The Apple Harvest Festival

Waynesville celebrated its annual festival as scheduled this week, although it was still canceling events as recently as last weekend. I went with my wife, and we found a very heavy crowd for the occasion. This may be partly because not everywhere is open, including the much-larger Asheville still being mostly in recovery.

One of the groups present was a small collection of Protestants singing hymns a cappella and occasionally preaching their faith in the truth of the Bible. Nobody told them they were at the wrong party, though if you preferred beer or marijuana oil to biblical exegesis both were also available. So was barbecue, mashed potatoes, apples (of course!), baked goods, and many kinds of art. Pretty much something for everyone, including the many dogs in attendance, for whom there were drinks for free and costumes for sale. 

Waynesville's going to have a hard time rebuilding its lower section, called "Frog Level," which was badly flooded by the nearby stream during the hurricane. Its main street is on a fairly high bluff, however, and survived mostly intact. 

The town is named after Founding Father "Mad Anthony" Wayne, having been established by one of the soldiers who fought under him during the Revolution. It's also where the last battle in the Civil War was fought, at least in the eastern United States, when Thomas' Legion of Indians and Highlanders surrounded and obtained agreement to surrender from the last active Union detachment in the region, only to have the Legion surrender themselves instead when word of Lee's surrender arrived in town.

Good to see them at least getting a start on a return to normal. It's a pretty little town, and home to my favorite pub in the Carolinas.

UPDATE: An official statement by Haywood County, the local government, about what is and isn’t open. 


I’m surprised that 215 is back open so quickly. Both that and 276 are high mountain roads with exposure to wind and flood. 

UPDATE: See new post above for a fuller description of the conditions of these roads.

Racism in Politics

A hundred years ago, politics in the South were explicitly racist. At some point that stopped; one might argue about when, but for a long time explicitly racial appeals have been off the menu. Almost everyone regards that as an advance, including myself. 


Here’s an ad that showed up in the mail. It doesn’t mention the word ’race’ nor the name of any race; it depends for its effect on you knowing that things like quotas and hiring are targeted that way. I’ve been turned down for Federal jobs because I don’t have the right demographic background; they didn’t even ask about my qualifications before telling me I was disqualified. 

So, fair play, because it’s true? Or out of bounds, because it is racist/sexist?

Engineering Contest

Knowing when you need advice is a good thing. 

The road through the Pigeon River Gorge is indeed in a challenging place. There will definitely be future floods with the power to destroy it. A contest to come up with the best approach is a great idea, and shows a willingness by the government to be informed by private thinking that is encouraging.

Well, When You Put it That Way...

 


I might actually get enthusiastic about my vote.  More than a little truth in it, I suppose.

From Twitter.

Communication in an Emergency

Earlier this year I got my ham radio license and so during the recent hurricanes I paid attention to emergency communications. Then I did some research to sort out what I think would be the best way to handle communications if the cell network and electric grid were down. Here are the useful bits of what I learned for anyone interested in preparing for the next disaster. 

By way of caveat, I'm new to ham radio, not any kind of expert, and obviously you should assess your own situation and come to your own conclusions for emergency preparedness. I do hope for those not familiar with the topic that the following provides some good starting points for your research, and I would be very interested in your thoughts and knowledge.

As you can guess, probably the best individual emergency communication technology is satellite. There are satellite phones, but a quick look shows them to be $800 or more and require a subscription. A common option used by hikers, etc., is the Garmin InReach Mini 2, which is $400 for the item plus a $15 per month subscription for GPS tracking and satellite texting. There is also satellite internet, like Starlink, but that requires electricity. These really aren't too bad, but there are much cheaper, if less reliable, options.

The Ion

A very short dialogue, the Ion by Plato has Socrates discussing artistic interpretation with a rhapsode, whose job was to perform Homer to the delight of audiences and the award of prizes. The argument is straightforward; you can read it in just a few minutes if you wish, and you won't have trouble following the argument without much commentary (but here is some anyway, if you like).

