Jewish Holidays

Apparently sunset locally to wherever you are begins the Jewish holiday of Rosh Hashanah, followed by Yom Kippur, the day of atonement, with another major festival right on beyond that. I discovered this when trying to reach out to a Jewish contact who is, of course, preparing for this event.

Whenever I am reminded of Yom Kippur's existence, I recall also a joke told by Isaac Asimov in his first Treasury of Humor. It has some great jokes, including many ethnic ones that Asimov didn't feel any embarrassment about telling in those days; including also a lot of Jewish jokes, which he felt especially delighted to relate. Here is the joke, as well as a note on the risks of humor:



Happy holidays, if any of you are planning to commemorate these occasions; may you have a meaningful time. 

9/11 and the Bab el-Mandeb

Overnight, Houthi militias crossed to the center of the Bab el-Mandeb strait and took an island in the middle of it. This is a cyberpunk story of a band of misfits using widely available frontier technology to take on giants, at least initially with success. The Houthis made such a rapid and aggressive advance into territory held by their enemies because their command elected to encourage them with an AI-generated fake of their enemy commander ordering his forces to retreat. It turns out that, though the order was fake, the resistance that Saleh's forces were capable of was not so great that it couldn't be overcome with a push. However, it helped that the Houthis could use Claude for targeting their missiles -- a usage that Anthropic generally won't license to the Pentagon. 

They won't be able to keep that island, of course, should we decide to take it back. It is what is called in military science "a Forlorn Hope." With these Islamist movements the promised reward can be delegated to Allah, who will allegedly reward anyone who dies in the operation with paradise; the Houthis are Fiver Shi'ite Muslims, aligned with the Twelver Shi'ites who run the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and what is left of Iran. Iran claims it does not control the Houthis, but the Houthis are functionally a proxy with IRGC advisors.

Opposing them are rag-tag Yemeni government forces who have Saudi and American advisors. Not for the first time!
But hanging over the US effort are the memories of years of controversial targeting support American forces provided to Riyadh during the Obama and first Trump administrations that critics said contributed to a high number of civilian casualties.
Naturally, since the Houthis are very difficult to distinguish from civilians themselves and they take shelter among civilian populations. That has been a universal constraint in all of these wars we have fought since 9/11 happened 25 years ago today. 

Five years ago, I posted my 9/11 poem for the last time. I was wrong to say the story had ended; some stories never do, like roads that go ever, ever on. The old al Qaeda is dead, but sandal-wearing guerrillas are still showing off captured American equipment, what very well may be an AI clone of bin Laden's descendant gave a speech celebrating it -- the US reported him dead in 2019 -- and there is little doubt that the United States will not find it tolerable to have Bab el-Mandeb closed, no more than we could tolerate having our skyscrapers knocked down with hijacked jetliners. 

Unprincipled


I guess everyone understands by now. 

The Invincible Prior Assumption

The judge admonished Long for carrying the gun and told him he has to think before he acts.

"Fortunately, you weren't injured, but nonetheless, you had a gun there in the first place which was poor judgment," he said. "And what do you need a gun for protection in a mall, in the first place?

What indeed could possibly go wrong at a mall that might require a gun for protection? For an instructive example, let's look at the actual facts of the precise case that was in front of this particular judge at the time he said this.

A shooting at a Michigan mall in July ended when a 19-year-old drew his own pistol and shot a man who had already taken one life and was firing wildly.

The 19-year-old was sentenced to two years probation after this act of civic service at risk of his own life, following the admonishment by the judge for his foolishness in carrying a gun. 

Happy Birthday, Jimmie Rodgers!

He was born 9/8/1897, so I'm a day late with this. Here's a few of his less well known songs.




Do it Once Right

The I-40 saga turns expensive, but they might be avoiding what the British like to call 'a false economy.'

"Getting rid of the driver was a little bit of a false economy..."

Taking the trouble to get it right this time might prevent another disaster like the one provoked by Helene's fury.
In some places along the 5-mile-long worksite, the bedrock is exposed. In others, it’s more than 50 feet below the surface.... Reaching the deeper bedrock requires longer steel piles, which has increased the estimated cost and timeline to complete these repairs....

