Still, this is not the problem:
[A] grim testament to our deeply poisoned information ecosystem — one that’s built for speed and designed to reward the most incendiary impulses of its worst actors. It has ushered in a parallel reality unrooted in fact and helped to push conspiratorial thinking into the cultural mainstream. And with each news cycle, the system grows more efficient, entrenching its opposing camps....The problem is that waiting for better information has not made conspiracy theories seem less plausible. It remains possible that Epstein killed himself, just as we are being told: that he was broken-hearted over the loss of a life of wealth and freedom, and the certain prospect of spending the rest of his days in misery. It's possible that every single system that would have monitored him failed, and that they did so all at the same time, and he spotted his moment and used it.
At the heart of Saturday’s fiasco is Twitter, which has come to largely program the political conversation and much of the press. Twitter is magnetic during massive breaking stories; news junkies flock to it for up-to-the-second information. But early on, there’s often a vast discrepancy between the attention that is directed at the platform and the available information about the developing story. That gap is filled by speculation and, via its worst users, rumor-mongering and conspiracy theories.
However, this time, Occam's razor points toward a conspiracy to commit murder. Corruption happens to be the simplest explanation for the cascade failure of obvious protections against the death of the most valuable prisoner in the entire system. It is much easier to believe that one of the many extremely rich and powerful people to whom he posed a threat called in a favor from the mafia, and that the mafia called in a series of favors (or extended offers of new ones) to its extensive set of contacts within the prison system in New York. If all the payoffs were favors, there will be no money trail, and we'll likely never find out which billionaire or millionaire made the request.
That may not be true, but its plausibility doesn't hang on people being participants in a poisoned information stream. It's more plausible even today than it was two days ago: new details have emerged that he was just recently taken off suicide watch; that his cellmate was just removed, unusually leaving him completely alone; that he happened to have been moved from cells that were constantly monitored by CCTV to cells without any such monitoring; that guards left him alone and unsupervised for hours at a stretch, in spite of procedures calling for 30 minute checks....
This is a problem that is akin to the one that happened when Lee Harvey Oswald was shot down by Jack Ruby, in full view of everyone and while under the direct protection of US officers. We've waited a long time now for better information, but ultimately no better explanation has emerged. It's possible he was really not part of any sort of conspiracy, and there was just a cascade failure of systems in which we had unreasonable confidence. If people choose to believe the simpler explanation, though, it's not irrational to do so. It's an application of a usually-reliable heuristic.
It's just that there are huge consequences to adopting the mental model that follows from the conclusion. Perhaps the best thing is to remain open to both possibilities, as both remain possible. Then you don't have to come to any uncomfortable conclusions with dangerous consequences. You just have to accept an obvious truth, which is that we all live in much greater ignorance than we'd like to think. Ultimately the truth of much of the world is outside our grasp, now and forever.
12 comments:
It's not just the press and fake news. Federal law enforcement of all stripes has been torching their store of goodwill among the public for the last decade to the point that nobody trusts them.
The thing is, it doesn't even require that another person came into Epstein's cell, strangled him, and made it look like a suicide. It's entirely possible that someone got a message to Epstein (through a guard or another prisoner) that if he did not take his own life, people he cared about would be hurt or worse, and then to set up the situation where the only two guards on duty (already overworked in a negligently understaffed facility) had other things to do than check on him. Such a plan does not even require complicity by the guards.
I generally oppose conspiracy theories because they attempt to make sense of a world that is largely senseless. The simplest explaination is often the true one. And one of my favorite adages is "never ascribe malice to a situation that can adequately be explained by incompetence". It IS true that someone who already had made a suicide attempt saw an opportunity due to neglectful guards, the lack of a cellmate, and a system less concerned with carrying out its responsibilities than cutting corners to save costs, and took it (and his life).
HOWEVER, all that said, the cascade of failures, combined with the very strong motives of the rich and powerful connected to Epstein, and the number of influential people who had already tried (and failed) to shield him makes for a strong case that his death made too many otherwise uncomfortable people rest easier in a manner that bears scrutiny. I will not say that he was murdered, or even compelled to commit suicide. But it would not surprise me to find out that he was, either.
Second paragragh should read "it IS possible" rather than "it IS true".
Federal law enforcement of all stripes has been torching their store of goodwill among the public for the last decade to the point that nobody trusts them.