It is an early salvo in Plato's war against poets and similar figures (Ion is not quite a poet, just a reciter of poetry who can also expound his thoughts on its meaning). This war is carried on at much greater length in the Republic and Laws. There, however, Plato is especially concerned with poets who assign to the divine beings immoral acts and motivations; here, Plato has Socrates question whether Ion is really capable of understanding well enough to do any of the things he claims to do. We might analogize to our own culture's desire to imbue pop culture icons with moral clarity as well as whatever physical beauty or talent they may have; why else care what actors or singers endorse politically?

Socrates here does something that the later dialogues avoid, which is to endorse (perhaps ironically) the idea that the rhapsode is in fact inspired by the divine directly. He makes an analogy of his own, to a magnet:
The gift which you possess of speaking excellently about Homer is not an art, but, as I was just saying, an inspiration; there is a divinity moving you, like that contained in the stone which Euripides calls a magnet, but which is commonly known as the stone of Heraclea. This stone not only attracts iron rings, but also imparts to them a similar power of attracting other rings; and sometimes you may see a number of pieces of iron and rings suspended from one another so as to form quite a long chain: and all of them derive their power of suspension from the original stone.... For the poet is a light and winged and holy thing, and there is no invention in him until he has been inspired and is out of his senses, and the mind is no longer in him: when he has not attained to this state, he is powerless and is unable to utter his oracles.

Many are the noble words in which poets speak concerning the actions of men; but like yourself when speaking about Homer, they do not speak of them by any rules of art... and he who is good at one is not good any other kind of verse: for not by art does the poet sing, but by power divine. 

Now if that is true then the poets who are inspired to ascribe to the divine beings various immoral acts or impulses do know what they're talking about because they are directly informed by the divine. That would greatly complicate the later Plato's arguments against poets who write such things; it is the philosopher that has the problem, because the poet is channeling divine energy and inspiration into their work.

The commentary I linked warns of the danger of hubris to the poet or rhapsode in making the claim, and suggests that they are required then to engage philosophy on its own terms in order to justify their positions. Yet the philosopher has no divine inspiration to compare with this; logic and analysis, like mathematics, model the world as well as the human mind can do it, but the poet has direct inspiration from beyond the veil. Or so they claim, and so Socrates here appears (ironically?) to grant. 

It seems reasonable to say that Ion doesn't really have that kind of direct connection to the divine, no more than our own celebrities; but what about Homer or Shakespeare? Or, as you might prefer, what about the Biblical poets and prophets? Inspired perhaps by the divine, they have composed works of art that have moved the hearts and minds of generations of humanity, though translated into many different languages and taught to people who have very different cultural assumptions and practices. Many today still strive to structure their lives according to the words of such poets and prophets; and very few are inclined to reject them in favor of philosophy, but rather tend to try to find a way to accommodate their philosophy to their faith in such poets and prophets. 

As usual, and following Plato's example, I leave the matter open. What I first and always liked about Plato was the invitation he offered to all of us to try to understand and participate in these ancient discussions. 

Safe Passage

Following the rapid deaths of the leaders of Hezbollah and Hamas, Israel has made a peace proposal:
Netanyahu offers a deal: those who hand over hostages will receive permission to leave Gaza (granted immunity and safe passage).

.. Netanyahu: Hamas will no longer rule Gaza, this is the beginning of the day after. To the Hamas terrorists - whoever holds the hostages and lays down his weapon, we will allow him to live and whoever harms them - blood on his head

Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana posted a message in Arabic on X: "A year ago he was a hero, now he is annihilated. Where will you be in a year? Return the kidnapped, lay down your weapons, save your souls." - to the people of Gaza.
That's the best offer they're likely to hear today. 


There could be peace by tomorrow if they were as rational about the situation they have made for themselves. 

