Median Strategies was created as a short-term social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification.Thank you for your understanding.
Believe me, the last thing they want is for people to understand what that means.
5 comments:
But other polls (Marquette, etc) found similar results.
I have a bunch of questions--starting with "Who selected the polls to report on?"
Yes, it's only a partial answer. However, it confirms the intuition that only fraud of some sort could explain the delta -- fraud is now confirmed here. (They also published fraudulent LA Mayor race surveys, where there were similar questions.)
So we still need to understand just how much fraud was involved, where it was located, and how it played out. That this wasn't a simple 'divergence' is now proven.
It would be interesting to measure polling outcomes in this way: a poll indicates major support for a political candidate, followed a couple weeks later by a series of polls, not necessarily simultaneous, but at least close in time--how did those subsequent polls rate the candidate?
Concurrently, another poll indicates large unfavorability for another candidate, followed a couple weeks later by a series of polls--how did this batch of subsequent polls rate this other candidate?
Eric Hines
James has the nugget: the Marquette Poll (NOT an info op) had Crowley at 5% or so just after he declared the first time. Hong was always ahead, by a wide margin, over ALL the other (D) candidates, though her numbers grew when a couple of others (like Crowley) dropped out.
IMHO the flaw was that the polls measured sentiment disconnected from the likelihood of voting. They may have ASKED "Will you vote for X"--but do not have a way to verify that promise. So the utterly-disaffected Left--largely the college bunch and some mixture of religio/ethnic "recent" Americans--won the polls. Meantime, the (D) Party poohbahs kicked the asses of its regulars, who actually showed up voting for Crowley.
But worthy of mention: the MSM's reporting on those "polls" is shameful--to the MSM. But there have been no apologies.
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