Polls and Parties

Polls and Parties

Several years ago it seemed that every time I picked up a poll, it revealed Americans divided 50/50. In election after election, the results were too close to call. I began to wonder whether the issues were so confusing that everyone was, in effect, flipping a coin.

Lately the results are more lopsided. Not always in the direction I'd prefer, but at least we seem to be developing a consensus on some issues, which (oddly) reassures me that people are attempting to apply judgment, even if mistaken, rather than random chance. Even so, it's not always possible to guess how people are going to approach an issue merely by finding out whether they self-identify as Democrat, Republican, or Independent.

Pollster Scott Rasmussen seems to have hit on a categorization that's a better predictor. He divides the public into the "Political Class" and "Mainstream Voters," a division that corresponds roughly with big-government and small-government sympathies. Rasmussen explains:

The Political Class Index is based on three questions. All three clearly address populist tendencies and perspectives, all three have strong public support, and, for all three questions, the populist perspective is generally shared by Democrats, Republicans and those not affiliated with either of the major parties. We have asked the questions before, and the results change little whether Republicans or Democrats are in charge of the government. . . .

The questions used to calculate the Index are:

• Generally speaking, when it comes to important national issues, whose judgment do you trust more - the American people or America’s political leaders?
• Some people believe that the federal government has become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests. Has the federal government become a special interest group?
• Do government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors?

The categorization is not a strong predictor of political party. When Rasmussen introduced it in March 2009, 37% of "Mainstream Voters" were Republicans, 36% were Democrats, and 27% were Independent. Though more Republican and Independents were Mainstream than were Democrats, a bare majority even of Democrats were Mainstream. The Mainstream/Political split was a better predictor of the source of paychecks: 22% of government employees were aligned with the Political Class, while only 4% of private sector workers were.

The Mainstream/Political split is a strong predictor of views on many of the hot topics of recent years:

(Now to experiment with my new tool:)

• Is human activity causing global warming? "Yes," said 80% of the Political Class, but 60% of Mainstream Voters disagreed.
• Who had a favorable view of the Tea Party protests in April 2009? Fifty-one percent (51%) of Americans, but only 13% of the Political Class shared this view. This question also accurately predicted party affiliation, where the approval rates were Republican (83%), Independent (49%), and Democrat (28%).
• Are tax hikes bad for the economy? As of April 2009, 58% of Americans thought so, including 74% of Mainstream Voters and only 19% of the Political Class.
• Is it very important to improve border enforcement and reduce illegal immigration? In April 2009, 66% of Americans thought so, but only 32% of the Political Class agreed. Is it important to legalize the illegal immigrants currently here? The answer is "yes" according to 74% of the Political Class but only 48% of Americans in general.
• Is the U.S. headed in the right direction? "No," say 84% of Mainstream Voters this month. "Yes," say 67% of the Political Class.
• Should ObamaCare be repealed? "Yes," say 56% of all voters this month, a number that doesn't change depending on whether the respondent has health insurance, but does depend heavily on categorization as Mainstream (76%) or Political Class (at or under 13%).
• Are free markets better than government management of the economy? Likely voters answer "yes" at the 75% level. Among Mainstream Voters, 90% prefer the free market, while only 37% of the Political Class agrees.
• Is the U.S. a more positive force in the world than the U.N.? "Yes," say 71% of voters, including 79% of Mainstream Voters and only 45% of the Political Class.
• Should the Ground Zero Mosque be built? "No," say 62% of Americans, including 77% of Mainstream Voters, but 68% of the Political Class disagree. (The same poll shows that 85% of voters now say they are following the story closely, up from 51% a month ago.)

The Mainstream viewpoint, always a majority, is gaining even more traction with the American public. In March 2009, the Mainstream/Political split was 55% to 7%. By September 2009, the split was 62/4. In January 2010, it was 65/4. "Undecideds" clearly are drifting to the "Mainstream" viewpoint, which is good news both for those of us with libertarian bents and for everyone who's getting tired of all those charts showing the growing disparity between income and benefits for federal workers in comparison with everyone else. The closer November gets, the more interesting I think it may be. Per HotAir, 15 Senate seats may be in play, including Washington, Wisconsin, and California.