Asheville Resumes Normal Search and Rescue

One of the hardest-hit areas has decided to end emergency search and rescue operations, returning to normal procedures. 
Thousands of volunteers checked and re-checked at least 15,982 households, helping worried loved ones find reassurance that their friends, family and neighbors were safe.

The scale and success of these volunteer efforts in the emergency should be encouraging to all.  

'The Opposition is Crazy'

In general, I dislike appeals to psychology in politics. I don't mean this as a criticism of those who work in psychology out of a sincere desire to help particular individuals who are suffering. I'm talking about the attempt to paint your opponents as crazy. Most likely your opponents aren't crazy; they're driven by interests that diverge substantially from your own, to the point that the course of action that seems obvious and correct to you seems crazy to them. 

Nevertheless, as the excellent British documentary The Century of the Self points out, psychology captured the imagination of the leadership in the early 20th century and never let go of it. It captured their imagination partly because it terrified them, suggesting that the human beings they led were actually wild animals driven by unconscious forces that were basically irrational. However, the real key to the elite love of psychology was the fantasy of control it offered: as those few who understood the secret drives and forces at work, we could master and manipulate them -- and, thereby, exert real control over the rest of humanity.

Today I see this at work on both the left and the right. At Hot Air today, here's a whole post about how much mental illness there is on the left. On X, here's a post about why Democrats are having trouble with young men that asserts, inter alia, it's because young men are crazy. Especially the white ones.
Third, we’re facing a mental health and social isolation crisis. Young men are lonelier and struggling with mental health issues at higher rates, partly fueled by social media and the erosion of traditional community institutions (churches, men’s groups, etc.). White men in America are four times more likely to commit suicide than any other group. This is a national crisis, and we’re barely talking about it.

Fourth, there’s an identity crisis. Gender roles and societal expectations are shifting (which is a good thing!), and young men are left wondering where they fit in. Without positive role models, many gravitate toward toxic figures like Donald Trump, because at least someone is speaking to their frustrations—however inartfully (which is being generous). Democrats haven’t done enough to offer better alternatives, though I think we’re starting to, with people like Tim Walz, Pete Buttigieg, and Doug Emhoff stepping up as strong role models.

Fifth, forming relationships—especially romantic ones—has become harder. Economic pressures and the rise of online dating have created new dynamics that are disincentivizing young men (and women, for that matter) from building meaningful connections. This only adds to their sense of isolation and fuels resentment, particularly toward women and those who are economically better off.... 

We can’t keep acting like white men don’t have real issues. Everyone is suffering from something, and everyone deserves to have that suffering addressed by their government. If we address these issues with the same seriousness we give to other communities, we won’t win them all—but we don’t have to. We’re building a multicultural coalition to move this country forward, but we can’t ignore the real challenges young white men are facing.

An aside: I'm not sure that anyone deserves to have the government address their suffering -- haven't they already suffered enough?  

Leaving that alone, though, the Hot Air post begins on the relatively solid ground that a lot of actual diagnoses have been given to young liberal women. Even that is doubtful to me: I think you get a mental health diagnosis essentially anytime you ask for one, because that's the only way to get your insurance to pay for whatever it is you want, and the psychologist/therapist/doctor/whomever wants to get paid. Thus, I don't think 'more mental health diagnoses' actually demonstrates more mental health issues: I think younger people are more likely to seek out psychology/therapy than older people, women than men, and liberals than conservatives for what amount to cultural reasons. If old conservative men went to therapy at the same rate as young liberal women, in other words, I'd assume they'd receive diagnoses of some sort at the same rate -- i.e., approximately 100% of the time, so that the money can flow. 

It is interesting that Hot Air views the gender issue as already a mental health issue, while the liberal poster views the changes in gender identity as a good and healthy thing that is nevertheless provoking mental health issues (apparently by not providing 'better alternatives,' which may begin with the fact that the poster himself seems to think that fake-combat-veteran-and-non-CSM Walz represents a better alternative).