As planned, the reconstruction is extremely robust. The combination of roller-compacted concrete walls, interlocking pipe pile walls and associated elements are designed to withstand forces that were exerted by the Pigeon River during Hurricane Helene. It is intended to make the interstate more resilient to the hydraulic forces associated with future extreme events.... Experts from every discipline of engineering have been involved, working collaboratively instead of one after another like most projects. Each discipline overlaps with others — leadership, hydraulics, geotechnical, geomorphological, environmental, structural — creating an incredible team of engineers. 

Now, my faith in government to get it right is not very great; but at least they're talking about trying to get it right. We'll see. So far it's nearly two years on and you still can't reliably get through the pass, and even when you can there are paralyzing delays during any hour involving significant traffic.

Bounty Hunters and the Migrant


I guess we'll find out if bounty hunters are better at this than inadequately-trained ICE agents. 

In fairness, I'm pretty sure that cops usually kill a lot more citizens than bounty hunters do. In fact, while the police statistic runs to well over a thousand a year, I don't see any statistics suggesting that bounty hunters are likely to kill anyone at all. This makes sense. Bounty hunters aren't immune from prosecution. You can sue them for damages, too. 

This may actually work out even though it is a characteristically reckless move by DHS. If so it is a point in favor of voluntaryism -- even this may be better done by private citizens than by government agencies. 

Looking at Germany

The infamous European cordon sanitaire may collapse first in Germany rather than France. 
Voters were asked by pollsters on Sunday if they considered the AfD a danger to democracy, as Germany’s mainstream parties do. About half saw the AfD as a threat, according to exit polling released by a public television network. They voted almost exclusively for its rivals, from the far left to the center right.

The other half of voters said there was no threat.

Nearly all backed the AfD.

It was a vivid illustration of the growing divide between Germany’s mainstream parties, which govern from the center-right and the center-left, and populist voters who have grown convinced that politics as usual can no longer solve their urgent problems.... 

To the AfD’s supporters, particularly in the country’s economically struggling eastern states, the AfD has become a last, best shot for making their voices heard — a feeling only reinforced by governing parties’ refusal to work with it.

The AfD is weird: a predominantly east German party that has both pro-Russian and anti-Russian factions, depending I assume on how well one's ancestors got along with the East German republic; allegedly Nazis but led by a lesbian engaged in an interracial relationship with a foreigner. Germany's ruling coalition isn't sure how to respond. 

If they continue to have a Frankenstein coalition of communists-to-socialists-to-Christian-nationalists just to keep the plurality winner out of power, that's quite unstable and likely to be ineffective at governance. The fact that the ruling coalitions can't govern is an argument in favor of an alternative, which is what the "A" in "AfD" means.

If they break the cordon sanitaire and allow a populist 'far right' party to wield actual power -- is a vote total of 44% really compatible with the idea that this is 'far' right? -- it's a new game in Europe.

A Thoroughgoing form of Empiricism about Arithmetic

If that description doesn't light up your heart, you may not be the right reader for this new book.
Some of the logical empiricists defended the claim that the basic mathematical axioms are definitions and that the theorems of mathematics are consequently analytic. This position has subsequently fallen out of favor. Critics have alleged that the position was refuted by Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorems, that it is obscure what “analytic” and “definition” are supposed to mean, that there are no “analytic” truths, or that the axioms cannot be definitions. True by Definition revisits this debate. It introduces the distinction between analytic and synthetic truths and explains the controversy around the distinction in the philosophy of mathematics and beyond. The book also defends a radical new position. It is argued that, in certain contexts, the axioms of arithmetic have the status of definitions; however...

I don't want to spoil the suspense. I am of course immediately suspicious of the impulse to introduce the synthetic/analytic distinction. 

The author is a guy I know; he and his wife are both quality philosophers. Some of you might be into a work of philosophy of math.

Colby Acuff


I was a little surprised to learn that this young man apparently has no relation to Roy Acuff, the very famous Grand Ole Opry performer ("For drawing power in the South, it was Roy Acuff, then God"). Young Colby is not bad, and not traveling on a family name. About halfway into one of his standards, he transitions into a Hoyt Axton song that Elvis and Waylon Jennings covered as well. 

Nice to see a young man keeping up traditions. 

