, and 15 [nuclear attack submarines].
That outcome ends in the PRC conquering Taiwan, and the US withdrawing in abject defeat.
The second is contained in a later section of the report, which analyzes why the CSIS report has much cheerier outcomes than internal, classified US military war games. As bad as this is, it is a much rosier picture than the one the military has been coming up with during its own studies.
4 comments:
In war games during the Cold War, Blue Team carriers always beat Red Team subs. The referees would not allow carriers to be sunk or put out of action.
Considering that all of China's forces are right next to Taiwan, and that the great majority of American forces are scattered all over the world, a Chinese victory seems to be a foregone conclusion.
The same consideration applied to the United States' war with Imperial Japan, which did not prove to be a foregone conclusion in Japan's favor. That said, WWII was the most costly of all wars in American lives -- so far.
Will China be polite enough to give us time to identify the fighting admirals and retire the ones whose first thoughts are of D.I.E?
Who is “we”? The powers that be want rid of any remaining admiral who resists DIE.
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