What really is driving this deep division isn't, I submit, craziness. It's interest. The administrative state directly employs or supports a vast percentage of our population. Its interests and theirs are aligned to such a degree that they will tend to support it. 

Because that state has become ossified and thereby nonfunctional, however, it is harming us all. Also, as Weber knew from the beginning, the administrative state is inherently corrupt, and creates a class of administrators that rules in its class interests in a way that diverges from the public good. The interest in significant reform (or replacement) is therefore also quite large. 

Both of these collections of interests are rational, rather than the working of some deep irrational urge. We do need reform, but those deep and powerful reforms will definitely disrupt the rice bowls of tens of millions of people. It's going to cause real pain when the reforms come. 

To my way of thinking it still needs to be done, and ultimately it's better to do it in a planned and intentional way than to wait for the eventual unplanned collapse. I can easily understand why public school teachers shudder at the thought of a thoroughgoing reform of the way we educate children, though; or academics of academia; or Federal/state employees of the civil service; or those who have obtained degrees in social sciences the revocation of the power of Human Resources over corporations and society; or those who are heavily invested in the big corporations, the loss of regulatory barriers to entry for new competitors; etc. 

Clearing all that away is wise and necessary, but the considerations about how much suffering it will entail are rational ones. Your opponents may sometimes scream and wail as they contemplate it, but they are not thereby crazy.

Operation Airdrop

I’ve been talking about all the volunteer help and donations we got during the recent hurricane. Smoky Mountain News wrote up an article about the volunteer air supply effort for those who would like to read more. 

Crime Up Significantly

We've talked about the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting many times since this blog's inception decades ago. One of the talking points of the Biden administration has been that crime has been falling during its tenure; that seems to be out of order with the evidence of our eyes, but such evidence is anecdotal, not statistical. 

Well, it turns out the eyes have it.
When the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate fell by 2.1%. This quickly became, and remains, a Democratic Party talking point to counter Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime.

But the FBI has quietly revised those numbers, releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5%. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.

The Bureau – which has been at the center of partisan storms – made no mention of these revisions in its September 2024 press release. 

John Lott, the author here, has been on this for a while. I admit that I initially took the UCR statistics at face value, as most of the ways I was familiar with seeing them manipulated happen at the local level rather than the Federal level. Douglas warned me in the comments to the post on murder rates that major cities were choosing to omit themselves from the statistics, which is a local-level manipulation but on a grand scale. 

(Also, here is an Obama-era exception in which the Feds were changing rates by changing definitions, though that change appears to have been ideological rather than strictly manipulatory: they wanted rape understood differently from the traditional definition of 'physically forced to have sex.')

This, however, is apparently the FBI putting its own finger on the scales at the Federal level. Lott notes that this kind of major 'stealth edit' is becoming a standard practice.

The actual changes in crimes are extensive. The updated data for 2022 report that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. The question naturally arises: should the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed?...

The FBI isn’t the only government agency that has been revising its data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics massively overestimated the number of jobs created during the year that ended in March by 818,000 people.

If you're going to go that far towards destroying your credibility as a source of data, why not wait another month to publish the revisions? Obviously the desired effect was achieved -- the headlines were that crime was 'down,' and the statistical revision won't make the NYT or CBS News. Still, you could have avoided even having it here by putting off your revisions a short time. 

DOJ Thinks Firefighter Math is Racist

Now, here's a subject I do know something about: firefighter examinations in North Carolina. I've taken several of the certification exams in the firefighter series as part of my training as a volunteer; I'm also a fully certified Technical Rescuer in rope rescue, water rescue (Swiftwater and still water), and wilderness rescue, and those certifications come out of the same department (the Department of Insurance, whose elected head is ex officio State Fire Marshal as well).
[T]he lawsuits... claim that tests are racist because blacks fail them at a higher percentage than whites, and require cash awards to be paid to those blacks who failed them. Most blacks generally pass the tests, and the lawsuits do not explain how the tests can be racist against only some blacks. Blacks who passed the tests are excluded from the financial payouts.

