CDR Salamander was one of the original Milbloggers. He remains one of the best and clearest thinkers on naval and national policy. Today's piece is illustrative of his insight, and will be clarifying for any of you who read it.
He's missing, in his chart study, the fact that in an age of ICBMs, space-based weapons, nuclear submarines, and cyberwarfare, oceans no longer matter. Airlifting soldiers and equipment, too, cannot carry the numbers necessary except for occupation troops after the war is won or lost.
He's also missing the likelihood that the next war will be won or lost with the forces in place; reinforcements will be very difficult to provide for the reasons he describes, and there may well be no combat loss replacements because the pace of modern combat and casualty and equipment loss rates will be so high that even an in-place arms and training industry would be unable to keep pace.
That emphasizes the importance of what he says in the rest of his post.
He also didn't mention, in his chart study, that the over-the-pole routes make the PRC and the US nearly next door neighbors.
And that the PRC is nearing a first strike capability with its globe-reaching hypersonic missiles that are nearing operational status if not already there. And in a first strike use, the PRC won't need more than a handful.
SpaceX can’t yet, but will likely soon be able to, move large formations with speed globally. It is airlift and sealift today, but that’s likely to change — for the US only.
Just an old carpenter here, but I can see a problem- China can build stuff. A LOT of stuff. Like, for example, drones. In quantities that absolutely dwarf anything we can do. And at quality levels that are astounding. Why do people insist on prepping for the last war? First off, anything worth fighting for, is not going to fought in some backwater place. It is going to be on the ground , in the air, on the web, and in space, right here. And most will not even know it is a war till a bit of time goes by. Things will just not work anymore. Stuff will mysteriously break. People will get sick. The economy will get the suck. And our capacity to respond will be nil. We are not going to saying, oh, gee, wish we had built those troop transports. It will be, oh, shit, DC is out of power, been down for a week, no comms, anyone in Omaha know when the water will be back on? BTW, got a spare transformer? Any amoxicillin? "Dude, did you hear about LA?" The most important thing we could do, to strengthen this country, is to bring back core manufacturing capacity. Nothing else even comes close, IMO. If you can't make it, you got nothing.
SpaceX can’t yet, but will likely soon be able to, move large formations with speed globally.
1) What are you considering large formations?
2) Rockets are horribly vulnerable during the launch phase. If you're expecting a graceful landing on a patch of flat earth, those rockets are horribly vulnerable in that phase, too. And they'll be landing in a hostile environment, or so far from the front their troop cargo will be useless.
3) The PRC's first strike capability is today or tomorrow. SpaceX won't be until next month.
4) Reusable though those rockets may be, assuming a successful landing, those still will be one-way, single-use missions given the logistics of recovering the rockets.
So, as you know we currently maintain an Immediate Response Force mostly out of the 82nd Airborne that expects to be able to deploy a company of paratroopers within 18 hours, with the rest of the battalion following rapidly and the rest of the Brigade Combat Team following quickly. That's not a vast array of forces, but that's what we can do right now with existing airlift. It's only enough to seize a bridgehead, and would need very substantial air and fire support to hold long enough to be relieved in quantity.
I take that as the model for what could be built out to a more rapid deployment of BCTs, in a similar modular fashion, once we can move them with rockets. It's not going to happen tomorrow, as you say; but CDR S is talking about what we can do tomorrow, if we make some decisions now.
Raven's point, though, is key. Right now production capacity favors China, and Ukraine suggests that could be more decisive than better technology. Rapid replenishment seems to be important because of the highly destructive qualities of disposable munitions like drones.
9 comments:
He's missing, in his chart study, the fact that in an age of ICBMs, space-based weapons, nuclear submarines, and cyberwarfare, oceans no longer matter. Airlifting soldiers and equipment, too, cannot carry the numbers necessary except for occupation troops after the war is won or lost.
He's also missing the likelihood that the next war will be won or lost with the forces in place; reinforcements will be very difficult to provide for the reasons he describes, and there may well be no combat loss replacements because the pace of modern combat and casualty and equipment loss rates will be so high that even an in-place arms and training industry would be unable to keep pace.
That emphasizes the importance of what he says in the rest of his post.
Eric Hines
He also didn't mention, in his chart study, that the over-the-pole routes make the PRC and the US nearly next door neighbors.
And that the PRC is nearing a first strike capability with its globe-reaching hypersonic missiles that are nearing operational status if not already there. And in a first strike use, the PRC won't need more than a handful.
Eric Hines
Thank you for this.
SpaceX can’t yet, but will likely soon be able to, move large formations with speed globally. It is airlift and sealift today, but that’s likely to change — for the US only.
Just an old carpenter here, but I can see a problem- China can build stuff. A LOT of stuff. Like, for example, drones. In quantities that absolutely dwarf anything we can do. And at quality levels that are astounding.
Why do people insist on prepping for the last war? First off, anything worth fighting for, is not going to fought in some backwater place. It is going to be on the ground , in the air, on the web, and in space, right here. And most will not even know it is a war till a bit of time goes by. Things will just not work anymore. Stuff will mysteriously break. People will get sick. The economy will get the suck. And our capacity to respond will be nil. We are not going to saying, oh, gee, wish we had built those troop transports. It will be, oh, shit, DC is out of power, been down for a week, no comms, anyone in Omaha know when the water will be back on?
BTW, got a spare transformer? Any amoxicillin? "Dude, did you hear about LA?"
The most important thing we could do, to strengthen this country, is to bring back core manufacturing capacity. Nothing else even comes close, IMO. If you can't make it, you got nothing.
SpaceX can’t yet, but will likely soon be able to, move large formations with speed globally.
1) What are you considering large formations?
2) Rockets are horribly vulnerable during the launch phase. If you're expecting a graceful landing on a patch of flat earth, those rockets are horribly vulnerable in that phase, too. And they'll be landing in a hostile environment, or so far from the front their troop cargo will be useless.
3) The PRC's first strike capability is today or tomorrow. SpaceX won't be until next month.
4) Reusable though those rockets may be, assuming a successful landing, those still will be one-way, single-use missions given the logistics of recovering the rockets.
Eric Hines
Rockets also demand horrendous quantities of fuel.
So, as you know we currently maintain an Immediate Response Force mostly out of the 82nd Airborne that expects to be able to deploy a company of paratroopers within 18 hours, with the rest of the battalion following rapidly and the rest of the Brigade Combat Team following quickly. That's not a vast array of forces, but that's what we can do right now with existing airlift. It's only enough to seize a bridgehead, and would need very substantial air and fire support to hold long enough to be relieved in quantity.
I take that as the model for what could be built out to a more rapid deployment of BCTs, in a similar modular fashion, once we can move them with rockets. It's not going to happen tomorrow, as you say; but CDR S is talking about what we can do tomorrow, if we make some decisions now.
Raven's point, though, is key. Right now production capacity favors China, and Ukraine suggests that could be more decisive than better technology. Rapid replenishment seems to be important because of the highly destructive qualities of disposable munitions like drones.
You're welcome. There aren't a lot of the old Milbloggers left.
Post a Comment