Many people would probably claim that Climate Change is the biggest threat, and if you are one of those who is persuaded by what they call the "consensus" narrative that is also a plausible answer. Skeptics (including myself) are unpersuaded by this one; but if you're not a skeptic, the claims look pretty terrifying. I could accept "Climate Change" as a plausible answer coming from someone who was on the consensus side.
Nuclear war? It was a longstanding answer, and in an era in which Russia and China are both acting punchy -- while Iran is acting like it already has the bomb, and Israel definitely does -- I could see how this was a good answer even today. So, sadly, "Nuclear War" is a plausible answer.
You may have other suggestions, but you can see what kind of threats might reasonably fit in the frame of "X poses the biggest danger to the world in 2024." The Economist, however, thinks the answer is... well, you can probably guess. The Washington Post is at least a little more circumspect, listing him as only one of two threats that together imperil not the world but merely democracy. The New Yorker suggests that we must "survive the Constitution" in order to face this threat.
Elite opinion is clear, I guess. It just isn't plausible.
UPDATE: Related.
8 comments:
To paraphrase one of the Trump memes, the threat is not Trump but that his election would mean the elite are not as in control as they and others feel (or wish to be.)
With particular reference to climate change, nee Global Warming, nee the Coming Ice Age, the matter has yet to be established as in any way a threat. This comes, not as a skeptic's response to "consensus," a claim long since debunked, but by the refusal of those talking climate change-as-threat to discuss the context within which the matter exists. That context includes such factors (the list is far from exhaustive) as life being lush during extended periods of much higher atmospheric CO2, other extended periods of much higher temperatures, that those periods don't correlate with each other, and 400k year ice cores from opposite ends of Earth that indicate that rising atmospheric CO2 coincides with or lags planetary warming, rather than precedes it. The Threat-ers won't even say why we should care about planetary warming beyond their inchoate Climate Change Bad mantra.
Regarding Trump as threat, given the sources of that...worry...it's plain that he can't be all bad.
Our Constitution as threat--How Do We Survive the Constitution?--there's the source, again. But that hysteria has existed at least since Woodrow Wilson and his disdain for our Constitution and his open preference for Rule by Experts.
The "concerns" need to be taken seriously, not because the concerns are legitimate--they are not--but only because their sources and and supporters have so much influence, and within our government jurisdictional levels, so much power.
Eric Hines
Maybe instead of a list, the journalists could set up a competitive threat tournament, as they do for college basketball championships. "Global Warming" being a top seed, likely.
I find it odd and worrisome that, in some circles, "Christian Nationalism" earns a bracket slot; while, say, "Islamic Hegemony" is not even a contender.
I'll be putting my bet down on "Runaway Inflation", I suppose.
I think the greatest threat is the increasingly dysfunctional nature of Western societies. See my post Head-Heart-Stomach for some thoughts.
https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/68434.html
Concerning AI, I'm not very concerned about AI systems pursuing their own goals in an exponentially-uncontrollable fashion and harming or destroying us (humans) in the process. What I am worried about is people taking the output of AI systems too uncritically and making bad-to-disastrous decisions as a result. There have been plenty of examples of this with relatively-straightforward algorithmic systems...see for example
You Better Go to Raw Data
https://ricochet.com/946310/you-better-go-to-raw-data/
and
Blood on the Tracks
https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/43911.html
Recall that President Biden informed us that the biggest threat to US democracy is the MAGA Republican.
Recall that President Biden informed us that the biggest threat to US democracy is the MAGA Republican.
And Biden has yet to explain why he's so adamantly opposed to Making America Great Again.
Eric Hines
Eric,
I think it's because if America is Made Great Again, Biden won't be able to Build it Back Better.
LittleRed1
LR1,
Biden has set the bar low, these three years, for Building It Back Better....
Eric Hines
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