Winds of Change.NET: David's (Nuclear) Sling: The EMP Threat

EMPs:

Winds of Change today has a report, drawing from Congressional and other sources, which suggests that the United States could be wiped out by a single nuclear weapon. The population would survive the initial blast, because it would be detonated so high -- but the electromagnetic pulse (EMP) would wipe out most of the circuitry and electronics in the nation. The US, as a first world, 21st-century country, would cease to exist.

The aftermath of that is almost impossible to imagine, but it would certainly include: mass starvation, as the networks of food provision fall apart in the absence of most of the aircraft / trains / etc, which now all work on electronics; disease; the collapse, not only of the American economy, but of the world economy, which is largely driven by American consumption; and worldwide chaos, as the nation that guarantees the world's overall security vanished from the scene.

The report suggests immediate moves to contain the threat, mostly pre-emptive:

We must make it difficult and dangerous to acquire the materials to make a nuclear weapon and the means to deliver them. We must hold at risk of capture or destruction anyone who has such weaponry, wherever they are in the world. Those who engage in or support these activities must be made to understand that they do so at the risk of everything they value. Those who harbor or help those who conspire to create these weapons must suffer serious consequences as well.

To be effective, these measures will require vastly improved intelligence, the capacity to perform clandestine operations the world over, and the assured means of retaliating with devastating effect.

That is to say, these measures cannot be effective. If "vastly improved intelligence" could be bought or easily made, we would have done so. There is very little that can be done, for example, to "vastly improve" our intelligence capability where a North Korea is concerned.

The recommendation for a ballistic missile shield is more reasonable. A ballistic missile is the only effective way for a potential enemy to boost a nuke to the required altitude. The ability to shoot down such a thing -- already a serious concern of the US military -- would largely mitigate the threat.

Another suggestion was to improve our civilian capability to recover from such an attack. This is trickier than the report suggests, though, as it requires a redundancy of manufacture that is ongoing. It's not enough to stockpile some extra generators and the like in a shielded location; we have to continue to stockpile new material for the entire nationwide grid (and, where our overseas forces are concerned, the global grid) as technology improves. This raises the cost of such increases, and would tend to brake economic and technical growth.

Of the panel's suggestions, the ballistic missile shield is the best option. It's worth recognizing that there is a serious threat, but one that requires the enemy to hit a narrow window. We should devote whatever resources are needed to close that window. It will be cheaper, not only than the results of a successful attack, but even than the other methods of attempting to avert one.