Last week, Durham, North Carolina settled with the DOJ, saying blacks failed the tests required to become a firefighter more often, and “Employers should identify and eliminate practices that have a disparate impact based on race.” It said the Durham Fire Department must pay nearly a million dollars to people who failed the test, and hire up to 16 of them.

While the DOJ said the tests were not relevant to actually being a good firefighter, an online practice test suggests that it is directly relevant, that people could die if such firefighters were hired. One question asks if a building is 350 feet away, how many 60-foot hoses would be needed.

The tests are of uneven quality at best. The way they work is that the questions are drawn at random from a large database of test questions that were approved in advance, and the instructor has no way of knowing which questions will appear. The test is administered by a proctor, so the instructor doesn't even see the test on the day of the test. 

The intent is to foster honest testing, but the effects entail that there is no guarantee that the firefighters will have been taught the material on which they are tested. The testing database is only reviewed occasionally, so there are reasonable odds that a question might appear that is out of date. Two examples: in the helicopter rescue operations test we were asked one question about an outdated practice dating to pilots who would have been trained on Medievac in Vietnam; on another occasion, we were asked multiple technical questions about standards for Type I Harnesses, which no longer exist because that entire type was disqualified as acceptable by the NFPA standard a long time ago.

I've also seen test answers that were outright violations of logic. For example, once we received a question about how much heat a device could be exposed to before needing to be replaced. The answers were, I believe, 100 degrees, 200 degrees, 240 degrees, and 300 degrees. Logically only 300 could be correct given that only one answer was acceptable, because if you were exposed to 300 degrees you were also exposed to at least 240, 200, and 100 as well. However, the correct answer was (IIRC) 240, even though being exposed to 300 degrees would exceed that standard also.

So there's a lot of cramming and memorization, just stuffing your head with the exact technical figures that are likely to turn up on a test. Almost none of it is relevant to an emergency, as the decisions about what equipment you will have on the occasion were made long ago when the stuff was purchased -- and the purchases were made by people who had ample leisure to check the technical standards and be sure they were correct. 

I don't think the tests are racist, unless there's a racial disparity in the ability to memorize trivia. I do think they're not the most useful way to test qualifications. As for the one question they ask in the article, maybe it's helpful to know that you will need six hose sections; but probably you aren't going to have an exact measurement of the distance, and you'll just keep adding hose until you get there. I have trouble imagining an occasion when you'd park the apparatus 350 feet away from the fire you wanted to fight anyway; more likely you'll be parked a lot closer, and using the hoses to link multiple apparatus together to boost pressure (and, in rural environments without fireplugs, to increase your water supply or to enable tankers to tie in and out as they go to get more).

The whole system could usefully be rethought. The DOJ's effort, however, is not likely to improve it because it isn't aimed at the parts that don't work well.

VDH on Harris' Mythology

The noted historian raises many of the strange things we are asked to believe in spite of evidence to the contrary, or serious omissions.

My favorite of these is that she was raised in a "middle-class" household. This is meant to make her sound like an ordinary American, as almost all of America thinks of itself as "middle class" even though that isn't statistically feasible. 

Yet to be 'middle class' means less to be part of an economic category, and more to have certain values. Both of her parents were college professors, one feminist and one Marxist, each deeply critical in its way of that cultural 'middle class' that they refer to as the bourgeoisie. (In this she is very like Obama, except that both of her parents were aliens and she mostly grew up not in Hawaii but in a foreign country, Canada.) College professors earn a comfortable living; the only reality behind the claim that she was 'middle class' comes from the fact that her parents divorced, leading to straitened circumstances she would not have experienced if they had done that most 'middle class' thing and "stayed together for the children."

