This is puzzling. An L.A. writers makes the reasonable case that the city's homeless population is a coronavirus explosion waiting to happen. The question is, why hasn't it exploded already? Is it really taking that long for the disease to spread to L.A.?
If it weren't for Italy's experience, I'd be more skeptical than I am that this thing is spreading as fast as we feared. Washington looked like a special case. New York is disquieting, though.
16 comments:
If we never tested, how many cases would there be, clearly identified?
Maybe the homeless are affected, but the data is lost in the background signal.
I want to know what is happening with the survivors. We keep hearing about the dead.
This is inversely similar to the story about reinforcing all the shot up bombers in the damaged areas, when someone pointed out the place they needed reinforcement was in the NON shot up areas, as those were clearly critical, as the one so damaged did not make it back to base. Same problem, inverted- the non affected , lightly affected and non symptomatic are not around "base" to be examined.
We are looking at the wrong data set.
Sunlight--UV--kills the virus on exposed surfaces, from skin to cardboard to concrete. Sunlight also stimulates the body's production of Vitamin D, which boosts our immune systems. I've read that LA's homeless are exposed to more sunlight than others--especially the "shelter in place" folks.
Plausible, but I've seen no evidence one way or another on that exposure idea.
Eric Hines
Why is Italy so bad? Why is LA’s homeless population so good? There’s a lot we don’t know.
I heard the alliance is using this to storm the cabal strongholds and bunkers deep underground.
I also have not seen anyone yet navigating using the south pointer of a compass.
They claim there is a south pole because authority and news told them it was so. Is it really? When has anyone ever used the south end of a north facing compass, to navigate or triangulate?
Sextants used the stars to navigate. South might as well not exist.
I can comprehend the fear online and around me. But i can no longer directly experience it as the peace that surpasses all understanding is difficult to give up. I choose not to.
Humans have to remind themselves not to fear too much. Even some here, who can see media manipulation, feel the rollercoaster ride.
If anyone wants to know what it is like being an empath, try to separate the world s emotions from your own now.
That is what it is like when i read comments that go out of their way to hide their true feelings, but i can pick it up as easily as watching the fear online now.
Grim - my swag on Italy and California
Old population - median age 47 (US is 38), one quarter are over 65.
Supposedly a large Chinese guest worker population. That's not clear but I've seen wide comments that they are one of the few European counties with direct flights to China and got tied into Belt and Road.
They ignored it too long, much longer than we did.
I've been looking at state level data. NY is getting hammered. Almost half of the C19 cases in the US and half of the new cases daily. Far out of proportion to population. My guess is that NY as well as Italy in February are in the sweet spot for this bug to community spread. Cool but not cold, keeps absolute humidity in the range it likes.
Look at numbers from Texas, Louisiana, and Florida. Proportionally they are low. Like Eric said, sunshine and humidity kill this thing.
California is likely somewhere in the middle. Density and bad conditions could favor community spread but the tempatures and other conditions just aren't right in the areas where homeless congregate.
One of Ann Althouse's commenters speculated that it's not the poorest neighborhoods that come into contact with recent world travelers.
Germany and France have essentially the same population structure and don't nearly have the same Wuhan Virus outcomes, at least not yet. The influx of PRC workers via Italy's B&R gullibility seems a more likely factor--and Italy is the only fully European nation to take a big bite of the PRC apple.
My suspicion (substantiated by not much more than my august hunches) is that Washington, California, and New York are the currently hardest hit States because they're communications and transportation hubs to the outside world. From that, though, I'm surprised Illinois and Texas haven't been harder hit because Chicago and Dallas fit that hub bill, too.
That may change, as might all the currently suspected hot areas, as accelerating testing identifies accelerating numbers of cases (which are not new cases, but only cases that have been present all along newly identified) and accelerating numbers of not-cases/not infecteds.
Aside: I only suggested sunlight. Humidity killing this virus seems counterintuitive; most things thrive in the wet.
Eric Hines
NY and Italy has something in common. Genetic sequences.
Eric - If I understand things I've read correctly, humidity tends to inhibit at least certain viruses, or affect their ability to spread. Their 'skin' only has so much ability to resist water penetration so higher humidity 'drowns' them, in a matter of speaking. For those that exist in our lung and nasal cavities, the lower absolute humidity of cooler air (and forced warmed air from central heating) improves the conditions. Ebola virus, on the other hand, looks like it's carried in body fluids so it probably has a higher tolerance for water.
It does seem strange, doesn't it? I intuitively assume that dry is clean, but that doesn't seem to hold true with many viruses, even respiratory ones, go figure. Every year about this time I start to feel a bit anxious about the end of winter, our tolerable season, and the approach of the giant flaming ball of summer. Not this time! Bring on the intolerable heat and humidity!
Texan 99
Every year about this time I start to feel a bit anxious about the end of winter, our tolerable season, and the approach of the giant flaming ball of summer. Not this time! Bring on the intolerable heat and humidity!
The summer my father died, I left torrid Texas for cool New England. I got a congestive cold in New England, which I blamed on the hospital's AC system. One restaurant we patronized must have had AC filters that hadn't been replaced in months, as I could barely breathe. Upon going outside, I could breathe once more.
I was glad to get back to 98 degrees in Texas. My congestion cleared up very quickly- baked out. (I don't use AC, so there wasn't an issue of bad AC filters back in Texas.)
...certain viruses, or affect their ability to spread. Their 'skin' only has so much ability to resist water penetration so higher humidity 'drowns' them, in a matter of speaking.
Yeah, it's useful to keep in mind that viruses aren't bacteria or fungi or molds or parasitic animals.
And I'm with Gringo. Mrs Hines' third son wasn't raised up to be cold. Not at all.
Eric Hines
I don’t mind the cold, but I’ve spent a lot of my life in the heat — in Georgia, Florida, and Iraq too. I’m not a huge fan.
I've been stationed above the Arctic Circle, on a mountain top in the RoK, in the RP, in Saudi Arabia, in the Florida panhandle.
Warm is better than cold, and hot is better yet.
Eric Hines
" it's not the poorest neighborhoods that come into contact with recent world travelers."
This. They're a whole sub culture unto themselves. People generally avoid them, proverbially speaking, like the plague.
I at least make eye contact and respond to them with "no" when they ask for donations. They're still humans.
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