Search for the Real Killers


Since this just came up recently, the claim caught my eye. I don't know what AI was used in that claim that is going around on social media, but I ran it through Claude as follows: "Help me check this statistic that is going around: Women since the 191h Amendment have aborted 5-10 times as many babies as all the men have killed in all the wars and murders over the same time. Leaving aside all the ways in which the comparison is problematic,* does the statistic hold water as a bare factual claim?"

Claude has a more nuanced response than this one: 
Short answer: no. Not because it's too aggressive, but because it isn't a number that falls out of any consistent scoping. Depending on how you define the denominator, the true ratio is either three to six times *larger* than claimed, or less than 1.

**The numerator.** Cumulative U.S. abortions since Roe are reasonably well documented: roughly 66.1 million from 1973 through 2025, built from CDC surveillance and Guttmacher provider censuses. The widely circulated 63,459,781 figure comes from National Right to Life tracking the same two sources, current to about 2021. The 1920–1972 portion is the weak leg: the standard 1955 estimate of 200,000–1,200,000 illegal abortions per year rested on qualitative assumptions, and a range that wide over five decades means the pre-Roe addition could be anywhere from ~5 million to ~40 million. Call the full-period total 66–100 million with genuine uncertainty in the upper half.

**The denominator, U.S.-scoped.** Since the 19th Amendment is a U.S. fact, the natural like-for-like comparison is U.S. war deaths plus U.S. homicides:

| | Deaths |
|---|---|
| WWII | 405,399 |
| Korea | 36,574 |
| Vietnam | 58,220 |
| Gulf War | 382 |
| Iraq + Afghanistan + GWOT | ~7,100 |
| **All U.S. war deaths since 1920** | **~508,000** |
| U.S. homicides, 1920–2025 (est.) | ~1.5 million |
| **Total** | **~2.0 million** |

The homicide figure is mine, built from decade-average rates against decade-average population — roughly 9 per 100,000 in the Prohibition years, near 4.5–5.0 in the 1950s, a peak of 10.2 in 1980 and 9.8 in 1991, and 5–7 since. It's good to maybe ±15%, which doesn't matter at this scale.

That gives a ratio of about **32 to 1**, not 5–10 to 1. On its own terms the claim substantially understates itself.

**The other scoping.** If "all the wars" means all wars everywhere, the denominator explodes. WWII alone killed an estimated 70–85 million, and one aggregate estimate puts 20th-century war deaths near 110 million, with others running to 130–142 million including civilians. Add global homicides (~440,000/year currently, so tens of millions cumulative) and you're at roughly 120–160 million. Against 66 million U.S. abortions, abortions are the *smaller* number — ratio about 0.5. The claim fails in the opposite direction.

Global-versus-global lands back in the same neighborhood as the U.S. comparison: global induced abortions currently run about 73 million a year, so the cumulative figure is in the billions and the ratio is again in the tens.

**Verdict.** The "5–10x" is the one answer no consistent pairing produces. It reads like a hedge — someone with a sense that the number was very large, picking a multiplier that sounded defensible. If you want to use the underlying comparison, the U.S.-vs-U.S. version is the only internally coherent one, and the honest figure is roughly 30-to-1, with a caveat that the pre-1973 leg is an estimate resting on 1950s guesswork rather than data.

One measurement note that isn't just framing: homicide totals count victims, not male perpetrators. Since men commit roughly 88% of U.S. homicides, correcting for that shrinks the denominator slightly rather than growing it — it doesn't rescue the ratio.
Emphasis added. O.J. had nothing on this.

* There are many of these ways in which the comparison is problematic. In addition, the comparison leaves out justification entirely: some homicides are clearly justified and even proper, and some wars can be, and some abortions are on most ethical schema if they are necessary to save the life of the mother in a case where both the mother and child will otherwise die. (The exception is the Catholic standard of 'never actively choose and perform an evil action,' where the killing of an innocent is always evil; the Church argues that it is morally better not to take on performing the evil action even though it results in letting both die instead of saving the one who can be saved. I dissent from that teaching.) 

Still, here as elsewhere sorting out the problematic issues with the comparison doesn't save abortion's bacon. Even in an unjust war, the enemy one might have killed was probably trying to kill you; even in gang violence, the other gang likely was. The abortions not only happen on a vaster scale, they always target the morally innocent.