As we discussed some time ago, what she actually comes from is a caste -- the Brahmins -- that is so famously upper-class that its name was assumed by the historic elite of Boston. Her values are the values of the academic heights that can continue to entertain fantasies like Marxism, generation after generation, because they are so insulated from pragmatic realities. Vladimir Lenin wrote a book about why Marxism hadn't come true more than a hundred years ago, but Marxists and 'Marxian' economists and historians like her father remain gainfully employed at universities around the world. 

Oh, and she likes Glocks. Sure. 

Columbus Day

Today Columbus Day is celebrated, in the words of Joe Biden as a monument to Italian-Americans. It's still better than his replacement's version.

As we stand on the brink of another age of exploration, let us not forget to celebrate the spirit that drove those earlier explorers to seek new lands and go beyond known frontiers of knowledge. We may ourselves know children who will go on to explore farther reaches yet. They will need courage and confidence. Knowing they come from a heritage of such feats will be helpful to them.

Let's go to the stars. Ad astra per aspera.

'Not Worse than Landmines'

The least discriminate weapon in common military use is the landmine; they are nevertheless very commonly used because of their military utility. One of the AI bros in Silicon Valley thinks he's thus got a great argument for building killer robots:
'The U.S.’s adversaries “use phrases that sound really good in a sound bite: Well, can’t you agree that a robot should never be able to decide who lives and dies?” Luckey said during a talk earlier this month at Pepperdine University. “And my point to them is, where’s the moral high ground in a landmine that can’t tell the difference between a school bus full of kids and a Russian tank?”'
Unlike rifles, which are the weapon of democracy and a tool of equality, automated killing is a tool of oligarchy. The ability to manufacture and deploy large numbers of landmines that will kill anyone who comes close is an industrial ability that favors the state, not the individual. Things that seem justifiable by analogy to landmines are things wisely avoided. The world would be a better place without them.

At War Again

The US is deploying THAAD to protect Israel in its current war. I support this war, and Israel, but did Congress debate this entry into a regional war at all? Did it even become a matter of debate in the Presidential campaign? You’d think that it might, given that the Democratic administration has a base divided over the war.  

Democrats control 2/3rds of the elected branches. How much democracy is really going on here? We keep hearing that it’s important, and on the ballot. Is it really?

Full anti-Musk freakout mode

I've been re-reading with pleasure a John Ringo 2010 scifi adventure called "Live Free or Die," about a one-man engineering/entrepreneurial powerhouse's effort to combat an extraterrestrial invasion. It's an enjoyable romp, but on this reading I'm noticing a remarkable pre-figuring of the Elon Musk phenomenon.

When the action starts, hostile aliens have emerged through a galactic gate and cratered Earth's economy by demanding all its heavy metals as tribute. Our hero is a down-on-his luck ex-IT engineer who makes ends meet by multiple odd jobs. The hostile aliens being only one of the alien races in contact with Earth, the hero takes a stab at finding any non-heavy-metal terrestrial product that might interest the friendlier ETs, and stumbles by luck on a substance that has an irresistable psychic effect on them.

Abruptly the richest man in the world, the hero quickly applies his new leverage to master alien technology, resist the bad-guy ETs, and launch mankind into a new era. Naturally he incurs the wrath of government bureaucrats and the press in a way that quite sharply resembles the current anti-Musk clown show. This book being written before iPhones (to judge by the references to Blackberries as the ultimate in net-linked accessories), Ringo is unlikely to have had Musk in mind, but it's great fun to see how good his guesses were. That's one of my favorites parts of scifi, anyway, seeing which authors guessed trends early. Bonus points if the author is one of the few conservative free-market enthusiasts publishing in the field.

"Live Free or Die" follows the basic Heinlein juvenile-series formula: the protagonist is posited as Everyman, but of course is unusually bright, self-directed, trained in basic science in engineering, and Boy Scout to the core. Plunged into conflict, he rises to the occasion, vaulting through level after higher level of influence and crisis, until he saves the world. A good example is the highly entertaining "Have Space Suit--Will Travel," a book I'll never get tired of.