There's definitely been some torching, but police of all sorts remain one of the most highly trusted institutions according to Gallup's confidence in institutions poll. There's also the partisan aspect: you'll find people who are absolutely sure of the FBI's patriotism and reliability when it is investigating Trump, but equally sure that James Comey's efforts were aimed at hurting Clinton's chances (even as the rest of us are sure that he was intentionally doing his best to cover for her, and part of a plot to derail Trump that turned into something like a coup attempt against the President). Whether you think that ICE are stormtroopers who should be disbanded, or rather that the ATF are, depends on where you sit.
Weirdly, though, 'the criminal justice system' (including prisons, such as the one where this happened) are very much on the low range of public trust. I mean not that it's weird that the criminal justice system scores so low: it deserves to do so. Our prisons are complete failures at reforming people, and reliably lead to brutality and abuse against individuals committed to them. I mean it's weird that we have such high trust in police at the same time that we have such low trust in the system the police feed via their practice.
Grim - I view that to be similar to the low regard for the US Congress as an institution despite the fact that people view their specific Representative at least somewhat favorably. Decent local policing, or at least the absence of visible scandal in the local force, builds trust that is absent when the focus is shifted to more distant institutions.
Sure, Grim, but I see the police and the prosecutors as two different animals. I think prosecutors often over-charge the accused as a tactic to coerce plea bargaining, and I don't really blame cops for that practice among lawyers.
Master of Conspiracy theories and watching the livestock graze in Conspiracy land, here. *Raises Hand*
I am usually a few years ahead of the average crowd on several intel related topics.
to our society that we no longer have a way of determining mutually-agreed facts.
Oh America still does. For example, whatever NASA tells Conservatives Red Or Leftist Blue.. you all believe it... heh.
That's commonality.
NASA, Operation Paperclip. Not something the media knows about.
Perhaps the best thing is to remain open to both possibilities, as both remain possible. Then you don't have to come to any uncomfortable conclusions with dangerous consequences. You just have to accept an obvious truth, which is that we all live in much greater ignorance than we'd like to think. Ultimately the truth of much of the world is outside our grasp, now and forever.
That's actually what the genius level pros and intel analysts do.
They analyze the situation as if Path A was true. Then reset forget everything, and follow the situation as if Path B was true. Path A and Path B may be mutually exclusive, but with the same "data points".
This counters personal bias points and by connecting the two sets of analysis together, they can piece together... "manipulation points". Meaning, things that are common that should not be common and data points that tie together that should not tie together. Or data points that should tie together but cannot be.
Replicate and multiplicate this via quantum parallel processing and someone should be able to manage 8 threads, with or without backup.
8 completely different theoretical fractal off branches. This is not needed for regular intel work. It is needed however... if your own organization is full of traitors and you report to them or need to work with them.
This is not thinking 12 steps ahead in grand master chess.
This is playing 8 different chess games against 8 different chess masters, all while playing a meta game of using the matches to manipulate or predict or observe situational data points that will only crop up during the matches.
This is not something high IQ individuals can do via focus specialization. It is a task for poly maths or idiot savants. Well, now we have quantum computers, but before that, there was psychic readers.
I and others like me, do not have access to data and information the rest of you lack access to. I have access to the same data as most normal civilian and military personnel has, for the public non classified reports, or the classified whistle blower leaked material. The difference is not in the data points, but in how the data points are connected and processed. Quantum vs Newtonian direct simplified Occam's Razar. Occam's Razor actually cripples people's analysis abilities. It is not simplicity that is needed, but parallel multiplicity of a fractcal nature. Whoever came up with the bright idea of using OR to confuse things for the public, did a good gray smoke job however.
Ymarsakar on August 12, 2019 at 10:13 am said:
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There are Fusion center technologies that can mind jack someone from a distance using frequency vibration technology (not released to your civilians). It’s called gang stalking online.
It is practical and feasible to kill Epstein from a distance indirectly, especially if it led to him killing himself. Too bad there he wasn’t tinfoil, that might have blocked some of the microwave power wavelengths ; )
Welcome to the 21st century, American slaves of the Deep State and Federal Reserve. Get used to the power of your nobles hidden and overt.
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This was one of the comments removed or censored because it was too "conspiracy" on a topic about Epstein conspiracies. By conservatives, not Leftists.
Some conservatives, who refuse to believe in certain conspiracy theories, are okay talking about conspiracies. Just not the real ones.
They are gatekeepers. They have to be, as the truth is a little too disturbing to grasp. So on a topic on which Epstein conspiracies are thrown around, that topic I wrote about was "censored like porn and scam ads are".
See how that works, humanity. As expected.
Grim: perhaps part of the difference in respect is that people understand that the beat cop has "skin in the game" in a way the attorneys don't.
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